Projected Contract for Dak - 6 years, $171M with $45M SB, and $90M Guaranteed

BrassCowboy

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He's not worth that type of money. I rather go through pains of finding a new QB then to be stuck with an "average, but paid like I'm an elite" QB
I want to like this comment so badly.... I think he is slightly better than average and most of that is based on stats and opinion, but absolutely not elite. not just too much moiney for Dak, but WAY too much money for him.

so my guess is I this is your "like"
 

percyhoward

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I’d keep the whole team together and draft qbs until I found a good one.
We're talking about a team that tried to trade into a position to draft Paxton Lynch, and then Connor Cook. Same GM -- and same guy who's paid like a GM but without the title -- making the decisions. Dak is the 8th-highest rated passer over his three seasons. The percentage play is to try to keep him and hope he doesn't ask for the moon.
 

Hadenough

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At the minimum, Dak will make $28M per season. He's done more than Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kirk Cousins, and deserves to be better paid than any of those players. Let's say, 6 years, 171M - an average of $28.5M, with a $45M signing bonus, and $90M guaranteed over the first 3 seasons.

2019 - $45M signing bonus, $3M salary = $12M Salary CAP hit - $90M Dead Money
2020 - $20M Restructure Bonus, $1M salary = $14M Salary CAP hit - $78M Dead Money
2021 - $21M Salary = $34M Salary CAP hit - $64M Dead Money
2022 - $23M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $30M Dead Money - 4th year out, save $6M against CAP
2023 - $23M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $17M Dead Money - 5th year out, save $19M against CAP
2024 - $32M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $4M Dead Money - 6th year out, save $32M against CAP

DAK gets paid $69M over first two seasons - an average of $34.5M per season. He is guaranteed $90M over first 3 seasons, an average of $30M per season. The Cowboys defer the CAP hits on Dak for years 1 & 2 of the contract, but can decide to eat the 3rd year, and after that, they can actually save money against the CAP by cutting Dak.

Even at a CAP hit of $36M per season, the Salary CAP is expected to be around $220M in 2022, so that is only 16% of the overall Salary CAP - which is about right for a top QB. If Dak fails to continue to improve, then the Cowboys have an out in Year 4. But if he wins a Super Bowl or two over the next 6 years, while the top QB contracts rise to about $45M per season, the Cowboys will have made a bargain deal.
Dak is not better than Stafford or Cousins! Both Stafford and Cousins have passed for more yards on lesser teams. Cousins has been a 4k yd passer the last 4 years. You put those QBs on Dallas and the Cowboys are better team than with Dak. If Dak gets that kind of money we can all forget about doing anything more than winning regular season games.
 

Techsass

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We're talking about a team that tried to trade into a position to draft Paxton Lynch, and then Connor Cook. Same GM -- and same guy who's paid like a GM but without the title -- making the decisions. Dak is the 8th-highest rated passer over his three seasons. The percentage play is to try to keep him and hope he doesn't ask for the moon.
We seem to luck into our QBs. I don't know if it's an institutional deficiency or not. Romo & now Dak are going to keep us from taking the Philly/LA route to finding our next QB.

Of course that might also be why we stay just on the verge, but never quite reach the summit.
 

Hadenough

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We seem to luck into our QBs. I don't know if it's an institutional deficiency or not. Romo & now Dak are going to keep us from taking the Philly/LA route to finding our next QB.

Of course that might also be why we stay just on the verge, but never quite reach the summit.
I wouldn't exactly call it luck! Having a QB that's just good enough to prevent you from searching for a true franchise QB is more of a handicap!
 

blueblood70

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At the minimum, Dak will make $28M per season. He's done more than Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kirk Cousins, and deserves to be better paid than any of those players. Let's say, 6 years, 171M - an average of $28.5M, with a $45M signing bonus, and $90M guaranteed over the first 3 seasons.

2019 - $45M signing bonus, $3M salary = $12M Salary CAP hit - $90M Dead Money
2020 - $20M Restructure Bonus, $1M salary = $14M Salary CAP hit - $78M Dead Money
2021 - $21M Salary = $34M Salary CAP hit - $64M Dead Money
2022 - $23M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $30M Dead Money - 4th year out, save $6M against CAP
2023 - $23M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $17M Dead Money - 5th year out, save $19M against CAP
2024 - $32M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $4M Dead Money - 6th year out, save $32M against CAP

DAK gets paid $69M over first two seasons - an average of $34.5M per season. He is guaranteed $90M over first 3 seasons, an average of $30M per season. The Cowboys defer the CAP hits on Dak for years 1 & 2 of the contract, but can decide to eat the 3rd year, and after that, they can actually save money against the CAP by cutting Dak.

Even at a CAP hit of $36M per season, the Salary CAP is expected to be around $220M in 2022, so that is only 16% of the overall Salary CAP - which is about right for a top QB. If Dak fails to continue to improve, then the Cowboys have an out in Year 4. But if he wins a Super Bowl or two over the next 6 years, while the top QB contracts rise to about $45M per season, the Cowboys will have made a bargain deal.
might be reality but I say I disagree he hasn't done more than cousins and Stafford but hes in the 25-28 range..QBs first and foremost needs to excel at their qB postion, thats throwing the football and Cousins last year everyone ripping him 30-10 and Stafford has put up 4k-5k passing season many times, those are Romo type players, no team success but they are at least showing their skill level in production from their positions..

Dak has more been succeeding with the TEAM around him but AVG at his position especially the big passing numbers.. so he has to be looked at in that 10-15 range of pay in whatever order and argument the FO wants tpo comp I say hes should be more at 27 avg at best but ive always said those guys you mentioned were overpaid and IDK about the market they all should be at 22-25 not 27-30 and maybe the Cowboys given our Tax and Real estate market as well as Daks ability for endorsements, he should take 25-26 this contract..
If im the FO thats what I force on him, he declines let him play for 2mil this season :)) then if he plays super well shows more progress sign him for that 28030 next season of FT tag him.. there no rush imo regardless of market going up id do the Cousins structure that Washington did that way no dead money of they decide to cut ties..
 

percyhoward

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In his career isn't Dak in the top 5 winning QB's?
Here's the problem with using team stats to judge individual performance: The team stat doesn't tell you how much of the success was due to the player and how much was due to the team. Trent Dilfer was once 22-4 as a starter over a 3-year period.

QB Win%, 1999-2001
1 Dilfer .846
2 Warner .800

Passer rating, 1999-2001
1 Warner 101.6
15 Dilfer 79.9
 

HungryLion

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Dak is not better than Stafford or Cousins! Both Stafford and Cousins have passed for more yards on lesser teams. Cousins has been a 4k yd passer the last 4 years. You put those QBs on Dallas and the Cowboys are better team than with Dak. If Dak gets that kind of money we can all forget about doing anything more than winning regular season games.

Yes yes indeed. Total passing yards is the best way to evaluate how good as QB is.

How many games do you need to see Stafford piss away by throwing terrible interceptions to understand the type of player he is?

How many times do we need to see Cousins throw away a game late in the 4th quarter?
 

glimmerman

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Here's the problem with using team stats to judge individual performance: The team stat doesn't tell you how much of the success was due to the player and how much was due to the team. Trent Dilfer was once 22-4 as a starter over a 3-year period.

QB Win%, 1999-2001
1 Dilfer .846
2 Warner .800

Passer rating, 1999-2001
1 Warner 101.6
15 Dilfer 79.9
Both won SB. But I understand what your saying.
 

Beast_from_East

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He's not worth that type of money. I rather go through pains of finding a new QB then to be stuck with an "average, but paid like I'm an elite" QB

$28 million is not for elite QBs anymore...………...that is what above average QBs like Grappolo, Stafford, Cousins get.

If you are an elite QB, then you get $30-$35 like Russel Wilson just did.
 

percyhoward

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These are the top 8 in passer rating over three-year periods since 2010.

2016-18
Ryan Brees Brady Rodgers
Wilson Cousins Prescott Rivers

2015-17
Brady Brees Ryan Rodgers
Wilson Cousins Smith Stafford

2014-16
Rodgers Brady Ryan Brees
Wilson Cousins Roethlisberger Palmer

2013-15
Rodgers Wilson Brees Rivers
Manning Roethlisberger Brady Smith

2012-14
Rodgers Manning Romo Brees
Wilson Rivers Roethlisberger Ryan

2011-13
Rodgers Manning Brees Brady
Romo Rivers Smith Ryan

2010-12
Rodgers Brady Brees Manning
Romo Ryan Rivers Roethlisburger
 

glimmerman

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Well done!
Jumbo for Pres.. I mean GM. Lol

28 million will look average in a couple years and like the option in year 4 to release if hasn’t worked out. 6 years should be enough evidence for us.
28 is almost a steal now. Lol. I do think if he plays out his rookie deal that he will get 30+ next year. I don’t think he gets worse. If anything with a health O-Line and Cooper and Gallup full year he will look better. Unless Moore screws the pooch.
 

Beast_from_East

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A lot of people dont seem to understand market dynamics.

The price of a commodity on the open market is what a buyer is willing to pay for that commodity. So how do you know what a buyer will pay? You look at other commodities that are similar in appearance, quality, or functionality and see what buyers paid for those commodities to get a sense of what your commodity will sell for.

To relate this from the finance world to the football world, Dak's value is what another team would be willing to pay for him on the open market. That value can be determined by looking at similar QBs around the league in terms of production, years starting, ect….and seeing what they signed for. Its called "pricing by comparables"...………….how do you think homes get priced in the real estate market, same thing.

So if you look around the league, price by comparables, and run the numbers its not terribly difficult to see Dak's value on the open market being between $25-$29 million. That is what another team would most likely be willing to pay Dak on the open market, hence that is the value Dallas will use to negotiate a new contract.
 

dfense

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Worth every penny. Wrap up the franchise stud for 6 year would be amazing.
Imagine if they pay Dak like a SB QB, then the Cowboys go 7-9, Dak throws like only 20 TDs the whole season again, but Zeke has like a thousand carries again. Zeke's going to start getting pissed off watching Dak get as much per season as he's made his whole career. And I would not blame him.
 

Diehardblues

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28 is almost a steal now. Lol. I do think if he plays out his rookie deal that he will get 30+ next year. I don’t think he gets worse. If anything with a health O-Line and Cooper and Gallup full year he will look better. Unless Moore screws the pooch.
What if we don’t sign Elliott?
 
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