Again, its called playing the percentages..............what are the odds that Goff/Wentz/Lynch will be gone at pick 4?
Tennessee.........they have Marcus Marriotta, so highly unlikely they will draft a QB.
Cleveland.........they need a QB, so very high possibility they will draft one.
San Diego.........they just gave Rivers a new contract extension through 2019, highly unlikely they will draft his replacement.
What about a trade up? We know from past trades that the Skins had to give up a fortune to move up and take a QB and we also know that the Eagles offered 3 first round picks last season for Marriotta and the Titans gave Chippy the middle finger. So the odds of a team giving up multiple first round picks to move up and grab a QB is not very high, maybe one at the most and that is probably San Francisco at pick 7
So, based on the likelihood of a QB being taken, the percentages say at most 2 will be gone......one by Cleveland and the other possibly by trade with San Francisco. So it appears that at least one of the big 3 (Wentz, Goff, Lynch) will be available when we pick.
I'm not sure what the odds are of the top QBs being gone before pick four. But the odds are there. In that case, you have to cover yourself.
So, I ask this. Let's say that we "play the percentages" and simply wait until the draft having only Romo on our roster at QB. We fully expect Wentz, Goff, and Lynch to be there...or at least one of them...because, you know, percentages.
Then, let's say that amazingly our nightmare scenario occurs, and all are taken.
What then?
All we would have is Romo. Do we reach and take another QB at four? I know you might say, "take one later, or trade down". Now, we are basically forcing our hand. We have to take one. Which means we overpay or overdraft.
Again, no harm is done if we sign a FA QB. We cover our backside in case the impossible happens. You have to plan for this. You can kill yourself ,"playing percentages ". Griffin is no worse than any other backup option.