2nd round pick

[waldoputty]

oh i won't argue too much. a good pass rush will help any secondary. they did stack the secondary and seem more content on the DL tweaks. with potentially shopping scandrick it's almost as if they wanted to revamp the entire secondary, so they did.

no question on what they did.
they made their bed and they get to lie in it.
lets hope it is a bed of roses and not thorns.

actually a bed of thorns is better than something in the middle.
last thing we need is making the playoffs but 1 and out.
bed of thorns would at least get us a daddy in the next draft.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

IMO, much rather go with multiple DEs and live with Mcfadden if we had to with the DBs.
Dont trust Moore's brain and Tapper's back.

lol. No freakin way.

 

[jday]

Thanks.
I was wrong with the exactly value - it is 58% for a 1st round pick for the DL.

You are probably aware that you can basically add the 2 stats together.
So a 1st round and a 2nd round come out to 85% that you get a multiyear starter out of the 2 picks.
Let's say we are better drafter by a bit, so it is 100%.
However, that does not mean a rookie starter, nevermind a rookie star.
That is why the time pressure.
It may be 1 year or more to find out if you hit on the player.
Zeke and Dez's clocks are ticking, as is your 5 year window.

In terms of a stats detail, some has said the 2 stats are not independent. That is if one starts, then the other does not (generally). However, the point is talent acquisition rather than who starts.

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Actually, that math doesn't figure, because we are talking about two different players. So, it honestly breaks down exactly as you see the math above. You have a 58% chance of hitting on one and a 26% chance of hitting on the other. For this scenario, unfortunately, the odds don't improve when using two picks for the same position in the first and second round.

 

[waldoputty]

Actually, that math doesn't figure, because we are talking about two different players. So, it honestly breaks down exactly as you see the math above. You have a 58% chance of hitting on one and a 26% chance of hitting on the other. For this scenario, unfortunately, the odds don't improve when using two picks for the same position in the first and second round.

actually what counts is at least 1 of the 2 works out.
for that you add the two - which gets you 84% (58%+26%)
again i am not saying starter - but talent acquisition - so one does not need to worry about independence.

 

[waldoputty]

actually what counts is at least 1 of the 2 works out.
for that you add the two - which gets you 84% (58%+26%)
again i am not saying starter - but talent acquisition - so one does not need to worry about independence.

actually we are both wrong.
we both have forgotten stats 101

if you toss 2 quarters at the same time, what is the chance that at least 1 of them comes up heads - it is 75%
so it is better than 50-50.
but it certainly is not 100% because 25% of the time you get both tails.

bottom line is:
70% of getting 1 starter
15% of getting 2 starters
30% of getting 0 starters

 

[JonJon]

I think that's what they're hoping to get from Tapper this year.

Just looking at it on paper, they're essentially adding a possible top-5 pick in Jaylon Smith and a 4th round pass rusher in Tapper to this year's haul.

Not bad for a team that went 13-3 without any of the, last year.

Will McClay said today that if Tapper came out this year, he would be one of the top edge rushers. So, at least in the Cowboys opinion, Tapper is really worth a 1st round pick this year. When you look at it like that and then add in Taco and Jaylon, then we all can agree that the Cowboys got tremendous value with Taco.

 

[waldoputty]

Will McClay said today that if Tapper came out this year, he would be one of the top edge rushers. So, at least in the Cowboys opinion, Tapper is really worth a 1st round pick this year. When you look at it like that and then add in Taco and Jaylon, then we all can agree that the Cowboys got tremendous value with Taco.

it would be really nice if tapper worked out despite having to manage his back condition.
we shall see and keep fingers crossed.

 

[JonJon]

it would be really nice if tapper worked out despite having to manage his back condition.
we shall see and keep fingers crossed.

Same here. I know we hear players say this all the time, but he recently stated that he feels the best that he has in his entire life. Now that he and the training staff have knowledge about his back condition, they are in a good position to monitor it and perform techniques to help keep him on the field.

 

[jday]

actually we are both wrong.
we both have forgotten stats 101

if you toss 2 quarters at the same time, what is the chance that at least 1 of them comes up heads - it is 75%
so it is better than 50-50.
but it certainly is not 100% because 25% of the time you get both tails.

bottom line is:
70% of getting 1 starter
15% of getting 2 starters
30% of getting 0 starters

I'm not sure what we are missing here, but for some reason I have a hard time believing that drafting a DE in the first and second round improves your odds of finding a decent starter. I could certainly be wrong; statistics was not my best subject in college. I could write essay's with the best of them, but when it came to statistics I struggled. So, you are probably right, but given the success I believe the FO has had since taking Tyron Smith, I am going to have to give them the benefit of the doubt and side with what ever they choose to do. Should drafting of the 2009 versions can back, then you and I can talk about how they could have done it better.

 

[phong02]

actually we are both wrong.
we both have forgotten stats 101

if you toss 2 quarters at the same time, what is the chance that at least 1 of them comes up heads - it is 75%
so it is better than 50-50.
but it certainly is not 100% because 25% of the time you get both tails.

So based on your math, spending an extra 2nd round pick on DL improve your odds of finding a DL starter by about 10%, but using the 2nd round on DB give you 46% of a starting DB. So going with the DB in 2nd round seems to be a better decision.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

So based on your math, spending an extra 2nd round pick on DL improve your odds of finding a DL starter by about 10%, but using the 2nd round on DB give you 46% of a starting DB. So going with the DB in 2nd round seems to be a better decision.

Awuzie helps at both safety and cb. Helps a need at 2 spots. As for Tapper, he said he was feeling 100% (read that doing a google search). Think this was an article posted months ago. We were too thin at DB, getting Awuzie was the correct move.

 

[waldoputty]

So based on your math, spending an extra 2nd round pick on DL improve your odds of finding a DL starter by about 10%, but using the 2nd round on DB give you 46% of a starting DB. So going with the DB in 2nd round seems to be a better decision.

that is a good point for not doing it.
though you also get the extra 15% of getting 2 starters.
i first thought you add the stats, but that is not the case.

however, remember you can play the same game with CBs.
we did take 2 also.
if we double up on CB or DL, i would still double up on DL.

 

[waldoputty]

I'm not sure what we are missing here, but for some reason I have a hard time believing that drafting a DE in the first and second round improves your odds of finding a decent starter. I could certainly be wrong; statistics was not my best subject in college. I could write essay's with the best of them, but when it came to statistics I struggled. So, you are probably right, but given the success I believe the FO has had since taking Tyron Smith, I am going to have to give them the benefit of the doubt and side with what ever they choose to do. Should drafting of the 2009 versions can back, then you and I can talk about how they could have done it better.

lol
your essays are good.

i had to think over the stats also but used the 2 quarters case to convince myself.
get 2 quarters and toss them 20 times.
you should be able to convince yourself.
each quarter should be 50-50 for heads or tails.
either quarter being heads is 75%, both being heads is 25% and both being tails is 25%.
we were both wrong
it has been decades since school at least for me!

 

[waldoputty]

Same here. I know we hear players say this all the time, but he recently stated that he feels the best that he has in his entire life. Now that he and the training staff have knowledge about his back condition, they are in a good position to monitor it and perform techniques to help keep him on the field.

right, tapper kept talking about how he is ready to play last season multiple times.
i hope he does well, and i spent some time looking into his condition and risk.
i think everyone agrees it needs to be manage, but how well can he play compared to before injury?

 

[jday]

lol
your essays are good.

i had to think over the stats also but used the 2 quarters case to convince myself.
get 2 quarters and toss them 20 times.
you should be able to convince yourself.
each quarter should be 50-50 for heads or tails.
either quarter being heads is 75%, both being heads is 25% and both being tails is 25%.
we were both wrong
it has been decades since school at least for me!

I'm going to take your word for it...it does make a degree of sense. Nevertheless, the Cowboys had dire needs at DE, Corner, Safety, and OL. I still maintain, I believe they made the right decision. Of course, Chidobe was one of my pet cats, so I clearly have a bias in this debate.

 

[waldoputty]

I'm going to take your word for it...it does make a degree of sense. Nevertheless, the Cowboys had dire needs at DE, Corner, Safety, and OL. I still maintain, I believe they made the right decision. Of course, Chidobe was one of my pet cats, so I clearly have a bias in this debate.

either way, it has given us a week of chat topics.
it is going to get boring real soon.

 

[phong02]

that is a good point for not doing it.
though you also get the extra 15% of getting 2 starters.
i first thought you add the stats, but that is not the case.

however, remember you can play the same game with CBs.
we did take 2 also.
if we double up on CB or DL, i would still double up on DL.

Actually, I think going off basing on stats is not really valid. But even if we do that, the drop off from 1st round DL to 2nd round DL starter is from 58% to 27%, a pretty significant drop, while 2nd round CB is 46%, which makes more sense. As far as 3rd round goes, both DL and CB starter % is low, so it doesn't really matter.

But in this case, we also need to look at who is available in 2nd round. As numerous people point out, this draft is deep in CBs, obviously, the FO consider the 2nd round CB prospects is better than the 2nd round DL prospect. Hence the selection of the 2nd round CB is the right decision.

 

[waldoputty]

Actually, I think going off basing on stats is not really valid. But even if we do that, the drop off from 1st round DL to 2nd round DL starter is from 58% to 27%, a pretty significant drop, while 2nd round CB is 46%, which makes more sense. As far as 3rd round goes, both DL and CB starter % is low, so it doesn't really matter.

But in this case, we also need to look at who is available in 2nd round. As numerous people point out, this draft is deep in CBs, obviously, the FO consider the 2nd round CB prospects is better than the 2nd round DL prospect. Hence the selection of the 2nd round CB is the right decision.

well it was clearly they were going CB in the 2nd round as they pretty much announced after day 1.

the other thing they could have done is traded up in the 3rd round to nail the same DLs who were taken 10-20 picks earlier. that would have costed less - probably at 4th.

 

[phong02]

well it was clearly they were going CB in the 2nd round as they pretty much announced after day 1.

the other thing they could have done is traded up in the 3rd round to nail the same DLs who were taken 10-20 picks earlier. that would have costed less - probably at 4th.

I think this is where the stats started to break down. In the % you provided for each round, the % of a starter hit is the same wether it is the 1st pick of 3rd round or the last pick of 3rd round. So trading up in 3rd round give you the same 27% of finding a starter. They can stay at the same spot and take a DL.

But again, when the FO evaluates the actual players, they obviously liked 3rd round DB at 92 more than any 3rd round DL + additional picks for a trade up.

 

[waldoputty]

I think this is where the stats started to break down. In the % you provided for each round, the % of a starter hit is the same wether it is the 1st pick of 3rd round or the last pick of 3rd round. So trading up in 3rd round give you the same 27% of finding a starter. They can stay at the same spot and take a DL.

But again, when the FO evaluates the actual players, they obviously liked 3rd round DB at 92 more than any 3rd round DL + additional picks for a trade up.

what i meant was those DL were not available at 92.
as they saw the DL being picked, they could have traded up.

btw, welcome to the board.