CFZ A Possible Explanation of Why Dak Played Jekyll and Hyde (and Hope I Find)

[Rockport]

Consider the case of two quarterbacks...

Exhibit A: Dak "2022 Jekyll" Prescott...124-164, 76% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 1,463 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT...117.0 Quarterback Rating
Exhibit B: Dak "2022 Hyde" Prescott...121-202, 1,256 Yards, 10 TDs, 11 INT...71.7 Quarterback Rating

The Jekyll numbers would have beaten out Mahomes, Allen, Burrows...every QB in the game, and by no small margin. Exhibit B is Hyde/Zach Wilson territory.

WTH, you ask? Is T-Ro cherry picking games, trying some sleight-of-hand deception?

Permit me to explain:
Exhibit A is the "Jekyll" version of Prescott, the totality of stats when Dak was throwing to Lamb, Pollard, Ferguson, and Hilton.
Exhibit B is Dak and his "Hyde" production, the complete stats when DP threw to Schultz, Gallup, Brown, & Elliott.

I didn't bother to tally the small contributions made by other receivers with few targets.

I've got more to say (of course) but I'll pause for everyone to digest this much...and share thoughts.

So you’re saying Dak was better throwing to the best receivers and not as good when throwing to not as good receivers?

 

[CowboyoWales]

Here is my issue with Khiladi's Dak stance...

And Khiladi could be in fact correct(I dont watch film or know what Dak should be doing to even give an opinion if I did watch tape)

Khiladi has beat the drum that Dak makes bad reads/decisions for a while now. If true...would the Jones' and FO not have the resources to come to the same conclusion as Khiladi and then, if Khiladi's judgement is correct...wouldnt the Cowboys draft a QB already and start grooming him knowing that Dak is not cutting it?

Is Khiladi wrong or the Cowboys stupid?

I have posted on here that I believe the Cowboys were put off by Dak and his agents negotiations last contract. Dak had the power and won. Dak seemed to be thrown to the wolves that first game after the contract as Moore seemed to call plays that made Dak show what he could do(I dont watch tape of know x and o's...but there was a lot of discussion about the weird play calls after that game which lead me to my opinion the Cowboys threw Dak to wolves). Dak did not seem to pass the test(assuming the Jones gave Moore directive to make the game hard on the new 40M dollar man)....as the Jones left their box before the game was over and the cameras kept showing the empty box. When was the last time Stephen and Jerry both got up and walked out of the box before a game was over?

I could be wrong...but I dont believe the Cowboys take the same position with Dak this next go around. Now...some here have said that based on the contract he is here a while due to cap hits and we have to resign him. But why not draft a guy?

Is Dak bad in clutch situations against good teams? Does he get anxiety throwing into tight coverage against elite defenses when that has to be done to win in the 4th in close games?

Someone is wrong here...but I have no clue. I guess I would draft a backup for sure...so thats on Dallas, I guess. But is Dak trash or is that overstated?

Some good points. The questions on why we havent drafted a QB is probably threefold, firstly they want to show 'extreme' loyalty and support to Dak (a bit like ensuring Zeke was RB1), secondly we pretty much rely on the draft to strengthen the roster and thirdly possibly we dont like the QB's that are there (if we take that we've picked 20+ in the last two drafts we'd have to draft a round early for a back-up QB).

I also believe that after 2021 the FO didnt believe there was an issue, we got to the play-offs and whilst we lost there were the issues of penalties (O and D) and a distinct inability to stop the run that also took the headlines away from Dak's individual performance......one off's happen, it becomes a concern when it continues (lets hope he has another opportunity in 2023, one he takes).

As the draft is probably this organizations best functions and there's a reported decent QB class in 2024, it COULD BE AN OPTION, to cut Dak in post-June 2024 and trade up to get the man we want.

I agree with your comments about being 'safe' and that's why he'd probably do better with a WCO.

 

[xwalker]

Who has them ranked in the 20’s? Again, that Statmuse site you cited is not a ranking, just a randomly sorted list of teams

@America's Cowboy has a point about the OL coach being fired.

Probably doesn't happen if they were top 8, especially considering Philbin is close friends with McCarthy.

Dak has only lost 4 games in his career when:
Cowboys rush for over 100 yards.
Opponent rushes for less than 100 yards.

Aikman lost when Emmitt held out the first 2 games of 1993...
- Aikman never won the NFC championship or SB without Erik Williams...

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

@America's Cowboy
Dak has only lost 4 games in his career when:
Cowboys rush for over 100 yards.
Opponent rushes for less than 100 yards.

That stat has always been a “duh” kinda thing though; it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. When Dallas is down multiple possessions, they’re gonna stop running… which makes it far less likely they hit 100 yards in a loss. Conversely, when the opponent is ahead, they run more often to burn the clock and rack up rushes… alleviating Dallas from the loss-while-allowing-less-than-100-yards. It’s like saying Dak is 0-36 when his team doesn’t score as many points as the opponent. It’s not as guaranteed as that, but it works in a similar way.

 

[MyFairLady]

That stat has always been a “duh” kinda thing though; it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. When Dallas is down multiple possessions, they’re gonna stop running… which makes it far less likely they hit 100 yards in a loss. Conversely, when the opponent is ahead, they run more often to burn the clock and rack up rushes… alleviating Dallas from the loss-while-allowing-less-than-100-yards. It’s like saying Dak is 0-36 when his team doesn’t score as many points as the opponent. It’s not as guaranteed as that, but it works in a similar way.

Get out out here with your logic. Running the ball 50 times for 2 yards per carry is a guaranteed victory all day long.

 

[glimmerman]

We had no WR other than Lamb. Gallup was not going to be his usual self. Brown was never going to be the next guy. Hiltons first season getting timing down. He was trying to force the ball to Lamb. Elliot was injured. Didn’t do a good job getting the ball to RB in space. I miss the days of screen plays to Elliot and he runs about 20 yards before he is tackled. We needed to get better plays to get the ball to TEs. When we targeted them they did good.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Some great work here sir. I'm throwing in my eye test theory.....is there a way of differentiating Dak's QB Rating when Dallas are level (or in the lead) as opposed to being behind (especially by 7 or more pts)? Alternatively, a way of identifying his rating in the 4th Q (as opposed to 1-3).

@T-RO well I looked up the stats to see how Dak's career figures stacked up when he had a lead as opposed to in hurry-up offense when trailing....the findings are quite dramatic.

Dak
Leading <2 min to go - 146 RTG
Leading <4 min to go - 106
Trailing <2 min to go - 55
Trailing <4 - 73

Excellent when he had a lead, but dramatic downturn when chasing. Just for a bit of context: Allen, Stafford and Cousins all had Ratings of over 80 in each of the trailing categories.

Mr Hyde does seem to come out when the pressure's on and the clocks ticking.

 

[FanofJerry]

@T-RO well I looked up the stats to see how Dak's career figures stacked up when he had a lead as opposed to in hurry-up offense when trailing....the findings are quite dramatic.

Dak
Leading <2 min to go - 146 RTG
Leading <4 min to go - 106
Trailing <2 min to go - 55
Trailing <4 - 73

Excellent when he had a lead, but dramatic downturn when chasing. Just for a bit of context: Allen, Stafford and Cousins all had Ratings of over 80 in each of the trailing categories.

Mr Hyde does seem to come out when the pressure's on and the clocks ticking.

These numbers dont look good if accurate or can be considered fair.

I would like to know more about the deficit on the "trailing" side of things. But Dallas seems to have been pretty competitive for a few years now...so maybe the trailing side is close and not "blow out" territory...meaning Dak should have better numbers assuming game is somewhat close and the performances considered clutch and not hail mary's.

 

[T-RO]

@T-RO well I looked up the stats to see how Dak's career figures stacked up when he had a lead as opposed to in hurry-up offense when trailing....the findings are quite dramatic.

Dak
Leading <2 min to go - 146 RTG
Leading <4 min to go - 106
Trailing <2 min to go - 55
Trailing <4 - 73

Excellent when he had a lead, but dramatic downturn when chasing. Just for a bit of context: Allen, Stafford and Cousins all had Ratings of over 80 in each of the trailing categories.

Mr Hyde does seem to come out when the pressure's on and the clocks ticking.

Wales...I'm a data guy. So you gotta share your source/link...or be prepared to provide the data itself.

I will share this comeback win data, with substantiation.

Tony Romo had 24 comeback wins, and ranks 21st NFL all time (24 in 13 seasons)
Dak Prescott has 12 comeback wins, ranking 102nd NFL all time (12 in 7 seasons so far)

Link:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

Here are all Dak's fourth-quarter comeback wins:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

 

[T-RO]

All passes when trailing

2022...Dak Prescott 88.3 Rating
2021...Dak Prescott 96.0 Rating
2020...Dak Prescott 101.8 Rating
2019...Dak Prescott 92.8 Rating
2018...Dak Prescott 91.0 Rating

Dak has been fine when trailing. Some years quite good.

Some QBs get inflated "when-trailing" stats because their teams are often behind by a lot, and get big garbage time inflation. Dallas has been a predominately winning team - very rarely far behind.

Source:
https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/when-trailing/2020?sort=passyds

 

[CowboyoWales]

Wales...I'm a data guy. So you gotta share your source/link...or be prepared to provide the data itself.

I will share this comeback win data, with substantiation.

Tony Romo had 24 comeback wins, and ranks 21st NFL all time (24 in 13 seasons)
Dak Prescott has 12 comeback wins, ranking 102nd NFL all time (12 in 7 seasons so far)

Link:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

Here are all Dak's fourth-quarter comeback wins:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm

Here it is:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/splits/

Quite strange that you question my source, when it's from the same site you use.....I'm sure you could of found it for yourself, but it doesnt quite fit your narrative.

All passes when trailing

You really open yourself up by using base data without any form of scientific analysis.....all passes when trailing includes EVERY PASS, the point is that he struggles in hurry-up offense when trailing (and clock ticking)......

The discrepancy between the two figures below is marked and any statistician should be drawing that up as a red flag, especially when compared to his contemporaries (Stafford, Allen and Cousins).
Leading <2 min to go - 146 RTG
Trailing <2 min to go - 55 RTG

That's a difference of 91pts....of the three contemporaries the closest to him was Stafford (37 pts difference)......the next worse "Trailing <2 min to go" was Cousins with an 81 Rating.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Some good points. The questions on why we havent drafted a QB is probably threefold, firstly they want to show 'extreme' loyalty and support to Dak (a bit like ensuring Zeke was RB1), secondly we pretty much rely on the draft to strengthen the roster and thirdly possibly we dont like the QB's that are there (if we take that we've picked 20+ in the last two drafts we'd have to draft a round early for a back-up QB).

I also believe that after 2021 the FO didnt believe there was an issue, we got to the play-offs and whilst we lost there were the issues of penalties (O and D) and a distinct inability to stop the run that also took the headlines away from Dak's individual performance......one off's happen, it becomes a concern when it continues (lets hope he has another opportunity in 2023, one he takes).

As the draft is probably this organizations best functions and there's a reported decent QB class in 2024, it COULD BE AN OPTION, to cut Dak in post-June 2024 and trade up to get the man we want.

I agree with your comments about being 'safe' and that's why he'd probably do better with a WCO.

Dak is already road-kill as this coming season is his last as a Cowboy!
Pre-June 2024 CUT.........BOOK IT!

 

[FanofJerry]

I am not a stats guy, my analytical skills are rudimentary...

But Dak's career stats seem pretty consistent from all the stats that are thrown around...

I dont know if it has been mentioned, or...whether it means anything at all...but it did jump out at me unlike his other stats that are being debated...

Career wise...Dak's November and December sack numbers skyrocket. This could be a league wide thing with defenses and QB's. It just jumped off the screen at me. His other numbers dont seem to be effected by it, though.

Just seems harder to do your job while being hurried at QB.

Not making excuses for Dak at all...just relaying info.

 

[CowboyoWales]

I am not a stats guy, my analytical skills are rudimentary...

But Dak's career stats seem pretty consistent from all the stats that are thrown around...

I dont know if it has been mentioned, or...whether it means anything at all...but it did jump out at me unlike his other stats that are being debated...

Career wise...Dak's November and December sack numbers skyrocket. This could be a league wide thing with defenses and QB's. It just jumped off the screen at me. His other numbers dont seem to be effected by it, though.

Just seems harder to do your job while being hurried at QB.

Not making excuses for Dak at all...just relaying info.

Why not develop your analytical skills and compare his figures to his contemporaries?

 

[FanofJerry]

Why not develop your analytical skills and compare his figures to his contemporaries?

Define the reward.

I kid.

Ill look into it later tonight. I assume its from late season Divisional games where the competition it up'ed due to there being an element of playing for a Playoff spot. Could be way wrong though

 

[CowboyoWales]

Define the reward.

I kid.

Ill look into it later tonight. I assume its from late season Divisional games where the competition it up'ed due to there being an element of playing for a Playoff spot. Could be way wrong though

I'll help you out, Dak's sack% year on year are low, only in 2018 did he suffer. Every other year he was ranked in the 10 fewest sack% in the league.

 

[FanofJerry]

I'll help you out, Dak's sack% year on year are low, only in 2018 did he suffer. Every other year he was ranked in the 10 fewest sack% in the league.

Yeah...I dont think Dak gets sacked a lot. I just thought the stats for November and December are interesting because they jump off the screen as there is a large gap(my opinion) compared to September and October.

Again...its most likely the same league wide as there is more tape on what teams are trying to do offensively in November and December, defensive coaches saving their best cards until later in the season when games matter more if you are in contention.

Number jump from 30's to 58 each in November and December.

The 58 figures could be low...but there is a gap that pokes your eye when looking at the stats. Is that gap able to be marginalized? I dont know.

 

[FanofJerry]

I have been looking at pro-football-reference as a casual for a little while now...trying to compare Dak to the Titans of modern NFL QBs...

Dak's QB Rating(no clue if this is a good rating) when trailing with less the 4 minutes to go is 10 points lower than Rogers, Brady, Breeze and 20+ points lower than Mahommes. Mahommes has smaller sample size which might average out over time.

Whats funny is completions on various 3rd and +4 or more yard attempts has Breeze killing it over the same players. Red zone completions has Breeze top dog too. Rogers is top dog on 3rd and 7+ yards compared to the other QBs. Mahommes and Breeze lead the field in Red Zone completion and TD rate.

So many factors and situationals that its hard to distinguish whats what.

 

[CCBoy]

You see, it all started when Jerry had noooo reason for firing Jimmy Johnson and that still applies to now as 'the' cause for all disappointments since.

Then Tony Romo threw a last play of the game interception against the 2007 Giants in a playoff game, and then NY won the Super Bowl. That Cowboy quarterback failure is still Jerry's fault and why Dak can't win anything in the playoffs now. There you go Jerry...

Wait, Jim Brown only had one World Championship, in 1964. Must have been Jerry again...

 

[CCBoy]

@America's Cowboy has a point about the OL coach being fired.

Probably doesn't happen if they were top 8, especially considering Philbin is close friends with McCarthy.

Dak has only lost 4 games in his career when:
Cowboys rush for over 100 yards.
Opponent rushes for less than 100 yards.

Aikman lost when Emmitt held out the first 2 games of 1993...
- Aikman never won the NFC championship or SB without Erik Williams...

This fan is a believer in the Dallas ability to conduct strong after action evaluations and match that with personnel and coaching talents. Both groups are buying into this current franchise status.

Erik Williams never made the Hall of Fame.

Do Tyron Smith and Tyler Smith compare with Erik and Larry Allen, think?

Did Erik's injury derail the 1994 efforts for the Cowboys?