BTB: Cowboys 2013 Draft Board Leaked... All Seven Rounds (Link Post #21) *Merge*

[xwalker]

Basically if they took floyd they wouldnt get an interior olineman. But I vehemently disagree with that strategy. When the number 5 player drops to you at 18, you take him no matter what. And this isnt just a player the cowboys liked, everyone liked him! I havent been this mad at jerry jones since the roy williams trade.

That would be true if everybody was in agreement on the draft board; however, Kiffin/Marinelli apparently didn't rank Floyd that high.

Ciscowski has said in the past that once a scout rates a player, he does not allow them to change their grade. For this draft, the scouts had already rated players before Kiffin/Marinelli were hired.

If I were the GM, I would only want to draft players in the 1st round that both the position coach, the coordinator on that side of the ball and the scouts all agreed on.

A draft board does not have the same meaning for all teams. Based on past comments by Ciscowski, he likes to have a pure board based on the scouts ratings and without any adjustment for need because he knows that the coaches and FO will adjust the picks based on their input. It appears that some teams put those adjustments into the final draft board; whereas, the Cowboys make those adjustments during the draft.

And to those saying it worked out because of terrence williams, by the draft value chart the number 5 player is worth 1700 and the number 22 and 23 are worth 1540. So we still lost in hindsight.

That is according to the "old" trade chart. It would be the opposite based on most of the newer charts. Also, even people that might use the old chart, would adjust from year to year based on the talent spread. This year it was widely agreed that the talent at the top was weak compared to past drafts while the depth of the talent was better than some other years.

Also interesting that we had terrence williams rated higher than escobar...but went with escobar presumably because te's run out in the 2nd while there was depth at receiver. Thats the entire problem with how jerry is drafting. Hes saying "how do we get value as long as we fill our needs somewhere down the road in the draft". But you have to be willing to not fill a need suffer for a year if you can get that tremendous of a value as floyd was at 18. Got to look at it for the long haul. Thats what garret and ciskowski understand.

There are 2 primary issues in evaluating players for the draft. The 1st is how you value them for your team and the 2nd is where you expect them to be drafted. Williams was rated higher than Escobar; however, they were rated in the same tier. It is common for slightly lower rated players to be drafted ahead of higher rated players in the same tier. Usually it is based on need; however, in this case it was based on predicted availability. IMO, getting both Williams and Escobar shows that the Cowboys did their homework in regards to how other teams rated these players.

What really doesnt make sense is passing on everett dawkins twice in the 5th and 6th despite a 3rd round grade. We must really really really feel set at dt. I dont get ehat the hell theyre thnking quite frankly.

I agree, passing on Dawkins twice was odd, especially considering that they had not drafted a DL.

Again, I think it comes back to the fact that the Cowboys draft board does not have the same meaning that fans and draft analysts think it should have. It appears to be a non-adjusted board; whereas, other teams appear to have boards that are adjusted based on need and coaches input.

The rest of the draft makes sense. Randle in the 5th was rated close to jefferson but we really needed a rb and a 4th te might not make the 53. Then by the 6th we drafted for need with holloman over a few higher rated players (not too big a deal). Also makes sense we tried to trade back into the 7th for dc jefferson give how high he was on our board. Again note we didnt try to trade back into the 7th for dawkins even though he was rated even Higher in the board. Why do they feel sooooo comfortable at dt?....

In the 3-4, they probably keep 4 or 5 DTs. They have:

Ratliff
Hatcher
Lissemore
at draft time they had Brian Price

They have 4 other young DTs plus DE/DT Crawford. I think they really like Price and might have taken Dawkins if Price got injured before the draft. They have now signed DE/DT Anthony Hargrove to take Price's spot on the roster.

It appears that they didn't expect a 5th/6th round DT to make the roster and went with need at LB and took Holloman. Again, the Cowboys board appears to be a pure scouts board without adjustment for need or coaches input. Need and/or coaches input were probably the deciding factor in Holloman over Dawkins.

Summary:
Ciscowski likes a pure scouts board without taking need or coaches input into account. He feels that the Front Office will take the coaches input and need into account during the draft even if they are already built into the board. This would effectively double the impact of need and coaches input.

Draft Pick Decison = Board rating + Draft time coaches input and Draft time need input

If Board rating = Scouts ratings + coaches input + need, then the final Draft Pick Decision contains 2x coaches input and 2x need.

Biggest Concern:
My biggest concern is not on the players they didn't draft but on the ones that they did draft. If Frederick was really the 3rd or 4th best interior OL and the best OC, then that is a good pick. Center is not only one of the biggest needs on the team, it is also one of the most difficult positions to fill in Free Agency.

 

[DFWJC]

Ciscowski has said in the past that once a scout rates a player, he does not allow them to change their grade. For this draft, the scouts had already rated players before Kiffin/Marinelli were hired.

Can't even begin to say how absurd that sounds.

You are saying the final board was set before in January.

That is what we are discussing, the final draft board that was leaked.

Come on xw, you must know better than that.

 

[xwalker]

Can't even begin to say how absurd that sounds.

You are saying the final board was set before in January.

That is what we are discussing, the final draft board that was leaked.

Come on xw, you must know better than that.

Not the final board, but the individual player grades submitted to Ciscowski by the scouts.

 

[speedkilz88]

Can't even begin to say how absurd that sounds.

You are saying the final board was set before in January.

That is what we are discussing, the final draft board that was leaked.

Come on xw, you must know better than that.

The scouts grades that they used to set the board were already made. Ciskowski doesn't let them change their grades. They had trouble with that in the Lacewell years.

 

[DFWJC]

The scouts grades that they used to set the board were already made. Ciskowski doesn't let them change their grades. They had trouble with that in the Lacewell years.

Okay.
Say the scouts final grades were way back in January. So no more film work, combines...nothing else is needed by the scouts. Everything is fixed in January before the coaches are hired. Come on guys.....

Even if it was that far fetched, it does not explain the teams final draft board.

The only thing they could not change was the final draft board on draft day, as they had done that before in Lacewell's days.

That does not explain the four months before then that, when every team in the NFL uses that time to tweak and alter the draft board to get everyone in line.

Surely those four months were used to integrate all of the scouts work with the new defensive scheme. The final draft board for sure reflected that.
Jerry gets in the way at times, but the organization is not totally incompetent.

 

[SMCowboy]

Okay.
Say the scouts final grades were way back in January. So no more film work, combines...nothing else is needed by the scouts. Everything is fixed in January before the coaches are hired. Come on guys.....

Even if it was that far fetched, it does not explain the teams final draft board.

The only thing they could not change was the final draft board on draft day, as they had done that before in Lacewell's days.

That does not explain the four months before then that, when every team in the NFL uses that time to tweak and alter the draft board to get everyone in line.

Surely those four months were used to integrate all of the scouts work with the new defensive scheme. The final draft board for sure reflected that.
Jerry gets in the way at times, but the organization is not totally incompetent.

I am not claiming to know for sure when the board was set. But, there are two things that we do know as absolute fact.

#1.) Floyd was #5 on the draft board
#2.) Kiffen and Marinelli were not real high on Floyd.

Now, exact statements on Floyd by Kiffen/Marinelli are not known, but we do know that Kiffen and Marinelli were not real high of Floyd.

So either:
#1.) The scouts had Floyd as hands down the best player in the draft before getting what Kiffen/Marinelli wanted in a DT.
#2.) Kiffen and Marinelli lied about not being high on Floyd.
#3.) The scouts grades did not for what ever reason have Kiffen/Marinelli's input on what they wanted in a DT.

Of those three options, by far the most logical one in my mind, is #3.

 

[DFWJC]

I am not claiming to know for sure when the board was set. But, there are two things that we do know as absolute fact.

#1.) Floyd was #5 on the draft board
#2.) Kiffen and Marinelli were not real high on Floyd.

Now, exact statements on Floyd by Kiffen/Marinelli are not known, but we do know that Kiffen and Marinelli were not real high of Floyd.

So either:
#1.) The scouts had Floyd as hands down the best player in the draft before getting what Kiffen/Marinelli wanted in a DT.
#2.) Kiffen and Marinelli lied about not being high on Floyd.
#3.) The scouts grades did not for what ever reason have Kiffen/Marinelli's input on what they wanted in a DT.

Of those three options, by far the most logical one in my mind, is #3.

Not fact. I would say, maybe/probably they were not as high on him as the scouts. But to say they were not high ona player ranked 5th on our baord would really be condemning a lot of people over there.

Kiffin said he liked him very, VERY much. He also said that in year one he liked his front 4 and that Floyd would have to rotate in.

That is all he said.

Somehow people are turning this into Kiffin/Marinelli not liking the player all that much.

I do agree that those guys maybe would not have placed him at #5 overall. But that is why you never let your coordinators do the draft.
They would have taken him at 18, you can be sure of that.
If not, the guy is not that high on the board. But they did not have to have him.

Bottom line is that they felt they could do without him and could appease Jerry's (and others') desire to get a 2 for 1 deal while landing a possible Oline starter.

So in that sense, to some degree, your option 3 has some truth.
But we all know for sure that the board had input from all involved. They (coaches, GM, and scouts) had been working night and day on that thing for weeks.

Anyway. We probably agree more than it seems. I just think the need for oline and the trade down option won out.

 

[jterrell]

Not fact. I would say, maybe/probably they were not as high on him as the scouts. But to say they were not high ona player ranked 5th on our baord would really be condemning a lot of people over there.

Kiffin said he liked him very, VERY much. He also said that in year one he liked his front 4 and that Floyd would have to rotate in.

That is all he said.

Somehow people are turning this into Kiffin/Marinelli not liking the player all that much.

I do agree that those guys maybe would not have placed him at #5 overall. But that is why you never let your coordinators do the draft.
They would have taken him at 18, you can be sure of that.
If not, the guy is not that high on the board. But they did not have to have him.

Bottom line is that they felt they could do without him and could appease Jerry's (and others') desire to get a 2 for 1 deal while landing a possible Oline starter.

So in that sense, to some degree, your option 3 has some truth.
But we all know for sure that the board had input from all involved. They (coaches, GM, and scouts) had been working night and day on that thing for weeks.

Anyway. We probably agree more than it seems. I just think the need for oline and the trade down option won out.

facts:
BEFORE the draft Jerry said he'd lean on Kiffin and Marinelli in the war room as they were bringing in a new defensive scheme and he likes his coordinators to fact check the scouts board.

This is something Jerry got from a successful coach named Jimmy Johnson.

A player taken at 18 needs to start for NFL teams with cap problems. Especially in Dallas where not starting means major media drama. Not starting essentially means bust to the knee jerk crowd.

Kiffin was clear Floyd was a 1T in what he saw of him, but he might be a 3T down the road. Marinelli hasn't been too vocal with media but he was apparently loudest guy against Floyd at 18. Perhaps he didn't want the pressure of growing Floyd into a DT here while he had experience options that are much, much more proven pass rushers.

The scouts graded Floyd highly versus this class but he did not touch the grade they had on Mo last year! That was pick 6 and a massive need position. So they traded up to get that player at a rich cost.

By making the trades in 2012 and 2013 we ended up with Mo, Frederick and Terence Williams instead of Brockers, Floyd and another quality inside/middle LB.


THOUGHTS:
Considering our front 7 is already the best area on the team that looks like decent resource management.

 

[CyberB0b]

Mickey and Broaddus have said many times that Jerry's biggest weakness in the war room is that the last person who gets to him is the most influential. It appears the defensive coaches got his ear last.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

It's not hard to come to the conclusion that this specific board was or may have been leaked on purpose.

 

[xwalker]

It's not hard to come to the conclusion that this specific board was or may have been leaked on purpose.

Yes, there was a quote by Jerry today were he said the leak was not a big deal and that competitors could not gain a competitive advantage from the leaked info.

 

[xwalker]

“I don’t see the negative aspect of that information,” Jones said. “We won’t make it a practice of publishing it, but still I don’t think it’s an important detail.”

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/ar...e-1cf110a59c32

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I am astounded by how confused some people are. It seems people are more confused now than they were before given additional information.

Amazing.

 

[SMCowboy]

Mickey and Broaddus have said many times that Jerry's biggest weakness in the war room is that the last person who gets to him is the most influential. It appears the defensive coaches got his ear last.

Given the two defensive coaches that got his ear are Kiffen and Marinelli. Two of the finest defensive minds in football today. Atleast in this case that is a VERY good thing.

 

[DFWJC]

I am astounded by how confused some people are. It seems people are more confused now than they were before given additional information.

Amazing.

:laugh2:
Tell me about it.

We are presented the board.
Oh, but it's not the board, unless only for specific picks.

 

[CyberB0b]

Given the two defensive coaches that got his ear are Kiffen and Marinelli. Two of the finest defensive minds in football today. Atleast in this case that is a VERY good thing.

They aren't talent evaluators for one. Secondly, how did Kiffin do at his last stop.

 

[xwalker]

I'll try to explain again:

Ciscowski has discussed not including need in the board to prevent double dipping for need.

He feels that the Front Office will take need into account during the draft; therefore, he wants to keep need out of the board as follows:

Draft Pick Decision (on draft day) = Board Rating + Need

If the Draft Board = Scouts Ratings + Need

Then, the 1st equation becomes:

Draft Pick Decision = (Scouts Ratings + Need) + Need

Simplified, it becomes:

Draft Pick Decision = Scouts Ratings + 2x Need

The above is straight from Ciscowski in terms of what he does not want to happen.

My theory is that they are treating Coaches Input that same as they treat Need. Ciscowski already knows that Jerry will take the Coaches Input into account during the draft; therefore, he is minimizing it when creating the Draft Board.

If they did take Coaches Input into account when creating the draft board, then they would have:

Draft Pick Decision (on draft day) = Scouts Ratings + 2x Need + 2x Coaches Input

The above equation is what I believe that Ciscowski is trying to prevent.

I'm not saying that they don't take scheme into account when creating the board, just the Coaches Input on the ranking of players that do fit the scheme.

 

[hra8700]

That would be true if everybody was in agreement on the draft board; however, Kiffin/Marinelli apparently didn't rank Floyd that high.

Ciscowski has said in the past that once a scout rates a player, he does not allow them to change their grade. For this draft, the scouts had already rated players before Kiffin/Marinelli were hired.

If I were the GM, I would only want to draft players in the 1st round that both the position coach, the coordinator on that side of the ball and the scouts all agreed on.

A draft board does not have the same meaning for all teams. Based on past comments by Ciscowski, he likes to have a pure board based on the scouts ratings and without any adjustment for need because he knows that the coaches and FO will adjust the picks based on their input. It appears that some teams put those adjustments into the final draft board; whereas, the Cowboys make those adjustments during the draft.


That is according to the "old" trade chart. It would be the opposite based on most of the newer charts. Also, even people that might use the old chart, would adjust from year to year based on the talent spread. This year it was widely agreed that the talent at the top was weak compared to past drafts while the depth of the talent was better than some other years.

There are 2 primary issues in evaluating players for the draft. The 1st is how you value them for your team and the 2nd is where you expect them to be drafted. Williams was rated higher than Escobar; however, they were rated in the same tier. It is common for slightly lower rated players to be drafted ahead of higher rated players in the same tier. Usually it is based on need; however, in this case it was based on predicted availability. IMO, getting both Williams and Escobar shows that the Cowboys did their homework in regards to how other teams rated these players.

I agree, passing on Dawkins twice was odd, especially considering that they had not drafted a DL.

Again, I think it comes back to the fact that the Cowboys draft board does not have the same meaning that fans and draft analysts think it should have. It appears to be a non-adjusted board; whereas, other teams appear to have boards that are adjusted based on need and coaches input.

In the 3-4, they probably keep 4 or 5 DTs. They have:

Ratliff
Hatcher
Lissemore
at draft time they had Brian Price

They have 4 other young DTs plus DE/DT Crawford. I think they really like Price and might have taken Dawkins if Price got injured before the draft. They have now signed DE/DT Anthony Hargrove to take Price's spot on the roster.

It appears that they didn't expect a 5th/6th round DT to make the roster and went with need at LB and took Holloman. Again, the Cowboys board appears to be a pure scouts board without adjustment for need or coaches input. Need and/or coaches input were probably the deciding factor in Holloman over Dawkins.

Summary:
Ciscowski likes a pure scouts board without taking need or coaches input into account. He feels that the Front Office will take the coaches input and need into account during the draft even if they are already built into the board. This would effectively double the impact of need and coaches input.

Draft Pick Decison = Board rating + Draft time coaches input and Draft time need input

If Board rating = Scouts ratings + coaches input + need, then the final Draft Pick Decision contains 2x coaches input and 2x need.

Biggest Concern:
My biggest concern is not on the players they didn't draft but on the ones that they did draft. If Frederick was really the 3rd or 4th best interior OL and the best OC, then that is a good pick. Center is not only one of the biggest needs on the team, it is also one of the most difficult positions to fill in Free Agency.

Im sure thats true in regards to the draft boards, but I beleive very firmly that when you have a board discrepency as big as number 5 available at 18, talent outweighs need and fit. Many other teams draft this way, and I think it is the sucessful approach.

since coaches do very little scouting, i think the scouts should be trusted much more than them. Floyd was a scheme fit, he just wasnt a 3 tech in their eyes. Doesnt mean he wouldnt have been a dominant one tech. And keep on mond our one tech is over 30 and a free agent next year.

With regards to the value of the wiliams/escobar pick, i was very generous using the high 20s value at baseline. We exclude a lot of players for scheme issues. Really they were ranked top of the 2nd, something more like high 30s by the board. I agree that this being a weak top of the draft you could call floyd something like a 10 most years. But you still lose on value no matter what way you slice it.

This was an epic screw up no matter how it turns out by principle alone. Theres a reason broaddus and a bunch of his scouting contacts as well as garrett and ciskowski are upset.

Im not the type to always be mad at the team, or the type to always sugar coat. I call it like I see it, and this was a big mistake (last big mistake i remember is keeping terence newman that final year). I dont consider signing livings or bernadeau or even connor bad moves, because they werent in principle at the time.

But I beleive very firmly (as do the giants, ravens, steelers, garrett, ciskowski, as far as I can tell) that when value falls you take it despite need.

 

[DFWJC]

Every draft board has the team's current system and tendencies in mind.
That in itself takes into account need to some degree.

For example, more often than not, the Steelers will favor larger running backs.
4-3 teams will favor 4-3 players, or teams that play press coverage will favor CBs that excel in that area...etc..

The "need" part that Cistowski is referring to is not scheme based (that goes without saying), it is more in regard to the depth chart.
You may need a safety more than a QB, but if the safety is not the better prospect, he will not rate him higher than the QB just because it is a need position. That is 100% the right thing to do.

Come draft day, they have the players tiered to some degree (that comic book draft chart on the wall speaks nothing of the draft programs that they use leading up to draft day).
If 2-3 players are tiered together then the coaches may intervene to help out with need. But the coaches have had huge input already in the weeks leading up to the draft.

I would have taken Floyd without hesitation. But they did get a trade (though it was of less than ideal value) and they turned that trade into what they hope are one year one starter ina huge need area and maybe a future starter at another position.
It could have been worse...

 

[jterrell]

Every draft board has the team's current system and tendencies in mind.
That in itself takes into account need to some degree.

For example, more often than not, the Steelers will favor larger running backs.
4-3 teams will favor 4-3 players, or teams that play press coverage will favor CBs that excel in that area...etc..

The "need" part that Cistowski is referring to is not scheme based (that goes without saying), it is more in regard to the depth chart.
You may need a safety more than a QB, but if the safety is not the better prospect, he will not rate him higher than the QB just because it is a need position. That is 100% the right thing to do.

Come draft day, they have the players tiered to some degree (that comic book draft chart on the wall speaks nothing of the draft programs that they use leading up to draft day).
If 2-3 players are tiered together then the coaches may intervene to help out with need. But the coaches have had huge input already in the weeks leading up to the draft.

I would have taken Floyd without hesitation. But they did get a trade (though it was of less than ideal value) and they turned that trade into what they hope are one year one starter ina huge need area and maybe a future starter at another position.
It could have been worse...

If the Steelers hired a new HC and new offensive staff in January and drafted 4 months later do you think they'd tell the scouts not to grade any RBs until we know the new coaches also like big backs? Or would they make their grades and allow the new coaches to get familiar with the CURRENT roster thus setting need in their minds?

If they said hey, take off all guys over 250 at RB, we don't like that any more in the new system. But the top rated RB by scouts was still a 240 pounder would they re-grade him if he wasn't expected to be around in any mock draft they held? Or simply debate his selection if he was the highest rated guy on the clock?