Projected Contract for Dak - 6 years, $171M with $45M SB, and $90M Guaranteed

[OmerV]

I love the way people are discounting the fact that Zeke was added the same year with Dak but they want give Dak credit for all those wins. Plus this defense right now is the best it's been in 12 years.

Of course Dak had Zeke, and didn’t do it alone, but Romo had a phenomenal year from Murray in 2014, so he didn’t do it alone either.

And I didn’t give Dak sole credit for the wins - I was responding to a comment about the Cowboys having a strong team that failed in 2015 due to lack of QB play, so I was talking about getting strong QB contributions in 2014 and 2016 to go with the strong core.

 

[bsbellomy]

Who is the next guy?

I don't know what to tell you. Go watch some football yourself. My guess is Tua, Herbert, or Lawrence could give at least what we are getting from the position now.

 

[bsbellomy]

You act like it's easy to just draft a quality QB in this league.

All you need to replace is average. If you do better then that's a bonus.

 

[TwentyOne]

You guys are missing his point. He’s saying it won’t be elite money in a few years lol.

Its a stupid argument.

 

[bsbellomy]

The going rate was set a year ago when Cousins and Garappolo signed contracts for $27M and $27.5M per season. Both of them haven't accomplised as much as Dak has in his career. Add a year of inflation, and $28.5M per season is a reasonable figure for an unproven young QB. I'm not saying I like it. I'm saying that $28.5M per season is the market rate.

The Cowboys are going to have to commit to Dak for at least 3 more seasons. They don't have a plan B right now. And the longer they wait to lock him up long term, the higher the price is going to be.

First, I don't think there is a whole lot of wisdom in following a strategy that has proven to lead to mediocrity. Second, we have at least 2 years with the franchise tag. With a halfway competent FO that should certainly be enough time to create a plan B.

 

[bsbellomy]

Russell Wilson just reset the market for "elite" at $35 million. 28 will be considered cheap very soon.

And Nick Foles set the mid tier level.

This literally came out of none other than Stephen Jones's mouth recently when comparing Dak to top QB's "You're talking about two guys there between Rodgers and between Russell Wilson that have won Super Bowls, that have had success year-in and year-out, taking their teams to the playoffs,"

 

[TwentyOne]

You act like it's easy to just draft a quality QB in this league.

Its not easy. Like its not easy to find a great player at any position.

But his point was a different one. And whats more even if its hard to find a good QB you at least have to try it. Its not like we did this the last 12 years.

Nobody is sure if dak can really be a franchise qb. Why put yourself under pressure ? Lets try find a wb who could replace him. Lets have a backup plan at the most important position of the game. How about that ?!

 

[percyhoward]

More on the 3-player comparison mentioned above. This is all 2016-18.

Garbage Time (trailing)
Attempts while trailing by more than one score in 4th qtr of loss
attempts
2 Cousins 225
3 Stafford 205
23 Prescott 125

yards
2 Cousins 1510
4 Stafford 1434
22 Prescott 799

passer rating
7 Cousins 97.5
14 Stafford 85.3
29 Prescott 69.4

yards per attempt
9 Stafford 7.0
13 Cousins 6.7
25 Prescott 6.4

Comp%
3 Cousins 70.7%
13 Prescott 63.2%
17 Stafford 61.0%

TD / INT
Cousins 12 / 5
Stafford 12 / 8
Prescott 3 / 6

Normal situation
All attempts when NOT trailing by more than one score
(margin between 8 points behind and infinite points ahead)
attempts
6 Prescott 1,354
8 Stafford 1,305
9 Cousins 1,288

yards
6 Prescott 10,178
8 Cousins 9,897
9 Stafford 9,454

passer rating
8 Prescott 99.3
10 Cousins 96.3
13 Stafford 94.8

yards per attempt
8 Cousins 7.7
12 Prescott 7.5
15 Stafford 7.2

Comp%
7 Prescott 66.5%
8 Cousins 66.1%
9 Stafford 66.1%

TD / INT
Prescott 66 / 19
Stafford 53 / 19
Cousins 59 / 25

So there's a definite garbage-time factor that affects all three players' numbers, but in decidedly different ways, and to decidedly different degrees. Cousins' TD-INT ratio when trailing by more than one score in the 4th quarter of a loss is almost identical to his ratio in normal situations. His garbage-time completion percentage is actually much higher than in normal situations. So even his passer rating is higher.

Stafford's passer rating goes down by almost 10 points, (9.1 points lower is normal), while Dak's goes down 30 points.

15+yard targets as a percentage of total attempts
normal situation vs (trailing in 4th qtr)
NFL avg 18.0% (19.3%)
Cousins 16.2% (13.0%)
Prescott 15.9% (17.8%)
Stafford 14.2% (21.7%)

In the above comparison, "normal" means any time in the game when NOT trailing by more than one score. On average then, 18% of the league's pass attempts are targeted 15+ yards past the line of scrimmage in normal situations (82% are targeted somewhere short of that point).

When trailing in the 4th, you expect your QB to take deeper shots, with the caveat that many of these attempts are against prevent defenses designed to stop exactly that. In that situation, there's a 1.3% increase in 15+yard targets league-wide. Dak takes more deeper shots at a slightly higher rate increase than the rest of the league. Stafford's increase is much sharper. Cousins actually becomes more conservative when trailing in the 4th -- which results in a higher completion percentage and a better passer rating for him, even though these numbers mean practically nothing for his team. He's the league's foremost stat-padder when trailing by more than one score late, and he's awful when tied or trailing late by less than that. Got a real nice contract though.

4th qtr/OT, tied or trailing by one score or less
passer rating
1 Prescott 110.5
13 Stafford 91.2
22 Cousins 78.7

yards per attempt
6 Prescott 8.5
8 Stafford 7.8
16 Cousins 7.4

Comp%
9 Stafford 64.0%
11 Prescott 63.6%
12 Cousins 62.0%

TD / INT
Prescott 13 / 1
Stafford 8 / 5
Cousins 6 / 7

 

[Vintage]

Those are garbage numbers pulled out of your butt.

What do you think he ends up getting, then?

 

[DeaconBlues]

Yes. After him playing for $2 million this year, I’d franchise him hoping someone would sign him and I would get multiple picks back in return. If he signed the franchise tag, I could still trade him but I would be fine paying him that for one more year. That would be $32 million for the next two years. I’m fine paying him that to see where he is at in two years. What I’m not fine with is paying him $28 million for the next 6 years and have him never get any better. Seeing what he becomes in the next two years for an average of $16 million a year or getting two nice picks for him next year is the path I would take.

So, you would be happy with a one year cap hit of $30 million? Including both years adds up on paper as $16 million, but it's the cap # that's more important. Lop off $30 million of the cap for 2020 hurts the team. It's the reason the FO is trying to sign Dak and Cooper; besides talent, it helps the team by spreading the cap hit over X years, not just one.

 

[conner01]

Those are garbage numbers pulled out of your butt.

But the total is probably pretty close
I think more like 100 mil of it over first 4 years and most of the big numbers later so you can get out in 4 yrs
But I do think around that 28 mil per yr is gonna be close

 

[DandyDon52]

Paying an average QB elite money is a receipe for disaster.

Just because the Lions and 49ers grossly over paid their QB's doesn't mean the Cowboys should do the same thing.

well they have only 2 choices, somehow draft another qb that is better than dak, or keep and pay dak.
They know what they have in dak, and a new young qb they wouldnt know anything.
Plus Dak has not done that bad, and they chose him over romo, so have to prove they were right in doing that.
If they cut dak and moved up this year and got another qb like haskins, then people would say they made a mistake
choosing dak over romo, and the jones boys ego's cant handle that.
So they will keep dak and pay him, so according to jumbo that means 3 more years maybe 4 with dak as starting qb.

I dont care how much he makes or is paid, he deserves whatever he gets.
He has done good considering his coaches, and did what it took to get to nfl, and to get romo's job.
Now it it time for him to collect on years of working towards this.

 

[CyberB0b]

Its not easy. Like its not easy to find a great player at any position.

But his point was a different one. And whats more even if its hard to find a good QB you at least have to try it. Its not like we did this the last 12 years.

Nobody is sure if dak can really be a franchise qb. Why put yourself under pressure ? Lets try find a wb who could replace him. Lets have a backup plan at the most important position of the game. How about that ?!

Sure. Are we spending our #2 pick on a backup QB now? The hit rate on late round QBs is laughable.

All you need to replace is average. If you do better then that's a bonus.

It's really hard to get average.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

At the minimum, Dak will make $28M per season. He's done more than Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kirk Cousins, and deserves to be better paid than any of those players. Let's say, 6 years, 171M - an average of $28.5M, with a $45M signing bonus, and $90M guaranteed over the first 3 seasons.

2019 - $45M signing bonus, $3M salary = $12M Salary CAP hit - $90M Dead Money
2020 - $20M Restructure Bonus, $1M salary = $14M Salary CAP hit - $78M Dead Money
2021 - $21M Salary = $34M Salary CAP hit - $64M Dead Money
2022 - $23M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $30M Dead Money - 4th year out, save $6M against CAP
2023 - $23M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $17M Dead Money - 5th year out, save $19M against CAP
2024 - $32M Salary = $36M Salary CAP hit - $4M Dead Money - 6th year out, save $32M against CAP

DAK gets paid $69M over first two seasons - an average of $34.5M per season. He is guaranteed $90M over first 3 seasons, an average of $30M per season. The Cowboys defer the CAP hits on Dak for years 1 & 2 of the contract, but can decide to eat the 3rd year, and after that, they can actually save money against the CAP by cutting Dak.

Even at a CAP hit of $36M per season, the Salary CAP is expected to be around $220M in 2022, so that is only 16% of the overall Salary CAP - which is about right for a top QB. If Dak fails to continue to improve, then the Cowboys have an out in Year 4. But if he wins a Super Bowl or two over the next 6 years, while the top QB contracts rise to about $45M per season, the Cowboys will have made a bargain deal.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Oh! And Dak doesn't make mistakes!
He has all day long to throw and takes sack along with his ints.
Dak has one of the worst conversion percentage on 3rd down and 7+ in the league.

Yep, and 3 winning seasons, two playoffs, playoff win, 2 pro bowls, rookie of the year, leads the league in 4th quarter comebacks all in his first 3 years. And you still look silly.

So I guess your gonna be pissed when he signs a 6 year extension eh?

 

[CowboyRoy]

Breaking: Dak gets 36 mil a year. In a related story multiple Cowboys fans head explode after hearing about the news.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Dak has certainly benefitted from having a good team around him. But the team was 4-12 the year before he arrived so I wouldn’t classify it as elite.

In 2016 he did. Since it’s been a shadow. And we all know how horrid the coaching and scheme are.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I love the way people are discounting the fact that Zeke was added the same year with Dak but they want give Dak credit for all those wins. Plus this defense right now is the best it's been in 12 years.

Actually it’s just football 101. Qb is most Important position in the game. Rb not so much.

 

[CowboyRoy]

and how do people see these figures and not just want to draft another QB, pay the minimum? Dak makes the team better? All those games we watch in misery as the ball floats to the sideline or falls short while the offense seems hopeless and we want to pay this much "because that's the market"? This is a serious question, but please don't take it personally.

I guess you will just have to continue to sit there with that dumb look on your face and wonder.

 

[lostar2009]

I don't know what to tell you. Go watch some football yourself. My guess is Tua, Herbert, or Lawrence could give at least what we are getting from the position now.

If you can't give a good answer why should the Cowboys make a switch? You act as if drafting, development of a qb is easy. You forgot the following.

1. The high bust and turnover rate for qbs. The later the qb is drafted there is a higher likely hood he deserves not pan out.

2. Good QBs are highly saught over in the draft. Moving up to a top ten pick cost a lot. The price go up when a draft class has a strong qb class.

3. Player and time is wasted asking a rookie QB to lead a team to a SB. Let's say we find a guy most qb's at the least take 2-3 years to make it to a SB.

We need to win and win now. Let's load this team and back Dak up. Rather you like it or not the FO is behind Dak. They will lock up their core for the next 3-4 years.