4th Quarter QB ratings 04-12..Guess who's #1

[Eskimo]

4th Quarter QB ratings for last 4 games of the season, 04-12. Guess who's #1*?

Aaron Rodgers - 119.1
Phillip Rivers - 108.6
Peyton Manning - 100.0
Kurt Warner - 97.5
Tom Brady - 96.8
Tarvaris Jackson - 95.4
Matt Ryan - 95.2
Tony Romo - 93.6
Carson Palmer - 90.9
Drew Brees - 90.7


*minimum 30 games started


Biggest 4th quarter QB rating differential between first 12 games of the season and last 4 games of the season, 04-12.*:

Aaron Rodgers - +23.0
Phillip Rivers - +24.2
Carson Palmer - +14.1
Tarvaris Jackson - +12.1
Matt Ryan - +12.0
Kurt Warner - +10.7
Tom Brady - +1.4
Peyton Manning - +1.2
Drew Brees - +.7

Tony Romo - -11.4


*minimum 30 games started


Every QB on that list either stayed consistent or got better--sometimes drastically better--in the 4th quarter when the games started to mean more. Except Romo.

This reeks of intellectually dishonest data mining.

You are looking for facts to support a conclusion and if you finesse the numbers enough you may find one to support a conclusion you already had in mind. Your own data puts Romo well into the top 10 for QB rating in 4th Quarter in the last 4 games on the season yet you have to further manipulate it.

The other thing about stats is that they are typically the starting point for deeper analysis. You have to get at what is the real truth and explanation behind numbers that you post. Did you consider that in 2007 he finished the year with a well-known thumb injury. In 2008 he finished the year playing with a broken hand. Of course, in 2011 he played the finale with that giant hand contusion suffered in the first series against the Eagles the year before.

The other thing you would have to do once you try to account for the effect those events had on the numbers, you would then have to try and correct for the quality of the competition faced. I truly believe the schedule makers routinely finesse things to give Dallas a very tough schedule down the stretch. It didn't happen this season but in many seasons he has played this has been the case. In 2011, we played the SB champs twice in the last 4 games, for example. We also played the Eagles who had a very strong defense who actually knocked Romo out of the game.

In the end, when people use robust and honest data sets to analyze "clutchness" in whichever way they want Romo usually manages to be near or at the top of the list. I know people have done it by analyzing QB rating when games are within 8 points or when trailing by a single score and so on. Some people will further focus down into smaller and smaller portions of the game towards the end and still come up with the same result. Romo just gets better and better as the game goes on.

The only reason we are even having this discussion is because of what everyone who is seriously an intelligent Cowboys fan knows. The problem here is not that Tony Romo isn't clutch. The problem has mostly been that the rest of the team isn't clutch. If you brought that opinion forth to most of us here you'd probably be met with agreement instead of derision and ridicule for demonstrating a total lack of understanding about the game of football.

 

[Califan007]

Not sure where you got this,but check out the last two seasons and my guess is that his last 4 games each year have been outstanding.

Unfortunately I tend to agree lol...(well, except for the last game of last year )

 

[Idgit]

Pro Football Reference website, you can finagle all sorts of criteria on there...I had to do a bunch of trial and error tests though to get the list of 4th Qtr QB ratings between 2004-2012.

Yep, pretty much agree with you here...

Thanks. All understood.

Let's just agree to reduce the range for your data to the last 4 years, and agree any QB with a 100+ QBR in Dec with a current rap for not being clutch at the end of the season is probably not having his actual recent work evaluated very fairly. No matter what helmet a guy's wearing, he's playing well enough to get the job done.

If the job's still not getting done, the problem is probably elsewhere on the team.

 

[Califan007]

This reeks of intellectually dishonest data mining.

You are looking for facts to support a conclusion and if you finesse the numbers enough you may find one to support a conclusion you already had in mind. Your own data puts Romo well into the top 10 for QB rating in 4th Quarter in the last 4 games on the season yet you have to further manipulate it.

You know little about stats, then.

Here's the deal: Romo's 4th qtr QB rating was being trotted out as a measure of his clutchness (if not by the OP then by follow-up posters). That assumes that every pass thrown in every 4th quarter of every game over the last 9 years qualifies as a pass being thrown under "clutch" conditions. That's rubbish.

So if 4th qtr QB ratings ARE gonna be used to determine "clutchness", why not look at the 4th qtr QB ratings during games that actually require the QB to be clutch? There are no other games more pressure filled or important than those games in which division titles and playoff births are on the line. Those tend to be the lat 4 games of the season and occur in December-January. So I used the 4th quarter stats of those games to see if the QB rating ranking stands up. Turns out it doesn't.

So I showed how each QB did in the first 12 games (when the pressure isn't likely to be as high) and compared them to the last 4 games (when the pressure tends to be at the highest level during the regular season). Not surprisingly, Romo's 4th quarter QB ratings over his career dropped noticeably. More surprisingly, though, is that none of the other QBs ratings did. They all rose, even if just by a little.

So, no...it's not intellectually dishonest, and it's not some weird warping of stats. Nothing was "finessed" to fit a round peg into a square hole. The context of this thread was determining what Romo's 4th quarter stats should say about him as a QB. I simply broke the rating stats into two groups to better get a reflection of whether or not he and the other QBs were indeed "clutch".

Now, if you want, I could also include the stats from the playoffs and show that Romo's stats continue to go downward as the season goes on lol...Sep-Nov, everything's pretty high. Dec-Jan, everything drops...Playoffs, everything drops even more. He may be the only QB who is called "elite" by some in which that happens. Manning tends to be just the opposite. Aikman definitely was the opposite. Rodgers' stats, by the way, remain amazingly consistent and consistently high, no matter whether it's September, December or the playoffs. Man is indeed clutch.

And that may be the best definition of "clutch": how well you can stay consistenly good/great, no matter what the circumstances.

The other thing about stats is that they are typically the starting point for deeper analysis. You have to get at what is the real truth and explanation behind numbers that you post. Did you consider that in 2007 he finished the year with a well-known thumb injury. In 2008 he finished the year playing with a broken hand. Of course, in 2011 he played the finale with that giant hand contusion suffered in the first series against the Eagles the year before.

None of that was done for any of the QBs by the OP...so why should I do it?...Direct your questions to him first. ...I was just following his lead.

The other thing you would have to do once you try to account for the effect those events had on the numbers, you would then have to try and correct for the quality of the competition faced. I truly believe the schedule makers routinely finesse things to give Dallas a very tough schedule down the stretch. It didn't happen this season but in many seasons he has played this has been the case. In 2011, we played the SB champs twice in the last 4 games, for example. We also played the Eagles who had a very strong defense who actually knocked Romo out of the game.

Again, point those issues towards the OP and find all the different circumstances which each QB faced in each game of each year, then get back to me. I'm not gonna be the only one who does that lol...

In the end, when people use robust and honest data sets to analyze "clutchness" in whichever way they want Romo usually manages to be near or at the top of the list. I know people have done it by analyzing QB rating when games are within 8 points or when trailing by a single score and so on. Some people will further focus down into smaller and smaller portions of the game towards the end and still come up with the same result. Romo just gets better and better as the game goes on.

I personally don't think 4th quarter stats should be the lone measuring stick. To me, every pass thrown in the playoffs and Super Bowl are under "clutch" circumstances. And every 4th quarter pass thrown during a blow-out win in September is irrelevant.

The only reason we are even having this discussion is because of what everyone who is seriously an intelligent Cowboys fan knows. The problem here is not that Tony Romo isn't clutch. The problem has mostly been that the rest of the team isn't clutch. If you brought that opinion forth to most of us here you'd probably be met with agreement instead of derision and ridicule for demonstrating a total lack of understanding about the game of football.

If any posts deserves derision and ridicule it's the ones using the 4th quarter QB rating ranking to make a comment about Romo being "clutch". That dry stat tells you absolutely nothing...which was the point of my post. Break it down into even a slightly more in-depth analysis and you see Romo doesn't rank #1, he ranks #9...break it down further and he probably drops a bit more (or hell, maybe rises a little bit more as well). Do all those break-downs mentioned above for ALL QBs (not just Romo), and he might fall to #20 or rise to #5.

But one thing is certain...Romo's 4th quarter rating from Sep-Nov is propping up his overall 4th quarter rating. And overall 4th quarter rating means jack****.

 

[DFWJC]

If any posts deserves derision and ridicule it's the ones using the 4th quarter QB rating ranking to make a comment about Romo being "clutch". That dry stat tells you absolutely nothing...which was the point of my post. Break it down into even a slightly more in-depth analysis and you see Romo doesn't rank #1, he ranks #9...break it down further and he probably drops a bit more (or hell, maybe rises a little bit more as well). Do all those break-downs mentioned above for ALL QBs (not just Romo), and he might fall to #20 or rise to #5.

But one thing is certain...Romo's 4th quarter rating from Sep-Nov is propping up his overall 4th quarter rating. And overall 4th quarter rating means jack****.

We've already shown that in the last 3 years that he has started this is not true.
So why do you keep saying it is? You even agreed that the stats you posted going all the way back to 2004 were not valid.

The fact is that In the last 3 year years his numbers have been elite in the last 4 games of the year.
They've been better than most of the very top players, in fact.

You'll find if you look at his numbers in games under 1 TD right before the half or end of game or 3rd down--or real measures of clutch- his numbers are shockingly good.

Unfortunately, his sample rate is way too small in the playoffs. Until he and the team remedy that, there will always be questions

 

[Califan007]

Thanks. All understood.

Let's just agree to reduce the range for your data to the last 4 years, and agree any QB with a 100+ QBR in Dec with a current rap for not being clutch at the end of the season is probably not having his actual recent work evaluated very fairly. No matter what helmet a guy's wearing, he's playing well enough to get the job done.

If the job's still not getting done, the problem is probably elsewhere on the team.

Here's the list for the last 4 years:

Rodgers - 142.1 (holy crap lol)
Romo - 110.2
Vick - 107.6
Rivers - 103.9
Ryan - 103.8
Brady - 102.5
Palmer - 101.7

(those are just the ones with a QB rating of 100+)

 

[DFWJC]

Here's the list for the last 4 years:

Rodgers - 142.1 (holy crap lol)
Romo - 110.2
Vick - 107.6
Rivers - 103.9
Ryan - 103.8
Brady - 102.5
Palmer - 101.7

(those are just the ones with a QB rating of 100+)

Thanks

Much more like it.

That Rodgers number is outer worldly.

This is really solid support for Romo in December, obviously. It's so counter to what some of the ESPN talking heads say without actually watching all the games

 

[Califan007]

We've already shown that in the last 3 years that he has started this is not true.
So why do you keep saying it is? You even agreed that the stats you posted going all the way back to 2004 were not valid.

I never said the stats going back to 2004 weren't valid, I just said I used that time span because the OP used that time span and I wanted to remain consistent with him.

My post/stats were in response to:

1) The idea that Romo's 4th quarter QB rating being ranked #1 over the last 9 years means anything, and...

2) the idea that Romo's 4th quarter QB rating being ranked #1 over the last 9 years means he's clutch.

We've had numerous Cowboys fans post on the 'Skins board that Romo's 4th quarter QB rating invalidates the idea that he is not clutch, which is ludicrous. It does nothing of the sort. BUT...if you (not you, but "you" in general) insist on using that 4th quarter stat, then let's break it down a bit further so it tells us more. The only reason I keep mentioning it is because I keep getting asked/commented on about it lol...someone in the other thread said that Romo's 4th quarter QB rating shows that he's a "leader". But 4th quarter stats don't show clutchness, leadership or anything of the sort. At least not the overall 4th quarter stats.

I knew someone (or multiple someones lol) would more or less blow off my 4th quarter stats as meaningless...which by default means the 4th quarter stats in the OP should also be seen as meaningless. Which, again, was part of my point.

 

[Califan007]

Thanks

Much more like it.

That Rodgers number is outer worldly.

This is really solid support for Romo in December, obviously. It's so counter to what some of the ESPN talking heads say without actually watching all the games

Like I said earlier, Romo is definitely getting noticeably better in December-January, which I don't like lol...just glad the team as a whole isn't. Jerruh is wasting Romo's improvement with his moves/decisions as GM. Wade/Garrett should never have been given the reigns for the last 3 years. Not that I'm complaining lol...

 

[Eskimo]

Articles have already been written regarding different measures of clutchness. This included looking at how close games were and the performance isolated to QB rating in those situations - conclusion was Romo's numbers were the best.

They also did another one where they only looked at situations where the team was trailing in the 4th quarter by a score or less and came to the same conclusion - Romo's numbers were the best.

So you don't even have to look for the way to do the studies - what's out there supports the notion that Romo generally has been at his best in tight game situations. Everyone just has certain perceptions based on the results of games which may have very little to do with how Romo played.

For example, consider that in 2011 when the Giants won the SB, they played the Cowboys late in the year and the Cowboys had the lead and could close out the game with a TD - Romo throws a perfect pass to Austin who lost the ball in the lights. Eli leads the Giants down for a TD and 2-point conversion. Cowboys need a FG and have 45 or so seconds to go and no timeouts. Romo drives them all the way down to the Gians 32 yard line. Bailey goes out but JPP blocks the FG. So Romo gave the team 3 opportunities to win only to have his team let him down. He gave the defense a 12 point lead which they squandered. He gave Miles a chance to score a game winning TD but he couldn't locate the ball. He gave Bailey a chance to tie the game with a FG only to have the FG blocking unit fail. All most people remember was the result which was the loss. All I remember is how the team failed again despite how well Romo played in that game.

Anyhow, this can go around and around. All the data strongly supports the notion that Romo has been a very good QB through his whole career. He also has been one of the top rate QBs overall, in the 4th quarter and in various measures of 4th quarter clutchness. He has posted a 100+ QB rating in the last 3 Decembers he has played and yet the team overall has still largely failed. I put that one mostly on the GMs ability to put together a quality roster for A to Z - he always leaves one position horribly undermanned, sometimes two. He prefers the "big star" model of team building but I think outside of the QB you can win without stars everywhere so long as you have enough good players and no glaring weaknesses. For years the defense has been this team's undoing until the last couple of seasons when it has been defense and OL.

Basically games are mostly won and lost today by passing the ball and defending the pass. If you look at the last 3 seasons you'll see a Cowboys team that has been pretty good at passing the ball but absolutely horrifically bad at defending the pass. Most of that deficiency has been due to bad Safety play and bad LB play and occasionally bad CB play. We ditched the bad LBs only for the new LBs to get injured last year but they should be back this year healthy. The old Safeties have now been jettisoned and a new crew of unknowns are back there and Kiffen apparently likes what he has but it is a huge unknown since Church has little experience as a starter and is coming off an Achilles injury and Johnson didn't play at all last year due to issues with his hamstrings and then later his back flared up so who knows how he holds up. There is definitely potential for better coverage but we'll see if the defense can finally hold up its end of the bargain.

If you really want to honestly critique Romo sit down and watch all of the games from beginning to end with an open mind. Watch the 4th quarters and see what happens to his level of play and see what happens to the level of play of the defense. Then draw your conclusions about why the Cowboys have struggled lately to get better than .500. You may not be interested enough to do this but that's the only way you're going to understand what is happening. Football is probably one of the worst sports in the world for gaining an understanding of who has played well by looking only at the statistics that the newspaper prints.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

You believe that Tony "Mr. October" Romo has been considered the biggest and best Choke Artist running an Offense in the NFL for the last 6-8 years for absolutely no reason......really.

 

[Califan007]

Articles have already been written regarding different measures of clutchness. This included looking at how close games were and the performance isolated to QB rating in those situations - conclusion was Romo's numbers were the best.

They also did another one where they only looked at situations where the team was trailing in the 4th quarter by a score or less and came to the same conclusion - Romo's numbers were the best.

Sorry, but there's no way Romo's numbers were better than Rodgers' numbers.

As for the rest, we covered it already in the thread lol...

 

[Cowboys22]

So this data is supposed to tell us Romo is a clutch QB yet all of us who watch the games see him fail time and time again when the season is on the line. The 4th quarter in week 3 is not the same as the 4th quarter in week 17 when you need a win to get in. We all know his stats are great but they don't mean a thing without results. Give me #32 on that list and a super bowl victory and I'll trade you Romo and his stats every single time.

 

[DFWJC]

So this data is supposed to tell us Romo is a clutch QB yet all of us who watch the games see him fail time and time again when the season is on the line. The 4th quarter in week 3 is not the same as the 4th quarter in week 17 when you need a win to get in. We all know his stats are great but they don't mean a thing without results. Give me #32 on that list and a super bowl victory and I'll trade you Romo and his stats every single time.

Last years Washington game not withstanding, Romo's worst games usually HAVE been those early season turnover fests you speak of.
Detroit two years ago, Chicago and NewYork at home last year? Really,for the most part, he's played well late in the year the last few season...except that one game.

 

[Idgit]

You believe that Tony "Mr. October" Romo has been considered the biggest and best Choke Artist running an Offense in the NFL for the last 6-8 years for absolutely no reason......really.

I don't. I don't buy your premise, and, while I do buy that a rap exists, I don't buy that it's for no reason. What I do buy is that that reason has little to do with his actual play on the field in clutch situations.

It's a narrative that started with his first two Decembers. And it got reinforced each time the team fell short in a playoff or NFCE division championship game. Romo gets the blame for those because he's the figurehead for the team, but, for the most part, watching the game and looking at the data both make it pretty clear that he's typically played at a very high level in clutch situations.

I have a harder time believing die-hard fans can watch all of that, and still come away thinking what they just watched was what ESPN reports it as.

 

[Idgit]

Sorry, but there's no way Romo's numbers were better than Rodgers' numbers.

As for the rest, we covered it already in the thread lol...

It was still a good post. Those Rodgers numbers are insane. But then, he's a better player than Tony is.

 

[Clove]

So this data is supposed to tell us Romo is a clutch QB yet all of us who watch the games see him fail time and time again when the season is on the line. The 4th quarter in week 3 is not the same as the 4th quarter in week 17 when you need a win to get in. We all know his stats are great but they don't mean a thing without results. Give me #32 on that list and a super bowl victory and I'll trade you Romo and his stats every single time.

I have some visual stats.

Year 1 06-07- Bobbled snap, out of playoffs.
Year 2- 07-08 - Threw interception to end the game, no come from behind victory.
Year 3 -08-09 - Three interceptions against eagles, no TDs. Out of playoffs
Year 4 - 09- Three fumbles, 1 interception, no TDs.
Year 5 - 2010- Romo hurt, didn't finish season. Completely sucked before being hurt.
Year 6 - 2011 - Had an INT and could only managed 14 pts against giants 31. Eliminated from playoffs.
Year 7 - 2012 - 3 INTs, eliminated again.

I'm sure people could make excuses for all 7 years because I've seen every excuse in the book. I've been done with this dude for 4 years now, and 4 years later, he's the same person who can't put up when the pressure is on.

 

[BIGDen]

Articles have already been written regarding different measures of clutchness. This included looking at how close games were and the performance isolated to QB rating in those situations - conclusion was Romo's numbers were the best.

They also did another one where they only looked at situations where the team was trailing in the 4th quarter by a score or less and came to the same conclusion - Romo's numbers were the best.

So you don't even have to look for the way to do the studies - what's out there supports the notion that Romo generally has been at his best in tight game situations. Everyone just has certain perceptions based on the results of games which may have very little to do with how Romo played.

For example, consider that in 2011 when the Giants won the SB, they played the Cowboys late in the year and the Cowboys had the lead and could close out the game with a TD - Romo throws a perfect pass to Austin who lost the ball in the lights. Eli leads the Giants down for a TD and 2-point conversion. Cowboys need a FG and have 45 or so seconds to go and no timeouts. Romo drives them all the way down to the Gians 32 yard line. Bailey goes out but JPP blocks the FG. So Romo gave the team 3 opportunities to win only to have his team let him down. He gave the defense a 12 point lead which they squandered. He gave Miles a chance to score a game winning TD but he couldn't locate the ball. He gave Bailey a chance to tie the game with a FG only to have the FG blocking unit fail. All most people remember was the result which was the loss. All I remember is how the team failed again despite how well Romo played in that game.

Anyhow, this can go around and around. All the data strongly supports the notion that Romo has been a very good QB through his whole career. He also has been one of the top rate QBs overall, in the 4th quarter and in various measures of 4th quarter clutchness. He has posted a 100+ QB rating in the last 3 Decembers he has played and yet the team overall has still largely failed. I put that one mostly on the GMs ability to put together a quality roster for A to Z - he always leaves one position horribly undermanned, sometimes two. He prefers the "big star" model of team building but I think outside of the QB you can win without stars everywhere so long as you have enough good players and no glaring weaknesses. For years the defense has been this team's undoing until the last couple of seasons when it has been defense and OL.

Basically games are mostly won and lost today by passing the ball and defending the pass. If you look at the last 3 seasons you'll see a Cowboys team that has been pretty good at passing the ball but absolutely horrifically bad at defending the pass. Most of that deficiency has been due to bad Safety play and bad LB play and occasionally bad CB play. We ditched the bad LBs only for the new LBs to get injured last year but they should be back this year healthy. The old Safeties have now been jettisoned and a new crew of unknowns are back there and Kiffen apparently likes what he has but it is a huge unknown since Church has little experience as a starter and is coming off an Achilles injury and Johnson didn't play at all last year due to issues with his hamstrings and then later his back flared up so who knows how he holds up. There is definitely potential for better coverage but we'll see if the defense can finally hold up its end of the bargain.

If you really want to honestly critique Romo sit down and watch all of the games from beginning to end with an open mind. Watch the 4th quarters and see what happens to his level of play and see what happens to the level of play of the defense. Then draw your conclusions about why the Cowboys have struggled lately to get better than .500. You may not be interested enough to do this but that's the only way you're going to understand what is happening. Football is probably one of the worst sports in the world for gaining an understanding of who has played well by looking only at the statistics that the newspaper prints.

Phenomenal post.

 

[HoosierCowboy]

These rankings could be tainted because the Cowboys are forced to play from behind the majority of the time and all they do is pass the ball lol

which makes it even more astonishing--defenses are beter when they know

 

[burmafrd]

I have some visual stats.

Year 1 06-07- Bobbled snap, out of playoffs.
Year 2- 07-08 - Threw interception to end the game, no come from behind victory.
Year 3 -08-09 - Three interceptions against eagles, no TDs. Out of playoffs
Year 4 - 09- Three fumbles, 1 interception, no TDs.
Year 5 - 2010- Romo hurt, didn't finish season. Completely sucked before being hurt.
Year 6 - 2011 - Had an INT and could only managed 14 pts against giants 31. Eliminated from playoffs.
Year 7 - 2012 - 3 INTs, eliminated again.

I'm sure people could make excuses for all 7 years because I've seen every excuse in the book. I've been done with this dude for 4 years now, and 4 years later, he's the same person who can't put up when the pressure is on.

nominated for outstanding moronic post of the day!