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I think the point is that if he heals up he has a very high chance of not only succeeding but being elite. Much better than a 40% baseline. He was awesome at ND all around.
For sure he was. But he still carries a failure risk as a player. Add in the health risk. Discount the pick by a season you know for sure you're not going to get. And then compare it to what was on the board around him. He's got to be hell of a talent when back fully healthy to make the pick worthwhile. And no matter what you're taking a quality defender off the field in what you thought was one of Tony's few remaining seasons where we can still be expected to compete at a high level. It's an expensive risk to run where other playoff teams are sitting tight and taking the best players available.