Historically speaking, here is how the playoff committee operates (please bear in mind these rules only apply to the power-5):
1) The most important factor: fewest losses. This seems simple enough even though right now the rankings don't show it as there are a couple undefeated teams outside the top-4. While they don't order things perfectly according to losses in their final rankings, fact is no team has failed to make the playoffs in lieu of a team with more losses. This bodes well for Wisconsin and Miami controlling their own destiny, even though they are currently on the outside looking in (especially since Miami still has 2 games left against teams ahead of them). But even when a lot of people thought Stanford (2015) or Penn State (2016) deserved to go, that 2nd loss was just too much to overcome.
2) Second most important: Winning the conference. This works as a tie breaker for teams with equal numbers of losses. It propelled Michigan State over Iowa and Ohio State in 2015. Only 1 team has made the playoffs without winning their conference, OSU last year (but they got in on the strength of being 1 of only 4 teams with only 1 loss or fewer). This might work to hurt the loser of Alabama-UGA.
3) Third most important: Winning the conference championship game. Playing in and winning a CCG gives a team a boost over a team that wins their conference without a CCG, like the Big XII in 2014. This is not relevant anymore as we all play CCG's now.
However, there are a couple of things which have no precedent in the CFP era: Fewer than 4 teams with 1 loss, a strong independent team (i.e. Notre Dame) and a CCG weekend with a major upset. We have yet to see a situation where a dominant, undefeated #1 team loses CCG weekend. (We have seen an undefeated Iowa team lose CCG weekend, but they were not viewed as a dominant team and they failed to make the playoffs after being passed over by the team that beat them).
So what does all this mean for this year?
1) Wisconsin and Miami probably control their own destinies. They each probably leap Oklahoma if they win out (Miami plays Notre Dame so Notre Dame would essentially be eliminated... this would also guarantee a Clemson loss as well)
2) If Alabama and UGA go undefeated to the SEC CCG, the loser is probably in the top-4 if only 4 teams have 1 loss, but probably out of the top 4 if more than 4 teams have 1 loss.
3) Notre Dame may be punished for not having a conference to win. They may be considered a de facto ACC team, but things get tricky if both ND and Clemson win out.
4) OU probably needs help but there is still a lot of football to be played. Washington needs a TON of help.
