No, it's not always smoke. They tend to be more honest than most when it comes to FA, roster building. What Jerry and Stephen have said this last week pretty much jive with what they have done previous offseasons. They aren't running a smoke screen here. They are pretty much warning/telling the fans that they will once again do jack squat in FA, that what they have is a SB contending team and their improvement will come from the draft.
If people are sitting there, like yourself and TheMarathonContinues, thinking that they are lying and that this is the year they finally bring in a legit stud or two in FA/trade like a big time DT or WR, woo boy, someone is ignoring history here. But man, I hope you guys are right.