Never draft using BPA, but don't take players rated a lot lower just because of need.
No matter how good a player is, if they aren’t realistic projections to start in the next 4-years there’s no point drafting them. That can be scheme fit, or because of the roster or whatever.
For instance:
If we are plan to keep Zeke, and Jaylon there’s no point drafting a feature back or MIKE in the 1st round and it’s dubious even in the 2nd. That’s rich for a backup role in cheap positions. Maybe a RB that can play a slot/return punts but never a Dereck Henry type.
I wouldn’t draft a OC in the 1st/2nd (assuming Fredbeard is healthy) unless they have OG position flex.
I wouldn’t draft a 3-4 OLB, two years ago I would have but if Lawrence returns, with Gregory, Taco, Crawford and Armstrong it’s not gonna give us bang for buck. And I especially wouldn’t gamble of a bad character guy in the position.
The scheme doesn’t utilise a TE that can’t block so it’d take some convincing (New OC) to draft a guy like Fant over Kaden Smith when Smith IMO isn’t as good.
I wouldn’t draft a FS early if we signed Earl Thomas.
BPA isn’t realistic, every roster has positions where a player no matter how talented wouldn’t get used.
BPA is a tier concept after about the top 20 picks in the draft and definitely in the 2nd round and later.
I call it near-BPA.
If they have multiple players all rated within about 10 spots of each other available at #58, then they obviously should use need/fit to make the pick.
If a player they have rated as a 1st round pick makes it to #58, then need should take a back seat to talent.
It is very rare a team drafts a player that ends up being very good to great and regrets picking that player.
The Cowboys passed on RB LeSean McCoy in 2009 because they had Felix and Barber. McCoy was available at the Cowboys 2nd round pick and he was the only available player they had rated as a 1st round pick. The Cowboys entire draft class that year ended up with minimal value as compared to McCoy.
Also drafting with an assumption that a player picked at #58 or lower will be a starter as a rookie is a fail waiting to happen.
I would be happy with an OT at #58. The Cowboys can win with the TEs on the roster would be doomed if Tyron missed the season.
RB Alvin Kamara in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft would be a nice player to have on the roster, especially in 2017 when Zeke was suspended.
What if the Cowboys had an earlier pick in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft and had drafted LB Darius Leonard after drafting Vander Esch in the 1st?
- NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (2018)
- AP First Team All-Pro (2018)
- 2x AFC Defensive Player of the Week (Week 2, 2018; Week 17, 2018)
- AFC Defensive Player of the Month (December 2018)
- NFL Defensive Rookie of the Month (September