Cool Romo Stat

[DandyDon1722]

These are similar arguments that were conducted about Quincy Carter. Now I am not comparing results - although you and others will latch onto that straw man argument. I am speaking about the justifications of results. Although Carter was simply a woeful quarterback, and Romo is pretty solid. But the machinations are identical in how the arguments were concocted in regard to Quincy.

And even now there are those who suggest if Quincy had a defense....

A shocking myopia if there ever was one.

The fact is the team is still mired in the same morass that it has been for a very long time. All these stats about Romo are cherry-picked, and the exact type of comments I'd expect from the "everyone is a winner, lets give a trophy to the last place team" type of argument.

But then "you get it," as you said. As so many argue.

And what do you get?

That the team has a really nice player that puts up huge stats in the 4th quarter when they are behind?

Yet someone else responded.to my original comment about winning in a way that didn't reflect his bruised feelings because I see this as a team sport.. And if his stats were accurate, the team went 22-27.

4th quarter, team behind, throwing a great number of passes in what amounts to a prevent defense, proves what?

The real question is why can Tom Brady, without a super-star running back and wide receiver, win championships, and Romo cannot?

Now complete the trifecta and tell me it is the defense and we can be done here.

I appreciate Romo for what he is and can accomplish. But I also see a season where he didn't have to be the bell cow in 2014 and a balanced team won. They moved on in the play-offs, and at least showed some grit.

But the real sad thing is, these excuses of stats will be here about this player years and years after he retires, with the same people claiming they get it, and the same stats posted.

And not one thing will change about this team or the results because of these stats.

Winners celebrate championships, losers argue stats.

Honestly - this feels right out of 2012. Now it's such an anomaly it's hard to believe this mentality is still around so for old time's sake I'll bite.

You're right - we could be done right there with the defense and it's importance. The facts have been presented and the numbers don't lie and it always ends with the same line...in the history of the NFL. How can you ignore that - it's irrefutable. Statistically speaking - nobody has ever won a 100-meter race on one leg. That's not an excuse - it's a fact. The defense argument also brings in Flacco, Dilfer, Eli, Rypein, etc blah, blah, blah but you already know that.

How did Troy win throwing 25 passes a game? How about a great running game and great defense. Romo had a great running game and average defense in 2014, went 12-4, had a virtually flawless playoff game, made a play to potentially win it and lost and I'm pretty sure you don't believe we would've hung on and won it even if Dez caught it. But that's on Romo who should've been the MVP that year?

It's so obvious I'm convinced you already know all this but don't care.

As far as talking about how Brady can win without a superstar RB - again you're smarter than that - It's such a terrible stance. I don't think anybody disputes that Brady is a better QB than Romo. I think he's better than Manning. I think Rodgers is better than both. But how he can win without a superstar RB is nothing more than a distraction from the real truth.

Asking these questions is pointless. You could've also thrown in he doesn't have superstar receivers and you would be right and again it wouldn't matter because as it relates to team success the argument is a sleight of hand - look over here while the real problem is over there.

But how can Brady win and Romo can't? Here's a short list--

Stability in the organization
Stability in the coaching staff
Grasp of the salary cap and the resistance to pay big money free agents
Not hanging on to older players while developing a drafting younger ones
A once in a generation (or more) head coach
A system that has been in place for over 15 years
Players who buy in and leave their own egos at the door - Randy Moss - Cory Dillon, etc
A notoriously weak division with the least amount of playoff appearances of teams in any division in the last 20 years not named New England

Could Brady win with Dallas the last 15 years? Maybe. He's a transcendent player. Multiple Super Bowls? No way.
Could Romo have won multiple Super Bowls in New England? Absolutely. Multiple? Probably.

Your position is in the smallest of minorities now and goes against the grain of countless players, coaches and executives who have spent their entire lives in the game. Who in the world believes Romo couldn't win a Super Bowl and who still believes it's his fault we haven't, especially after last year.

It even feels odd to have to post something like this again.

Sadly years from now while most everyone will be saying the same thing - you still won't get it although really - I think you do.

 

[aikemirv]

Wow we're really going to throw super bowl champion quarterbacks under the bus for someone
who can't get past the 1st rd of the playoffs, Just because of 1 stat that doesn't mean
a damn thing to anyone?

Wow, we are really going to give credit of Super Bowl Champion to 1 person on the field. Until you can prove that 1 guy on the field and determines all the outcomes, that Super Bowl Champ thing is a team accomplishment and while people always give that guy all the credit , I will put Dan Fouts, Dan Marino and Tony Romo up against every one of them because the stats and play on the field in crunch time proves they get the job done.

I will never forget the game against Baltimore in the final part of the season where Dallas had to win and Romo puts up 2 straight drives to watch the defense give up 2 straight 80 yard TD runs! Yeah Romo plays D too.! How bout Patrick Crayton who in-explicably stops his route after 2 yards of separation in the Giants game.

 

[Jstopper]

These are similar arguments that were conducted about Quincy Carter. Now I am not comparing results - although you and others will latch onto that straw man argument. I am speaking about the justifications of results. Although Carter was simply a woeful quarterback, and Romo is pretty solid. But the machinations are identical in how the arguments were concocted in regard to Quincy.

And even now there are those who suggest if Quincy had a defense....

A shocking myopia if there ever was one.

The fact is the team is still mired in the same morass that it has been for a very long time. All these stats about Romo are cherry-picked, and the exact type of comments I'd expect from the "everyone is a winner, lets give a trophy to the last place team" type of argument.

But then "you get it," as you said. As so many argue.

And what do you get?

That the team has a really nice player that puts up huge stats in the 4th quarter when they are behind?

Yet someone else responded.to my original comment about winning in a way that didn't reflect his bruised feelings because I see this as a team sport.. And if his stats were accurate, the team went 22-27.

4th quarter, team behind, throwing a great number of passes in what amounts to a prevent defense, proves what?

The real question is why can Tom Brady, without a super-star running back and wide receiver, win championships, and Romo cannot?

Now complete the trifecta and tell me it is the defense and we can be done here.

I appreciate Romo for what he is and can accomplish. But I also see a season where he didn't have to be the bell cow in 2014 and a balanced team won. They moved on in the play-offs, and at least showed some grit.

But the real sad thing is, these excuses of stats will be here about this player years and years after he retires, with the same people claiming they get it, and the same stats posted.

And not one thing will change about this team or the results because of these stats.

Winners celebrate championships, losers argue stats.

How is it that children in middle school can understand that an individuals performance in a group based setting is not indicitve of the entire team and yet there are grown men who apparently cannot separate team success from individual accomplishments? Common sense isn't very common I suppose

 

[percyhoward]

So Tom Brady is a system QB.

This is the kind of discussion I always hope numbers like the ones I posted lead to. What is it that makes someone like Brady, Rivers, or Roethlisberger so much worse on longer passes than shorter passes in this situation, for example?

Sample size? If you look at the entire 2nd half, and include all 15+ yard attempts with no more than an 8-point margin, you certainly get a bigger sample to work with. Now we're just looking at deeper attempts when games are close in the 2nd half. Again, the bold rating is on the longer targets, the rating in parentheses is on the shorter targets.

3rd or 4th qtr or OT, margin + or - 8 points
Romo 117.6 (97.4)
Brady 85.9 (94.4)
Roethlsbrgr 83.5 (93.6)
Rivers 79.3 (92.2)

There's still basically a 10-point drop off in rating on the longer targets for Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. Romo's rating goes up 20 points. Brees' goes up 12, Rodgers' goes up 4, and Peyton's goes down 15 when you include the entire 2nd half and leads. So there's a clutch factor with PManning (the later in the game, and the bigger the need for a score, the better he delivered) that outweighs the distance factor.

And that clutch factor works in reverse for Brady, Roehlisberger, and Rivers.

This is tied or trailing by less than one score again (like the OP), targets of 15+ yards, but the rating in bold is for the first 3 quarters only. In parentheses is the 4th qtr/OT rating on these long targets that I already posted. Same players from the list in the OP.

Brees 110.4 (94.2)
Rodgers 104.6 (98.4)
Rivers 103.7 (42.2)
Romo 99.9 (116.2)
PManning 96.5 (102.1)
EManning 88.3 (87.2)
Flacco 88.0 (68.0)
Stafford 87.9 (58.9)
Cutler 87.1 (65.7)
Ryan 85.9 (64.4)
Brady 78.0 (58.2)
Palmer 76.7 (75.2)
Roethlsbrgr 76.4 (73.4)

The idea is to remove the "late" aspect of clutch, and look at target distance when games are close but haven't arrived at the 4th quarter yet. With the advantage of a much larger sample size.

Rivers falls off a cliff, with a waterfall that plummets 60 points in the 4th qtr. Roethlisberger just isn't very good at targets of 15+ yards, period. And Brady isn't very good at it when the game is close, and even then, still finds a way to drop off 20 points in the 4th. Only Peyton (see above) and Romo improve in the 4th qtr.

So here's the top 10 among these passers in these two basic categories:

ALL deeper (15 yd +) targets, any time, any score
Romo 111.5
Brees 106.8
Rodgers 106.6
Rivers 96.5
PManning 93.6
Brady 90.8
Roethlsbrgr 84.2
EManning 80.0
Palmer 80.0
Stafford 79.3

ALL 4th qtr/OT targets, tied or trailing by one score or less, any distance
Romo 94.0
Rodgers 91.3
Brees 90.4
EManning 88.0
Roethlsbrgr 87.5
Cutler 86.2
Brady 84.4
Palmer 83.7
PManning 82.5
Stafford 79.7

Romo's bane in his career has been the 1st quarter of games. On his 1st-quarter targets of 15+ yards, he has a rating of 71.9, but this goes up as the game goes on. By the 2nd quarter, it's already 105.1. His career rating on all attempts over the last 3 quarters and OT is 100.7 His career 1st-quarter rating on all attempts is just 83.4.

What advantage do other QB have over Romo going into a game, and how is he able to start erasing almost all of it once the game is in the 2nd quarter?

Imagine if Tony had coaches that didn't rely on him to bail out a crappy game plan each week.

edit: Is this the answer to the first part of my question?

 

[percyhoward]

Should say 49 of 98 1514 yards. Dez caught it. Lol.

I think about it every time I post a stat like this one.

btw, all my posts in this thread include playoffs.

 

[CCBoy]

A simple solution to the mystery, could be that the more the challenge, the better the production from Tony Romo. In other words, the challenge of overcoming is greater than grabbing a lead and holding onto it.

Wins facing to a lead and to a close game could be the next indicator to search...when cross applied to the same group of quarterbacks.

 

[DFWJC]

Meaningless... Whether his fault for throwing last minute INT's, or the teams fault for not stopping the opposing offense in a close game, it hasn't lead to anything to be proud of.

 

[percyhoward]

The Cowboys had 49 different games with at least 1 play in the situation and had a record of 22-27 in those games.

Last year teams with a point margin of 0 to -8 points at the end of the 3rd quarter went 57-93 for a .380 win%.

And the Cowboys' defenses over the years haven't been any better than most of those teams' last year. Great work there.

 

[dogunwo]

This is the kind of discussion I always hope numbers like the ones I posted lead to. What is it that makes someone like Brady, Rivers, or Roethlisberger so much worse on longer passes than shorter passes in this situation, for example?

Sample size? If you look at the entire 2nd half, and include all 15+ yard attempts with no more than an 8-point margin, you certainly get a bigger sample to work with. Now we're just looking at deeper attempts when games are close in the 2nd half. Again, the bold rating is on the longer targets, the rating in parentheses is on the shorter targets.



3rd or 4th qtr or OT, margin + or - 8 points
Romo 117.6 (97.4)
Brady 85.9 (94.4)
Roethlsbrgr 83.5 (93.6)
Rivers 79.3 (92.2)

There's still basically a 10-point drop off in rating on the longer targets for Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. Romo's rating goes up 20 points. Brees' goes up 12, Rodgers' goes up 4, and Peyton's goes down 15 when you include the entire 2nd half and leads. So there's a clutch factor with PManning (the later in the game, and the bigger the need for a score, the better he delivered) that outweighs the distance factor.

And that clutch factor works in reverse for Brady, Roehlisberger, and Rivers.

This is tied or trailing by less than one score again (like the OP), targets of 15+ yards, but the rating in bold is for the first 3 quarters only. In parentheses is the 4th qtr/OT rating on these long targets that I already posted. Same players from the list in the OP.

Brees 110.4 (94.2)
Rodgers 104.6 (98.4)
Rivers 103.7 (42.2)
Romo 99.9 (116.2)
PManning 96.5 (102.1)
EManning 88.3 (87.2)
Flacco 88.0 (68.0)
Stafford 87.9 (58.9)
Cutler 87.1 (65.7)
Ryan 85.9 (64.4)
Brady 78.0 (58.2)
Palmer 76.7 (75.2)
Roethlsbrgr 76.4 (73.4)

The idea is to remove the "late" aspect of clutch, and look at target distance when games are close but haven't arrived at the 4th quarter yet. With the advantage of a much larger sample size.

Rivers falls off a cliff, with a waterfall that plummets 60 points in the 4th qtr. Roethlisberger just isn't very good at targets of 15+ yards, period. And Brady isn't very good at it when the game is close, and even then, still finds a way to drop off 20 points in the 4th. Only Peyton (see above) and Romo improve in the 4th qtr.

So here's the top 10 among these passers in these two basic categories:

ALL deeper (15 yd +) targets, any time, any score
Romo 111.5
Brees 106.8
Rodgers 106.6
Rivers 96.5
PManning 93.6
Brady 90.8
Roethlsbrgr 84.2
EManning 80.0
Palmer 80.0
Stafford 79.3

ALL 4th qtr/OT targets, tied or trailing by one score or less, any distance
Romo 94.0
Rodgers 91.3
Brees 90.4
EManning 88.0
Roethlsbrgr 87.5
Cutler 86.2
Brady 84.4
Palmer 83.7
PManning 82.5
Stafford 79.7

Romo's bane in his career has been the 1st quarter of games. On his 1st-quarter targets of 15+ yards, he has a rating of 71.9, but this goes up as the game goes on. By the 2nd quarter, it's already 105.1. His career rating on all attempts over the last 3 quarters and OT is 100.7 His career 1st-quarter rating on all attempts is just 83.4.

What advantage do other QB have over Romo going into a game, and how is he able to start erasing almost all of it once the game is in the 2nd quarter?



edit: Is this the answer to the first part of my question?

Excellent work. It may have something to do with Romo trying to follow a "script" in the first quarter of games, and not doing what he does best which is reading the defense and checking in and out of plays at the line. Romo really is the best offensive playcaller on the team, he even has evolved to checking into running plays.

 

[Mountaineerfan]

On the second Tuesday of every third month at 5:47. When wearing a blue polo and khaki pants with blue socks he's also the greatest pac man player of all time.

 

[CCBoy]

And the Cowboys' defenses over the years haven't been any better than most of those teams' last year. Great work there.

I did a thread that I hope helps to point towards the defensive statistical indicators...

 

[percyhoward]

I wonder if you pulled those stats on the other three quarters what you'd find? Maybe Romo's part of the reason we're behind in the first place.

Romo has a career passer rating of 95.2 over the first three quarters, so there is a reason the team hasn't played up to the standard set by the passing game with Romo, but that's not it.

The positive I take from this is that you are thinking.

 

[DFWJC]

Wow we're really going to throw super bowl champion quarterbacks under the bus for someone
who can't get past the 1st rd of the playoffs, Just because of 1 stat that doesn't mean
a damn thing to anyone?

There the guy goes again---crapping in his pants because someone dares to write anything positive about a Cowboy player or the team.

 

[CCBoy]

There the guy goes again---crapping in his pants because someone dares to write anything positive about a Cowboy player or the team.

What is expected from a burn barrel convention?

 

[percyhoward]

A simple solution to the mystery, could be that the more the challenge, the better the production from Tony Romo. In other words, the challenge of overcoming is greater than grabbing a lead and holding onto it.

Wins facing to a lead and to a close game could be the next indicator to search...when cross applied to the same group of quarterbacks.

4th qtr/OT, leading by one score or less
(all attempts)
Romo 121.8
Rodgers 112.9
Palmer 101.5
Flacco 99.8
Rivers 96.8
PManning 94.8
EManning 94.6
Roethlsbrgr 89.2
Ryan 87.9
Brady 87.8
Brees 87.6

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&super_bowl=0&match=summary_all&year_min=1994&year_max=2015&game_type=E&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter=4&quarter=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=00&down=0&down=1&down=2&down=3&down=4&yg_gtlt=gt&is_first_down=-1&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type=PASS&is_complete=-1&is_turnover=-1&turnover_type=interception&turnover_type=fumble&is_scoring=-1&score_type=touchdown&score_type=field_goal&score_type=safety&is_sack=-1&include_kneels=-1&no_play=0&margin_min=1&margin_max=8&order_by=yards&more_options=0&rush_direction=LE&rush_direction=LT&rush_direction=LG&rush_direction=M&rush_direction=RG&rush_direction=RT&rush_direction=RE&pass_location=SL&pass_location=SM&pass_location=SR&pass_location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

 

[CCBoy]

4th qtr/OT, leading by one score or less
(all attempts)
Romo 121.8
Rodgers 112.9
Palmer 101.5
Flacco 99.8
Rivers 96.8
PManning 94.8
EManning 94.6
Roethlsbrgr 89.2
Ryan 87.9
Brady 87.8
Brees 87.6

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&super_bowl=0&match=summary_all&year_min=1994&year_max=2015&game_type=E&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter=4&quarter=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=00&down=0&down=1&down=2&down=3&down=4&yg_gtlt=gt&is_first_down=-1&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type=PASS&is_complete=-1&is_turnover=-1&turnover_type=interception&turnover_type=fumble&is_scoring=-1&score_type=touchdown&score_type=field_goal&score_type=safety&is_sack=-1&include_kneels=-1&no_play=0&margin_min=1&margin_max=8&order_by=yards&more_options=0&rush_direction=LE&rush_direction=LT&rush_direction=LG&rush_direction=M&rush_direction=RG&rush_direction=RT&rush_direction=RE&pass_location=SL&pass_location=SM&pass_location=SR&pass_location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Sir, yes sir...and even clearer on who actually carries the team when in need...

 

[mrmojo]

Man, based on all these stats how can he not be a first ballot HOFer???

 

[percyhoward]

Man, based on all these stats how can he not be a first ballot HOFer???

Because he plays a team sport.

 

[CCBoy]

Man, based on all these stats how can he not be a first ballot HOFer???

You on the voting panel?

 

[Idgit]

Man, based on all these stats how can he not be a first ballot HOFer???

The Hall typically looks at more than 4th quarter downfield passing with 8 points or less.
That doesn't make the cool stat in this thread any less interesting, though.