Alarming stat downplays Dak Prescott's passing ability

[Diehardblues]

A bit of a flaw in this is that by adding in all of the 392 air yards lost by drops you have assumed stats based on having zero drops for the year. Obviously that's not realistic, although if even a portion of those drops were caught, between the air yards, and whatever yards might have been gained after the catch, it's not unreasonable to think Dak would have been over 5,000 yards.

Well said Rogers!

I’m trying to recall other qb’s using the drop stat as an excuse before?

But it’s clear now what this “ drop” stat is all about with the Daksters. It prevented him from breaking 5,000 yards. If he had broken it then it would be another stat they could have touted him with.

 

[Future]

Again, I didn’t use those words. That’s your interpretation.

Im saying offensively we didn’t perform as well in our 8 losses or against teams with 10 wins or more.

And you are putting that on Dak, in the context of this thread and with the post you agreed with that I originally quoted.

No, you didn't say it specifically, but you are absolutely putting the performance in those games on Dak.

 

[OmerV]

The drop stat has some limited relevance if the occurrence of drops is unusually high, but in general every QB will have drops so I doubt the difference

Who is Wince?

Ive never claimed Dak cost us anything. He just throws a lot of balls off target.

I recall Cooper making some miraculous catches.

And I’m not sure how drops are defined but it sounds like an excuse category to me.

I believe to qualify as a "drop" the pass has to be thrown to a point where the receiver should be expected to catch the pass without extraordinary effort. So, a ball that isn't caught by a receiver who doesn't have to make more than a minor adjustment to catch the ball would be a drop, but one where the receiver has to dive or turn dramatically against his momentum etc would not be a drop.

I think there is some relevance to the drop stat if a team has an unusually high occurrence of drops, but even then it's not as if other teams don't have dropped passes too, so there is a limit to how much difference drops make from one team to the next.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Where have I said any losses were on Dak?

I’m simply reporting the results.

In our 8 wins against lesser opponents we put up big numbers offensively averaging 35 points a game. In our 8 losses we averaged 15 points a game.

We were 0-5 against teams with 10 wins or more.

my response was to your comment.

"basel90: Very true . Dak has not proven anything yet . Behind the top OL and Running game and elite talent at WR , all we saw is padded stats from Dak , and a disappearing act when the going gets tough against decent teams or when the run game struggles ."
your response:
Yep
0-5 against teams with 10 wins or more last year.

In our 8 losses averaged only 15 points a game. Not what we’d expect from a top 5 QB and #1 offense.

In our 8 wins against lesser opponents he played at a very high level.

if your reporting results, then why mention dak and why mention 0-5 and averaging 15 points in 8 losses? yes, facts, but you are lumping wins/losses and Dak in your response...intentional? or unintentional? if you are not placing losses on Dak alone, why not mention other factors....like coaching, defense, special teams, etc.....

we were 0-5 against teams with 10 wins or more....yes, but is it all Dak's fault? or were there other factors that led to those? what you stated was an indirect attempt at blaming dak for losses, given you are responding to a post with Dak and padding his stat and you responding to wins and losses and the thread is regarding Dak….

furthermore, it wasn't 15 points average. it was over 17...yes, slight difference, but since you are trying to report FACTs. lets report FACTS as they are...

so tell me the coaching culpability in all of this? tell me special teams culpability in all of this? our coach refused to let go of a kicker, who missed 10 straight kicks from the 40s....that could have led to wins or put us in position to win...

in my opinion, wins/losses are on coach/GM. they are responsible for offense, defense and special teams. Dak is the key to the offense. with that, he is also responsible for what he is asked to do, when the coach decides to run the ball three times inside the 20 in a close game, with a chance to win it, when we have had 40 total yards rushing all game and over 340 yards passing, including 6/7 passing on the same drive...that's not on Dak….that's poor coaching....lets make sure in the game we make other players culpable for their screw ups, ala new orleans game, another close game, when witten at a crucial time in a close game, in the 4th quarter, fumbles the ball away or zeke, fumbles the ball on 4th down or cooper commits a penalty..... these bone headed plays and play calls happened all year....so if you are going to put Dak and wins/losses in the same phrase, lets make sure coaches, other players, defense and special teams are mentioned as well....

and if you are going to credit Dak with wins and losses in 2019, an ***** up year in dallas, then lets take a look at wins/losses in 2016 and mention Dak in that phrase as well.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Dak killed both the Vikings and Packers, and neither loss was on him.

But go ahead and keep pushing this nonsense.

Dak killed the Packers???


This nonsense is exactly what I be talking about

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Those ints. If he had half of those picks last year the bucs would have paid him.

True but interceptions have been his issue since college/rookie. In fact, Bruce Arian said his number goal as a Buc first-year head coach was to cut Winton's interception numbers in half and he honestly thought he could do it. If you watch each post-game presser, you'll how he took time to break down his interceptions........like only this or that one was his fault. They missed the playoffs by ONE game. Winton was directly responsible for at least three of their losses.

 

[Redball Express]

A bit of a flaw in this is that by adding in all of the 392 air yards lost by drops you have assumed stats based on having zero drops for the year. Obviously that's not realistic, although if even a portion of those drops were caught, between the air yards, and whatever yards might have been gained after the catch, it's not unreasonable to think Dak would have been over 5,000 yards.

Yes.

Add that potential yardage back..

but it again was against prevent defenses which allow only small gains as you try to go up field.

Those defenses are designed as we all know to leave an open receiver the QB will release to the defense will rally to to stop long gains.

A completely different defense often with subs added. Taking this into obvious consideration says even at 5500 yd for Dak in 2019..

It's still unrealistic to say Dak earned all that yardage on his own. He was profoundly helped In at least half the games with backing up prevent defenses.

Only the most basic fan would fail to see that.

So people want to see what fits their narrative.

I want to win. Stats and discussion over stats are meaningless to me. The.coaches need it to eval things but that's it.

Do you think stats rule their decisions? Sometimes. But becuz they know so much being on the inside whereas we are not..

their decisions are made with stats being like tea leaves. It leads them to adjust and tinker with 'what-ifs' and whatever.

The Forum gets too caught up in fact checks and all the new vocabulary used now. Technology does not always clarify things.

It can confuse things. Look at this virus. You would think with all the technology and modern medicine we think we have..

they constantly change what we must do and a cure is still not available.

So much for stats and modern methods, huh?

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Some of those drops were from passes that were off but WR got a hand on it. They share in responsibility of the drops...

I agree. Why are "drops" solely the fault of the WR? Seen a TON of passes the receiver had to make an unnecessary adjustment in the route, jump, or stoop. But that's "he's just doing his job".

A well thrown ball does wonders for the catch (as well as YAC). How can suddenly ALL the receivers have The Dropsies? Hmmmmm...I wonder.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I have seen the same. It’s just a tricky thing on where the blame lies. I agree that if it hits them in the hands then they should catch it. But some of these drops that the WR is running across and Dak throws it behind them and at full speed he is trying to reach back with one hand grab the ball and keep moving and not get hit, that’s not a catch that’s gonna be made a lot and I think the blame should be shared. Now I saw some that was just straight drops.

Remember we have to keep in mind what's considered an official drop or catchable pass. I'm guessing OP stats are using catchable passes.

 

[Future]

Dak killed the Packers???


This nonsense is exactly what I be talking about

He did.

You're opinion is irrelevant, because he could go 50-50 for 500 yards and you'd find a way to say he played poorly.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

The drop stat has some limited relevance if the occurrence of drops is unusually high, but in general every QB will have drops so I doubt the difference


I believe to qualify as a "drop" the pass has to be thrown to a point where the receiver should be expected to catch the pass without extraordinary effort. So, a ball that isn't caught by a receiver who doesn't have to make more than a minor adjustment to catch the ball would be a drop, but one where the receiver has to dive or turn dramatically against his momentum etc would not be a drop.

I think there is some relevance to the drop stat if a team has an unusually high occurrence of drops, but even then it's not as if other teams don't have dropped passes too, so there is a limit to how much difference drops make from one team to the next.

It's not just about point of location. Touch arc spin, velocity are all crucial components of a "well thrown ball". A QB can even "throw open" a covered receiver if that have good rapport.

 

[glimmerman]

Remember we have to keep in mind what's considered an official drop or catchable pass. I'm guessing OP stats are using catchable passes.

What’s the criteria they use for the stats. Does it have to hit both hands.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Some of those drops were from passes that were off but WR got a hand on it. They share in responsibility of the drops...

Notice hand is plural.......
Drops
What is Drops?
This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it. If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop. It is recorded by some teams and publications, but not officially by the NFL.

Sporting Charts explains Dropped Pass - Drops
Dropping passes is an accepted part of the game, but professional receivers are expected to catch every ball thrown their way that is not batted down by a defender or outside their reach. As such, dropped passes are recorded to keep track of which receivers are actually catching the ball when they are supposed to. Typically and on average, a professional receiver will drop about 8-9 passes over the course of a season. The widely recognized leader of passes dropped for a season is Terrell Owens, but finding exact numbers is

 

[glimmerman]

I agree. Why are "drops" solely the fault of the WR? Seen a TON of passes the receiver had to make an unnecessary adjustment in the route, jump, or stoop. But that's "he's just doing his job".

A well thrown ball does wonders for the catch (as well as YAC). How can suddenly ALL the receivers have The Dropsies? Hmmmmm...I wonder.

Dak has thrown some that is IMO in the WR range for sure, but not in the numbers. And Dak has thrown some that looked like it was going to someone else, the WR gets a hand on it but would be a hard catch even for a pro. He threw one to Cooper in the middle of the field while he was scrambling that Coop was so open I didn’t know how he got there, threw it so high and fast Dez in his prime couldn’t have come down with it. I guess when 300 pound guys are chasing you it can happen. But it was a 3rd down play so I was unhappy.

 

[WillieBeamen]

He did.

You're opinion is irrelevant, because he could go 50-50 for 500 yards and you'd find a way to say he played poorly.

Youre opinion is irrelevant bc you obviously are a pathetic homer



“dak killed the packers”

 

[Hawkeye0202]

What’s the criteria they use for the stats. Does it have to hit both hands.

General speaking....yes but remember some receivers have wider catch radius than others. I remember one of Parcell QB 10 commandments was to know your receivers. As in how, when, where they like ball placement....thats on Dak.

 

[glimmerman]

Notice hand is plural.......
Drops
What is Drops?
This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it. If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop. It is recorded by some teams and publications, but not officially by the NFL.

Sporting Charts explains Dropped Pass - Drops
Dropping passes is an accepted part of the game, but professional receivers are expected to catch every ball thrown their way that is not batted down by a defender or outside their reach. As such, dropped passes are recorded to keep track of which receivers are actually catching the ball when they are supposed to. Typically and on average, a professional receiver will drop about 8-9 passes over the course of a season. The widely recognized leader of passes dropped for a season is Terrell Owens, but finding exact numbers is

Ok. I thought it was both hands. That makes it look way worse for the WR. If your in position to get both hands on it then you better catch it..

 

[glimmerman]

General speaking....yes but remember some receivers have wider catch radius than others. I remember one of Parcell QB 10 commandments was to know your receivers. As in how, when, where they like ball placement....thats on Dak.

I have seen receivers drop some because they hear foot steps. I remember Dez “dropping one” because he made a pro business decision and he wouldn’t have gotten hit. Someone posted a video of all the drops. Pretty interesting to watch and try to place the blame. Lol.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Ok. I thought it was both hands. That makes it look way worse for the WR. If your in position to get both hands on it then you better catch it..

Exactly.......but again you have to consider the catch radius.

 

[CouchCoach]

LMAO at adding in the drops. While we're at it, let's deduct the missed blocks for RB's and picks for WR's.