Tristan
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Well I agree with Landrys ol "if they havent shown it by year 3 then they probably wont" but I think theres certain players at most positions that show theyre here to stay in less than 2-3 years and usually within a handful of games.For most positions, I follow the 3 year rule as long as they don't suck the first 2 years and has shown some flashes. For RBs, you can tell immediately. For QBs, it could take little longer.
Il never forget emmits rookie year one of the first games against tampa did some shake n bake that left guys on the turf and you knew he was going to be phenominal, Zeke very similar and I agree rbs show quickest.
Randy Moss is another example of a guy you knew right away was going to be a beast for loooong time!
To me the guys that usually bust after "flashing" have issues, either injuries, dumb, drugs, booze, fam/friends taking all ur $ making them crazy or were just to lazy for the work overall