Drafting a first round QB

[Brax]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

Dak will be paid by the DC, for exactly the reasons you state, It is very very hard to hit on a QB. The people who believe you just pick a elite QB in the next draft are fooling themselves. The big problem I have with Dak is that he needs a complete cast of elite players around him, OL, RB, Wr and TE. I believe a franchise QB should elevate the players around him not the players elevate him. The reality of QB's is you never know where the next great one is coming from.

 

[baltcowboy]

I dont think he will be there at the Cowboys draft position because of the success of Lamar Jackson but would the Cowboys be better long term with Jalen Hurts at quarterback on a rookie deal? That is what Jerry and sons might have to think about in the offseason if Dak does not sign an extension.

 

[csirl]

The OP has actually made a good argument for drafting a first round QB. The majority of QBs on the list are of similar standard to Dak. There are a few who are better than Dak. Filter out the John Elway inspired picks and there are very few clearly worse than Dak.

So, if we draft a first round QB, we will likely get a similar QB to Dak, but at a much cheaper price AND with a reasonable chance that the drafted QB may end up better than Dak.

 

[DogFace]

I’ve been asking this exact same question and making this same point since Romo hating days and now into the Dak hating days.

There is never one sensible-realistic answer that has even a decent probability of happening.

There are only about 15 very good QB’s on the planet and we have one of them.

Maybe 5 elite ones, two of which are old, and you have to be damn lucky to get one of those.

You’d have to be ungrounded in reality or extremely entitled to think your team will just get one.

The stats and record say Dak is close and has the chance to get better.

 

[Captain-Crash]

If we do draft a quarterback in the first round, I hope it doesn't hurt Dak's feelings or pressure him.

 

[HungryLion]

All this jibba Jabba to say you're scarred to pick a QB because you might do worse than you already have? Lol How about if you look at it as you basically have a 1 in 3 chance to get Dak production or better instead of that scared stuff you putting out? I'm pretty sure most of y'all live your actual lives like this too and its not a good way to live. A good friend of mine said a long time ago that mentality is the reason you really don't have to worry about much competition in this world. Too many people are focused on losing instead of potentially winning.

that’s not the point of the thread at all Phil.

thanks for trying though.

 

[HungryLion]

You have to consider that just about every QB that us drafted in the first round goes to horrible teams. Some of those teams have ruined several great QB prospects because they have year after year some of the worst teams in the league. These QB prospects are stuck with these horrible teams throughout their rookie contracts and by that time these QBs have been totally ruined by bad coaching and management. Some of these same teams are coach killers as well and no coach or QB has much of a future after their contract with teams like the Browns, Jets or Bucs. On the other hand, the Pats always seems to get good QB play, even from their back-ups. It is not fair to judge the success of a lot of these top QB prospects drafted high when they might have 2-3 different coaches that they play under in their rookie deal. These same teams are known for never accumulating talent on the team that would make an incoming rookie QB have any chance of success. It is easy to see that a rookie QB can step in and play very well when surrounded by the talent that Dallas currently has. Dak has had success at times and he certainly is not as talented as many of the first round QBs that are taken.

Again, NFL teams put significant resources into scouting NFL players. Most of these QB’s drafted had chances to play, on multiple teams before washing out.

so explain that.

 

[Section446]

It’s not. If you Ask every GM in the league I wonder how many would rather spend a 4th on Dak or trade two 1sts and a second for Goff or Wentz?

No doubt that we've gotten more value out of Dak to this point.

 

[HungryLion]

I think it is totally ridiculous if you don’t try to improve any position because you fear that the pick won’t pan out, especially QB. It is the fear of success added to the Dak-love that has so many fans against attempting to upgrade that position. I thought the first step in building a great team is putting together the best players possible. It is gutless to settle for lesser players due to the fear of misevaluating possible players that would upgrade the roster.

The post isn’t about being afraid to draft a QB. Saying so is just stupid nonsense on your part. This is after all just a game to us fans.

the post is about what the odds of landing a QB better than Dak is. What resources it would take to have those odds and whether or not it would
Be smart for the team to do it.


sorry you’re unable to comprehend the basics.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

Yeah it’s a dumb argument for multiple reasons we have been through before. very similar to the personnel that Romo had in 2014. The same Romo you claim never had help.


Thanks for stopping by though.

I guess we are foolish enough to believe that every team in the league doesn’t scout NFL players and a lot of these guys didnt get opportunities with multiple teams.

Exactly. Romo stepped into a great opportunity. I wonder how he would have done a few seasons early with those Dave Campo teams? Now those teams really had nobody.

 

[HungryLion]

Ahhh, shifting the goal posts. Your thread is about dumping Dak and using a first round pick on a QB. Obviously, that means that Dallas would have that QB on his rookie contract for several years. You showed the quality level of the QB's. I picked one and gave a hypothetical. If you had a Bridgewater on his rookie deal for several years, would it be better than having Dak on his extension?

I would argue that more than 50% of the QB's on your list would be better for Dallas on their rookie deal than Dak at $35m or so.

There was no talk about signing another QB.

The stats have been posted before. The vast majority of QB's to win the superbowl in the past 20 years or so were either on their rookie deal or giving the team a discount (Brady). QB's on fair market value contracts don't win super bowls very much. Again, if you are a Cowboys fan, you don't want Dak to make a fair market value contract because historically, it virtually guarantees that the team will never win a super bowl with him.

if you think at least 50% of the QB’s listed, on their rookie deals, would be better than Dak at 33 million. That’s fine. I would say it’s wrong. Considering over 50% of the QB’s listed sucked in the NFL. But you’re free to feel that way.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I wouldn’t even say Cam, Ryan and Luck are better. Not to me anyway. But I get your point. I like how people assume you can find another one when everyone else sucks at it except I guess the Pats. They seem to find them without a first.

The fact is Dak is better than Cam and Ryan now. I don't know about their heyday.

 

[HungryLion]

The OP has actually made a good argument for drafting a first round QB. The majority of QBs on the list are of similar standard to Dak. There are a few who are better than Dak. Filter out the John Elway inspired picks and there are very few clearly worse than Dak.

So, if we draft a first round QB, we will likely get a similar QB to Dak, but at a much cheaper price AND with a reasonable chance that the drafted QB may end up better than Dak.

31% is a majority now?

 

[Philmonroe]

that’s not the point of the thread at all Phil.

thanks for trying though.

That is the point of the thread and when others reply similarly shows you need to better phrase things if it isn’t. Don’t blame me for your posting not being clear and don’t you dare use the echo chamber posters saying you go boy as proof. Most of them aren’t doing more than patting you on the eback.

Thanks for posting non understandable post though

 

[tyke1doe]

Nice. Let's do it.

You guys are SO creative.

 

[tyke1doe]

I think it's silly to even think that we're going to let Dak walk whether we draft a quarterback in the first round or not. But I would have no problem selecting one if, say, someone like Tua drops - which I don't see happening. If we're going to stay with Dak, we need to continue building the offensive and defensive lines and draft an impact safety. This team has enough talent to get to the Super Bowl. We just need better coaching. The more pieces we assemble around Dak, the better our chances - with or without a new coach.

 

[HungryLion]

That is the point of the thread and when others reply similarly shows you need to better phrase things if it isn’t. Don’t blame me for your posting not being clear and don’t you dare use the echo chamber posters saying you go boy as proof. Most of them aren’t doing more than patting you on the eback.

Thanks for posting non understandable post though

No, you just took the thread as being that way due to your preconceived notions about my opinion of Dak. Simple as that.

the post is easily understandable when I literally say

“this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far. ”

It’s not about being afraid. As if anyone is afraid of what happens with a football team.

also, if you’re just going to insult the post by calling it jibba jabba that’s ultimately meaningless and unproductive. So I’m not going to respond any further.

 

[starfrombirth]

I wouldn’t even say Cam, Ryan and Luck are better. Not to me anyway. But I get your point. I like how people assume you can find another one when everyone else sucks at it except I guess the Pats. They seem to find them without a first.

Luck was better, but all those hits behind that atrocious line broke his body down. Luck would have taken us to a couple of superbowls by now. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of Dak and I was a fan of Romo but Luck was Manning...esque,

 

[csirl]

31% is a majority now?

I think most of the QBs on the list are on a similar level to Dak. People may have their favorites, but overall not much of a difference.

 

[HungryLion]

I think most of the QBs on the list are on a similar level to Dak. People may have their favorites, but overall not much of a difference.

If that’s your belief, than so be it. I would strongly disagree with that assessment.