Cowboys 2nd and 3rd round picks over the last 10 years

[CowboyoWales]

To be fair we arent looking to hit a single in the 2nd/3rd Rd's, we normally look at the reclamation project....if you havent got a character flaw we'll pass.

Didnt someone say that these are the rounds we seem to draft the 'difficult' character with flaws (with a view to including them).....when in reality we need the linesman that plays nasty, is hated by the rest of the team and who was only released from solitary confinement (where he spent every day headbutting and trying to knock down walls) the on match days.

To us a bad boy is a rapping gang member or someone who smokes a bit of weed......we want someone who even the Salvation Army would give up on.

 

[sunalsorises]

yeah that was the dumbest of them all lol.
They thought he was going to be like what parsons is now.

Bottom line is a team has to know what they want and need, and be aggressive to make sure you get them.
KC didnt wait for mahomes to fall, they moved up and got him, as they KNEW they wanted him.

I don’t even mind that they took a chance on him. That second contract was awful and he was just bad with no self awareness at all.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Statistical data, sure. Some dude just regurgitating fractions and percentages with zero research to back it up, not so much.

Here look I'll do it. You're wrong, it's actually 28% of 2nd rounders getting a 2nd contract and 2/5ths of 2nd and 3rd rounders getting 2nd contracts with other teams.

That was fun.

You made the claim that the Cowboys success on day 2 the last 10 years compares favorably to the rest of the league. Now prove it.

Bet you won't.

You're right I wont be proving anything because draft hit rates are so subjective no matter what I throw out there wont matter. I gave a range of data on a specific metric (resignings) as the exact data will vary depending on the time period we use. Plenty of people have done the deep dives on draft success/fail rates through different measurables (The first 3 links from a google search on the subject are below), so I wont sit here and write a thesis on the subject as it's widely available to anyone who cares for reasons other than picking apart another posters reasoning. By all measurable data I've seen I don't see the Cowboys being behind the league median when drafting, rounds 2 & 3 included. Continue to expect perfection out of these picks and you'll continue to be disappointed. Teams are typically happy to get two contributors from a standard 7 pick draft.

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

 

[thunderpimp91]

Best-case scenario is we end up with a DeMarco Murray-level running back. Worst-case scenario is we end up with a Chaz Green-level offensive lineman.

Agreed. If you can just avoid the Chaz Green's (and hopefully we dont add Jalen Tolbert to that list) you're probably doing OK. You don't have to hit on all pros at that point in the draft. A RB you can run into the legs off of for four years, a slot CB, a rotational DLine player, or even a project that really only contributes in years 3&4 isn't bad value at all in round 3.

 

[kskboys]

For as much flack as the front office gets for its second round…they aren’t nearly as bad as I thought. A few starters and a all pro.

Huh? Before Diggs, we were awful. Our early playoff exits are partially due to continuously wiffing in the 2nd.

Might finally be getting better, especially if Sammy turns out.

 

[kskboys]

Just saying they're starters doesn't mean much. They have to be good. Lots of teams have really krappy starters....which shouldn't be used as proof that they're good drafters.

And a lot of teams draft someone high and leave them there way longer than they should. Doesn't make it a successful draft pick.

 

[gtb1943]

Overall we have drafted good enough; yeah it could be better but every team can say that.

Too many risks on players that were more projects than players is my main complaint.

The whole Taco thing was a case of one coach having too much influence on the process. Which is a systemic flaw I hope is no longer happening.

IT is in FA, overpaying our own guys because 'we like our guys', and of course bad coaches that has kept us where we are: outside looking in at being a SB contender.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Overall we have drafted good enough; yeah it could be better but every team can say that.

Too many risks on players that were more projects than players is my main complaint.

The whole Taco thing was a case of one coach having too much influence on the process. Which is a systemic flaw I hope is no longer happening.

IT is in FA, overpaying our own guys because 'we like our guys', and of course bad coaches that has kept us where we are: outside looking in at being a SB contender.

Agreed, and I would add coaching that for the longest time strictly played players in one role that fit the coaches vision/scheme. A staff that made a point to adjust their scheme to play to the strengths of the players was probably the most frustrating part of the Garrett years. I think we are seeing this now with DQ, and hopefully with McCarthy taking over the offense we see a little more adaptability on that side of the ball too.

No reason Taco should have been the pick over Watt. No reason guys like Awuzie and Williams should leave the Cowboys as disappointments and be top players at their positions the following year. Some of the draft failures over the years I would put equally if not more on coaching failures.

 

[CowboyRoy]

On average you’ll get about 3 players per year who get selected in the 3rd round who ever make a pro bowl.

Reality is for the most part if you’re getting Gallup’s or even the OSA, McGovern or Jordan Lewis type players consistently in the 3rd round you’re doing a pretty good job. We over glamorize the middle rounds of the draft but it becomes a total crap shoot.

What are you so impressed about? Average isnt anything special. No studs. Its not impressive.

Getting Pollard in the 4th and Shultz in the 4th is impressive, Dak. Nothing impressive about what they have done in the 3rd or 2nd.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Not saying there are no pro bowlers on other teams. I’m saying that drafting solid/average guys with no studs and no duds is not bad. It’s not exceptional either but I’m not looking at that list of guys and feeling like we’ve been terrible.

Could be better but could be a lot worse. It’s far down on the list of my concerns. If we keep drafting Diggs and S. Williams in round 2 and All-Pros in round 1 then what we’ve been doing in round 3 works fine.

Ok, well thats your opinion. To me they suck in the 3rd round and they suck in the 2nd. Great in the first and great in the 4th.

 

[JBS]

Using trade capital on a freakin' RB.

This forum never learns. Bunch of people wanting to replicate the 90s with Smith in a very different league.

Yep. That’s the move.

 

[JBS]

Dane says if he ran the eagles he would absolutely take Bijan at 10

You guys are smarter when it comes to the draft than Dane

Sure….

But 20 is too rich for Bijan Hahahah. You guys have zero ability to critically think. You guys are robots

Omg! A running back.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Huh? Before Diggs, we were awful. Our early playoff exits are partially due to continuously wiffing in the 2nd.

Might finally be getting better, especially if Sammy turns out.

I’m just saying between Gregory, Chido, Conner, Diggs, Lawrence….like the potential of Sam Williams….it doesn’t look as bad as advertised. And for all the flack Jaylon got he was a Pro Bowler. Short lived. How good they should be? Should they be hitting more times than not?

 

[morasp]

Second round would preferably be a good starter w/i 2 years and at a minimum eventual plus starter.

The obvious issue other than reaching for Kelvin Joseph is using a second on risky picks like Jaylon and Randy. They handles way better last year when they took Damone Clark on day 3.

Third round would preferably be eventual plus starter and at a minimum eventual average starter.

Chaz Green was a huge reach
Collins was a reach
Lewis was a good pick and he's still on the team
Gallup was a good pick
McGovern was a good pick
Gallimore has been up and down but he's seen field quite a bit.

 

[Risen Star]

You're right I wont be proving anything because draft hit rates are so subjective no matter what I throw out there wont matter. I gave a range of data on a specific metric (resignings) as the exact data will vary depending on the time period we use. Plenty of people have done the deep dives on draft success/fail rates through different measurables (The first 3 links from a google search on the subject are below), so I wont sit here and write a thesis on the subject as it's widely available to anyone who cares for reasons other than picking apart another posters reasoning. By all measurable data I've seen I don't see the Cowboys being behind the league median when drafting, rounds 2 & 3 included. Continue to expect perfection out of these picks and you'll continue to be disappointed. Teams are typically happy to get two contributors from a standard 7 pick draft.

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

He thinks he's going to teach me the draft.

So, in conclusion, you made a claim you have no way of knowing and the percentages and fractions were made up.

 

[thunderpimp91]

What are you so impressed about? Average isnt anything special. No studs. Its not impressive.

Getting Pollard in the 4th and Shultz in the 4th is impressive, Dak. Nothing impressive about what they have done in the 3rd or 2nd.

If it's a hard line stance that a 2nd or 3rd round pick has to be a stud or they get labeled a bust then we just need to agree to disagree, and that's fine. By that standard you may get one draft class per decade you're happy with. As mentioned only about 10% of 3rd round picks will make a pro bowl in their career, and most wont stick with a team past their rookie deal.

It's a few years old now, but Forbes has an interesting article on draft success by round, and actual showed that in the specific year they were getting data from UDFAs made up a higher percentage of starters in the league than 3rd round picks did. No idea how consistently that actually happens, but it certainly popped out at me.

The 4th round success the Cowboys have had is amazing. The 2nd/3rd round picks are nothing to turn your nose up at though. The rate of success through the draft just isn't very good overall, but I think as fans we get it in our minds that Player X should be an all pro since they were picked in the 2nd round. It's my biggest concern with how the Cowboys build their team. I'm just not sure how long they can hit at the rate they have been. You wont find starting caliber QBs there year in and year out.

 

[CowboyRoy]

If it's a hard line stance that a 2nd or 3rd round pick has to be a stud or they get labeled a bust then we just need to agree to disagree, and that's fine. By that standard you may get one draft class per decade you're happy with. As mentioned only about 10% of 3rd round picks will make a pro bowl in their career, and most wont stick with a team past their rookie deal.

It's a few years old now, but Forbes has an interesting article on draft success by round, and actual showed that in the specific year they were getting data from UDFAs made up a higher percentage of starters in the league than 3rd round picks did. No idea how consistently that actually happens, but it certainly popped out at me.

The 4th round success the Cowboys have had is amazing. The 2nd/3rd round picks are nothing to turn your nose up at though. The rate of success through the draft just isn't very good overall, but I think as fans we get it in our minds that Player X should be an all pro since they were picked in the 2nd round. It's my biggest concern with how the Cowboys build their team. I'm just not sure how long they can hit at the rate they have been. You wont find starting caliber QBs there year in and year out.

Who said that? I certainly didnt.

There wasnt 1 stud in any year. Thats the issue for me.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I’m just saying between Gregory, Chido, Conner, Diggs, Lawrence….like the potential of Sam Williams….it doesn’t look as bad as advertised. And for all the flack Jaylon got he was a Pro Bowler. Short lived. How good they should be? Should they be hitting more times than not?

Gregory was a bust. Conner was never a good guard. Chido? Who is that? Jaylon had one overblown year and that was it. Hill didnt even play. Bubba fat cant even get on the field. The 2nd round has been a disaster overall. A few rare exeptions. Diggs, Lawrence, Lee.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Gregory was a bust. Conner was never a good guard. Chido? Who is that? Jaylon had one overblown year and that was it. Hill didnt even play. Bubba fat cant even get on the field. The 2nd round has been a disaster overall. A few rare exeptions. Diggs, Lawrence, Lee.

You don’t know who Chido is? Hard to take your opinion serious on this matter. Gregory got 70 million frrom the Broncos…Cowboys got a good pick for him.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Who said that? I certainly didnt.

There wasnt 1 stud in any year. Thats the issue for me.

At the very least Diggs isn't considered a stud? What are we calling a stud then?