Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

PAPPYDOG

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When was our passing offense with Romo ever 26th in the league ?

We were last in the league last year with pass attempts over 20 yards.

When did defenses ever stack the box with Romo?

Dak needs an All World OL and league leading RB to be effective.

Correct but they will insist no matter how many games our offense struggles that Dak is the guy.
Amazing stuff really here in Cowboy land.....

P.S. Get ready for there new excuses which will be (Drum roll please) we don't have a no 1 WR and a Stud TE.....they don't care about the Cowboys they care about DAK,DAK,DAK,DAK,......:facepalm:
 

Proof

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Anyone want to produce the total numbers vs pct's?

I'd have to imagine that Romo threw downfield considerably more (even if was less than other notable qb's) Volume matters when pct's stay consistent. Downfield throws = chunk gains, = game breaking opportunities. I'm glad to see Dak is consistent with Tony from a percentage standpoint, but I'd like to know if it's comparable from an overall quantity. That's not semantics either.
 

HellCrowe

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Its actually weird. I remember Romo being pretty average as far as QBs go, and then suddenly he just took it up a notch out of no where.

The thing is, we’re averaging two full season where he did great and then did meh... thus the percentages can be misleading
 

Diehardblues

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Correct but they will insist no matter how many games our offense struggles that Dak is the guy.
Amazing stuff really here in Cowboy land.....

P.S. Get ready for there new excuses which will be (Drum roll please) we don't have a no 1 WR and a Stud TE.....they don't care about the Cowboys they care about DAK,DAK,DAK,DAK,......:facepalm:
Cowboy fans need something to embrace . Dak provides them some hope in an otherwise hopeless situation. I wish him well. Our season and future is riding on him.
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Anyone want to produce the total numbers vs pct's?

I'd have to imagine that Romo threw downfield considerably more (even if was less than other notable qb's) Volume matters when pct's stay consistent. Downfield throws = chunk gains, = game breaking opportunities. I'm glad to see Dak is consistent with Tony from a percentage standpoint, but I'd like to know if it's comparable from an overall quantity. That's not semantics either.

I don't know what you mean or what it would do really?

You'd like to see how many times each pass was thrown, like total quantity for each yardage? We can safely assume that over Romo's 10+ yr career that he threw all of those passes a consideable amount more than Dak has to this point. What would all of that work prove?

Agree it creates game-breaking opportunities, and that's why Avion went through the trouble of stating how often they attempted them on a per attempt basis.
 

Aviano90

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So I think the problem with comparing stats is that first assumption is apples to apples.

We're really talking apples and oranges.

Dak is on a significantly better team than Romo had on average for his career.

Most QBs tend to have greater success throwing with a lead than trailing.

The presence of Elliott, this offensive line, and even this defense gives Prescott significant advantages Romo never had consistently through out his career.

I think that's what people are referring to when they say that stats can be misleading but what they experienced is night and day between the two quarterbacks.

You see it in their redzone efficiency and success, 3rd down conversion rating, down to their QB ratings in games lost.

It's not a comparison of who is better. The claim is that Dak just dinks and dunks the ball and doesn't throw the ball downfield. The comparison is to show that we throw the ball down the field about the same rate with Dak as we did with Romo and the completion %'s aren't that much different.
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Year 3. Are we still comparing? I thought you guys were sick of the comparisons?

Romo year 3 36 TDs 4200yards. You're up Dak.

Romo year 3 had 26 TDs to 14 INTs and 3448 yards.

You'll be satisfied with those #'s for Dak this year or no?
 
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HungryLion

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Romo year 3 had 26 TDs to 14 INTs and 3448 yards.

Nah. This is a lie.

Romo was a beast his entire career. He never struggled, never had bad games, didn’t improve over the length of his career. He played at his 2014 MVP level for his entire career from game 1.

Surprising you don’t remember this.
 

AdamJT13

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So I think the problem with comparing stats is that first assumption is apples to apples.

We're really talking apples and oranges.

Dak is on a significantly better team than Romo had on average for his career.

The only thing that was being compared in the OP was the frequency of passes thrown by distance and their completion percentage, showing that the lack of deep passes (and the lack of passes thrown behind the LOS) is most likely a function of the offensive system and/or the receivers and not any particular preference or abilities of the two quarterbacks.


Most QBs tend to have greater success throwing with a lead than trailing.

That's true in general, but it's misleading. Quarterbacks tend to have greater success in games that they win than they do in games that they lose -- and winning or losing typically depends on how much success they have (especially compared with how much success the opposing quarterback has). Quarterbacks also tend to have greater success against weaker opponents (making those games more likely to win) than they do against stronger opponents (making those games more likely to lose).

But quarterbacks that win a game typically are MOST effective throwing when they are trailing (107.4 passer rating over the past five years), followed by when they are tied (100.9), and LEAST effective when they have the lead (99.6). Likewise, quarterbacks that lose a game typically are MOST effective when they are trailing (77.5 passer rating), followed by when they are tied (75.1), and LEAST effective when they have the lead (70.6). So as you say, comparing apples to apples (the same quarterbacks in the same games), quarterbacks actually tend to have greater success throwing while trailing than while leading.

In other words, playing with a lead DOES NOT "make" a quarterback more effective -- on the contrary, having success in the first place (whether ahead, tied or trailing) is most likely WHY the quarterback is in the lead.
 

TwoDeep3

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I watched the next to last episode of All or Nothing. The one where Dak got hit on the hand by the guy's face mask. After he came back I started watching his passes. Then it made me think of his season.

A season in which he had:

two less than perfect left guards
the best left tackle in the game out at times
the number one receiver dropping balls
defenses doubling up on his statistically best receiver from the year before
his offensive rookie of the year miss six games
a defense that struggled at stopping the run
a defense that could not cover to stop Rodgers at the end of a game
a defensive end/tackle missing four games
teams changing how they face the cowboys now that they know Dak

I'm certain the list goes on

And with all this I saw Dak being a vocal leader, making good decisions, throwing the ball with authority when he had time, and keeping a positive mental attitude that he preached to the team in the huddle.

This was a seconds year player at the most difficult position in the game, with his security blanket (Romo) gone.

I'm not making excuses. What I am saying is perhaps the fan base needs to take a breath and remember this guy is starting his third year. I know we are all starved for success. The jury hasn't brought back a verdict on Dak as yet. Just sayin'.
 

Iago33

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Year 3. Are we still comparing? I thought you guys were sick of the comparisons?

Romo year 3 36 TDs 4200yards. You're up Dak.
Year 3 for Tony was his first year starting, wasn't it?
 

LocimusPrime

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(AIY) average intended yards and (CAY) average completed air yards are great next gen stats that show how vertical a teams passing game is. In this case we were 15th and 19th respectively.

Hey but stats are stats and people can twist them. I ain’t got time for that need to hit the gym
Laterzz
 

Aviano90

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Here’s a stat for Dak slobberers to chew on: under Dak “The Mad Bomber” Prescott, the Cowboys are 31st in the league in 20 yard pass plays since 2016:

http://pfref.com/tiny/GIERf

And to address this stat...

2016 - 30th in the league in total pass attempts
2017 - 29th in the league in total pass attempts.

Of course we are going to be low in the # of pass attempts in the 20 yard range. We're low in pass attempts period. I guess that is what happens when the following occurs:

1. We run the ball so much
2. We chew a lot of clock
3. Our defense allows the other offense to chew clock too
 

northerncowboynation

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It appears Cowboys fans have become fascinated with deep passing since Dak took over as QB. I have compiled the career totals for Dak and Romo using data obtained on ESPN under "Splits" for each QB. It will list the passing stats based upon distance thrown. Here is what the breakdown looks like for the 2 QBs showing the % of total passes thrown for each distance followed by the completion % at each distance.

Romo
Behind LOS - 15.5% of total passes; 79.2% completion percentage
1-10 yards - 51.8% of total passes; 71.5% completion percentage
11-20 yards - 22% of total passes; 54.8% completion percentage
21-30 yards - 6.6% of total passes; 39.6% completion percentage
31-40 yards - 2.9% of total passes; 36% completion percentage
41+ yards - 1.1% of total passes; 28.6% completion percentage

Dak
Behind LOS - 14.2% of total passes; 84.5% completion percentage
1-10 yards - 54.8% of total passes; 70.7% completion percentage
11-20 yards - 22.2% of total passes; 53.0% completion percentage
21-30 yards - 5.6% of total passes; 37.3% completion percentage
31-40 yards - 2.5% of total passes; 34.8% completion percentage
41+ yards - 0.8% of total passes; 28.6% completion percentage

Dak's numbers are not too far off from what Romo's were for his career. It's not like our offense has been a deep pass juggernaut that stopped when Dak became the QB.

Well it's a little hard to extrapolate Daks career to 8 years but the one that matters most is 24 years versus 37, zero shoulder or back surgeries at this point. Not to mention TD's running the ball. I would like to see these comparisons over their first two years. Even then it's difficult. Different O-lines although Tone's O-lines were good in his first two years. Despite the rhetoric on here that they weren't good teams.
 

Aviano90

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Let's see them for their first two years
I can provide the numbers for the first 2 years tomorrow. I know what they will show, but I am curious before I say anything. What are you guessing it will look like and how would that apply to the claims that Dak doesn't throw the ball down the field and is just a dink and dunk QB?
 
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