2017 NCAA Football thread

Wisconsin is the only hope for a playoff birth now. And their schedule has been very weak. GA and Alabama will meet in the SEC championship game so one of them will be eliminated. Oklahoma's problem is their loss was to a non ranked team.
ND will be one of them if they win out; especially if Miami wins tonight and they beat Miami. Clemson is probably one of the playoff teams. GA/ALA winner; ND; Clemson. the last one could be really interesting.
 
diefree666 said:
Wisconsin is the only hope for a playoff birth now. And their schedule has been very weak. GA and Alabama will meet in the SEC championship game so one of them will be eliminated.
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I tell ya, I am not so sure.... if each team wins out up to the CCG, then I could definitely see both teams in the playoffs (even though, obviously, 1 team would have 1-loss after the CCG).
 
If Miami beats ND and loses to Clemson in a nail biter ACC championship- could they still be a playoff team?

I see this as a highly possible situation if OU loses another game. Wisconsin gets beat by a 2- loss team in Big 10 championship no question. ND with 2 losses should be eliminated with a loss next Saturday night.
 
mmohican29 said:
If Miami beats ND and loses to Clemson in a nail biter ACC championship- could they still be a playoff team?

I see this as a highly possible situation if OU loses another game. Wisconsin gets beat by a 2- loss team in Big 10 championship no question. ND with 2 losses should be eliminated with a loss next Saturday night.
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Miami is back in the conversation so the game next week will eliminate one of them.

I disagree about the loser of Ga/Ala getting in- too late in the year for that loss. This is single elimination from this point on; whoever loses is out.

Oklahoma- talk about a bipolar team. What really works against them is their poor D. The committee in the past has taken note of such things.
 
mmohican29 said:
If Miami beats ND and loses to Clemson in a nail biter ACC championship- could they still be a playoff team?
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Not if Clemson wins out.
diefree666 said:
I disagree about the loser of Ga/Ala getting in- too late in the year for that loss. This is single elimination from this point on; whoever loses is out.
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The playoff committee has done a really good job of avoiding the recency bias we see in the AP and Coaches' polls. A 1-loss Alabama or Georgia team (assuming that loss comes in the SEC CCG) is still a very strong candidate to stay in the top-4, especially if things shake out like last year where there are exactly 4 teams with 1 loss (or fewer).

Still a lot of football to be played before we get to that point though. And also, please note I am only counting power-5 schools.
 
If OU wins out they definitely go. Committee weighs wins far more than losses and the loss would be dated enough. And OU would have that OSU win as a feather in it's cap.

Bama/GA --it would depend on the game, other results and other SEC teams. On the plus side both schools pass eye ball tests big-time.
Negative is SEC has only 2 good teams. Auburn is a very, very distant 3rd IMHO.

Miami will struggle with 1 loss because they haven't been good recently and haven't been getting the same views as other top teams. But they control their own destiny and score of a
CCG could play a factor for sure. The fact they are the lowest rated undefeated team (in latest rankings) speaks volumes.

ND is interesting because they lose that CCG data point that we were told is so important. 1 point loss to a good Georgia team so they prolly have to hope Georgia beats Bama.
If Georgia is the 3rd or 4th playoff team and you lost to them and didn't win a conf then it'd be tough to put them in over 1 loss Clemson or OU even if they had a less "bad" loss.
So it could come down to Georgia vs ND.

The B1G probably wants Wisc to win out. Right now it's problematic for them that OSU lost soundly at home to OU but beat PSU.

PAC seems in a weird spot. WASH was great last year but no one respects their record yet. Odd.
 
Historically speaking, here is how the playoff committee operates (please bear in mind these rules only apply to the power-5):

1) The most important factor: fewest losses. This seems simple enough even though right now the rankings don't show it as there are a couple undefeated teams outside the top-4. While they don't order things perfectly according to losses in their final rankings, fact is no team has failed to make the playoffs in lieu of a team with more losses. This bodes well for Wisconsin and Miami controlling their own destiny, even though they are currently on the outside looking in (especially since Miami still has 2 games left against teams ahead of them). But even when a lot of people thought Stanford (2015) or Penn State (2016) deserved to go, that 2nd loss was just too much to overcome.

2) Second most important: Winning the conference. This works as a tie breaker for teams with equal numbers of losses. It propelled Michigan State over Iowa and Ohio State in 2015. Only 1 team has made the playoffs without winning their conference, OSU last year (but they got in on the strength of being 1 of only 4 teams with only 1 loss or fewer). This might work to hurt the loser of Alabama-UGA.

3) Third most important: Winning the conference championship game. Playing in and winning a CCG gives a team a boost over a team that wins their conference without a CCG, like the Big XII in 2014. This is not relevant anymore as we all play CCG's now.

However, there are a couple of things which have no precedent in the CFP era: Fewer than 4 teams with 1 loss, a strong independent team (i.e. Notre Dame) and a CCG weekend with a major upset. We have yet to see a situation where a dominant, undefeated #1 team loses CCG weekend. (We have seen an undefeated Iowa team lose CCG weekend, but they were not viewed as a dominant team and they failed to make the playoffs after being passed over by the team that beat them).

So what does all this mean for this year?

1) Wisconsin and Miami probably control their own destinies. They each probably leap Oklahoma if they win out (Miami plays Notre Dame so Notre Dame would essentially be eliminated... this would also guarantee a Clemson loss as well)

2) If Alabama and UGA go undefeated to the SEC CCG, the loser is probably in the top-4 if only 4 teams have 1 loss, but probably out of the top 4 if more than 4 teams have 1 loss.

3) Notre Dame may be punished for not having a conference to win. They may be considered a de facto ACC team, but things get tricky if both ND and Clemson win out.

4) OU probably needs help but there is still a lot of football to be played. Washington needs a TON of help.
 
diefree666 said:
Wisconsin is the only hope for a playoff birth now. And their schedule has been very weak. GA and Alabama will meet in the SEC championship game so one of them will be eliminated. Oklahoma's problem is their loss was to a non ranked team.
ND will be one of them if they win out; especially if Miami wins tonight and they beat Miami. Clemson is probably one of the playoff teams. GA/ALA winner; ND; Clemson. the last one could be really interesting.
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Gonna be a wild ride!

Due to scheduling and conf title games, pretty much any of the top 8 can would make it if they ran the table from here.
  1. Georgia...No gimme for UGA at Auburn this week. Nor for Bama vs Auburn later. But yes, they are both front runners
  2. Alabama...like Georgia, clearly in if undefeated
  3. Notre Dame...win out they are in...as they don't even have to play a conf title game. Will have beaten several decent teams
  4. Clemson....kind of in the same boat as Miami. Sweep the reaming games and in (that would include a win vs Miami in title game)
  5. Oklahoma...like Miami and Clemson, OU and TCU are somewhat interchangeable. Certainly loser this weekend is out barring universal upsets.
  6. Wisconsin...amazingly, got to by-pass 3 power Big 10 teams...lol. No Ohio State, Penn State, Mich St. hey will play one in the title game, but talk about fortunate.
  7. Miami...win out...so wins vs ND and Clemson...and they are clearly in. two big "ifs"
  8. TCU...see OU. Win out and they leap frog several teams most likely.

btw, I think Iowa State is still ranked...but barely.
 
Alabama, Georgia, ND for certain control their own destiny. Wisconsin has such a weak schedule it will depend on who they play in the title game. Though both PSU and OSU have really blotted their copy books lately. Miami I think also can win out and get in. Clemson probably the same. Oklahoma - one thing the committee likes is a consistent team and they are NOT it.

Those saying losses at this time of year are not that important are really ignoring the history of the committee. They really do think its single elimination at this point though they would make an exception probably for Alabama depending on how things go. Alabama has so much cred at this time; but really if they lose to Ga in the CHampionship game they would be a #4 at best. Would depend on how things worked out elsewhere.
 
diefree666 said:
Alabama, Georgia, ND for certain control their own destiny. Wisconsin has such a weak schedule it will depend on who they play in the title game. Though both PSU and OSU have really blotted their copy books lately. Miami I think also can win out and get in. Clemson probably the same. Oklahoma - one thing the committee likes is a consistent team and they are NOT it.

Those saying losses at this time of year are not that important are really ignoring the history of the committee. They really do think its single elimination at this point though they would make an exception probably for Alabama depending on how things go. Alabama has so much cred at this time; but really if they lose to Ga in the CHampionship game they would be a #4 at best. Would depend on how things worked out elsewhere.
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Alabama and Georgia could likely survive a loss, but Miami and Wisconsin likely could not (UNLESS things worked out where they were one of 4 teams to have only 1 loss), much like Washington surviving a late loss last year.
 
DFWJC said:
Gonna be a wild ride!

Due to scheduling and conf title games, pretty much any of the top 8 can would make it if they ran the table from here.
  1. Georgia...No gimme for UGA at Auburn this week. Nor for Bama vs Auburn later. But yes, they are both front runners
  2. Alabama...like Georgia, clearly in if undefeated
  3. Notre Dame...win out they are in...as they don't even have to play a conf title game. Will have beaten several decent teams
  4. Clemson....kind of in the same boat as Miami. Sweep the reaming games and in (that would include a win vs Miami in title game)
  5. Oklahoma...like Miami and Clemson, OU and TCU are somewhat interchangeable. Certainly loser this weekend is out barring universal upsets.
  6. Wisconsin...amazingly, got to by-pass 3 power Big 10 teams...lol. No Ohio State, Penn State, Mich St. hey will play one in the title game, but talk about fortunate.
  7. Miami...win out...so wins vs ND and Clemson...and they are clearly in. two big "ifs"
  8. TCU...see OU. Win out and they leap frog several teams most likely.

btw, I think Iowa State is still ranked...but barely.
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Like I said, ND had an easy schedule. Their due to get shellacked first round in the playoffs.
 
daboyzruleperiod said:
Like I said, ND had an easy schedule. Their due to get shellacked first round in the playoffs.
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:muttley:
Wouldn't break my heart.
But I just looked at their schedule. 5 currently ranked teams (and 4 in the top 12) is not that bad at all. I suspect their SOS is very high.
Still, their most impressive game was the 1 point loss to #1 Georgia.

Who do you want to win it all?
 
If Alabama and Georgia both meet in the SEC title game undefeated, there's a strong chance that the SEC gets two in this year.
 
DFWJC said:
:muttley:
Wouldn't break my heart.
But I just looked at their schedule. 5 currently ranked teams (and 4 in the top 12) is not that bad at all. I suspect their SOS is very high.
Still, their most impressive game was the 1 point loss to #1 Georgia.

Who do you want to win it all?
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Penn State of course lol. My gosh did they ever blow it vs OS & MS. Oh well. Let's see, being I'm a Big 10 fan, I like to see Wisconsin win it all. Their fresh off the block like Clemson was last year. Who I think will win it all is the one no one expects, OSU. Once again, the big names will come up short.

How bout you DF? What's your intake on the Championship?
 
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daboyzruleperiod said:
Penn State of course lol. My gosh did they ever blow it vs OS & MS. Oh well. Let's see, being I'm a Big 10 fan, I like to see Wisconsin win it all. Their fresh off the block like Clemson was last year. Who I think will win it all is the one no one expects, OSU. Once again, the big names will come up short.

How bout you DF? What's your intake on the Championship?
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Of course! :laugh:
 
daboyzruleperiod said:
Like I said, ND had an easy schedule. Their due to get shellacked first round in the playoffs.
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I thought you meant Miami had an easy schedule. It is foolish to say ND has had one. Right now Sagarin has their schedule ranked at #14 in the nation (Miami is 31, Alabama is 56 and Wisconsin is 68). They are 3-1 against the top 25. I am not saying they are the only ones, but not many teams can claim 3 wins over the top 25 (OU is another team that can make that claim, and Sagarin has their schedule ranked #8).
 
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