Can we discuss that play call? (56 yd FG)

[Toruk_Makto]

I don't know what part of going for it is the best option, kicking it is the 2nd best option and punting is the worst don't people get.

This is universally known to be true.

Every single study agrees.

It doesn't matter if it's the 1st or 3rd quarter or you're up big or down big.

Punting is the worst option for expected points and therefore expected win percentage.

It's not something that really can be debated with any credibility from the other side of the argument.

One side has cold agnostic analysis. The other side has "but it was a tie game!"

 

[Bleu Star]

Actually the stats are essentially ambivalent between FGA, Punt or conversion attempt at that point of the field with 6 yds to go..

http://chenlab.ece.cornell.edu/people/Andy/footballDatamining.pdf

I didn't even click his links because the counter argument against that play in that situation is alien to me. Thanks for sharing though.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Actually the stats are essentially indifferent between FGA, Punt or conversion attempt at that point of the field with 6 yds to go..

http://chenlab.ece.cornell.edu/people/Andy/footballDatamining.pdf

Just glancing at that I understand what they're trying to do but it's hard to read some of those graphs.

I did mention most of the standard analysis is based on 4th and 5 and in. So good to see work on a more granular level.

I think we can agree though the argument of "chess match football" is pretty silly.

 

[Bleu Star]

Just glancing at that I understand what they're trying to do but it's hard to read some of those graphs.

I did mention most of the standard analysis is based on 4th and 5 and in. So good to see work on a more granular level.

I think we can agree though the argument of "chess match football" is pretty silly.

Careful there. Don't trip while you're backpedaling. I care about your general welfare as a fellow fan.

 

[TheCoolFan]

The pooch punt is underrated

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Careful there. Don't trip while you're backpedaling. I care about your general welfare as a fellow fan.

Backpedaling? Off of what?

Given the length of the kick and the down and distance it sure wasn't a gimmie.

But those factors are what brought punting closer to a go verses kicking or going for it. Not the other way around.

And that certainly doesn't bode well for your "You always punt in that situation unless end of half or game" situation.

Nothing, that anyone has posted, supports that stance.

 

[CowboyGil]

It was 50/50. They tried and missed. It didn't cost them the game. Can you say nitpicking?

 

[Bleu Star]

Backpedaling? Off of what?

Given the length of the kick and the down and distance it sure wasn't a gimmie.

But those factors are what brought punting closer to a go verses kicking or going for it. Not the other way around.

And that certainly doesn't bode well for your "You always punt in that situation unless end of half or game" situation.

Nothing, that anyone has posted, supports that stance.

You're softening your stance. I can feel it.

 

[Bleu Star]

It was 50/50. They tried and missed. It didn't cost them the game. Can you say nitpicking?

It shifted momentum. Do I need to go into any further detail?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You're softening your stance. I can feel it.

I'm softening my stance?

My stance is you go for it 1st, kick 2nd and punt last.

Your stance was you kick to prevent momentum...another concept that has no basis in reality (i've provided a link for you on this as well).

It's like you refuse to be educated.

 

[Bleu Star]

I'm softening my stance?

My stance is you go for it 1st, kick 2nd and punt last.

Your stance was you kick to prevent momentum...another concept that has no basis in reality (i've provided a link for you on this as well).

It's like you refuse to be educated.

It's ok to admit that stats aren't everything. Seriously.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

They aren't everything. But this is a clear cut situation in which the stats have informed us, emphatically so, that we've been over punting.

Only dogmatic thinking like "momentum matters" fights against a pretty obvious truth.

We over punt out of blame shifting and risk aversion. Pretty much two traits you don't want in anyone...yet alone a head coach of a professional sports team.

 

[Bleu Star]

They aren't everything. But this is a clear cut situation in which the stats have informed us, emphatically so, that we've been over punting.

Only dogmatic thinking like "momentum matters" fights against a pretty obvious truth.

We over punt out of blame shifting and risk aversion. Pretty much two traits you don't want in anyone...yet alone a head coach of a professional sports team.

We kick the career long FG when we need it.
We don't kick it when it is clear that the game is in no one's hands and both coaches are clearly playing field position (well they both were until...)
Risk aversion is great. Risk acceptance is equally great "at the right time in the game". That was not the right time.
Momentum does matter. Woof Woof.
Our head coach needs to use the head portion of his title a little more regularly. He totally flew the coop on that call.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

Just glancing at that I understand what they're trying to do but it's hard to read some of those graphs.

I did mention most of the standard analysis is based on 4th and 5 and in. So good to see work on a more granular level.

I think we can agree though the argument of "chess match football" is pretty silly.

Common sense has to take over at some point. Boy smart guy has none.

 

[Bleu Star]

Common sense has to take over at some point. Boy smart guy has none.

TO says hello.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

They aren't everything. But this is a clear cut situation in which the stats have informed us, emphatically so, that we've been over punting.

Only dogmatic thinking like "momentum matters" fights against a pretty obvious truth.

We over punt out of blame shifting and risk aversion. Pretty much two traits you don't want in anyone...yet alone a head coach of a professional sports team.

Clear cut? Asking your kicker to kick his longest ever? Whats so clear cut about that? TO sucks by the way.

 

[Bleu Star]

Clear cut? Asking your kicker to kick his longest ever? Whats so clear cut about that? TO sucks by the way.

Dave. Save your breath. You can't reason with stat man. It's an exercise in futility.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

I hear ya lunch money victims.

 

[Idgit]

Dave. Save your breath. You can't reason with stat man. It's an exercise in futility.

You can't reason with someone who prefers to use measurable data to support an argument? Surely, you can. Right? You just need the right data.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

You can't reason with someone who prefers to use measurable data to support an argument? Surely, you can. Right? You just need the right data.

Defend JG all you want my friend, that was stupid no matter what side of the JG fence your on. I know you know that.
I haven't been on forms in a long time because every one wants to be positive, he's a negative like it or not.