CFZ Could TE resolve Dak’s problems

[DuncanIso]

Dak struggles vs cover 2 robber and 2 man press.

Many INTs.

 

[Bullflop]

Teams with good defenses often find ways to make life tough for teams until those teams find ways to reverse that trend. Let's see if we can succeed in that task. If Schoonmaker is the answer, 2023 should reflect an upsurge in our offense productivity. If not, it's back to the drawing board.

 

[jnday]

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3​

2017 - 69.9….#4​

2018 - 55.2….#17​

2019 - 71.9….#4​

2021 - 60.5….#11​

2022 - 57.9….#12​

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%​

2017 - 20%​

2018 - 14%​

2019 - 22%​

2021 - 14%​

2022 - 12%​

​

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

1. Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
2. Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
3. The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

Have you ever considered that the TEs on the roster would be much better with a different QB?

 

[Kingofholland]

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3​

2017 - 69.9….#4​

2018 - 55.2….#17​

2019 - 71.9….#4​

2021 - 60.5….#11​

2022 - 57.9….#12​

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%​

2017 - 20%​

2018 - 14%​

2019 - 22%​

2021 - 14%​

2022 - 12%​

​

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

1. Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
2. Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
3. The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

Nice break down and good discussion points. It definitely speaks to the importance of talent and Dak certainly had that around him. Besides TE we also have to consider that was probably the prime of the offensive line early in his career and we know protection is important. Dak also played a more conservative brand of football early on which may explain the higher percentage of TE targets. I don't think ESPN has ever shared their exact QBR formula, but 2017 makes me a little skeptical of their formula, because hands down I always thought that was Dak's worst season of his career.

 

[streetcredit]

can a TE fix what's between his ears?

Possibly, we just need to draft a TE that's also a brain surgeon

 

[tyke1doe]

I don’t know what that means but it’s quite eloquent. Is that Shakespeare?

 

[jrumann59]

While Dak certainly needs to do his part. ..we have to have certain player personnel ..and even coaches - to do their own part too.

We cannot have receivers running bad routes, blowing assignments, not contesting the ball, and having passes bouncing off their hands and chests, and right into DBs hands for INTs.
I've seen it come from the TEs to the WRs,.. sorry but Gallup is the worst of 'em.

He's definitely not the only one, but i cannot explain how many times he's cut off and short-stopped routes to where the CB is far more in position for an INT, than Gallup for the reception.
Gallup does it way too often.

We needed pass catchers that can separate vs coverage, as well as be reliable route runners and sure handed.
Give Dak that extra edge to have the best chance to succeed.

Acquiring Brandin Cooks, who has been one of the premiere speed WRs in the NFL, is one of those extra edges that will help mightily.
We do need Gallup to regain his playing speed again from ACL recovery.
We will need other supporting cast to help (Tolbert, Schoon, Ferguson, Hendershot) we will need new emerging cast in case of injury emergency.

Wait but some here thought Gallup to be at the very least a #2 WR pre-injury..... Gallup is limited WR much like TWill, he is better route runner than TWill but he can very streaky catching stuff, as in making easy catches look difficult but making difficult catches look easy.

 

[plasticman]

Given Witten's skill level, it's most likely that he was targeted more often as part of the gameplan. He was the primary target, to put it simply. I'm not saying all the time, but in most cases.

This is in contrast to the way Novacek was used when Aikman was the QB. In that scenario, both Novacek and Daryl Johnston were insurance policies. Aikman threw to them when he didn't like the coverage on his primary targers. Again, I'm not saying all the time.

Novacek got Aikman out of a lot of jams. Witten did the same for Romo but not so much with Dak who chose to run in his earlier years.

 

[quickccc]

Wait but some here thought Gallup to be at the very least a #2 WR pre-injury..... Gallup is limited WR much like TWill, he is better route runner than TWill but he can very streaky catching stuff, as in making easy catches look difficult but making difficult catches look easy.

Wait , Twill is the measuring stick for ideal capable No.2 starting WR ? .. LOL

Cowboys likely gave Gallup that second contract based off what flashing promises he was showing in '22, before the unfortunate ACL injury vs Niners playoff game.
He still had the poor routes occasional ball drop issues, but when its doubled with a very slow ACL recovery, that adds to the flaws, that did not endure confidence
not to prioritize pursuing a difference maker at WR.

Brandin Cooks becomes that new difference maker at WR.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dak struggles vs cover 2 robber and 2 man press.

Many INTs.

at least somebody is trying to talk football as opposed to the usual, he can't hit the side of a barn, which leads to interceptions.

can you expand on your comment. I am interested

 

[jrumann59]

Wait , Twill is the measuring stick for ideal capable No.2 starting WR ? .. LOL

Cowboys likely gave Gallup that second contract based off what flashing promises he was showing in '22, before the unfortunate ACL injury vs Niners playoff game.
He still had the poor routes occasional ball drop issues, but when its doubled with a very slow ACL recovery, that adds to the flaws, that did not endure confidence
not to prioritize pursuing a difference maker at WR.

Brandin Cooks becomes that new difference maker at WR.

I am stating that TWill is measuring stick. I consider Gallup a slightly better WR than TWill, personally I see him as a very good 3rd WR that can only play outside. Technique wise he is a better route runner and better overall catcher than TWill but if I was looking to upgrade a player's position he would always be at the fore front. I think he is an OK starter but should be one of those guys you look to draft his replacement 2-3 years before his contract is up.

 

[quickccc]

I am stating that TWill is measuring stick. I consider Gallup a slightly better WR than TWill, personally I see him as a very good 3rd WR that can only play outside. Technique wise he is a better route runner and better overall catcher than TWill but if I was looking to upgrade a player's position he would always be at the fore front. I think he is an OK starter but should be one of those guys you look to draft his replacement 2-3 years before his contract is up.

OK then TWill is 'your " measuring stick,.. I've been long done with that comparison, as I think Gallup for all his flaws, is still much better than TWill.

- TWill was not as vertical deep threat than pre-ACL Gallup was,.. nor as physical contested as Gallup is, out- battling body to body with defending CBs, nor the runner after catch as Gallup is
And i haven't seen TWill jump ball in near goal line as Gallup does.

- If Gallup were to be released today per cap casualty, i am certain another NFL team would pick him up immediately, ..
Once TWill was cut here, no other NFL team was interested in him at all. His NFL career was Kaput over.

 

[jrumann59]

OK then TWill is 'your " measuring stick,.. I've been long done with that comparison, as I think Gallup for all his flaws, is still much better than TWill.

- TWill was not as vertical deep threat than pre-ACL Gallup was,.. nor as physical contested as Gallup is, out- battling body to body with defending CBs, nor the runner after catch as Gallup is
And i haven't seen TWill jump ball in near goal line as Gallup does.

- If Gallup were to be released today per cap casualty, i am certain another NFL team would pick him up immediately, ..
Once TWill was cut here, no other NFL team was interested in him at all. His NFL career was Kaput over.

Sorry left a word out "not" should have been in the 1st sentence. I only compare TWill and Gallup together because they were both used in essence as #2 WR here. In overall evaluation I don't think either are #2 both have significant holes in their game, Gallup's holes are not quite as glaring but they are there none the less.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

I am stating that TWill is measuring stick. I consider Gallup a slightly better WR than TWill, personally I see him as a very good 3rd WR that can only play outside. Technique wise he is a better route runner and better overall catcher than TWill but if I was looking to upgrade a player's position he would always be at the fore front. I think he is an OK starter but should be one of those guys you look to draft his replacement 2-3 years before his contract is up.

seriously!? terranec williams is a measuring stick. at best, at best at best, he was a 3rd WR. never really good enough to be a 2nd. couldn't run but a few routes. was a body catcher all his career. Gallup in less time has already surpassed him and at least has a 1000 yard season to his credit. closest Williams came was 840 yard season. williams on the current team might be the 4th WR at best. not sure why you are setting the bar so low with somone like TWill. Gallup is world's better.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Dak struggles vs cover 2 robber and 2 man press.

Many INTs.

The QB struggling in 2 man press is almost by definiton on the WR's and if they can release or not.. I do think you are half correct though as it went this last year. He struggled against any defense who could stop the run without using cover resources to help it, and if the defense could sit on Lamb it got worse for him as he made un characteristic bad throws as the pressure mounted. We will see if Dak has truly gone color blind or if a change in scheme helps. I'm betting his TD/int ratio goes back to the norm though and MM doesnt score 50 on bad teams but does score 21 on playoff defenses and our defense wins us some games.

 

[jrumann59]

seriously!? terranec williams is a measuring stick. at best, at best at best, he was a 3rd WR. never really good enough to be a 2nd. couldn't run but a few routes. was a body catcher all his career. Gallup in less time has already surpassed him and at least has a 1000 yard season to his credit. closest Williams came was 840 yard season. williams on the current team might be the 4th WR at best. not sure why you are setting the bar so low with somone like TWill. Gallup is world's better.

IMHO both are #3 receivers with their own issues. Gallup is prime example of a player you let walk after his rookie contract. The only reason he didn't the team screwed up the Amari Cooper situation and was worried and also thought they could maybe get a deal.

 

[GMO415]

WCO is primarily running the ball and throwing short routes as if we're to gain the same yardage on a decent run.

Primarily throwing to RBs and TEs. Just think of Brady's SB years with Gronk.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

WCO is primarily running the ball and throwing short routes as if we're to gain the same yardage on a decent run.

Primarily throwing to RBs and TEs. Just think of Brady's SB years with Gronk.

The 49ers with Montana used to run this to perfection and more lethal with Rice and Taylor......turning short routes into long back breakers. Rathman, Craig and of course Clark......all killed Dallas. But yeah, kinda like that.

 

[JoeKing]

So we are admitting Dak has problems? Rather than spraying perfume to avoid the stink, why not just flush the turd? Wouldn't that be the more effective course of action to resolve Dak's problems? Opportunities to acquire better QBs are out there. We've had years to get this done rather than polishing the turd we have.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

IMHO both are #3 receivers with their own issues. Gallup is prime example of a player you let walk after his rookie contract. The only reason he didn't the team screwed up the Amari Cooper situation and was worried and also thought they could maybe get a deal.

williams is more like a very low end #3, closer to #4. Gallup is much closer to being a #2 and actually played in that role and was successful