From all of the different areas and sources it would seem that UC and BYU are in. That seems to be the only two names that the different sources agree on. And different people have different sources...some get sources from Texas, some from OU, some from WVU, some from various Members in the Big 12 FO. Some from the various teams FOs.
The other two are really the ones that have so much differences in the names and the levels of confidence.
Keep in mind as well...this very well could be nothing more than who will accept the lowest offer.
Some are writing that the Big 12 is going to really really lowball these new teams into a smaller graduated amount of money per year and may very well never become full share members. They seem to indicate that the Big 12 sees this as one of those buyer's market situations and that the Big 12 is the only P5 that is opening up to these G5 teams and they have the upper hand and if the G5 teams want in bad enough they will settle for less. I don't know if there is truth to all of this but when they had the Big 12 Teleconference Boren and Bowlsby did mention negotiating with teams. So who knows.
So as of right now all members of the Big 12 have equal shares (not counting tier 3 money) from their espn/fox contract...WVU and TCU start their full shares this year. So each teams gets about $30. (again this does not count LHN or other teams tier 3 deals or any new money from the Championship game).
The current contract that the Big 12 has says that no matter who they add (up to a total of 14 teams in the conference) that the contract will pay out an additional full share amount per team TO THE CONFERENCE.
So even though the new teams would not be getting the full shares...the big 12 would be. 4 teams $30 amount per team is another $120 million per year to the conference.
So if the new teams coming in agree to a graduated amount per year. I also do not know about any payouts that the Big 12 or the teams would have to pay to the AAC for any teams leaving the AAC.
But what I was talking about earlier is that they make lowaball these teams into starting out with only 5-10 million a year and instead of eventually getting the full share they top off at 10-20 million a year. All of that extra money per year would be divided up among the existing full share teams.
So if the contract pays the big 12 say $120 million more with 4 more teams ($30 million per team added)....but the Big 12 only pays the new four teams $5 million in the first year...that leaves $100 million to divide among the 10 full share teams meaning they would get $10 million dollars which means they would have about $40 million dollars per team for that year which does not include the money they make on their tier 3 deals since we have no conference network.
Good summation.
Fox/ESPN will increase TV money for each team added. The teams will receive less money than full shares so the current members will get increased revenue for 3-5 years.
That's why 14 is more likely than 12.
The Big 12 has found a way to make more money for it's existing members while allowing teams to come in and develop.
They have indicated potential is a big selling point. So schools who they feel would really rise from Big 12 exposure benefit.
I tend to believe that's most of them.
Teams: I am with you that BYU/Cincy are considered locks. Big 12 officials were apologetic they didn't let Cincy and Louisville in before to get to 12.
The other 2 does seem to be depending upon whom you talk to.
As I mentioned earlier in the thread going to 12 doesn't make much financial sense.
Lose some share of Big 12 champ game or Tourney game per team and 2 additional teams TV money doesn't mean more than breaking about even.
But 4 or 6 teams additional TV money would be significant.
My guess is the 4 new teams get smaller shares the first 5 years. Possibly increasing year over year or just an even 50% share for all years.
In the end it's pretty clear they;ve found a way to add teams, make everyone in the conf now more money and set up a brighter future.
Synder was referring to Colorado and Nebraska. Colo has been awful in the Pac and losing Texas recruiting has murdered it for football.
Nebraska wants to play Big 10 football in style and get Big 10 payouts but it's fans lament the loss of UT/OU as opponents and again Texas recruiting ground was always a massive player them.
Colorado could likely come back. They'd make the same or more money upon return they are for the Pac and lend a solid partner for BYU.
They'd welcome a return to playing old Big 8 teams.
It makes sense for Nebraska to return from a winning or coaching stand point but they'd lose money so that won't be happening.
Aggies are making money but looking at some lean football years while stuck in the SEC West. But they are far too proud to ever suggest returning.
Even if their fan base would secretly love it.
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