Big 12 is keeping me interested

[jterrell]

Texas has zero interest in the SEC.
Anyone suggesting that is a must skip regarding expansion.

Texas would join the Big 10 or Pac 75 first.

The Big 12 likely adds two schools in the long run but has been making financial decisions so expect that to continue to be the driving force.

Why did Boren shut up? Likely because he was told the Big 12 will add 2 teams but wants to leverage them into taking small slices of the pie early much like WVU and TCU did.

Quiet as it has been kept amidst all the whinging the B12 per school payout has been in the top 3 every year since expansion/retraction started.

The Big 12 was smart to lose Colorado and it wasn't worth fighting to keep Missou and Nebraska when they had chances at big-time deals.
TAMU was just sick of being bad and took a chance. They'd been worse than Texas Tech in football the previous decade.
But those dorks failed to realize they went to the wrong conference to try to get well in football.
Texas football talent is spread too thin and academics.character meaningless concepts in the SEC.
Guy is arrested for major crimes, goes JUCO bounces back with another SEC school. Profit.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Hmmm...Wonder if BYU gets an invite for FB and BB only later this month.

 

[coogrfan]

http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...-big-12-expansion-is-dead-for-the-time-being/

Big 12 expansion is dead, according to one of most powerful people in the conference.

Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione told CBS Sports the concept of the league growing beyond 10 teams has ended "for the time being."

"There aren't any signs that we'll talk anymore about expansion for a little while," Castiglione added. "We don't have a timeline on it."

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...-big-12-expansion-is-dead-for-the-time-being/

Big 12 expansion is dead, according to one of most powerful people in the conference.

Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione told CBS Sports the concept of the league growing beyond 10 teams has ended "for the time being."

"There aren't any signs that we'll talk anymore about expansion for a little while," Castiglione added. "We don't have a timeline on it."

We will see.

 

[jterrell]

Expansion will be ruled by how much the TV contracts will expand for additional teams(and games).
Adding teams and losing 1 conf game per team doesn't seem to much benefit TV at this point.
While it sucks, at the end of the day this is purely a business decision made by businessmen.
They consider the size of the wallet the real scoreboard.

I truly wish they'd expand. I think it has tons of benefits but unless it makes dollars it don't make sense for the powers that be.

I'd probably go ahead now and add 6 teams. Bite the bullet and get to the 16 everyone expects to be the final conf numbers.
Add teams in logical pairs: USF/UCF (all growth potential and every conf team playing in Florida helps recruiting); Colo St/BYU (Massive LDS and Denver markets, cold weather climes for intrigue and winter sports); Cincy/UConn (big TV markets and likely growth targets).

I suspect outside BYU all these teams would join for vastly reduced payouts the first 5 years. Give them time to build their own personal brand even as they get a boost from increased revenue/interest.

Travel would be mitigated somewhat by making divisional alignment via geography.

Make 4 pods:
Texas/Tech/Baylor/TCU
OU/OKST/KST/KAN
BYU/COST/IOST/CIN
WVA/UCONN/UCF/USF

Then give each team a targeted rival.
UT/OU
Tech/OKST
UCONN/KAN
KST/TCU
WVA/CIN
BYU/BAY
COST/UCF
USF/IOST

Play your 3 Podmates and rival yearly in football, rotate 4 games amongst other 11 opponents in 1-11 fashion.

My studies would focus on this and what the result would be in a decade not next year or 3 years.
You build dynasties over time not a day.

The conference would have a major foothold in every major football hotbed save California and you'd likely still cherry pick from there with schools like UT/OU/BYU.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I would have liked to have seen the Big 12 expand to 12 and then keep it there. That gives you a conference Championship game, it gives you balance and it doesn't make the pie to small for the bean counters. Would have loved for the Big 12 to have gotten off their butts and gotten FSU in the fold but that didn't happen. If I had it to do now, I would like the two teams to be BYU and Houston (for Woodrow).

I would like to see the divisions split into 6 teams each.

Lets say, for the sake of discussion:

UT
Tech
Baylor
TCU
Cougs
WV

This is kinda hard for WV being so far away but honestly, they are far away from everybody in the Conference so maybe it's easier if they only have to play Division in Texas. Would probably help them recruit Texas players better as well.

The Other Conference would be as follows:

OU
OSU
UK
KSt.
Iowa
BYU

The split of OU and Texas would be a major one, for sure but, when the Big 12 first formed, one of the very big mistakes made by the Conference was to allow Nebraska to go alone and keep Texas and OU, the two powers of the conference in the same Division. If you split Texas and OU up, that sets up the two strongest schools to meet, annually, in the Championship Game and it greatly enhances the Conferences chances of getting multiple teams in the Championship Playoffs. Add BYU into this Division and it makes sense Geographically. All this changes if you could some how get FSU into the mix. Then I think you Change out Houston for FSU, move WV to the other side of the Bracket and add FSU. The Texas teams and BYU in the other Division. I think that you would see a really strong rivalry develop between Texas and BYU but you could also add FSU into the Division instead and keep BYU on the other side. I just feel like for the stability of the conference, it might be better to have FSU opposite Texas.

JMO

 

[jterrell]

I would have liked to have seen the Big 12 expand to 12 and then keep it there. That gives you a conference Championship game, it gives you balance and it doesn't make the pie to small for the bean counters. Would have loved for the Big 12 to have gotten off their butts and gotten FSU in the fold but that didn't happen. If I had it to do now, I would like the two teams to be BYU and Houston (for Woodrow).

I would like to see the divisions split into 6 teams each.

Lets say, for the sake of discussion:

UT
Tech
Baylor
TCU
Cougs
WV

This is kinda hard for WV being so far away but honestly, they are far away from everybody in the Conference so maybe it's easier if they only have to play Division in Texas. Would probably help them recruit Texas players better as well.

The Other Conference would be as follows:

OU
OSU
UK
KSt.
Iowa
BYU

The split of OU and Texas would be a major one, for sure but, when the Big 12 first formed, one of the very big mistakes made by the Conference was to allow Nebraska to go alone and keep Texas and OU, the two powers of the conference in the same Division. If you split Texas and OU up, that sets up the two strongest schools to meet, annually, in the Championship Game and it greatly enhances the Conferences chances of getting multiple teams in the Championship Playoffs. Add BYU into this Division and it makes sense Geographically. All this changes if you could some how get FSU into the mix. Then I think you Change out Houston for FSU, move WV to the other side of the Bracket and add FSU. The Texas teams and BYU in the other Division. I think that you would see a really strong rivalry develop between Texas and BYU but you could also add FSU into the Division instead and keep BYU on the other side. I just feel like for the stability of the conference, it might be better to have FSU opposite Texas.

JMO

UT/OU will play yearly in Cotton Bowl regardless of anything else that happens.
Neither school lets that go.

Not mad at 12 teams but it's short-term thinking and doesn't strengthen the conference at all.

HOU has done a great job but it'll be very tough for the Big 12 to have any desire to add them as they don't really move the needle on TVs and add zero recruiting ground. HOU int he Big 12 doesn't lessen the LSU/TAMU SEC appeal in that greater Houston area.

If I can only add 2 teams I'm going with the two Florida schools. Insane growth potential for them given campus size, nice TV markets and insanely fertile recruiting ground.
West: UT, Tech, IOST, OU, OKST, TCU
East: KST, KAN, BAY, WVA, UCF, USF

It would rather screw BAY but the scandal they just ate means they probably can't say much. They should be fine one more season but it may be a steep climb for them the next few years.
You could of course place BAY in West and Iowa St in East also but you'd rather have both divisions get Texas schools for recruiting.

 

[coogrfan]

HOU has done a great job but it'll be very tough for the Big 12 to have any desire to add them as they don't really move the needle on TVs and add zero recruiting ground. HOU int he Big 12 doesn't lessen the LSU/TAMU SEC appeal in that greater Houston area.

So you're willing to simply concede the 4th largest city in America to the SEC? No offense, but that is incredibly short sighted.

 

[DFWJC]

So you're willing to simply concede the 4th largest city in America to the SEC? No offense, but that is incredibly short sighted.

I know you weren't asking me, but surely you dont think the SEC would consider Houston...right?

 

[coogrfan]

I know you weren't asking me, but surely you dont think the SEC would consider Houston...right?

Highly unlikely, if for no other reason than the fact that TAMU wouldn't want to add another Texas school.

jterrell is right when he says that adding UH wouldn't "lessen the LSU/TAMU SEC appeal in that greater Houston area". But it having a four conference games played within the city limits would greatly increase the B12's overall visibility in Houston.

 

[jterrell]

So you're willing to simply concede the 4th largest city in America to the SEC? No offense, but that is incredibly short sighted.

UT draws more TV views in Houston than Houston does.
So does TAMU and LSU.

So adding the 4th largest college TV draw doesn't win the market by any means.

Tech, Baylor and TCU draw well in Houston also because of alumni.

That's the point. UH doesn't really move the needle on anything except what is currently a very good football team.
UT winning 10 games wins the Houston market.

But adding BYU would bring a huge TV ratings boost nationwide. As would adding teams form markets that currently watch about zero Big 12 football.

 

[coogrfan]

UT draws more TV views in Houston than Houston does.
So does TAMU and LSU.

So adding the 4th largest college TV draw doesn't win the market by any means.

So you're comparing three upper echelon P5's who play the majority of their games in primetime slots on national tv against other P5 programs to a (for now) G5 program that is generally relegated to ESPNU or ESPN3 and is stuck facing the Tulanes and Tulsas of the CFB world?

Does the phrase "apples to oranges" mean anything to you?

It doesn't take a media genius to realize that UH's local ratings would get a huge boost from playing a higher profile schedule.

Tech, Baylor and TCU draw well in Houston also because of alumni.

You sure about that?
http://img.***BLOCKED***/albums/v72/gocoogs/Cowboys/IMG_3730_zpsfwag9pss.jpg

(the OU/BU game s/b B12 orange)

The SEC had 6 of the top 10 highest rated cfb games in Houston last season, while the B12 had only 2 (same as UH). BU had 2 games in the local top 20 (and I think we can safely assume the Bears viewership is about to take a nosedive), while TT and TCU had 1 each.

That's the point. UH doesn't really move the needle on anything except what is currently a very good football team.

UT winning 10 games wins the Houston market.

Even if that was true (and it ain't; the Horns local alumni base, while large, is vastly outnumbered by the combined pool of the alumni of schools other than UT), what about the years where UT doesn't win ten games?

But adding BYU would bring a huge TV ratings boost nationwide. As would adding teams form markets that currently watch about zero Big 12 football.

I agree that BYU is the best option available, but I'm not so sure I agree about the rest. Adding new markets would have been a smart play if there was going to be a B12 network. As we all know that isn't happening, so what's the point? Surely it would make more sense to secure the B12's dominance over the largest city in the B12's footprint?

Having said all of this it is my opinion that the B12 isn't going to expand. UT/OU will seek greener pastures when the GOR expires, leaving the rest of the B12 to fend for themselves.

 

[jterrell]

So you're comparing three upper echelon P5's who play the majority of their games in primetime slots on national tv against other P5 programs to a (for now) G5 program that is generally relegated to ESPNU or ESPN3 and is stuck facing the Tulanes and Tulsas of the CFB world?

Does the phrase "apples to oranges" mean anything to you?

It doesn't take a media genius to realize that UH's local ratings would get a huge boost from playing a higher profile schedule.



You sure about that?
http://img.***BLOCKED***/albums/v72/gocoogs/Cowboys/IMG_3730_zpsfwag9pss.jpg

(the OU/BU game s/b B12 orange)

The SEC had 6 of the top 10 highest rated cfb games in Houston last season, while the B12 had only 2 (same as UH). BU had 2 games in the local top 20 (and I think we can safely assume the Bears viewership is about to take a nosedive), while TT and TCU had 1 each.



Even if that was true (and it ain't; the Horns local alumni base, while large, is vastly outnumbered by the combined pool of the alumni of schools other than UT), what about the years where UT doesn't win ten games?



I agree that BYU is the best option available, but I'm not so sure I agree about the rest. Adding new markets would have been a smart play if there was going to be a B12 network. As we all know that isn't happening, so what's the point? Surely it would make more sense to secure the B12's dominance over the largest city in the B12's footprint?

The ratings back up what I've stated. You are just looking at it simplistically.
UT was awful and is in a very bad stretch, while UH had it's best season in 20 years.

The highest rated ESPN game of the year in Houston was Baylor/TCU.
It outdrew TAMU which had a few ESPN games.
Tech made the list is what may well have been their only ABC game of the season.
They played a ton of FS1 which made the list zero times because it wasn't in nearly as many homes.


Part of the issue for the Big 12 is they are losing TV battles because they are shuffled off to FS1 and other cable elective channels.
This is why adding TV ratings is largest part of expansion and why I'd go to 16 teams.

The SEC/ACC/Pac and others with tons of teams have premium match ups every week simply by virtue of so many teams.
TV ratings is where being at 10 has hurt the Big 12 the most. And it's why it will cost them money in the long haul.

There are two solutions for this:
1. Have UT and OU be great.
2. Add teams who draw eyeballs and bring in new markets.

 

[coogrfan]

You think the solution to the B12's SEC problem is "Have UT and OU be great", and I'm the one looking at this simplistically?

.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

UT/OU will play yearly in Cotton Bowl regardless of anything else that happens.
Neither school lets that go.

Not mad at 12 teams but it's short-term thinking and doesn't strengthen the conference at all.

HOU has done a great job but it'll be very tough for the Big 12 to have any desire to add them as they don't really move the needle on TVs and add zero recruiting ground. HOU int he Big 12 doesn't lessen the LSU/TAMU SEC appeal in that greater Houston area.

If I can only add 2 teams I'm going with the two Florida schools. Insane growth potential for them given campus size, nice TV markets and insanely fertile recruiting ground.
West: UT, Tech, IOST, OU, OKST, TCU
East: KST, KAN, BAY, WVA, UCF, USF

It would rather screw BAY but the scandal they just ate means they probably can't say much. They should be fine one more season but it may be a steep climb for them the next few years.
You could of course place BAY in West and Iowa St in East also but you'd rather have both divisions get Texas schools for recruiting.

The problem you have with adding 16 is that a lot of Big 12 schools don't want that. They see it as reducing profits so that could prevent expansion all together. 12 seems to be a medium point that might allow for expansion. You push for 16 and you probably end up with 10. If you want expansion in the Big 12, it may be that you have to accept 12 in order to add more down the line.

Houston is a major market in the US. I believe it is the 10th largest TV Market in the country but I do understand the idea of wanting to expand into other Geographies. I don't agree that it does nothing for you. It certainly helps with recruiting in the Houston Area and it brings in a modern State Of The Art Stadium and Facilities and that's huge. It's why Boise St. can not get into the Big 12. Personally, I think expansion in the Big 12, or really, any other major power conference is no longer about TV revenue and market share. I think the days of the big land grants through expansion are over for the time being. All of the major conferences, with the exception of the Big 12 (maybe) are set. What that means is that there are not going to be anymore big huge payouts for TV markets so it's not nearly as important to gain market into other Geos. I think what you are going to see is how money can be shifted and how the conferences can be strengthened by actually improving on the product.

I also don't agree that bringing Houston into the Big 12 wouldn't lesson the SEC's drawing power. The SEC schools are still going to get good talent from there but you bring in Houston, into the Big 12 and what you are going to do is help the Coogs keep a lot of that talent in Houston. That Football Program probably has the best young Football Coach in the Country right now and the program is on the upswing. You allow them to keep talent in Houston and you could have another Major Football program in the Big 12 overnite. If that happened, it immediately strengthens the Conference overall, to say nothing of what it could mean for Basketball in Houston.

Geo is going to play a much bigger role in things then it did before. Houston is close so the conference saves money there, you don't pour a lot of money into the program because they have already done that. They have new facilities, they have a new stadium, they have already done a lot of stuff that other schools would have to do, in order to make themselves attractive to the Big 12.

The Florida Schools, unless it's FSU, UF or Miami, are not going to really do much for the Big 12 IMO. I mean, I understand the thought process behind recruiting Florida but honestly, the schools that can recruit Florida are already doing it and the argument you make about Houston and how the SEC recruits it is equally, if not more so, relevant to Florida with the SEC and the ACC. Central Florida and South Florida may not be big enough draws and may not have the strength of programs to make an improvement in the actual quality of play. They don't really have national following so it's tough to know how much either of those schools might really help in the recruitment of players from Florida. I don't really see us out recruiting top programs from the SEC or ACC to the Big 12 with the addition of these two schools unless you are already doing so, Like a Strong or a Stoops might already be doing.

I don't know. I think Houston might end up being a better fit then those Florida Schools will be but I could easily be wrong. I guess I just see it as less TV Market Driven now and more of an actual quality of program and how much it might cost in overhead or increase in profits to add schools as the key factors.

 

[DFWJC]

I think the best adds (that are realistic) for the B12 are Cincy and BYU.
BYU would immediately be 3rd in attendance (behind UT and OU) and has a very broad national appeal.
But BYU isn't really pushing to join and, ideally, it'd be good to have another team west of Texas grouped with them. Utah would have been good.

Cincy helps balance the WVU add.
But they are a bit like Houston in that even when they have decent teams they only draw attendance in the low 30s on average. For perspective, East Carolina draws > 10,000 more per game than Houston and are in the same conference. (not saying ECU is a fit, just using a comp).

Tough call for the B12.

 

[jterrell]

The problem you have with adding 16 is that a lot of Big 12 schools don't want that. They see it as reducing profits so that could prevent expansion all together. 12 seems to be a medium point that might allow for expansion. You push for 16 and you probably end up with 10. If you want expansion in the Big 12, it may be that you have to accept 12 in order to add more down the line.

Houston is a major market in the US. I believe it is the 10th largest TV Market in the country but I do understand the idea of wanting to expand into other Geographies. I don't agree that it does nothing for you. It certainly helps with recruiting in the Houston Area and it brings in a modern State Of The Art Stadium and Facilities and that's huge. It's why Boise St. can not get into the Big 12. Personally, I think expansion in the Big 12, or really, any other major power conference is no longer about TV revenue and market share. I think the days of the big land grants through expansion are over for the time being. All of the major conferences, with the exception of the Big 12 (maybe) are set. What that means is that there are not going to be anymore big huge payouts for TV markets so it's not nearly as important to gain market into other Geos. I think what you are going to see is how money can be shifted and how the conferences can be strengthened by actually improving on the product.

I also don't agree that bringing Houston into the Big 12 wouldn't lesson the SEC's drawing power. The SEC schools are still going to get good talent from there but you bring in Houston, into the Big 12 and what you are going to do is help the Coogs keep a lot of that talent in Houston. That Football Program probably has the best young Football Coach in the Country right now and the program is on the upswing. You allow them to keep talent in Houston and you could have another Major Football program in the Big 12 overnite. If that happened, it immediately strengthens the Conference overall, to say nothing of what it could mean for Basketball in Houston.

Geo is going to play a much bigger role in things then it did before. Houston is close so the conference saves money there, you don't pour a lot of money into the program because they have already done that. They have new facilities, they have a new stadium, they have already done a lot of stuff that other schools would have to do, in order to make themselves attractive to the Big 12.

The Florida Schools, unless it's FSU, UF or Miami, are not going to really do much for the Big 12 IMO. I mean, I understand the thought process behind recruiting Florida but honestly, the schools that can recruit Florida are already doing it and the argument you make about Houston and how the SEC recruits it is equally, if not more so, relevant to Florida with the SEC and the ACC. Central Florida and South Florida may not be big enough draws and may not have the strength of programs to make an improvement in the actual quality of play. They don't really have national following so it's tough to know how much either of those schools might really help in the recruitment of players from Florida. I don't really see us out recruiting top programs from the SEC or ACC to the Big 12 with the addition of these two schools unless you are already doing so, Like a Strong or a Stoops might already be doing.

I don't know. I think Houston might end up being a better fit then those Florida Schools will be but I could easily be wrong. I guess I just see it as less TV Market Driven now and more of an actual quality of program and how much it might cost in overhead or increase in profits to add schools as the key factors.

various quick points then moving on....
i played college football in a conference with houston in the swc... i have a pretty good idea how it effects recruiting.
HOU has had soem great coaches but they haven;t lasted. Be it Briles, Kliff, Sumlin ... they move on. Winning 10-11 games in a moribund conf is not same as SEC or Big 12.
TAMU and LSU pulled a ton of NFL talent out of Houston the past 3 years and they can't win the SEC West.
i agree my 16 team plan is a pipedream. its my solution but no not a realistic one for school officials.
but no, i no longer believe they go to 12. i think that makes them next to zero more money.
2 more teams but less conf games they control is bad for the TV networks.
yes it'd be better for competition... easier to win 8 conf games than 9. mediocre teams can miss a couple juggernauts and have a high ranking et al.
but the SEC, Big 10, PAC and ACC all went beyond 12 because that's where the extra TV money is.

9 games x 10 teams is 90/2 = 45 actual games.
8 games x12 teams is 96/2- 48 games.

So you add 2 teams but TV gets only 3 more to pay you for.
The out of conference games increase but who wants to pay for woebegone state vs baylor?

but 14 teams x 8 games is a different story. at 14/16 you start moving that TV needle which is where the money comes from.

you also up your chances of having an elite team which lands you in high cotton bowl payout territory.

 

[coogrfan]

That "moribund conference" beat your champion two years ago in the Fiesta Bowl, and knocked off #8 Florida State in the Peach Bowl this past season. A little respect seems in order, imo.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

various quick points then moving on....
i played college football in a conference with houston in the swc... i have a pretty good idea how it effects recruiting.
HOU has had soem great coaches but they haven;t lasted. Be it Briles, Kliff, Sumlin ... they move on. Winning 10-11 games in a moribund conf is not same as SEC or Big 12.
TAMU and LSU pulled a ton of NFL talent out of Houston the past 3 years and they can't win the SEC West.
i agree my 16 team plan is a pipedream. its my solution but no not a realistic one for school officials.
but no, i no longer believe they go to 12. i think that makes them next to zero more money.
2 more teams but less conf games they control is bad for the TV networks.
yes it'd be better for competition... easier to win 8 conf games than 9. mediocre teams can miss a couple juggernauts and have a high ranking et al.
but the SEC, Big 10, PAC and ACC all went beyond 12 because that's where the extra TV money is.

9 games x 10 teams is 90/2 = 45 actual games.
8 games x12 teams is 96/2- 48 games.

So you add 2 teams but TV gets only 3 more to pay you for.
The out of conference games increase but who wants to pay for woebegone state vs baylor?

but 14 teams x 8 games is a different story. at 14/16 you start moving that TV needle which is where the money comes from.

you also up your chances of having an elite team which lands you in high cotton bowl payout territory.

I am aware of the fact that you played in the SW Conference, we have actually spoken of this in the past, though you may not remember. While I think you are right about the history of Houston Football Coaches, I am not sure that's what will happen with this one. They seem to want to keep him and he is signed for the next 4 seasons, I believe. I guess we'll see, I hope he builds something there and they keep him. They need him, IMO.

My personal opinion is that nothing will happen with the Big 12. If it does, I believe it will be 12 and not 16. I just don't think they have the support for it. Any hope of getting to 16 is probably through an intermediate step to 12 IMO. I just don't think it's in the cards. Again, I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I think the best adds (that are realistic) for the B12 are Cincy and BYU.
BYU would immediately be 3rd in attendance (behind UT and OU) and has a very broad national appeal.
But BYU isn't really pushing to join and, ideally, it'd be good to have another team west of Texas grouped with them. Utah would have been good.

Cincy helps balance the WVU add.
But they are a bit like Houston in that even when they have decent teams they only draw attendance in the low 30s on average. For perspective, East Carolina draws > 10,000 more per game than Houston and are in the same conference. (not saying ECU is a fit, just using a comp).

Tough call for the B12.

Just to correct you...BYU IS pushing to join the Big 12.