realtick;3918960 said:
This will sound completely egotistical and not directed at you at all, but I could care less where most pundits rate players.
The NFL Draft has been a keen interest of mine since about '91. I've gone through thinking Mel Kiper was a prophet from on high to realizing he's completely fallible. I've missed on a slew of players, but also "hit" on a couple. I've also wathed the scene basically change, where as Kiper and a few annual paper publications were the few main sources of information, to now, where every pimple-face kid with a website builder can put together a draftsite and parrot information from others.
Basically, through the past 20 years my knowledge base has grown to the point where I can confidently say most of these pundits are no more knowledgable than you or I. Now they may have some access to insider knowledge I don't have as far which teams are interested in specific players, but as far as actually assessing/evaluating individual players, I'm pretty content with my eyes. If I'm wrong about a player then I sink in my own ship, not because I trusted in someone else's analysis.
On the flip-side, I like guy's like SDogo because they have a lot of useful insider information that you can gleam from.
I'd encourage anyone who is really interested in the draft to simply just watch as much football as you can and trust your instincts.
Very well said.
I remember distinctly so badly wanting Dallas to draft Marc Spindler DT out of Pitt in the 1990 draft. He was a big, mean, hard working guy who would be perfect for the middle of Jimmy Johnson's defense.
When the Cowboys traded up from the 20's to pick #17, I was convinced that they were moving up for my guy Spindler. Instead they drafted a guy named Emmitt Smith, and while I thought he was a good player, I was greatly disappointed to see them pass on Spindler.
I just knew they missed the next Randy White.
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No need to explain how off I was on that. Emmitt was one of the best RB's ever, Spindler was average and they simply picked up Tony Castillas from Atlanta to man the middle of the DL.
I have watched every draft since that one and it never fails to amaze me how far off the draft "experts" can be. Or how far off we fans can be.
The bottom line I suppose is that you can just never tell. If we pass on T Smith and take JJ Watt, there will be a lot of teeth gnashing, but in three years, Watt could very well be a pro bowler and Smith could be another Alex Barron.
Or vice versa.
I agree that so called draft guru's probably don't know any more than you or I do, and really the only one's who know more are the team's coaches and scouts. They have access to things we can only dream of and they get the chance to sit down with the players and pick their brains.
And since they do get the chance to do that, when they pick a guy I don't want them to... like they did in 1990 with Emmitt Smith... I now tend to think they know a whole lot more than I (or any of the Kiper types) do about it.
If the Cowboys take Castonzo at 9, I'll be just fine with it.