The effects of relying on unreliable people

[Bobhaze]

If they didn't draft Gregory they reportedly were going to pick a player at another position.

Picking Gregory didn't cause them to also pick Taco and it didn't cause the Taco pick to be disappointing.

Irvin is a completely different situation. He was free to acquire. No draft pick required.

The draft is about playing the odds (probability of success vs draft capital required to obtain).

Gregory's risk due to weed/emotional issues combined with his top 10 pick type talent results in a probability of success of:
character probability + talent probability.

A very simplistic example:

I'm just putting numbers in for example purposes. I have not tried to actually come up with accurate probability numbers.

I did use the estimated number for the probability of success of a normal 2nd round pick which one study listed as 49% (I rounded it up to 50%).

Gregory
Let's say
Talent=80%
Character=50%

Less talented 2nd round player with clean background check
Talent=50%
Character=80%

In this simple example I'm giving talent and character equal weighting. You can see that 80+50 is equal to 50+80.

Another area where Gregory and Irving differ is in terms of their intelligence and attitude/work-ethic (the non-drug related aspects of their mental makeup).

Gregory is very intelligent. If you listen to an interview of him he is very impressive. One of the most well spoken players on the current roster. He also has a great work-ethic at practice and Marinelli says he is very coachable.

Irving is the opposite. He is lazy and says he does not like football. In an interview he sounds like he has the IQ of a dim witted 5 year old child.

Obviously they were OK with the issues from Irving because he was "free" to acquire.

Gregory's red flag for weed/depression was a big red flag; however, he checked all of the other boxes in terms of positive attributes from both a top 10 type talent perspective and intelligence/work-ethic AND lack of injury issues.

Overall the probability of success for Gregory was similar to an average 2nd round type talent without the drug risks.

IMO teams need a mix of different types of probability combinations for player (i.e. elite talent with character risks or lesser talent with a better character assessment).

Charles Haley was a key part of the last 3 Cowboys Super Bowl teams but on a character risk assessment he was considered a huge risk vs the 2nd round pick they traded to get him.

Moose Johnston was super safe from a character perspective but he was not a top 5 player on those teams and not a Hall of Fame talent at one of the most critical positions like Haley.

Those SB teams had a mix of players like Haley and players like Johnston and various character/talent combinations in between.

I'm fine with taking a chance on Gregory. He was probably a lower risk than injury issue players like Jaylon and Sean Lee who were both 2nd round picks.

It’s not the taking a chance that’s the problem. The problem I’m talking about is hanging on to a guy too long after it’s clear you made a mistake.

 

[DandyDon52]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

well most here at FZ were happy they got gregory back in 2015, and no one said we should not have signed irving.
The deal is , just like the injured seahawk player, they are maybe signing now and jaylon, the jones boys like to get a good player
cheap, also collins was another one.
All they look at is the guys rep and stats, and they think they are getting a bargain and love it.

Now the jones boys and many others didnt think irving and RG would be so stupid as to not quit weed to make millions of dollars.
That is hard to relate to.
And once they mess up they still think they can fix them, and get something out of them.
Also they keep trying so it doesnt look like they were stupid to sign them to begin with, same as Garrett.

They have a long history of signing former good or players with names , in hopes of getting a bargain, like the purple drank LB,
forget his name, and even wheedon who was a former # 1 pick lol, they thought he had something due to when he was drafted.
So now this latest deal with head injury guy who has not played in years lol is the latest bargain player.
The jones boys cant help themselves they like trying to get a steal or bargain, even though most have not worked out good.

 

[Verdict]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

It is always a risk/reward analysis. We didn't draft Irving. He was a cast off we got for nothing. I don't blame the team for signing him. But they probably should have not kept him around this past season.

We got Jaylon on a risk/reward deal. But it was not a character issue.

But you can't always be swinging for the fences.

 

[Sarge]

I am in total agreement here. I am sick of the drafting/signing of players that are "projects" .

Heck, Jerry thinks it’s acceptable to have a project for a head coach (learning on the job).

 

[ghst187]

It’s also unwise for us to take chances on iffy players because we are in Goodells crosshairs for suspensions and any misstep, real or fabricated, will be dealt with harshly by that out of control, infantile, vindictive, tyrannical, egomaniacal jerk filled with Cowboy hatred.

 

[LovinItAll]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

You act as if this trend of 'unreliability' is unique to the Cowboys. News flash: It isn't. 2nd chances abound in the NFL. Some work out, some don't, most cost very little money. As for Taco, he looked like adecent pick at the time. You don't have to agree....the people that get paid to know these things said so at the time. Draft picks MUCH higher than Taco often fail to live up to expectations. It's part of game.

 

[Chuck 54]

The point is acccurate, but does it really apply to Dallas?

Yes, we gambled on Gregory......in the second round. It’s not like our team was built over the years in the second round, and despite the fact that we also found DLaw in round 2, it’s not like our problems would all be solved because we took a safer pick in round two instead of Gregory (pick 60 by the way).

We also gambled on Irving, but that was just money to sign him off someone’s practice squad.

Despite how things have developed on our DL, I don’t think we blew it with these two gambles.

 

[Blackrain]

Its all about Jerrys need to find players everyone passed over make them into stars and look like a football genius. Sometimes they pan out other times its a long painful misery ending in disappointment .

Jerry is a gambler now and forever ,to stay a fan you have to adjust your expectations accordingly, . For every Tony Romo and Jaylon Smith there is going to be a Gregory and Irving .
This just has an extra feel of catastrophe because our whole D line is spitting the bed in the same offseason , but we always knew as good as things looked on defense last season it could get just that bad and now it has .

So now Jerry has to pay for his gambling fix get off his wallet in FA and correct this mess if we are to move forward

 

[buybuydandavis]

But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.

Randy is back to being a lottery ticket, and there's no point in throwing those away.

And blaming the poor Taco pick on Randy doesn't make sense. If we had picked up a great DE instead, would you give the Randy pick credit for that great DE pick?

I think what we did with Randy is we picked like we didn't have him. Which would be the right thing with players with very questionable availability. Plan for them not being there, and treat any availability like gravy.

What sucked the most with Gregory is he went to pot (ha ha!) when he was suspended, instead of training to be ready to play when the suspension lifted. Could have spent the time developing his body, instead of atrophying it.

You're right that these risky picks have downsides. They have upsides too. We're seeing it with Jaylon now. Jerry was an oil guy. For good and bad, he's going to keep wildcatting. Sometimes he'll hit, sometimes he'll miss.

He may move from the headcases to more health risk. That's what his sports medicine center is for.

 

[InTheZone]

Irving was picked up off a practice squad and we never gave him a big contract. Gregory was a gamble with a 2nd round pick - so was Smith but nobody is complaining about that. Taco was just a bad pick. Wasted a 1st rounder on a bad player.

Many people didn't like the Smith pick. Gregory had bust written all over due to his stupidity. Taco just looked like a bust before he was drafted and still is.

 

[InTheZone]

It’s not the taking a chance that’s the problem. The problem I’m talking about is hanging on to a guy too long after it’s clear you made a mistake.

Teams do this all the time, especially after they draft a 1st round QB and sink themselves for 4+ years waiting too long to get rid of him.

 

[Whirlwin]

I hope thy stop drafting problem childs altogether,its just not worth it.If you break the law or use drugs banned by the NFL then you they should not draft them.

I had a post heading called most Worthy. Most people laugh they didn't understand. Thought I was making up the English language. This proves my point thank you. It's not always best player available it's not always drafting for need. And never take a guy with issues. I'm always drafting most worthy which is a combination of the three. We need more mr. Cowboys on this franchise

 

[Melonfeud]

One of the most important lessons any decent NFL front office understands is this: the most important ability after playing ability is RELIABILITY. The recent problems we are having trying to upgrade our talent at DL are directly related to Jerry’s foolish habit of relying on talented but unreliable players for too long.

In fact one of the cornerstones of building a championship team (or any organization of excellence) is the idea that you only build with reliable people. I believe in giving anyone a second chance. But not 4th, 5th chances. Being too accepting of unreliable people because of their potential is a cancer if you let it stick around.

When the Cowboys drafted Randy Gregory in 2015 with their 2nd round pick, it was well known that he had major problems with bipolar depression, weed and alcohol. I don’t knock Randy Gregory for that. He has major life challenges that are way more important than football. But the Cowboys have had 4 seasons to decide on what he is and it’s way past time to say goodbye. RG has now been suspended four times, the latest being indefinite. This isn’t three strikes, it’s four.

David Irving is another guy with a checkered past that we counted on for three seasons because of his enormous talent. But like Randy Gregory his off the field habits and problems could not keep him from being suspended. After his latest suspension, the FO finally said enough is enough.

But look at the effects of relying on the unreliable:

• Caused us to Draft Taco Charleton in 2017- a guy we probably wouldn’t have taken had we already said bye to RG, or maybe if we had never drafted RG in the first place.
• We are currently trying to make a deal (and use needed cap space) to acquire a guy like Robert Quinn because of no RG and/or DI. Cause and effect.
• If we end up using cap space to solve the lack of DE help, it may have effects with cap space for some other players we need and want to keep.

The bottom line is this: This Owner/GM/FO’s willingness to give talented players with multiple suspensions and consistent off field problems too many chances has a ripple effect on how you draft and address free agency.

It’s ok to give second chances to talented people. But stop there. Or you will be creating new problems rather than solving current ones.

Yessir @Bobhaze ,for that of which you factually speak of is beyond apparent by now ,to one & all ,,,( er,,, well at least to those who don't have to continually chime in about how they lost their decoder ring during foreplay while milking Julio's goat, or ,of those who enjoy the fartin'+belching combined posting maneuver of their maximized strained-brained efforts of the singular worded post of
"WuT/what?" ,ya, other than the current membership enrolled in those existing clod crowds? All the rest are easily seeing what's being espoused in this thread of your's)

 

[Bobhaze]

You act as if this trend of 'unreliability' is unique to the Cowboys. News flash: It isn't. 2nd chances abound in the NFL. Some work out, some don't, most cost very little money. As for Taco, he looked like adecent pick at the time. You don't have to agree....the people that get paid to know these things said so at the time. Draft picks MUCH higher than Taco often fail to live up to expectations. It's part of game.

Again...it’s not the taking of chances that’s the problem. As I said in the OP, I believe in 2nd chances. But 4? 5? That’s the problem I’m referencing.

 

[Bobhaze]

Teams do this all the time, especially after they draft a 1st round QB and sink themselves for 4+ years waiting too long to get rid of him.

That doesn’t make it smart.

 

[Diehardblues]

Again...it’s not the taking of chances that’s the problem. As I said in the OP, I believe in 2nd chances. But 4? 5? That’s the problem I’m referencing.

What’s the problem? While he’s suspended he’s not taking a roster spot.

Actually the problem is taking a chance because like with Gregory we wasted a 2nd round pick which could have produced someone who contributes.

Once you take that chance then your invested to ride it out hoping to minimize the risk and potential waste of a key pick.

 

[Verdict]

You made some good points. I admit that I was one that really questioned Jaylon Smith high 2nd rnd pick. Here was a guy that nobody new 100% that he would ever be able to play again let alone play at a high level. There have others who have had the very same thing who walk with a limp years after surgery. I said that it was way to high of a pick to waste on someone like that. It appears that I may have been wrong about his being able to play good. I still say that even if he turns out to be really good that using a high 2nd rnd pick on a player that takes 3 years to get there is having to wait to long for that pick. High 2nd rnd picks are expected to be starters and contributors their rookie season.
.

I agree, yet some are still willing to give Taco a pass, after the fact and he was drafted even higher than Jaylon. Jaylon does seem to be all that and a bag of chips now. Taco would have to play at almost Ware level to justify the first round pick value before the end of his first contract.

 

[Diehardblues]

I agree, yet some are still willing to give Taco a pass, after the fact and he was drafted even higher than Jaylon. Jaylon does seem to be all that and a bag of chips now. Taco would have to play at almost Ware level to justify the first round pick value before the end of his first contract.

Why would he need to play at Ware level to justify the pick? He wasn’t a high 1st round pick.

 

[Verdict]

Why would he need to play at Ware level to justify the pick? He wasn’t a high 1st round pick.

To average out his "suckage" from the first half of his contract.

 

[morasp]

Don't give up on Taco yet, plenty of DL take time to develop.

The OP is taking two examples when most teams have a dozen. We never "relied" on Irving because we acquired him for free and he was always a rotational player. Romo was a guy we "relied on" and 2015 tanked when he got hurt. We still won a playoff game when Irving was effectively off the roster.

Randy Gregory was obvioiusly a gamble but we got a guy with the talent of a top five pick at the end of the second round and it could work out quite well. If I could buy a lottery ticket for $20 that had a 30% chance of paying me $200 - I would buy one every day.

People were whining about Lawrence until his third year.