Can Jason Campbell bounce back?

[silverbear]

I hope no one quotes the last post.

Well, you can always hope.. LOL...

The good news is, I'm not gonna respond right now, but in the near future...

 

[silverbear]

Jeez what is this, a battle on who can type the longest post

Yes...

You lose...

 

[Aikbach]

Depends on how hard he is thrown to the turf.

I beat you to it, repost.

 

[firehawk350]

Well, you can always hope.. LOL...

The good news is, I'm not gonna respond right now, but in the near future...

Yep, you gotta have a couple of hours to spare... All in good fun Anyways, it's the offseason, do we REALLY have anything better to do??? Oh wait, let's start another McFadden thread instead! Surely that topic hasn't been discussed enough...

 

[Sonny#9]

Obviously you do, because you wouldn't be so upset about the matter.

So now I have to get access to a non-Cowboys fan? I hate to tell you, but the truth hurts. Whatever your feelings for Sean Taylor are, the fact is that he led all safeties in TD's and missed tackles in 2006 according to STATS, Inc.

Again, you're the only one, anywhere, not just on a message board to say this. And when you're proven wrong, like you were above you never, ever man up and admit it. See that's why it's so nice for you -- you can claim whatever you want. And say "oh, I saw it on STATS, Inc.." So sorry if I don't buy it.

Interesting you didn't mention that Owens was far, far, far more productive than the Commanders WR's and was far more productive than Witten when it came to receiving yards and TD's. Romo had great production when throwing to the receivers, which pales in comparison to when Campbell threw to his WR's. Of course anybody can see that, unless you have Commanders fan logic.

So, what your saying is, despite Witten's 96 catches, Romo wasn't "relying" on him? Gotcha.

By the sounds of it you've never made a mistake before. Oh wait, that's already happened in your latest post several times.

You are to credibility as Jason Campbell is to clutch 4th quarter play.

Or Romo in the playoffs.

I love how Campbell will never get better, based solely on his mediocre performance to this point. So, by that logic, Romo will always be average at best after November 30th.

Call me what you want Rich, but one, I admit when I make mistakes. I almost always provide viable evidence that people can access.

I think I am going to go back to my rule of "some people just need to be ignored"








YAKUZA[/quote]

 

[Sonny#9]

On the one hand, you're right; Zorn is gonna change things up, and it will be tough to get a read on the Skins this year until the league gets some game tape on them...

This makes me nervous -- it could be the Skins take some teams by surprise until teams "get tape" on them. It could be Zorn is what Campbell needs to get over that hump.

It could also be Zorn is Rich Kotite in disguise. He's totally unknown.

OTOH, you're wrong, to say we don't know how Campbell is going to play... all we need to do is look at his record when he has thrown over 30 passes, which currently stands at 0-10... and how often did he directly sabotage Skins' comeback attempts with late game turnovers last season??

Tampa and Dallas. He didn't play well in the 1st Giants game either.

The 0-10 is an easy argument to make. Yes, he's made crucial, crucial mistake. But really, can Campbell be faulted for the loss to the Eagles? Or GB? Also, How much time is Romo going to have with Todd Wade (thank God they found Stephon Heyer!) and Jason Fabini starting on the right side?

I've said before he's made crucial mistakes, but has also shown he is capable of playing well.

This gives us some indication of his ability, or lack of same... suffice it to say, after 20 starts, his stats will have to improve to be mediocre... a career 77.3 quarterback rating is not the stuff legends are made of, particularly not when the QB posting that rating is averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt... 25 turnovers in 20 career games (19 of them in 13 games this past year) is another indication of his rather large down side...

Very mediocre numbers, I agree. This will be a big year for Campbell.

Now, is it possible that Jim Zorn will be have a positive affect on Campbell, and speed his progress?? Of course it is, but it's more possible that Campbell will struggle to learn the new system being implemented, as he has always struggled with picking up a new system... so I really don't anticipate seeing some quantum leap forward from Jason Campbell in 2008...

It's not an entirely new system. He played quite well in college in the WCO (some posters here, one in particular, love to point out he "just threw screen passes") Almost 74% of his completions went to receivers other then Williams and Brown, 2621 yards (that would be 16.8 per completion). None of those receivers are exactly household names. So he does have experience and success in the WCO.

Zorn does know QBs -- which will help. For example, Hasselbeck couldn't beat out Trent Dilfer in his early years. There are a litany of QBs that didn't have immediate success that went on to great careers. There also the David Carrs of the world.

I say this not as a Skins hater, though of course it doesn't displease me on that level, but simply because I've seen Campbell play a lot thus far early in his career, and I am singularly unimpressed...

A very even-handed analysis. While I wish Campbell came in and lit the league on fire from his 1st snap, I am not ready to write him off yet. In my opinion this is his make or break year. I'm looking for a 60% 3000+ 20 TD, 7+ ypa.

 

[1fisher]

Yep, you gotta have a couple of hours to spare... All in good fun Anyways, it's the offseason, do we REALLY have anything better to do??? Oh wait, let's start another McFadden thread instead! Surely that topic hasn't been discussed enough...

well, one things for sure! The Commanders will NOT be offseason champs this season. It appears the Raiders are goin to claim the title the skins held for what, 8 or 9 years?

:laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2:

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Again, you're the only one, anywhere, not just on a message board to say this.

No, there are others to say this as well. There's a certain poster on this board that pointed it out to me as this was happening in the 2006 season and then I checked for myself and low and behold it checked. I'd give you the poster's user name if I didn't think you would badger him over it.

And when you're proven wrong, like you were above you never, ever man up and admit it.

I admitted that I made a mistake on the ES post you were talking about in this very thread.

See that's why it's so nice for you -- you can claim whatever you want.

Yes, because claiming that Sean Taylor led safeties in TD's allowed and tackles allowed according to STATS, Inc. is just something that I conjured out of my mind for no reason. Not to mention that anybody who saw Taylor play that year could see that Taylor was pretty dreadful that season, with many Skins fans calling for his head. I cannot exactly prove this either given STATS Pass requires a password that is usually given to those in the sports media. I have a friend who works for the Associated Press. That's all the details I'm going to give because I don't want some nutjob badgering him for password access.

So, what your saying is, despite Witten's 96 catches, Romo wasn't "relying" on him? Gotcha.

Here's Commanders fan logic for you. Romo threw roughly 147 passes to Witten according to STATS, Inc and 142 passes to Owens. Owens also had 81 catches compared to Witten's 96 catches. Owens also had 15 TD's to Witten's 7 TD's. Anybody who watched the Cowboys play know that the Cowboys tried to get Owens involved heavily into the passing attack.

On the flipside, Cooley only had 22 less receiving yards and 5 more receiving TD's than Santana Moss. In fact, Cooley had more receiving TD's than the entire WR corp of the Commanders *combined*.

But, I'm guessing I'm just making this stuff up again.

I love how Campbell will never get better, based solely on his mediocre performance to this point.

I never said that with absolute certainty. My guess is that he won't. He's been unimpressive so far, there's some things with the Commanders that are likely to be possible issues in the future, and like Brunnel in '05 he basically relied on throwing short and long passes and we all know how Brunell turned out after '05.

So, by that logic, Romo will always be average at best after November 30th.

Perhaps. He hasn't been that impressive after November 30th so far. If somebody felt that way, I could understand where they are coming from.

Call me what you want Rich, but one, I admit when I make mistakes.

That's because you make a lot of them.

I think I am going to go back to my rule of "some people just need to be ignored"

Please do.







YAKUZA








YAKUZA[/quote]

 

[Sonny#9]

No, there are others to say this as well. There's a certain poster on this board that pointed it out to me as this was happening in the 2006 season and then I checked for myself and low and behold it checked. I'd give you the poster's user name if I didn't think you would badger him over it.

Yes, a truly reliable source.

I admitted that I made a mistake on the ES post you were talking about in this very thread.

I didn't see it. Post the link and I will apologize. You do know how to post a link right? (Considering I've never seen you post one).

Yes, because claiming that Sean Taylor led safeties in TD's allowed and tackles allowed according to STATS, Inc. is just something that I conjured out of my mind for no reason. Not to mention that anybody who saw Taylor play that year could see that Taylor was pretty dreadful that season, with many Skins fans calling for his head. I cannot exactly prove this either given STATS Pass requires a password that is usually given to those in the sports media. I have a friend who works for the Associated Press. That's all the details I'm going to give because I don't want some nutjob badgering him for password access.

Yes, b/c I have nothing better to do with my time. It's really not that important to me. I just like bringing it up b/c it spins you off in a desperate attempt to get me to believe you. It's funny actually. And has the opposite effect.

Here's Commanders fan logic for you. Romo threw roughly 147 passes to Witten according to STATS, Inc and 142 passes to Owens. Owens also had 81 catches compared to Witten's 96 catches. Owens also had 15 TD's to Witten's 7 TD's. Anybody who watched the Cowboys play know that the Cowboys tried to get Owens involved heavily into the passing attack.

So how is that not relying on Witten -- he caught more passes and had more passed throw to him? I thought relying on a TE was a bad thing...

On the flipside, Cooley only had 22 less receiving yards and 5 more receiving TD's than Santana Moss. In fact, Cooley had more receiving TD's than the entire WR corp of the Commanders *combined*.

But, I'm guessing I'm just making this stuff up again.

So what does that have to do with your original point of relying on a TE being a bad thing?

I never said that with absolute certainty. My guess is that he won't. He's been unimpressive so far, there's some things with the Commanders that are likely to be possible issues in the future, and like Brunnel in '05 he basically relied on throwing short and long passes and we all know how Brunell turned out after '05.

Did you really just compare a Campbell to Brunell? Brunell was on the downside of his career. Campbell is 26. 11 years younger than Brunell. That's laughable. You're great Rich, don't ever change. You provide hours of entertainment.

 

[Sonny#9]

well, one things for sure! The Commanders will NOT be offseason champs this season.

Thank GOD! And truth be told -- they weren't last year either. They haven't had a big offseason since the Lloyd/Archuletta/Duckett disaster

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I didn't see it. Post the link and I will apologize. You do know how to post a link right? (Considering I've never seen you post one)....

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1998845#post1998845

"I made a mistake by taking somebody's word for it and I still kept posting at ES after making the mistake." - Me

So how is that not relying on Witten -- he caught more passes and had more passed throw to him? I thought relying on a TE was a bad thing

Owens had a lot more yards and more than twice the TD receptions than Witten. It's far easier to throw to a tight end than a wide receiver because wide receivers generally run longer pass patterns. So having more receptions than Owens isn't relying on Witten when Owens has far more yards and TD's. When Romo wanted to make the biggest pass play possible, he usually went to Owens for that. Anybody who watched the Cowboys for even the briefest of moments could see the Romo relied on Owens to get the offense rolling, not Witten (outside of the Detroit game). Anybody who watched Campbell play could see Campbell look for Cooley on most of the passing plays.

So what does that have to do with your original point of relying on a TE being a bad thing?

Cooley was Campbell's first option as shown by Cooley having only 22 yards less receiving and far more TD's than Washington's #1 WR.

Did you really just compare a Campbell to Brunell? Brunell was on the downside of his career. Campbell is 26. 11 years younger than Brunell. That's laughable. You're great Rich, don't ever change. You provide hours of entertainment.

I compared them in style, not age. Of course you laughed it off when I said that Brunnel's strength was throwing screens and the deep ball in 2005 and that could work against him in 2006...which it did and you are still arguing that point despite Brunnel being benched in 2006, not playing in 2007 and now with the Saints.

I guess when you mean ignoring people you mean ignoring what they are saying and just making stuff up for them.





YAKUZA

 

[silverbear]

You should probably limit just about every back's carries to 300-325 or so. I think his problem is he was misused under Gibbs in that they wanted a power back so Portis put on 10-20 pounds and it messed with his explosiveness. I think if he takes that weight off, he could be in the top 3 undoubtedly.

I actually think the added bulk is good for him...

I agree, but how many do you take away from Portis? I would like 20-25 to Portis and 10 to Betts, but that's just a guideline. It's hard to really say honestly.

That would work out to 480 to 560 carries, just for your tailbacks, which means 550-600 carries as a team for the season... somehow, I don't see the Skins running the ball quite that much...

I'd aim more for 275-280 carries for Portis, 100-125 carries for Betts...

Questionable sexuality, have you SEEN Terry Glenn? Kidding, I read an interesting article about that actually (Cooley's pants). Apparently it really increases mobility and is a lot cooler (in the strictly literal sense of the word). A lot of the guys said if they had the guts, they would wear them (including Jon Jansen and he's the consummate country boy). A lot of the girls I know around this area think they are hot too. I'd say he's a fav among a lot of the younger female fans.

Yeah, for some reason the young girls always go for the gay guys... LOL...

Jansen's right, no heterosexual male would be caught dead in those shorts...

But of course, I'm just havin' some fun here, Cooley can be as gay as Richard Simmons if he wants to be...

Either way, I'm a bit more knowledgable than my bro about football

Chuckle... then you probably don't want to tell him about this board, he'd just get eaten alive in here...

so I kind of let him know who the Boys are picking up, letting go, scheme changes and all that action and most of the time, he's like, WHO?! What does that mean exactly??? So I try to be objective as possible and give him the plus/minuses of the move. I realize that I can't be objective completely but I try.

I do the same for a lot of my friends who are Skins fans... some fans just don't follow the game as closely as a lot of us on these boards do...

 

[silverbear]

Well I heard he's only going to be there for passing downs. They'd put him, Carter, Wilson (who is going to do real well I think) and maybe Griffin on the line. Of course, that's supposing we pick up a DE which is supposedly a big priority of ours. Who knows?

I'd definitely say y'all ought to look closely at adding a DE...

I don't think there are any vets out there right now, available not via trade,

There's your key, right there... I have a hunch that Jerry's talk about a "wow offensive player" involves a trade for a name WR... that's because even now that all the wideouts worth a hammered crap are off the board, he's still talking in interviews about that "wow offensive player", but at the same time, he has been pretty clear that he's not looking to trade up for Darren McFadden...

My dream is that he's tryin' to pry Roy Williams loose from the Lions...

 

[silverbear]

Well, as we are turning down the rheotric... Either way, these posts are getting LONG... Oh well, let's get this going.

I rarely spend as much time on a post as I did on that one response to you... I must have researched and typed for 3 hours on that one, LOL...

We'll see, I think it a bit too early to start making predictions. After all the coaching turnover, the ability of Zorn to develop and relay his version of the WCO, it could be a horrible year and we are in a transition phase. However, sometimes a guy is just a better candidate and just does better things with the roster and he might be able to get everyone to a new level. Who knows?

I'm just not sold on Zorn, at all... I was quite shocked when the Skins announced him as head coach...

I'm hoping we do better without Brandon Lloyd being a loser on the sideline, addition by subtraction. What an embarrassment.

Not one of the Skins' more astute moves...

I agree that the momentum or emotion drained in Seattle. I think we were playing above our level and eventually just burnt out. We could only ride that emotional wave for so long.

That's pretty much my take on their late-season rally... you get props for recognizing, and admitting, that...

That's the thing about the draft, you could have to cut all but one or two players (Pats) or you could have 6 or 7 guys contribute, it's really impossible to say. However, there are a lot of guys (rookies and 2nd year players) that are on the team that Skins fans are excited about. HB Blades at MLB (almost a clone of Fletcher and the guy I think we targeted to learn under him... almost resembles a plan actually), Lorenzo Alexander at OG (supposedly by far the strongest dude on the team and just an animaL), Heyer (everyone knows about him), Anthony Montgomery (dude had physical tools, just not his head in the game, worked hard and was doing REALLY well), Chris Wilson (notched 5 sacks I believe in his rookie year as a DE).

I like Montgomery and Wilson, but I'm not really impressed with the others you cited...

We'll see with Zorn. He seems like he shoots straight from the hip, so I'm hoping he can motivate them from the get-go.

He didn't really have a rep as a "motivator" up in Seattle...

Hey, given we were on 3rd string and the UDFA rookie was playing a good DE, it's solid. A lot of vets have problems with Kerney. Would you feel solid if you had to play McQuistan against Kerney? Chances are he'd struggle too.

To be candid with you, I look at Heyer and I see the second coming of Rob Pettiti...

You cite a total of 15 yards over the whole season as evidence that you were superior?

Actually, I cite is evidence that we weren't INFERIOR, which was what you suggested... well, we lost as many games by our starting corners as y'all did, but we didn't put up inferior numbers, rather we put up slightly better numbers...

And a lot of games I can remember Henry or Newman didn't start but ended up getting significant action.

Newman played in two games he didn't start, Henry played in three... in both cases, they were coming back from injuries, so although they played, they weren't at 100 per cent...

I believe the Skins are citing cornerback as one of their need areas as well though. I am among those. As a matter of fact, I think we are targeting a CB at 21.

The Skins have a strong need at CB, but I'll bet they go either DL or WR (a big WR) in the first...

Doughty was victimized a bit in his first start but he shored it up quite a bit from there. In week 17, against the Boys, he was able to get to a well-placed pass 20 yards down the field against Jason Witten, who has victimized much better safeties than him. I know it's only one play, but I don't remember him a part of too many plays and for a DB, that isn't too bad of a thing.

Doughty will always be a liability in coverage, he's just not fast enough... he's a tackling machine, I like the guy, but he's the kind of player you want for depth, and for his special teams ability... if you need him to start, your team is in some trouble...

It is more indicative of a more popular base of players.

Yeah, because the Cowboys have been winning SOOOOO much in recent years...

So we are a whole year older huh? I fail to see the big deal in that.

But that's just in the STARTERS, pal... you and I both know that when you factor in the depth on both teams, our average age drops more than yours does... we have more young players that we have drafted, and a few that we signed as undrafted rookies, than you do...

Huh??? Didn't you just say that a year was a significant advantage? Yet Adams is 2 years older than Samuels and a year older than Jansen and Thomas.

And he's at, or near, the top of his game...

Anyways, I think Adams has a year or two before there's a decline and another 2 before he becomes below average, so that gives you 3 or 4 years of productivity. So Jansen and Samuels have 4/5 and 5/6 which is plenty of time to find a suitable replacement.

This assumes that each player ages at the same rate... well, Jansen looks like he's breaking down more often than either of the other two, suggesting that he's actually aging a bit more...

A player's chronological age does not determine his longevity in the NFL, Jackie Slater played and played well until he was in his 40s... but Larry Allen, who was an even better lineman in his prime, was pretty much out of gas by the time he was what, 35??

Randy Thomas plays guard so his effective time is different. He doesn't need much speed at guard.

Actually, as often as the Skins' guards are called on to execute Counter Trey, they need to be able to run pretty well...

Either way, since we are going with who is supposed to be starting next year (which is how you put the Skins) so it doesn't bear to disinclude Glenn and include Jansen and Thomas given they both pretty much missed all of last year.

Hey, I went with the depth charts on NFL.com, right down the line, with the exception of Oliver Hoyte at FB for the Cowboys... since he's no longer with the team, I moved Deon Anderson up the depth chart...

Question regarding the number though, did you make Glenn or Crayton the starter?

Crayton, because he IS the starter...

Chris Samuels has missed half the games as Flozell Adams and that bears mentioning too.

Adams has played 10 seasons, and played all 16 games in 9 of those 10 seasons... in 2005, he missed the last 10 games of the season, the only games he's missed in his career...

In 8 seasons, Samuels has played all 16 games 6 times... in two seasons, he has missed 3 games and 1 games...

I'd say both players have proven to be pretty durable...

Of course you're literally and semantically correct. That's not the point. When you say below average, you are implying that he is bad when that is the case.

I think you'll find that I'm fairly precise when it comes to choosing my words, most of the time, so when I say "below average", I mean "below average"... I was quite capable of saying "bad", if I felt that was the case...

A lot of QBs aren't productive over the first 20 games. Didn't Troy Aikman really struggle in his first year or two? IF message boards were around back then, I bet there was an exact opposite debate. Of course we know how that turns out. Most QBs start out slow. Very few come out and tear up the league.

In his first year as a starter, Aikman had a 55.7 QBR; in his second year, it was up to 66.6; by his third season, it was up to 86.7... IOW, we saw steady, sustained improvement in him...

Campbell's numbers last year were a LITTLE better than the year before, but not significantly so... we didn't really see much improvement from year 1 to year 2...

True, but he won it and played well.

Now we're back into semantic arguments; winning it and playing reasonably well is not quite the same thing as the Skins putting the game on his arm, is it??

See, I don't think pass attempts are a great indicator of aggressiveness. I think passing 20 times deep and intermediate is more aggressive than just passing 30 times. Sounds like he did a lot better though. No fumbles lost, 3 INTs and 5 TDs. Hey, haven't you just discounted YPA (or you do further down) as a very good stat. It was in a comparison to Romo, I know that. Yet, a lot of your criticism comes from YPA.

I merely changed the YPA to YPC in that case because YPA is affected by completion percentage, YPC is not... so in the context of the argument I was making, about Romo looking downfield more than Campbell was allowed to, the YPC stat was more relevant...

I could have chosen to use the number of 20 yards plus completions, and 40 yards plus completions, as a percentage of each QB's total attempts, as a barometer for that comparison too...

Hardly his fault, we had a horrible time with one of the LBs, who caused every fumble. He was badly harrassed that game and nobody decided to help him out. But in a game like that, you're right, everybody sucked.

I like those stats better (even though the QB rating was slightly lower). His fumbles are a problem but hardly one that is uncurable.

We Cowboys fans used to say that about Chad Hutchinson, but he never did overcome his fumblitis... some QBs don't... there's a lesson in that for you...

And again, we just went over it game by game. Sometimes the stats add up and equals what you think it should, sometimes it doesn't.

Actually, all you did by way of rebuttal was try to minimize Jason's blunders, by pointing out others'...

Trust me, we aren't ignoring what he has done wrong. He's just done enough right, given his experience, to warrant a look at 2008.

Again, that sounds remarkably like what we Cowboys fans were saying about Quincy Carter after the 2003 season... he'd done just enough to get some of us (me included) excited, but he kept on making bad mistakes...

Of course, the fans are fickle. I'll default to Zorn's judgment until it becomes crunch time.

I'd say you ought to wait until Zorn has given you reason to have faith in his judgement before giving him that deference... he's never been called on to make the decisions a head coach has to make daily...

Hasselbeck has directly attributed his rise to stardom to Zorn. That's why I want to compare the two. If Zorn can make Jason match Hasselbeck's growth in the system then obviously it's a good chance that Jason can continue that trend.

This can only happen if Campbell can also match Hasselbeck's TALENT... you seem to think that Matt was a bum until Zorn got hold of him, but he was always a pretty talented QB...

We'll see, he's got all physical tools

Then why is he so inaccurate on the short stuff??

That's wierd, NFL.com has 2700 yards, 20 TDs and 7 INTs as his stat line for his senior year. Interesting. So did he play 27 games or what? Confusing I tell you! What's your source?

This one's my bad, the link I followed took me to Jason's stats for his junior season (2003), and I just didn't notice it...

But aren't those 3 in the last 4-5 years?

2003, 2005, and 2007... that's every other year, not "perennial"...

Never heard that. I'm interested. Linky goodness?

Can't find it, I first read it just before the 05 draft... so you'll have to figure out for yourself if you think I'm the kind of guy who would make crap up just to get over in an online argument...

I'm hardly a JC fan. I want him to work it out, that's obvious. He frustrates me but just for now, I withhold judgment. I have to let him develop. Maybe that is it, if so, then I have no problem looking in another direction.

Well, I certainly understand why you're eager to have him develop... I just honestly don't think he'll ever rise above a certain level of mediocrity...

 

[silverbear]

This makes me nervous -- it could be the Skins take some teams by surprise until teams "get tape" on them. It could be Zorn is what Campbell needs to get over that hump.

It could also be Zorn is Rich Kotite in disguise. He's totally unknown.

Well said, Sonny... I agree with this take...

The 0-10 is an easy argument to make.

If it was just a few games, it would be statistically insignificant... first off, QBs don't throw a lot unless they've fallen behind in the first place, so you'd expect to lose a majority of those games...

But 0-10?? If it was 2-8, 3-7, that would be reasonable, but ten games in a row is an unmistakable trend...

I've said before he's made crucial mistakes, but has also shown he is capable of playing well.

He is, but quarterbacks who play well in stretches, then make critical mistakes, don't often last long in the NFL...

Zorn does know QBs -- which will help. For example, Hasselbeck couldn't beat out Trent Dilfer in his early years. There are a litany of QBs that didn't have immediate success that went on to great careers. There also the David Carrs of the world.

Exactly-- some quarterbacks develop, some don't... but the ones who develop generally show more progress from season to season than Jason showed from his first year starting to his second...

A very even-handed analysis. While I wish Campbell came in and lit the league on fire from his 1st snap, I am not ready to write him off yet. In my opinion this is his make or break year. I'm looking for a 60% 3000+ 20 TD, 7+ ypa.

I'll be astounded if he makes that last stat...

 

[firehawk350]

I actually think the added bulk is good for him...



That would work out to 480 to 560 carries, just for your tailbacks, which means 550-600 carries as a team for the season... somehow, I don't see the Skins running the ball quite that much...

I'd aim more for 275-280 carries for Portis, 100-125 carries for Betts...

I agree with the added bulk, but I'd go more for WAS good for him. In Gibbs power running he needed some additional bulk but supposedly he needs more speed and explosiveness in the new system so I think he should get back to Denver weight.

Probably not that much, but I'd def give Portis more than 20 and let Betts take the rest. I admit, I just throw out some numbers there.

Yeah, for some reason the young girls always go for the gay guys... LOL...

Jansen's right, no heterosexual male would be caught dead in those shorts...

But of course, I'm just havin' some fun here, Cooley can be as gay as Richard Simmons if he wants to be...

Hahahaha, its true, so true... I personally have no problem with gay guys, whatever floats your boat, or sinks it...

Chuckle... then you probably don't want to tell him about this board, he'd just get eaten alive in here...

I don't think so actually, he's smart enough to know what he doesn't know and would probably, at least until he learned more, just be one of those guys that gave his opinion as just a, hey, this is just me but... and just ask questions. This board, and a handful of others, usually are pretty good to guys that don't follow it with quite the fervor that the rest of us do.

I do the same for a lot of my friends who are Skins fans... some fans just don't follow the game as closely as a lot of us on these boards do...

Well done kind sir, well done..

 

[firehawk350]

I'd definitely say y'all ought to look closely at adding a DE...

I've agreed since 06... No need to reach though, I don't see a DE (other than Long and Gholston, and if either drop to 15 or so, I wouldn't be opposed to trading up to get them) worthy of a first. Other than that, I don't see a single FA that could help us.

There's your key, right there... I have a hunch that Jerry's talk about a "wow offensive player" involves a trade for a name WR... that's because even now that all the wideouts worth a hammered crap are off the board, he's still talking in interviews about that "wow offensive player", but at the same time, he has been pretty clear that he's not looking to trade up for Darren McFadden...

My dream is that he's tryin' to pry Roy Williams loose from the Lions...

Honestly, despite what was said, I think it would take plenty of compensation. Man, imagine the confusion in the locker room though, hey, ROY... uh, WILLIAMS... uh, what's your middle names?

I think, if it was me, I would keep Roy Williams on my roster if for no other reason than to let Calvin Johnson develop without first having to be "the guy".

I rarely spend as much time on a post as I did on that one response to you... I must have researched and typed for 3 hours on that one, LOL...

Hahah, yup, sounds about right. I had to split my attention between two things, so I was closer to about 4 hours.

I'm just not sold on Zorn, at all... I was quite shocked when the Skins announced him as head coach...

I can count the number of people who weren't shocked on one hand. Danny and Vinny... I've heard good things from some of the guys around Zorn, he seems like a sharp guy.

Not one of the Skins' more astute moves...

I regrettably count myself as one of those excited when he came here. Saw that highlight reel on youtube and thought, HELL YEAH, that's what we need!

That's pretty much my take on their late-season rally... you get props for recognizing, and admitting, that...

Yeah, we beat some good (and hot, in Minny's case) teams convincingly. Nobody does that for very long. I think, in the Skins case, as long as we are within a game or two of .500 in December, we have a chance to go to the playoffs. We just seem to catch fire then.

I like Montgomery and Wilson, but I'm not really impressed with the others you cited...

Wilson is good enough as a 3rd down guy, but I don't see him ever in run support (way too light). So at best, he's a role player. Monty is obviously going to be real good. A bargain as a 5th rounder. I think HB Blades is going to be real good too, he had a great camp last year. Still, I'd like to see him in some game action this year. Just heard Lorenzo Alexander is still doing both D and OL so I don't think they think he's the answer there. Who knows???

He didn't really have a rep as a "motivator" up in Seattle...

To be candid with you, I look at Heyer and I see the second coming of Rob Pettiti...

All just supposition at this point. Who knows...

Actually, I cite is evidence that we weren't INFERIOR, which was what you suggested... well, we lost as many games by our starting corners as y'all did, but we didn't put up inferior numbers, rather we put up slightly better numbers...

Newman played in two games he didn't start, Henry played in three... in both cases, they were coming back from injuries, so although they played, they weren't at 100 per cent...

I look at our two situations at corner and here's what I think. Newman is better than Springs and Henry is a wash with Rogers (when he went out, he was playing great). Smoot is considerably better than Reeves was and probably better, at least for the first year, than anyone you can bring in at this point. JMO.

The Skins have a strong need at CB, but I'll bet they go either DL or WR (a big WR) in the first...

I don't think the value is there at DL. WR is awash with guys that have similiar value (ie, a late first) so chances are one will slip to the second. I can see us picking Limas Sweed in the first, but I think we'll go CB if DRC or McKelvin drops. I also like Talib too. I think it all depends on where the value is.

Doughty will always be a liability in coverage, he's just not fast enough... he's a tackling machine, I like the guy, but he's the kind of player you want for depth, and for his special teams ability... if you need him to start, your team is in some trouble...

I think we'll be okay with him starting. He's going to be fine there, we just need to keep our eye open for somebody else.

Yeah, because the Cowboys have been winning SOOOOO much in recent years...

But that's just in the STARTERS, pal... you and I both know that when you factor in the depth on both teams, our average age drops more than yours does... we have more young players that we have drafted, and a few that we signed as undrafted rookies, than you do...

Just curious, but I can't remember a single UDFA that has contributed for you guys. Refresh my memory...

And he's at, or near, the top of his game...

I think his play dropped off a bit this last year personally. I think he's looking better because Romo was sitting back there as opposed to Bledsoe.

This assumes that each player ages at the same rate... well, Jansen looks like he's breaking down more often than either of the other two, suggesting that he's actually aging a bit more...

A player's chronological age does not determine his longevity in the NFL, Jackie Slater played and played well until he was in his 40s... but Larry Allen, who was an even better lineman in his prime, was pretty much out of gas by the time he was what, 35??

Jansen has had a bad rash of injuries but I think most of them are just bad luck. He didn't miss a game up until 2004. Still, it may take it's toll. Samuels is still a beast.

Actually, as often as the Skins' guards are called on to execute Counter Trey, they need to be able to run pretty well...

Hey, I went with the depth charts on NFL.com, right down the line, with the exception of Oliver Hoyte at FB for the Cowboys... since he's no longer with the team, I moved Deon Anderson up the depth chart...

They did under Gibbs. We'll see what Zorn brings to the table as far as running goes.

Crayton, because he IS the starter...

I can see that. So what do you think is going to happen with Glenn?

Adams has played 10 seasons, and played all 16 games in 9 of those 10 seasons... in 2005, he missed the last 10 games of the season, the only games he's missed in his career...

In 8 seasons, Samuels has played all 16 games 6 times... in two seasons, he has missed 3 games and 1 games...

I'd say both players have proven to be pretty durable...

I agree.

I think you'll find that I'm fairly precise when it comes to choosing my words, most of the time, so when I say "below average", I mean "below average"... I was quite capable of saying "bad", if I felt that was the case...

If you say so. I just think the term is subjective if you don't use it in it's mathematical sense, so maybe we're arguing over the wrong thing?

In his first year as a starter, Aikman had a 55.7 QBR; in his second year, it was up to 66.6; by his third season, it was up to 86.7... IOW, we saw steady, sustained improvement in him...

Campbell's numbers last year were a LITTLE better than the year before, but not significantly so... we didn't really see much improvement from year 1 to year 2...

Keep in mind that JC started on a team whose season was over in the first year. For most purposes, you could say 2007 was his first real year starting. We'll see what Campbell can do next year, and again, if he doesn't show improvement, I think we may have to look somewhere else.

Now we're back into semantic arguments; winning it and playing reasonably well is not quite the same thing as the Skins putting the game on his arm, is it??

True... Washington ran a scheme that isn't predicated on putting it all on the QB though. There was a lot wrong with the offensive side of the ball last year and Jason wasn't chief among those.

I merely changed the YPA to YPC in that case because YPA is affected by completion percentage, YPC is not... so in the context of the argument I was making, about Romo looking downfield more than Campbell was allowed to, the YPC stat was more relevant...

I could have chosen to use the number of 20 yards plus completions, and 40 yards plus completions, as a percentage of each QB's total attempts, as a barometer for that comparison too...

Again, Romo has TO. Take away TO and Romo will look like a completely different QB. Just like you took TO away from Garcia or McNabb and suddenly the pro-bowls stopped coming.

We Cowboys fans used to say that about Chad Hutchinson, but he never did overcome his fumblitis... some QBs don't... there's a lesson in that for you...

Some do though, Rypien comes to mind immediately. It was a knock on him coming out of college though, so we'll see.

Actually, all you did by way of rebuttal was try to minimize Jason's blunders, by pointing out others'...

LIkewise, you seem to want to blame it all on JC. I think a majority of the blame of the offensive mediocrity goes on the coaching staff. You had about 3 people in the playcalling process and I bet every one of them had something to say to Campbell. I like that Zorn has come in and taken control personally.

Again, that sounds remarkably like what we Cowboys fans were saying about Quincy Carter after the 2003 season... he'd done just enough to get some of us (me included) excited, but he kept on making bad mistakes...

That's a trait of young QBs though. Some learn, some don't. I think you just make that comparison because that was the last young QB you had playing on your team. Romo spent 4 years sitting and came on with TO in the offense, so he didn't have the same learning curve.

I'd say you ought to wait until Zorn has given you reason to have faith in his judgement before giving him that deference... he's never been called on to make the decisions a head coach has to make daily...

He might be a bad HC (or might not), but I don't think anybody can argue that he doesn't know the QB position.

This can only happen if Campbell can also match Hasselbeck's TALENT... you seem to think that Matt was a bum until Zorn got hold of him, but he was always a pretty talented QB...

It's hard to get a handle on Hasselbeck before he went to Seattle as he only got 29 passes, in presumably mop-up duty, over 2 years. He went to Seattle and posted a 70 QB rating and then got immediately better (87) the next year. We'll see how that helps him.

Then why is he so inaccurate on the short stuff??

I don't think he's all that bad on the short stuff. I think he tries to force it in too much and rockets it and that hurts the WR ability to adjust but he was accurate in the college WCO so...

This one's my bad, the link I followed took me to Jason's stats for his junior season (2003), and I just didn't notice it...

No big deal. You had me do a double take though, I was like, ***?!

2003, 2005, and 2007... that's every other year, not "perennial"...

Literary license anybody? He probably would have made it in 06 if he didn't injure his shoulder, or wrist or something like that.

Can't find it, I first read it just before the 05 draft... so you'll have to figure out for yourself if you think I'm the kind of guy who would make crap up just to get over in an online argument...

No, I don't think so but there's a chance you may have been mistaken. When I get more time, I'll see what I can dig up.

Well, I certainly understand why you're eager to have him develop... I just honestly don't think he'll ever rise above a certain level of mediocrity...

Again, I think he has a year because if we do lay a stinker this year and JC hasn't done better, Zorn may be looking at a blue-chip guy and may be very inclined to get him. Zorn may also be in the hot seat by year 2/3 so you know he wants to make sure he has a guy he can win with. A good QB makes all the difference.

 

[kapolani]

Just curious, but I can't remember a single UDFA that has contributed for you guys. Refresh my memory...

Tony Romo...

1) Jason is inaccurate. Jason dramatically improved his completion percentage from 53.1% in 2006 to 60% in 2007. In the old days, 60% was quite good. Today 60% is merely adequate. 65% or more is what a difference-maker will complete. But accuracy is not just about catches and incompletions, and is not what is most worrisome here. This statistic has as much to do with receiver drops, reading defenses, and other issues. No, the complaint here is about simply putting the ball on target.

Far to many of Jason’s passes, especially on short and medium passes force the receiver to make dramatic adjustments to the ball. This turns what should be routine catch & run completions into difficult acrobatic receptions with little to no RAC (Run After Catch) yards. Jason flashes insane accuracy on some difficult passes, such as some of the intermediate and deep fades he threw in 2007 wherein the pass was dropped perfectly onto the outside shoulder of the receiver and was thrown early, well before the safety could get over to help. However, Jason has yet to show the ability to consistently place the ball right in the receivers frame without forcing him to break stride. The WCO demands this of its quarterbacks.

2) Jason has a slow delivery. This is another area that Jason showed major improvement in from 2006 to 2007, but more progress needs to be made. Jason is a long-armed QB, and this problem seems common to many similarly built QBs. Jason has a tendency to take the ball DOWN as he cocks his arm back at the start of his throwing motion, and arguably cocks his arm to far back. This is a very natural feeling motion, creating a windmill windup that feels like it is helping the power of the throw.

In fact, the extra motion exposes the ball to backside rushers resulting in strips. Jason was tied for 2nd for the most fumbles with Eli Manning in 2007 with 13. Only Jon Kitna with 16 had more. With only 13 starts, Jason started the 2nd fewest games of any QB with double digit fumbles (Josh McCown of OAK being the fewest). This is despite having the 12th lowest sack percentage. Those statistics certainly don’t prove causation, and the sack percentage is a mediocre stat for measuring pressure, but I think it does paint the picture that Jason fumbled more often than average when contacted, and there is reason to believe his windup throwing motion was a major contributing factor.

The extra motion also slows the ball’s delivery. While Jason’s ample arm strength can make up for this delay on longer passes, a slower delivery gives the defenders an extra moment to react, reducing yards after catch and possibly allowing them to contest the reception.

It is also likely that the extra motion is impairing his accuracy. The more exaggerated a movement is, the more natural variation is going to creep in. Any golfer can can attest that a few centimeters or degrees in a swing can change the trajectory of the ball by yards, and the principle is the same (though less dramatic) in a passing motion.

3) Jason does not make quick decisions or anticipate receivers coming uncovered as well as a West Coast QB will need. Watching the difference in playing style between Todd Collins and Jason, one can draw a pretty safe comparison and see that Jason was tending to drop back and watch for open receivers, while Todd Collins was dropping back, analyzing the defense and making his decision before the receiver uncovered.

He knew from the responsibilities, or how the coverage was shaded one way or another who was going to come open and when. He could throw the ball so that when the receiver turned to find the football it was already halfway there. Close enough that the defense had not had time to close the separation yet. The results are uncontested catches and great run after catch opportunities. Jason has flashed this a few times on some short out routes and slants, but has not done it with consistency.

 

[Sonny#9]

Well said, Sonny... I agree with this take...

Oh yeah I forgot -- at least he's not Fassel!!

If it was just a few games, it would be statistically insignificant... first off, QBs don't throw a lot unless they've fallen behind in the first place, so you'd expect to lose a majority of those games...

But 0-10?? If it was 2-8, 3-7, that would be reasonable, but ten games in a row is an unmistakable trend...

My point is, in several of those games, Campbell made the plays to win the game -- only to have defense (Philly, as well as over-conservative playcalling), receivers (GB) let him down. Would Romo be as effective w/o Witten or TO? Of course not. Campbell is throwing to diminutive receivers who haven't been able to stay healthy. A very good example is McNabb w/ and a/o TO -- there is a big, big difference.

He is, but quarterbacks who play well in stretches, then make critical mistakes, don't often last long in the NFL...

Unless they improve. Although Campbell hasn't been bad, more average. You and I agree Campbell needs to improve.

Exactly-- some quarterbacks develop, some don't... but the ones who develop generally show more progress from season to season than Jason showed from his first year starting to his second...

I did a cursory search on Pro Football Reference.com. There are a several -- Brees, Hasselbeck, McNair, etc. Brees was so bad to the point the Chargers drafted his replacement. So it isn't unheard of. He could also be Byron Leftwich. I think any predictions at this point are more wishful thinking -- me wanting him to succeed, you wanting him to fail miserably.

I'll be astounded if he makes that last stat...

I should have added a caveat: If they get a Malcom Kelly or Limas Sweed (although I get a wierd Rod Gardner vibe from him -- I don't know why) in the draft. I don't see him improving that much with the current slate of receivers. Unless, of course, Zorn does with Campbell what he did with Hasslebeck. Especially the slip-and-slide drill

 

[Hostile]

Just curious, but I can't remember a single UDFA that has contributed for you guys. Refresh my memory.

Holy cow man. Tony Romo leaps to mind immediately for the current team. We've also had decent contributions from Miles Austin and Sam Hurd at WR. Stephen Bowen played well last year. Tony Curtis at TE has been decent. J.P. Ladoucer is one of the better Long Snappers in the NFL. Our Punter Matt McBriar is one of the best in the game.

All time, no team has had more success with UDFA signings than the Cowboys.

Cliff Harris
Drew Pearson
Bill Bates
Everson Walls

That's just 4 guys. There have been many others.