Bobhaze
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It’s not the taking a chance that’s the problem. The problem I’m talking about is hanging on to a guy too long after it’s clear you made a mistake.If they didn't draft Gregory they reportedly were going to pick a player at another position.
Picking Gregory didn't cause them to also pick Taco and it didn't cause the Taco pick to be disappointing.
Irvin is a completely different situation. He was free to acquire. No draft pick required.
The draft is about playing the odds (probability of success vs draft capital required to obtain).
Gregory's risk due to weed/emotional issues combined with his top 10 pick type talent results in a probability of success of:
character probability + talent probability.
A very simplistic example:
I'm just putting numbers in for example purposes. I have not tried to actually come up with accurate probability numbers.
I did use the estimated number for the probability of success of a normal 2nd round pick which one study listed as 49% (I rounded it up to 50%).
Gregory
Let's say
Talent=80%
Character=50%
Less talented 2nd round player with clean background check
Talent=50%
Character=80%
In this simple example I'm giving talent and character equal weighting. You can see that 80+50 is equal to 50+80.
Another area where Gregory and Irving differ is in terms of their intelligence and attitude/work-ethic (the non-drug related aspects of their mental makeup).
Gregory is very intelligent. If you listen to an interview of him he is very impressive. One of the most well spoken players on the current roster. He also has a great work-ethic at practice and Marinelli says he is very coachable.
Irving is the opposite. He is lazy and says he does not like football. In an interview he sounds like he has the IQ of a dim witted 5 year old child.
Obviously they were OK with the issues from Irving because he was "free" to acquire.
Gregory's red flag for weed/depression was a big red flag; however, he checked all of the other boxes in terms of positive attributes from both a top 10 type talent perspective and intelligence/work-ethic AND lack of injury issues.
Overall the probability of success for Gregory was similar to an average 2nd round type talent without the drug risks.
IMO teams need a mix of different types of probability combinations for player (i.e. elite talent with character risks or lesser talent with a better character assessment).
Charles Haley was a key part of the last 3 Cowboys Super Bowl teams but on a character risk assessment he was considered a huge risk vs the 2nd round pick they traded to get him.
Moose Johnston was super safe from a character perspective but he was not a top 5 player on those teams and not a Hall of Fame talent at one of the most critical positions like Haley.
Those SB teams had a mix of players like Haley and players like Johnston and various character/talent combinations in between.
I'm fine with taking a chance on Gregory. He was probably a lower risk than injury issue players like Jaylon and Sean Lee who were both 2nd round picks.