Cowboys Making Late Run At Signing Dak Prescott To Extension

[HungryLion]

Dak Prescott last year was
14th rating
18th ypa
18th qpr
19th ANY/A

The previous year he was
18th rating
19th ypa
4th QBR
19th ANY/A

He was top 5 in all of these categories his rookie season. It's very much in question whether he will even replicate those numbers let alone reproduce them consistently.

If he continues to put up numbers like this not only will we not compete for a championship but we will likely miss the playoffs for the vast majority of the contract, especially paying him at the going rate for QBs.

His season totals the last two years does look bad. But it doesn’t take into the account that his slump lasted the second half of 2017 and first part of 2018. Which affected both seasons totals. Despite that slump being sandwiched by two stretches of really good, top 10 play.

But yes, if Dak returns to having long slumps like that again if putrid play. It will be trouble.

If he plays like he has the other 32 games of his career. We will be in good shape. It’s fair to ask the question of who is the “real Dak”. This season will be really telling on that.

 

[percyhoward]

Dak Prescott last year was
14th rating
18th ypa
18th qpr
19th ANY/A

The previous year he was
18th rating
19th ypa
4th QBR
19th ANY/A

He was top 5 in all of these categories his rookie season. It's very much in question whether he will even replicate those numbers let alone reproduce them consistently.

That makes it seem like he was great at the beginning, then has sucked since. Not the case, as we all know.

Prescott's first 25 games (2016-17)
102.4
middle 11 games -- 2017 at Atl to 2018 at Sea
74.2
last 15 games (all 2018)
100.0

 

[Section446]

It's best for both parties to wait until the end of the year.

 

[85Cowboy85]

His season totals the last two years does look bad. But it doesn’t take into the account that his slump lasted the second half of 2017 and first part of 2018. Which affected both seasons totals. Despite that slump being sandwiched by two stretches of really good, top 10 play.

But yes, if Dak returns to having long slumps like that again if putrid play. It will be trouble.

If he plays like he has the other 32 games of his career. We will be in good shape. It’s fair to ask the question of who is the “real Dak”. This season will be really telling on that.

I agree with you that there's some reason for optimism if you slice the data up different ways, but it's not a given. I think it's worth signing him just because of how difficult replacing a QB is, but I am prepared for the possibility that it does not work out.

 

[85Cowboy85]

You’re an idiot. 32-16 is all that counts.

Record is a poor way to evaluate QBs. If the production isn't there eventually the record is going to regress.

 

[HungryLion]

I agree with you that there's some reason for optimism if you slice the data up different ways, but it's not a given. I think it's worth signing him just because of how difficult replacing a QB is, but I am prepared for the possibility that it does not work out.

It’s definitely not a given. I won’t argue that.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Record is a poor way to evaluate QBs. If the production isn't there eventually the record is going to regress.

Its only poor when you want to use it in a argument to say Dak sucks.

 

[85Cowboy85]

That makes it seem like he was great at the beginning, then has sucked since. Not the case, as we all know.

Prescott's first 25 games (2016-17)
102.4
middle 11 games -- 2017 at Atl to 2018 at Sea
74.2
last 15 games (all 2018)
100.0

If we just look at his most recent season 100.0 sounds high but it's only 10th on the list for the season. That's after removing two of his worst games against Seattle and Carolina. I suspect that if you also did this for each other QBs on the list he would still probably be roughly 14th which is just the simple straight off the list number that I gave.

 

[percyhoward]

If we just look at his most recent season 100.0 sounds high but it's only 10th on the list for the season. That's after removing two of his worst games against Seattle and Carolina. I suspect that if you also did this for each other QBs on the list he would still probably be roughly 14th which is just the simple straight off the list number that I gave.

I want to know how he's trending, so I didn't remove anything. Those are his last 15 consecutive games. You can argue about how far to go back, but I'm interested in the point where his most recent trend clearly started (week after Seattle).

1 Wilson 114.7
2 Brees 109.4
3 Ryan 108.4
4 Mahomes 106.8
5 Wentz 103.9
6 Watson 102.6
7 Prescott 100.0
8 Cousins 100.0
9 Luck 99.8
10 Trubisky 99.7

That's how the number compares to the league during that time. If I cherry-picked certain bad games to remove for other QB but not Dak, then I guess I could drop him down to 14th, but what would be the point? I already know he stands at 7th.

 

[cern]

Imo, the record is the only thing that matters.

 

[Sydla]

You’re an idiot. 32-16 is all that counts.

The irony of this post is probably lost on you.

 

[Sydla]

Imo, the record is the only thing that matters.

This is a horrible stat to judge and pay your QB by.

It just is.

 

[cern]

This is a horrible stat to judge and pay your QB by.

It just is.

Elucidate.

 

[GMO415]

There was no Wentz or Goff watch.....let's keep it that way in DAL.

 

[Pass2Run]

This thread brings back old memories.

"Sometimes you have to get hit in the face with a skunk 2 or 3 times before you start to smell it." ~Bill Parcells

And the name was born: Henskunk.

Man, some of you hated me. But most all eventually came around.

All that behind us, this is a new era.

I hope they sign Dak so this team seals its identity for the next few years.

If they can't get it done this year, fire Garrett. And get this party started with a new coach.

 

[cern]

Yes, intellectual. Now pass the Grey Poupon, poopyhead.

Very intellectual response. The emotionally challenged are incapable of anything intellectual. When their sensibilities are offended, they fling their poop. But don't feel alone. Chimps and monkeys do the same.

 

[doomsday9084]

Record is a terrible way to evaluate Dak. He lucked into an incredible situation. Sure, the team was 4-12 the season before but it had the corpse of Darren McFadden as RB. Here is what is even worse, despite having McFadden as RB, Romo was 3-1 in games he played (12-4 pace for the math impaired among you). The team was 1-11 when Moore, Wheedon and Cassell started.

If anything, Dak supporters should use the 4-12 season to point that a really bad QB can make a good team look bad. And . .
- Dak obviously isn't a really bad qb
- Its not possible to just pick up an average qb any time you want

Regardless, while QB is a very important part of the team, he doesn't determine wins and losses. Every QB needs a good team around them to win and those wins and losses are about the whole team. All Dak's record says about him is that he is good enough to not screw up a good team.

 

[Sydla]

Elucidate.

Wins are the result of more than just the QB unless you are elite like Brady.

Plus when you look at someone like Dak, this team has logged wins when he’s been inadequate. Take that Oakland game a few years ago. You’d be paying Dak for that “win” but he was downright brutal that game. The defense won that game.

 

[cern]

Wins are the result of more than just the QB unless you are elite like Brady.

Plus when you look at someone like Dak, this team has logged wins when he’s been inadequate. Take that Oakland game a few years ago. You’d be paying Dak for that “win” but he was downright brutal that game. The defense won that game.

Then conversely that would be true of losses. All his losses could then be attributable to the team playing poorly. And even brady cannot be the exception to the rule.

 

[408Cowboy]

Come on Catch. You know it’s not true that “at worst” they will Be Dakish.

There are a lot of QB’s drafted in the first round that aren’t as good as Dak. It’s probably a 50/50 shot at best that you draft a QB as good as he is. And even less then 50% that they will be better than Dak.

Sure there’s a chance you could draft somebody better. But there’s also the chance that you burn a first round pick and end up with a worse QB.


There is plenty of risk involved with letting Dak walk and trying to replace him through the draft. At least be honest with yourself about the realities of what trying to replace him would look like.

I thought he was admitting Dak should've been a first round pick. I was way off.