Big 12 future looks bright without TX & OU

[jterrell]

The mental attitude of both OU and UT has been leading them to this move for quite some time. They have been the big dogs, the only two, in the Big 12 kennel for too long.

I was talking to some UT alum fanatics just this past weekend as an ex UT coach lives two doors down. They look at this as painting on the larger canvass, the largest one in college football. One of the guys said "we might struggle in the beginning but we'd rather lose to a Bama or LSU than a Baylor or TCU".

Doesn't matter what UT's record is, there is a Texas mindset that is set that they are one of the top programs in the country. Many are surprised to discover football wasn't invented in Texas. They are too big not to be in the BIG conference.

And when you compare what OU and UT have accomplished just in football and UT in baseball, they have been the dogs wagging the Big 12 tail. And no group of alums expects to win trophies like the OU ones. There are people in Norman that don't mind Riley walking because he only got them to the CFP, they didn't do anything when they got there.

In a way, that's like the Arkansas mentality with firing Houston Nutt. He takes them to bowl games, 6 in a row, for the first time in a long time and one is a Cotton Bowl victory over Texas and he's a native and ex QB for AR but that's not good enough. How TCU treated Patterson reminds me of this same thing.

Kelly and Venable have no idea what they've walked into if they don't deliver. And both are going to find the schedule a hell of a lot tougher than where they were. Sark got an inside view of that with Bama so he knows what to expect.

In an era of NIL UT can buy championship coaches and talent but I'm still not sure they can overcome culture.
They need to get the business people out of the way and focus on athletic accomplishments.
UT was competing yearly for national sports program of the year then they decided to start appointing CEOs to run athletics.

 

[DFWJC]

Two of the 3 AAC entries to the Big 12 (Houston and UCF) already have nice bowl wins over SEC teams.

• UCF beat Florida
• Houston beat Auburn

The 3rd team--Cincinnati--is in the Final Four

Awful for AAC and their fans to lose those teams but good the Big 12!

 

[jterrell]

Two of the 3 AAC entries to the Big 12 (Houston and UCF) already have nice bowl wins over SEC teams.

• UCF beat Florida
• Houston beat Auburn

The 3rd team--Cincinnati--is in the Final Four

Awful for AAC and their fans to lose those teams but good the Big 12!

The Big 12 has spent 20 years self-sabotaging led mostly by UT.
So it is hard to trust anything any B12 commish does but this move to add 4 teams was VERY smart.
And the 4 teams specifically were wisely chosen which makes sense because they had just run the full study of who to add 2 years prior.
It looked goofy, embarassing even, at the time but that legwork did not go to waste and they were able to move quickly to invite the best Gof5 teams plus BYU.
And the votes with OU/UT removed were in lock step.
Can this lock step nature remain over the next decade? I certainly hope so because it is something the Big 12 has totally lacked with UT as it's prima donna helmet school.
And that mistrust is why Nebraska, Colorado, Missou and TAMU left.

 

[timb2]

Big 12 will become the Big East in football in about another decade.

Texas & Oklahoma were the big names. They should have recruited to get Nebraska ,Texas A& M,Arkansas,& Colorado back. Would have fought for to get LSU also.

Iowa State
Wyoming
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

All others I would kick out


Think about

North
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Kansas
Wyoming
Kansas State
Colorado

South
LSU
Texas
Texas A& M
Oklahoma State
Arkansas
Houston

 

[jterrell]

Big 12 will become the Big East in football in about another decade.

Texas & Oklahoma were the big names. They should have recruited to get Nebraska ,Texas A& M,Arkansas,& Colorado back. Would have fought for to get LSU also.

Iowa State
Wyoming
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

All others I would kick out


Think about

North
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Kansas
Wyoming
Kansas State
Colorado

South
LSU
Texas
Texas A& M
Oklahoma State
Arkansas
Houston

The Big 12 couldn't just recruit those schools. Schools in the SEC and B1G simply have too much money coming in to leave.
Thats not even counting Nebraska's hierarchy all wanting to belong to the academic power that is the B1G.

The NEW BIG 12 is positioned to compete to be the 3rd strongest conference. They won TWO NY6 Bowls over helmet schools beating #5 Notre Dame and #8 Ole Miss.
The new conference went 4-1 versus the SEC in Bowl games.
Cincy was paddled by Bama, but Baylor, TxTech, UCF, HOU all beat SEC schools.
Name the last time the Big East did that?

 

[jterrell]

The Big 12 went 5-2 in Bowl season. They did so by beating the SEC head up 3-0. .

Incoming schools went 2-1 versus the SEC.

This after a phenomenal Bowl season last year as well.
So, yes, the Big 12 will be more than fine.

 

[CouchCoach]

I do not use bowl games as a measurement for conferences unless the games actually matter in the CFP. Too many opt outs and too many teams not showing up as they were before the break between the last regular season game and the bowl games.

It is also difficult to rate them on the out of conference games because too many seek powder puff games and it's hard to fault any teams in the SEC West for doing that. AR's interconference game was against UGA. And AR got Penn State, with many opt outs, in the Outback Bowl.

Opt outs are going to only increase after Matt Corral. Jaylon Smith started it but Corral is really going to accelerate it and these players make nothing but a bag of trinkets for playing.

 

[jterrell]

I do not use bowl games as a measurement for conferences unless the games actually matter in the CFP. Too many opt outs and too many teams not showing up as they were before the break between the last regular season game and the bowl games.

It is also difficult to rate them on the out of conference games because too many seek powder puff games and it's hard to fault any teams in the SEC West for doing that. AR's interconference game was against UGA. And AR got Penn State, with many opt outs, in the Outback Bowl.

Opt outs are going to only increase after Matt Corral. Jaylon Smith started it but Corral is really going to accelerate it and these players make nothing but a bag of trinkets for playing.

Post season performance is how every conference should be judged as the games are versus OTHER conferences with known signed contracts by the conferences.
And this is how it will remain until they expand the CFP.
Once they expand you can certainly judge by that.
But you cannot as long as it is limited to 4 teams which are chosen by voters over anything else.

Players opting out is whatever, but they play far more meaningless games all year long. SEC schools buy at least 2 totally pointless games a year versus fluff teams to boost their records. And I mean embarrassing poor opponents. Those games aren't even on TV or scouted. So kids truly are risking health for NOTHING.
Kids largely opt out because they want to quit school, leave town and go train in California or Florida.
Not many kids are opting out to protect themselves but staying tied to the program and helping the team with Bowl prep while attending classes.
And schools should then develop the remaining guys and go win games. You recruit 25 kids a year and have a roster of ~90 guys. Losing 3-4 shouldn't reduce you to MAC level play. The coaches still get paid. The Bowls still pay out millions.

We saw last year how Florida cried and whined when their NFL guys opted out. Then what happened? Those opt outs aren't ever coming back and you still gotta go win. They couldn't and the coach was fired.

The SEC is elite if you just judge Bama and whatever 1 of the remaining 13 teams rise in a given year but if you play 9 or 10 P5 games in a season and lose half of them you are not. Not even close.

 

[Robbieac]

Let’s be honest.

I’m a BIG XII fan, but the SEC is a better conference (due to always getting the best recruits…there’s nothing better about the schools themselves).

It’s not debatable.

 

[jterrell]

Let’s be honest.

I’m a BIG XII fan, but the SEC is a better conference (due to always getting the best recruits…there’s nothing better about the schools themselves).

It’s not debatable.

If by better you mean have better rosters at the top 3-4 schools, then yes. Absolutely.
If by better you mean any other number of factors it becomes quite debatable.

Bama has the best program in the country easily.
Georgia has obviously grown into the elite category as LSU has fallen off badly.
Tennessee and Missou and other SEC schools that have been powers at times are currently on long dormant streaks fighting to remain relevant in a given season.
The bar to win the SEC is GENERALLY the highest in the land.
Unless of course like this year the game is rather meaningless as 1 team is already locked in the CFP and the other badly needs a win to get in.
Then it is rather like the Cowboys game versus Arizona where one team is playing pretty vanilla while the other pulls out all the stops.
BUT the bar to be an SEC Bowl team is among the lowest in the P5.
This is why the SEC is now struggling in Bowl season. 6 and 7-win SEC teams are not at all guaranteed to be good. They only need a 2-6 SEC record to be eligible.

Also the recruiting thing is very overblown. It's now a 3-year cycle at best.
Over the 5-year period 2016-2020:
The SEC had 5 schools in the top 10. 3 of those 5 schools fired their coach in the last 24 months. Auburn, LSU, Florida.
And Ole Miss who had fallen off badly in recruiting (outside the top 25 and outside the top 30 for the final 4 years of that period before Kiffin took over) surged on the field with quality QB play and play calling.
Big 12 had 2 schools in that top 10. UT which was moribund and has dumped their coach twice. And OU which has been a top 10 program but just lost their Coach and ~20% of the roster after the announced move to the SEC.

You need top 10 classes to win a national title. BUT that may be systemic as much as it is true performance.
You most certainly can recruit top 10 classes and just be terrible at football. Just ask the folks in Austin.

Schools are about programs and culture. Bama dominates because of the culture. They can recruit because of that culture and they can keep guys on the roster for depth because of that culture.
But they aren't always great. This year they weren't great.
That offense slept walk through 3 quarters plus of several games. The defense was spotty in many games as well.
Any other school with their season would not have made the CFP much less been ranked 1st overall.

All that said yes any conference would love to be the SEC.
They are making the most money and playing the best at the top of the league.
Every assumption benefits them.