Projected Contract for Dak - 6 years, $171M with $45M SB, and $90M Guaranteed

[percyhoward]

I don’t care about rating and completion percentage for a QB that rarely pulls the trigger down field. Any objection person knows his stats are skewed by his constant check downs.

That's not the case, although it's probably a common misconception. The shorter throws (9 yards or less) actually hurt his passer rating. Here's 2018 including playoffs:

Target < 10 yards
Prescott
309 of 382 80.9% 2511 yd 6.6 ypa 9 td 2 int 99.7
Brees
316 of 372 84.9% 2343 yd 6.3 ypa 21 td 2 int 109.4
Brady
341 of 431 79.1% 2877 yd 6.7 ypa 11 td 8 int 95.3
Ryan
303 of 368 82.3% 2426 yd 6.6 ypa 16 td 2 int 106.3
Mahomes
300 of 364 82.4% 2624 yd 7.2 ypa 24 td 1 int 117.5

Target 10+ yards
Prescott
89 of 175 50.9% 1866 yd 10.7 ypa 15 td 7 int 100.7
Brees
102 of 169 60.4% 2199 yd 13.0 ypa 15 td 5 int 121.7
Brady
119 of 222 53.6% 2431 yd 11.0 ypa 20 td 6 int 111.1
Ryan
119 of 209 56.9% 2498 yd 12.0 ypa 19 td 5 int 119.6
Mahomes
126 of 231 54.5% 3046 yd 13.2 ypa 29 td 11 int 119.3

 

[Cowboys22]

So, you would be happy with a one year cap hit of $30 million? Including both years adds up on paper as $16 million, but it's the cap # that's more important. Lop off $30 million of the cap for 2020 hurts the team. It's the reason the FO is trying to sign Dak and Cooper; besides talent, it helps the team by spreading the cap hit over X years, not just one.

Everyone understands all that but at the end of the day I’m not committing that kind of money long term to Dak Prescott as he is today. I need to see much more. Yes, that cap hit would hurt but it’s only for one year and I already stated my preference would be that somebody takes him off my hand for at least a 1st and 3rd and I go QB hunting in every draft until I find one. With the money It now takes to sign a QB, even a mediocre one that no one knows whether or not will ever be good enough to win a super bowl, it won’t surprise me at all to see the new norm for many teams become only have QBs on their rookie deal and then let them go and get another one.

 

[atlantacowboy]

But the total is probably pretty close
I think more like 100 mil of it over first 4 years and most of the big numbers later so you can get out in 4 yrs
But I do think around that 28 mil per yr is gonna be close

Lets hope that is not the case and Dallas is smarter. He's still got a year on his rookie deal and we can franchise him. So, basically we can have him for an average of around 13 million per year over the next 2 seasons.

OR, we can fork over some ridiculous amount of money right now............for a guy that hasn't won anything. The only urgency to sign him is coming from Stephen Jones. There is no rationale for paying him like a guy whose lead his team to a super bowl.

 

[atlantacowboy]

What do you think he ends up getting, then?

I don't think he should be making more than Andrew Luck or Nick Foles. Dak has not thrown for 30 TD's or broken the 4k passing mark in his career nor has he won a divisional round playoff game. Why pay him like one of those guys??

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Not quite a top 10 defense yet either, but above average last season.

points per drive
2018 13th
2017 17th
2016 13th

yards per drive
2018 14th
2017 25th
2016 23rd

drive success rate
% of opp down series resulting in 1st down
2018 15th
2017 25th
2016 22nd

defensive passer rating
2018 23rd
2017 27th
2016 24th

You ate correct. I don’t want to hear about how good this defense is until they generate turnovers and sacks.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

QBs of Daks talent level can be signed for 2-5m per year on short term deals. The fact that Dallas is not in a position to acquire a franchise QB right now is not a valid excuse for offering franchise QB money.

Dak is under contract for 2019. Lets play the season and see where we are next January.

You are enjoying 420 I see.....don’t hurt yourself and stay safe.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I don't think he should be making more than Andrew Luck or Nick Foles. Dak has not thrown for 30 TD's or broken the 4k passing mark in his career nor has he won a divisional round playoff game. Why pay him like one of those guys??

Because he is better than those guys.

 

[Beast_from_East]

That’s a subjective argument . Dak has been on a better team at least in 2 of his seasons.

I’d argue Stafford , Carr and Cousins are all more prolific passers. Garrapolo we haven’t seen much but his potential appears to be greater.

I’m not sure Dak would have had the same success in Wash, Det or Oak for example.

Stafford has never won a playoff game...……….in fact, he has been to the playoffs just 3 times in 10 years with an 0-3 record.

Cousins has never won a playoff game...……….in fact, as a starting QB he is 0-1 in the playoffs and never won more than 9 games ever.

Grappolo has never won a playoff game...……..in fact, he has just 10 career starts.

There is no way you can make the argument to Dak's agent that he should be paid less than these guys, he will laugh in your face.

 

[Beast_from_East]

It was 4-12 the year before only because Romo went down as were 3-1 before his injury. And was 12-4 the year before winning a playoff game. You’re spinning facts now to support your narrative.

No one really believes the 4-12 reflected the talented level of that team. We just didn’t have any type of backup QB. Dak finally provided the best back up we’d had in this era.

You would think with all of this elite talent on the roster you speak of that your boy Garrett could win something more than a dam Wildcard game, but that appears to be his ceiling.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Its a stupid argument.

It’s a simple argument that’s going over you guys head.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Stafford has never won a playoff game...……….in fact, he has been to the playoffs just 3 times in 10 years with an 0-3 record.

Cousins has never won a playoff game...……….in fact, as a starting QB he is 0-1 in the playoffs and never won more than 9 games ever.

Grappolo has never won a playoff game...……..in fact, he has just 10 career starts.

There is no way you can make the argument to Dak's agent that he should be paid less than these guys, he will laugh in your face.

Yeah Stafford is a stat padder but there is no argument to say Dak should get worse than what Jimmy it Cousins got.

 

[TwentyOne]

It’s a simple argument that’s going over you guys head.

Well who knows.

Think about it over the weekend. If you dont understand it then come back and ask me again. I'll give you some reasons.

 

[TwentyOne]

Sure. Are we spending our #2 pick on a backup QB now? The hit rate on late round QBs is laughable.

Cyber, you can go with that argumentation every year.

You have to put in some resources on that position.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Well who knows.

Think about it over the weekend. If you dont understand it then come back and ask me again. I'll give you some reasons.

You are the confused one. I understood his point. Anyone that didn’t simply didn’t want to.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Cyber, you can go with that argumentation every year.

You have to put in some resources on that position.

It’s moronic.

 

[TwentyOne]

You are the confused one. I understood his point. Anyone that didn’t simply didn’t want to.

Well. I did understand his point. But it is not thought thru. Go give yourself some time as i said. I will explain it to you if you dont get it by Tuesday (long weekend because of eastern holidays).

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Well. I did understand his point. But it is not thought thru. Go give yourself some time as i said. I will explain it to you if you dont get it by Tuesday (long weekend because of eastern holidays).

Nobody is wasting two days on your explanation. Either you get it or you don’t.

 

[charron]

Over pay Dak for 4 years so he is underpaid or unemployed for years 4 or 5. Great.

 

[percyhoward]

You ate correct.

It was actually pizza and a donut with a Red Bull, so I'll take whatever support I get.

 

[Flamma]

DAK gets paid $69M over first two seasons - an average of $34.5M per season. He is guaranteed $90M over first 3 seasons, an average of $30M per season. The Cowboys defer the CAP hits on Dak for years 1 & 2 of the contract, but can decide to eat the 3rd year, and after that, they can actually save money against the CAP by cutting Dak.

The beef I have with this is the part where Dallas is saving money. Having a 30 million cap hit and nothing to show for it is not a good thing. As opposed to spending another 6M and having a very good QB. You're more or less describing a disaster than a savings. And it's not even the full 6 million saved because someone else has to play the position. They get paid too.