Can we discuss that play call? (56 yd FG)

[Zman5]

When you're in no man's land...none of the options on 4th down are exciting.

How many time have Bailey made a 55+ yarder? In fact, what is the success rate for kickers to make a 55+ yarders. Oh BTW that would have been Cowboys all time record as far as FG is concerned.

Statistically , the chance of him making that FG was very slim.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

How many time have Bailey made a 55+ yarder? In fact, what is the success rate for kickers to make a 55+ yarders. Oh BTW that would have been Cowboys all time record as far as FG is concerned.

Statistically , the chance of him making that FG was very slim.

Bailey was 2-2 on the season on field goals of 50+ yards.

And if I recall correctly of those 2 neither were squeakers.

And he had plenty of leg today.

You don't second guess a decision based on if it worked or not.

 

[Zman5]

Bailey was 2-2 on the season on field goals of 50+ yards.

And if I recall correctly of those 2 neither were squeakers.

And he had plenty of leg today.

You don't second guess a decision based on if it worked or not.

50+ and 55+ yarders are totally different. Go look up the success rate of 50+ fg vs 55+ yarders.

As far as Bailey's kick having the distance, that point is moot. If distance is the only factor in making FGs, then many kickers would have kicked 60 yarders. Yet not many have.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Bailey was 2-2 on the season on field goals of 50+ yards.

And if I recall correctly of those 2 neither were squeakers.

And he had plenty of leg today.

You don't second guess a decision based on if it worked or not.

I love how you keep saying "50+". A 70 yarder is 50+... Would you be okay with attempting that? I'm guessing not.

And why? Because as common sense would most of us, there's a big difference between a 50 yarder and a 56 yarder. From advancednflstats.com:

Maybe someone can forward this to Red J. I thought maybe he'd have found something like this after letting time burn off the clock so he could settle for unsuccessful 50+ yarders at Arizona and Baltimore the last two years, but apparently he still hasn't got the memo. Maybe next year.

(Edit... Zman was obviously thinking the same thing I was.)

 

[links18]

I love how you keep saying "50+". A 70 yarder is 50+... Would you be okay with attempting that? I'm guessing not.

And why? Because as common sense would most of us, there's a big difference between a 50 yarder and a 56 yarder. From advancednflstats.com:

Maybe someone can forward this to Red J. I thought maybe he'd have found something like this after letting time burn off the clock so he could settle for unsuccessful 50+ yarders at Arizona and Baltimore the last two years, but apparently he still hasn't got the memo. Maybe next year.

(Edit... Zman was obviously thinking the same thing I was.)

End thread.

 

[KB1122]

I take it this was very early in the game, as I didn't see it. Still, I'm OK with 56 yards.

 

[Idgit]

End thread.

It's great data, if we knew more about where it came from. For example, the dates during which it was compiled might be relevant. For illustration, look at this article from early 2011: http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/30016/kickers-dialing-long-distance-this-year. 70.7 success rate during the first 7 weeks of the season from 50+ (sorry, guys, you're not going to find FG data that goes farther than 50+). That's insane, on the surface.

Digging in more, if you look at the success rate data from 2013, it looks to me like there's a lot of the missed kicks that are dragging down the overall 50+ percentages coming from the same guys. Ie, the guys who *can* make it from that distance *do* a lot of the time. Our own Dan Bailey was 2-3 that year, fwiw.

I think it's reasonable to assume that Jason Garrett, or at least Rich Bisaccia has access to at least this level of statistical analysis handy before deciding to try a kick in a game, but maybe we ought to mail them that old chart of data re: other peoples' kickers, too, just to be on the safe side.

 

[JohnnyCulbreth]

Don't know if it's been said yet or not, but Bailey was drilling 60+ (same direction) in pre game. I don't know if this had any say in the play call but he looked confident.

 

[Idgit]

Don't know if it's been said yet or not, but Bailey was drilling 60+ (same direction) in pre game. I don't know if this had any say in the play call but he looked confident.

Thanks for sharing that. I had no doubt he had been, and that the kicks were high enough to be potentially good in the game. There's little chance we'd have risked the FGs otherwise, but it's nice to have it validated from someone watching pregame.

 

[Bleu Star]

Maybe it's just me but I don't care if he was drilling 70 yarders during pregame warm ups. In that particular game situation, you don't line up for an improbable fg make when facing the possibility of giving them excellent field position early in the first half of a chess match on the road. You just don't do it. Break out any studies to try and prove any counter points. It's cute to know that some of us can drum up opinions to support our paper arguments but in "that particular situation", lining up for a 56 yarder is the last of three options. Garrett occasionally blows a brain cell like cars blow gaskets.

Don't know if it's been said yet or not, but Bailey was drilling 60+ (same direction) in pre game. I don't know if this had any say in the play call but he looked confident.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Maybe it's just me but I don't care if he was drilling 70 yarders during pregame warm ups. In that particular game situation, you don't line up for an improbable fg make when facing the possibility of giving them excellent field position early in the first half of a chess match on the road. You just don't do it. Break out any studies to try and prove any counter points. It's cute to know that some of us can drum up opinions to support our paper arguments but in "that particular situation", lining up for a 56 yarder is the last of three options. Garrett occasionally blows a brain cell like cars blow gaskets.

You keep talking about game situations. So are we. In no man's land you kick or you go for it.

Punting is the biggest mistake. Period.

 

[Eric_Boyer]

this is the equivalent of questioning run on 3rd and 5.

yes, the odds say it is a bad call, but it isn't a moronic call either.

I have so many bigger problems with the game. like lack of deep passes, or not throwing it in the end zone when trying to make a comeback.

and I think the running game was there for us

 

[Bleu Star]

In your concrete black & white world punting may be the biggest mistake. Thankfully, I don't live in that world. Say hi to John for me.

I categorically disagree. Oh.. You already know that.

In that particular "situation":

1. Punt and pin deep
2. Go for it
3. Kick a career long FG

You keep talking about game situations. So are we. In no man's land you kick or you go for it.

Punting is the biggest mistake. Period.

 

[ragman]

I don't agree with it at all. IMO, it was a stupid call. You don't give a QB like Rivers half the field like that. You just don't. He's too good.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

In your concrete black & white world punting may be the biggest mistake. Thankfully, I don't live in that world. Say hi to John for me.

I categorically disagree. Oh.. You already know that.

In that particular "situation":

1. Punt and pin deep
2. Go for it
3. Kick a career long FG

As long as you realize you're wrong.

We're at the well. Can't make you drink.

 

[Bleu Star]

As long as you realize you're wrong.

We're at the well. Can't make you drink.

Whatever helps your brain worship itself. It's really silly. You have one point and I categorically oppose it. Get over yourself.

1. Punt and pin deep
2. Go for it
3. Kick a career long FG

Done deal.

 

[Bleu Star]

I'm really trying to be open minded here. One day later.. Cooler head. Hmmm.. Nope. Kicking a career long in that situation is still asinine.

 

[SkinsFan28]

Whatever helps your brain worship itself. It's really silly. You have one point and I categorically oppose it. Get over yourself.

1. Punt and pin deep
2. Go for it
3. Kick a career long FG

Done deal.

To add to this, if you go for it, chances are even if you don't get the first, you are going to move the ball forward some. If you do miss the FG you are giving up 7-8 yds more of field position.

I really like that we see more teams going for it on 4th down in that neverland area, but kicking a long field goal seems like the right choice only if it is necessitated by game score. I don't think it was in your game.

 

[Bleu Star]

To add to this, if you go for it, chances are even if you don't get the first, you are going to move the ball forward some. If you do miss the FG you are giving up 7-8 yds more of field position.

I really like that we see more teams going for it on 4th down in that neverland area, but kicking a long field goal seems like the right choice only if it is necessitated by game score. I don't think it was in your game.

Thanks for the opinion from a neutral perspective.

 

[Doomsay]

As long as you realize you're wrong.

We're at the well. Can't make you drink.

Actually the stats are essentially indifferent between FGA, Punt or conversion attempt at that point of the field with 6 yds to go..

http://chenlab.ece.cornell.edu/people/Andy/footballDatamining.pdf