Can we discuss that play call? (56 yd FG)

[Doomsay]

The consensus is 'punt' because we kicked it and missed. They're second-guessing the coaching decision, so they're going to go as conservative to get as much emotional distance as possible from the call on the field. Saying the fg was a disaster and we should have thrown it on 4th and 6 doesn't sound nearly as convincing.

That's always your fallback..."2nd guessing." I don't think that there were too many fans who honestly that liked the decision in the first place, regardless of outcome.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

In your book which means zilch to me.

Are you at all aware of the numerous studies that have been performed on this subject all coming to the same conclusion?

 

[Idgit]

That's always your fallback..."2nd guessing." I don't think that there were too many fans who honestly that liked the decision in the first place, regardless of outcome.

I amended that. I meant 'questioning' in general. But you're not paying very close attention if you don't think there's an awful lot of second-guessing going on on this message board after every loss.

 

[Bleu Star]

I'm aware that I didn't like the call in the moment and still don't like it as I lie here hours later. I'm glad you found some stats to support your argument though. Bravooooooo. ;-)

Are you at all aware of the numerous studies that have been performed on this subject all coming to the same conclusion?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I'm aware that I didn't like the call in the moment and still don't like it as I lie here hours later. I'm glad you found some stats to support your argument though. Bravooooooo. ;-)

So you're fine being wrong in spite of the evidence. Good for you.

 

[Bleu Star]

Time to hit the sack but thanks to everyone that responded. It is clear based upon the documented study in this thread that my fellow fans are statistically in agreement with my take on that situation.

Link that.

 

[Deep_South]

So you're fine being wrong in spite of the evidence. Good for you.

You can't really quantify momentum.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You can't really quantify momentum.

Probably because there is no such thing in Football.

Otherwise we win after the Sean Lee TD.

 

[17yearsandcounting]

It was typical LOSER Jason. Ridiculous.

 

[Deep_South]

Probably because there is no such thing in Football.

Otherwise we win after the Sean Lee TD.

Obviously, I disagree. Momentum is palpable - one can feel it as certainly as one feels wet when it rains. (I'm talking about both playing sports and watching in the stands.)

 

[Venger]

Doesn't make sense, he's never kicked anything close to 56 yds in a game - a real coach wouldn't have banked on a lottery outcome unless it was an act of desperation at the end of either half.

Bingo - this is a kick you make either at desperation time or at expiry of the half. Folks, you realize missing a 56 yarder means giving them the ball at midfield, RIGHT?

What does anyone think Bailey is at 56 yards in game conditions - maybe a 20% maker, 25%? Would you risk a 1/4 shot at 3 points if it meant 3/4 shot at giving them the ball at midfield, at that point? What's the point return on drives starting at midfield? I bet it's over 3, and that's why you don't do it. Do that alot and you will find yourself coaching the WNBA.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Obviously, I disagree. Momentum is palpable - one can feel it as certainly as one feels wet when it rains. (I'm talking about both playing sports and watching in the stands.)

Happy reading.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9580775/bill-barnwell-theory-momentum-football

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/71970/nomentum-in-sports-part-2

 

[Doomsay]

So you're fine being wrong in spite of the evidence. Good for you.

I think that you need a little more specific evid

It's everywhere.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1652308-are-nfl-teams-making-a-mistake-by-punting-on-4th-down

http://********.com/5948322/the-two...t-explain-why-nfl-coaches-punt-on-fourth-down

Here is a study that I recall that incorporates average down and distance predicts and actuals. I do think that you have to factor in a given teams' 3rd / 4th down conversion rate - and we are below average.

http://chenlab.ece.cornell.edu/people/Andy/footballDatamining.pdf

 

[Zman5]

JG has no clue concerning situational football. He has shown over and over again he isn't qualified to be a HC or an OC in the NFL.

No way you kick the fg in a close game on the road. Especially the way the defense has been playing. No freakin way.

 

[links18]

No that's actually not what he said at all. The least optimal was punting.

You aren't reading his post correctly. Idgit has clearly said the FG was the worst option, he just wasn't a fan of punting.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You aren't reading his post correctly. Idgit has clearly said the FG was the worst option, he just wasn't a fan of punting.

It would be harder for him to be clearer than this...

It is. I don't know why we risked it. I thought the chance of converting was better. I just happen to like the punting option even less than the fg kicking option.

 

[Doomsay]

You keep harping on it being his career long? Why?

He had plenty of leg. The coaching staff clearly had confidence in him.

And as Idgit has mentioned numerous times this confidence comes not only in the overall ability of the kicker but from pregame work as well.

This pre-game work confidence is a wonderful thing. We ought not doubt it.

 

[links18]

It would be harder for him to be clearer than this...

OK, but its also pretty clear he isn't a fan of the FG either.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

OK, but its also pretty clear he isn't a fan of the FG either.

When you're in no man's land...none of the options on 4th down are exciting.

 

[links18]

When you're in no man's land...none of the options on 4th down are exciting.

Yeah, I think I said that earlier. Of course, maybe we should be discussing the 3rd down play as well.