Can we discuss that play call? (56 yd FG)

[Toruk_Makto]

What is the data on this?

It's everywhere.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1652308-are-nfl-teams-making-a-mistake-by-punting-on-4th-down

http://********.com/5948322/the-two...t-explain-why-nfl-coaches-punt-on-fourth-down

 

[Doomsay]

I'm talking about how he was kicking in pregame. And, yes. And you're wrong about it not being common practice. It's common in pregame for the coach and kicker to talk about his confidence level from whatever distance he's hitting at pregame and using that as the outer-range for a fg attempt during the game. Garrett's said as much after long kicks in previous circumstances, so I'm sure this was part of the basis for the decision today. If you think about it, it only makes sense.

Doesn't make sense, he's never kicked anything close to 56 yds in a game - a real coach wouldn't have banked on a lottery outcome unless it was an act of desperation at the end of either half.

Kickers boom it from 60 yds + all the time pre-game, that has little correlation to what they are asked to do in the succeeding four quarters with guys blocking them and stuff..

 

[Idgit]

It's everywhere.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1652308-are-nfl-teams-making-a-mistake-by-punting-on-4th-down

http://********.com/5948322/the-two...t-explain-why-nfl-coaches-punt-on-fourth-down

Yeah, I think this is pretty well established.

 

[DallasCowboysRule!]

I would have punted and attempted to pin them deep. A miss gives them the ball at the 46 which is much too good field position to give an NFL offense in a tight game. On the flip side, if you fail on pinning them deep and end up with a touchback you at least gain about 20 yards of field position. Punting is the least risky option in that situation and I tend to think that in a tight game you want your play calling to reflect a philosophy of not beating yourself by giving your opponent an unnecessary advantage.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Yeah, I think this is pretty well established.

Which is why i'm shocked at all these people wanting to meekly send the punt team out there.

 

[Idgit]

Doesn't make sense, he's never kicked anything close to 56 yds in a game - a real coach wouldn't have banked on a lottery outcome unless it was an act of desperation at the end of either half.

Kickers boom it from 60 yds + all the time pre-game, that has little correlation to what they are asked to do in the succeeding four quarters with guys blocking them and stuff..

It makes sense to me.

Obviously, the pregame kicks they use to set their range for the day take into account the kicking angle they'll need to clear the defensive line. But you have to know how far you can make it on a given day at altitude, with a cold ball, with the wind in your face, with the wind at your back, whatever.

And kickers do set career bests sometime. Each time they do it, it's because a coach took a chance based off of how they were kicking them in the pregame.

 

[Idgit]

Which is why i'm shocked at all these people wanting to meekly send the punt team out there.

We should have gone for it.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

We should have gone for it.

Yep. Though most analysis is for 4th and 5 or less...

What's funny is the worst call is punting...and that's what people are so adamant we should have done.

Just goes to show the education of the fanbase.

The base that always has all the right answers after the fact.

Always sees Murray's hole from the couch.

Always knows the right play call from Madden sessions.

Always knows what is or isn't a penalty from their time playing flag football.

 

[Idgit]

Yep. Though most analysis is for 4th and 5 or less...

What's funny is the worst call is punting...and that's what people are so adamant we should have done.

Just goes to show the education of the fanbase.

The base that always has all the right answers after the fact.

Always sees Murray's hole from the couch.

Always knows the right play call from Madden sessions.

Always knows what is or isn't a penalty from their time playing flag football.

The consensus is 'punt' because we kicked it and missed. They're second-guessing the coaching decision, so they're going to go as conservative to get as much emotional distance as possible from the call on the field. Saying the fg was a disaster and we should have thrown it on 4th and 6 doesn't sound nearly as convincing.

 

[Bleu Star]

Kicking a career long FG in that situation was taking an unwarranted risk at the wrong time of the game. Field position was at a premium and a missed fg gives San Diego wonderful field position. Punting from the 40... As stated, if our slumping punter can't nail them inside the 20 from 40 yards out, he needs to be bagging groceries somewhere. Going for it is an intriguing decision that I would prefer over a career long ft every time. I still prefer punting and pinning to stay ahead in the chess match but the next decision would have been to go for it. Strategic superiority has never been synonymous with Jason Garrett's mind.

 

[Doomsay]

It makes sense to me.

Obviously, the pregame kicks they use to set their range for the day take into account the kicking angle they'll need to clear the defensive line. But you have to know how far you can make it on a given day at altitude, with a cold ball, with the wind in your face, with the wind at your back, whatever.

And kickers do set career bests sometime. Each time they do it, it's because a coach took a chance based off of how they were kicking them in the pregame.

It makes sense to you and Jason, but probably not too many coaches in the league, which is why you won't find too many kickers attempting far-in-excess of their career long field goals in close games with lots of time left on the clock.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Kicking a career long FG in that situation was taking an unwarranted risk at the wrong time of the game. Field position was at a premium and a missed fg gives san diego wonderful field position. Punting from the 40... As stated, if our slumping punter can't nail them inside the 20 from 40 yard out, he needs to be bagging groceries somewhere. Going for it is an intriguing decision that I would prefer over a career long ft every time. I still prefer punting and pinning to stay ahead in the chess match but the next decision would have been to go for it. Strategic superiority has never been synonymous with Jason Garrett's mind.

Interesting you say that since you're arguing for the worst strategic move of the 3 available.

 

[DallasCowboysRule!]

The consensus is 'punt' because we kicked it and missed. They're second-guessing the coaching decision, so they're going to go as conservative to get as much emotional distance as possible from the call on the field. Saying the fg was a disaster and we should have thrown it on 4th and 6 doesn't sound nearly as convincing.

Not really. I became extremely nervous about the decision as soon as I saw Bailey going out for the field goal. My first thought was punt. The reason being that missing a field goal is a double whammy. Not only do you give the other team great field position but you lose an additional seven yards because of the placement for the kicker. I don't know the official stats but I can't imagine that the odds of making a 56 yard field goal are very good.

 

[Doomsay]

It's everywhere.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1652308-are-nfl-teams-making-a-mistake-by-punting-on-4th-down

http://********.com/5948322/the-two...t-explain-why-nfl-coaches-punt-on-fourth-down

not sure how that works with 6 yards to go and a 33% conversion rate, but maybe

 

[Tabascocat]

The consensus is 'punt' because we kicked it and missed. They're second-guessing the coaching decision, so they're going to go as conservative to get as much emotional distance as possible from the call on the field. Saying the fg was a disaster and we should have thrown it on 4th and 6 doesn't sound nearly as convincing.

How about those of us questioning it in the moment? I didn't like it then and preferred either a punt or to go for it. The FG was the wrong call in that situation.

 

[Bleu Star]

In your book which means zilch to me.

Interesting you say that since you're arguing for the worst strategic move of the 3 available.

 

[Idgit]

It makes sense to you and Jason, but probably not too many coaches in the league, which is why you won't find too many kickers attempting far-in-excess of their career long field goals in close games with lots of time left on the clock.

Won't you? Anecdotally, it seems to me that kick x would be kicker y's career long gets said with some relative frequency in games. Of course, according to my argument, it's also a function of how often a coach sees kicker y making career long fgs at an angle to clear the DL in the pregame warmups.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It makes sense to you and Jason, but probably not too many coaches in the league, which is why you won't find too many kickers attempting far-in-excess of their career long field goals in close games with lots of time left on the clock.

You keep harping on it being his career long? Why?

He had plenty of leg. The coaching staff clearly had confidence in him.

And as Idgit has mentioned numerous times this confidence comes not only in the overall ability of the kicker but from pregame work as well.

 

[Idgit]

Not really. I became extremely nervous about the decision as soon as I saw Bailey going out for the field goal. My first thought was punt. The reason being that missing a field goal is a double whammy. Not only do you give the other team great field position but you lose an additional seven yards because of the placement for the kicker. I don't know the official stats but I can't imagine that the odds of making a 56 yard field goal are very good.

How about those of us questioning it in the moment? I didn't like it then and preferred either a punt or to go for it. The FG was the wrong call in that situation.

Yeah, I probably should have said first-and-second guessing. Remember, too, I also thought it was the wrong call. I just think punting it would have been even worse.

 

[Bleu Star]

Just Ask Madden. He will guide you..lol

You and I shared the same nerves in that situation.

Dumb call.

Not really. I became extremely nervous about the decision as soon as I saw Bailey going out for the field goal. My first thought was punt. The reason being that missing a field goal is a double whammy. Not only do you give the other team great field position but you lose an additional seven yards because of the placement for the kicker. I don't know the official stats but I can't imagine that the odds of making a 56 yard field goal are very good.