CFZ 29.8 - average points given up when Dak has thrown it 40 times

[RonnieT24]

I'm a little surprised at you , Ron. You usually have level headed takes. This looks like yet another "Dak needs my protection" thread.

You act like the offense has NOTHING to do with the defense giving up points.

Slow starts
Loss of downs
Punts
Turnovers
3 n outs
ZERO points in 4th qtr and OT (an in fact a turnover or two)


All contribute to putting pressure on the defense. Are we throwing a lot because the defense sucks? Or does the defense suck because we're throwing alot?


It's probably a combination...or a back and forth. Dak shares blame as much as anyone.

I don't ACT like anything. Any ACTING is in your head. I KNOW it's a team game. I merely post this to debunk the whole "Well if the Dak throws 40 times the Cowboys are going to lose" narrative which ACTS like his throwing a certain number of times somehow guarantees a loss.

To your other points though. Before Moore became the play caller the Cowboys were one of the best opening drive teams in the league and among the league leaders in time of possession. But the defense was still average to below average. The Cowboys are 4-2 in the last two seasons when Dak has thrown at least 2 interceptions. Before 2021 they were 1-8. What changed? Maybe the defense got better you think? It also bears stating that if the defense gives up a 75 and 80 yard drives that's on them, not the offense.

What's this about ZERO points in the 4th quarter? I recall a team scoring 33 points in the 4th quarter not that long ago.. Which team was that?

Oh and in his career Dak has 44 TDs in the 4th quarter and OT. And the bad throw to Noah Brown against the Radres last year was his first ever incomplete pass thrown in overtime. Overall he is 23 of 27 260 yards and 3 TDs and his passer rating in overtime is 143.8 with an 85.2% completion rate. Clearly he really struggles at crunch time.

 

[nate dizzle]

No need to wonder.. Of COURSE there are more variables at play. That was kinda my point. Yes some games Dak has turnovers.. But against the Raiders last Thanksgiving he had 375 yards 2 TDs and no turnovers.. But the defense gave up 36 points. Not surprisingly we lost and softheads blamed Dak.. Against Cleveland in 2020 he had 502 yards, 3 TDs and one pick on like the last play of the game. Basically a Hail Mary heave. The week before he had 472 yards 3 TDs and two picks against Seattle. The first pick was a bad one right before half.. The second one I believe was a 4th down heave at the end of the game. I could keep going back through them but my sense is that we might find a game or two here and there where Dak's turnovers put the defense in bad position.. but given the totality of his career I would say those games were rare.. Because for him big -turnover games have not been all that common. He has only had 15 multi-INT games in his entire career. He has had three such games this year.. The Cowboys are 2-1 in those games and were 2-1 in such games last year as well. Meaning his turnovers have not been the death knell for the team some might make it out to be. At least not since the defense stopped sucking. Dak started out 1-8 in games with at least 2 INTs but is 4-2 the last two years. Wonder what changed?

I know there are also fumbles at play there but it's much harder to find lost fumbles .. and aside from 2018 he has not really had much of a problem in that department.

Appreciate you taking a look at it. The defense has definitely been better this year than last. I'm definitely seeing them be put into bad spots by slow starts by our offense and untimely turnovers this year
more than last. The multiple turnover games are concerning.

Really though Ron, taking personal shots at everyone that looks at things differently than you is a bad look. Be better than that.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

Never have I ever seen a QB so needlessly defended to the death. If you have to make 1000+ posts to prove your point and scrap for straws (including pulling out wild stats and situations where context is desperately needed)… doesn’t that mean he’s a problem? Why do people so desperately defend him? Why have multiple people been fired because of his incompetence? There’s a single denominator and it’s Dak. It’s not hard to understand and it doesn’t make you a bad fan for criticizing and pointing out an extreme Achilles heel of your team.

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Moore not making the defense defend the whole field?

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling a bunch of option routes?

So none of Dak Prescott's so called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling the same pass plays, over and over again?



Let us get someone like Kurt Warner in here, as an offensive coordinator and see how much Dak improves.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

There has been a lot of brain dead talk lately about the Cowboys' record when Dak throws the ball 40 or more times. It's 6-14. But since football is a team game that got me wondering.. Why was Dak putting it up 40 or more times in the first place.. I probably kinda knew the answer but went and looked for myself. The bottom line is that pretty much the only time Dak has had to throw it 40 times it's been because the defense has been as loose as a 20 dollar you know what..

I wonder what other QBs records are when their defenses are giving up 30 or more. I bet it aint all that good. None of which is to say Dak doesn't need to play better. Just that these cherry picked numbers in a vacuum don't really tell you a whole lot. The team is 6-14 when giving up a boatload of points. Shocking right? How many times Dak threw the ball probably didn't have much to do with it. In those 14 losses the defense held the opponent to under 20 points twice. Philly in 2019 and KC in 2021. They managed to hold the opponent under 30 three other times.. So in those 14 losses that the talking heads beat their chests about the Cowboys gave up at least 30 points 9 times.

But I can already hear it.. If Dak had only thrown it less the defense would have given up fewer points.. Because we can't play defense if the offense is throwing the ball more than 40 times. It's apparently against the rules. I suspect the defense being porous probably had a lot to do with all those pass attempts. Not every time.. but I would wager more often than not, the pass heavy games featured the defense coming out flat and letting the other team waltz up and down the field, which in turn gave Kellen Moore the excuse he needed to just start slingin it every down!!

What do you care?

Aren't you actively hoping we lose games?

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Moore not making the defense defend the whole field?

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling a bunch of option routes?

So none of Dak Prescott's so called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling the same pass plays, over and over again?



Let us get someone like Kurt Warner in here, as an offensive coordinator and see how much Dak improves.

Ya'll act like Moore is the only OC Dak's ever had lol

Dak's had his best seasons with Moore as the OC.

Do you really want to see a 2017ish version of Dak again?

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

I don't ACT like anything. Any ACTING is in your head. I KNOW it's a team game. I merely post this to debunk the whole "Well if the Dak throws 40 times the Cowboys are going to lose" narrative which ACTS like his throwing a certain number of times somehow guarantees a loss.

To your other points though. Before Moore became the play caller the Cowboys were one of the best opening drive teams in the league and among the league leaders in time of possession. But the defense was still average to below average. The Cowboys are 4-2 in the last two seasons when Dak has thrown at least 2 interceptions. Before 2021 they were 1-8. What changed? Maybe the defense got better you think? It also bears stating that if the defense gives up a 75 and 80 yard drives that's on them, not the offense.

What's this about ZERO points in the 4th quarter? I recall a team scoring 33 points in the 4th quarter not that long ago.. Which team was that?

Oh and in his career Dak has 44 TDs in the 4th quarter and OT. And the bad throw to Noah Brown against the Radres last year was his first ever incomplete pass thrown in overtime. Overall he is 23 of 27 260 yards and 3 TDs and his passer rating in overtime is 143.8 with an 85.2% completion rate. Clearly he really struggles at crunch time.

Yes...that pass to Noah Brown. Talk about killing a young WR's confidence. A simple out pattern Dak threw in the dirt. While on a game winning drive. That pass defines Dak as much as any good one.

Zero points in the 4th and zero points in OT, and a turnover INTERCEPTION. You don't remember that game? Just a few weeks ago?

Figures. Throw out the bad and only report the good.

How about Dak starts his offense in the 1st qtr as well as he starts the 4th (most of the time). It will be easier on the defense.

"Act" as in APPEAR. Mkay? Nitpicking sheesh.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

What do you care?

Aren't you actively hoping we lose games?

Well you ain;t wrong.

 

[RonnieT24]

Appreciate you taking a look at it. The defense has definitely been better this year than last. I'm definitely seeing them be put into bad spots by slow starts by our offense and untimely turnovers this year
more than last. The multiple turnover games are concerning.

Really though Ron, taking personal shots at everyone that looks at things differently than you is a bad look. Be better than that.

I do not believe I have taken any personal shots at anyone. I have presented data which debunks the notion that Dak throwing 40 times is some sort of automatic loss. Maybe giving up 30 points should be looked at a little closer as the cause. I agree that the offense has started slowly since 2019. When Moore took over. He simply has not been as good at setting up that first 12-15 scripted plays as Garrett and Linehan were. That's just an undeniable fact. I have railed about this weakness of his many times. He opens the game trying to figure the opposing defense out rather than attacking it. I will always maintain that after studying the opponent for 60-70 hours during the week you should go into the game with a pretty good idea of where their weaknesses are and where our favorable matchups are.

 

[America's Cowboy]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401437131

Dak has thrown it 40 times once this year. If you look at that game, Green Bay scored 14 points off of interceptions, which both changed the game and lead to the loss. With the game on the line late, Dallas had a 51 second 3 and out drive with two incompletions. This isn't exactly the type of thing Dak supporters want to be pointing to as an example of the defense letting the team down. Dak put the defense in a bad position multiple times and unlike in the Texans game, they couldn't turn lemons into lemonade.

In past years there will be examples of lots of stuff. Bad defense, etc. That said, in a lot of the games you will find a consistent trend of the offense playing poorly early, leading the a deficit. Then the team gives up on the run and they become pass happy. A deep dive will frequently find poor QB play early leading to lots of passes late.

Overall, the OP is not incorrect. Teams generally have a bad record throwing the ball a lot because its generally caused by being behind bu there is some nuance to this.

Both of those Interceptions at Green Bay were due to poor route running by our receivers. Even then, our Cowboys were on their way to win in overtime, but the officials had to step in and make sure the Packers got the win.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Yes...that pass to Noah Brown. Talk about killing a young WR's confidence. A simple out pattern Dak threw in the dirt. While on a game winning drive. That pass defines Dak as much as any good one.

Zero points in the 4th and zero points in OT, and a turnover INTERCEPTION. You don't remember that game? Just a few weeks ago?

Figures. Throw out the bad and only report the good.

How about Dak starts his offense in the 1st qtr as well as he starts the 4th (most of the time). It will be easier on the defense.

"Act" as in APPEAR. Mkay? Nitpicking sheesh.

You mean the game with 2 Interceptions where they happened because of poor route running by our receivers? Also the same game where the officials helped out Rodgers and the Packers...as usual.

You mean that game, right?

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

You mean the game with 2 Interceptions where they happened because of poor route running by our receivers? Also the same game where the officials helped out Rodgers and the Packers...as usual.

You mean that game, right?

What are you gonna do when Dak is no longer the Cowboys QB?

Do you leave with him and follow him to his next team?

 

[America's Cowboy]

What are you gonna do when Dak is no longer the Cowboys QB?

Do you leave with him and follow him to his next team?

Only when you leave back to your Eagles.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Only when you leave back to your Eagles.

Weird that you didn't say "No. Dak is just a player and I'm a Cowboys fan" but instead you try and deflect onto someone else.

Thanks for the clarification. That's good enough for me.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Weird that you didn't say "No. Dak is just a player and I'm a Cowboys fan" but instead you try and deflect onto someone else.

Thanks for the clarification. That's good enough for me.

You're no Cowboys fan, Eagles troll.

 

[cnuball21]

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Moore not making the defense defend the whole field?

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling a bunch of option routes?

So none of Dak Prescott's so called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling the same pass plays, over and over again?



Let us get someone like Kurt Warner in here, as an offensive coordinator and see how much Dak improves.

No, everything is Daks fault. Including the muffed punt and any defensive problems.

 

[RonnieT24]

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Moore not making the defense defend the whole field?

So none of Dak Prescott's so-called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling a bunch of option routes?

So none of Dak Prescott's so called problems have anything to do with Kellen Moore calling the same pass plays, over and over again?



Let us get someone like Kurt Warner in here, as an offensive coordinator and see how much Dak improves.

Thanks for bringing this up.. I have heard a number of experts talk about the route combinations of the Cowboys offense being "man-concept" routes. According to those folks, these route combinations are not as effective against zone defenses. I thought that was an interesting take .. I have always thought that our routes are too predictable for certain situations and I have always blamed it on the Garrett "paint by numbers" approach which basically defaults to certain route combinations in certain downs and distances. That's why so many defenders over the years have stated that they "knew what was coming..." So this is another layer to that.

I'm on record stating that I simply do not trust Kellen Moore's play calling. I don't think he has a feel for it.. at least he has not shown it to this point. He doesn't understand the value of the running game and he needs to adjust his route combinations to a different set of routes over what we're seeing now. And for the love of all that is holy.. scheme up mismatches and exploit them. And don't wait until late in the game to do it. Know your personnel and know your opponent going in and go get some early points against those matchups that favor you before the opponent can adjust. If they figure it out in the second quarter with you up 21-3 so be it. Then you go to something else. You know, like hand it to your two backs who are getting 5 yards a pop.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Wow, this thread started at a low point, but actually managed to decline.
The answer, as in life, isn't Pro or Anti Dak, its somewhere in between..

 

[McKDaddy]

Dak’s TTT is among the best in the league. You just want to believe he holds the ball too long. Did you know that bias can cloud your judgment?

But most of his passes are short. Therefore, things like TTT, completion %, etc., are inflated when compared to QB's who are pushing it downfield.

When he has to work through progressions, I would say there is a lot of evidence that he is not as quick as most other QB's.

 

[nightrain]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401437131

Dak has thrown it 40 times once this year. If you look at that game, Green Bay scored 14 points off of interceptions, which both changed the game and lead to the loss. With the game on the line late, Dallas had a 51 second 3 and out drive with two incompletions. This isn't exactly the type of thing Dak supporters want to be pointing to as an example of the defense letting the team down. Dak put the defense in a bad position multiple times and unlike in the Texans game, they couldn't turn lemons into lemonade.

In past years there will be examples of lots of stuff. Bad defense, etc. That said, in a lot of the games you will find a consistent trend of the offense playing poorly early, leading the a deficit. Then the team gives up on the run and they become pass happy. A deep dive will frequently find poor QB play early leading to lots of passes late.

Overall, the OP is not incorrect. Teams generally have a bad record throwing the ball a lot because its generally caused by being behind bu there is some nuance to this.

This is what I was looking for to take a deeper dive into the initial passing stat with a lot of layers beneath it. Time of possession in the 1st half is also a huge factor. Naturally, when the O hangs the D out to dry with 3 and outs and turnovers and the clock not moving, they are going to start giving up points.

 

[nate dizzle]

I do not believe I have taken any personal shots at anyone. I have presented data which debunks the notion that Dak throwing 40 times is some sort of automatic loss. Maybe giving up 30 points should be looked at a little closer as the cause. I agree that the offense has started slowly since 2019. When Moore took over. He simply has not been as good at setting up that first 12-15 scripted plays as Garrett and Linehan were. That's just an undeniable fact. I have railed about this weakness of his many times. He opens the game trying to figure the opposing defense out rather than attacking it. I will always maintain that after studying the opponent for 60-70 hours during the week you should go into the game with a pretty good idea of where their weaknesses are and where our favorable matchups are.

"Not surprisingly we lost and softheads blamed Dak."

Pretty much a blanket attack on anyone that didn't see it your way. I don't blame Dak for that game by the way. Just saying, your argument had merit, there was no need for the swipe. Wasn't terrible, just uncalled for.