@rocyaice
It's mere pedantry by me to the comment Dak Attack made about Dak's stat accumulation being indicative of his accuracy, when Jameis accumulated those same stats and was horribly inaccurate. But it also lends itself to being interpreted that I am supporting the OP's claim
"Firstly, we are talking about Dak as the QB here. He is not Mahomes. Accuracy is not his passport."
Which is a ridiculous statement on the surface because Dak has broken all kinds of accuracy records in his first 4 years. But if you take it within the context of this thread, he's still kind of right. Check this out....
When I google 'dak prescott deep ball accuracy", this comes up:
46.5%
Prescott was one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL during the 2017 season. He ranked as the fifth-most accurate quarterback with completing 46.5% of his deep balls, but he didn't take many deep shots throwing just 43, or a miniscule 8.8% of his total attempts according to Pro Football Focus.
Thats 3 seasons ago. But that's just a blanket %, what does it mean? Turns out any 20 yard pass is a deep ball. While that's technically accurate, this thread isn't asking for a sub-4.4 guy to run 20 yard routes and squat on it. Let's dive further:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project
Now here's 2 years ago. Ranked 20th now in the league, Dak Prescott is completing 45.8% of all passes over 21 yards. 1 percent difference dropped him 15 spots in the ranking? This doesn't make any sense. This is 2 different sites giving 'fact's that are somehow skewed. Are we counting a 5 yard pass and run? or Is one of them sailing for the 20 yards and one not requiring that? Let's look at last year's full breakdown by yard increments, with the ball sailing distance only, all done by the same site:
Notice the top right line, Accuracy ranked. The black column is his accuracy for each distance, and his league rank, all considered deep passes.
In 2019 Dak Prescott was the single greatest QB in the world at throwing deep passes under 25 yards. Very accurate. Both Gallup and Cooper excelled at these plays, find the gap in the zone and sit on it, or beat your man in short bursts and lead Dak to an open area for a highlight reel completion.
Between 26-30 yards, he dips down to 10th. Still good, right around the area most people on this board have him, whether its just inside of or just outside of the top 10. Combine the 2 and he's looking pretty good. But are you getting a Ruggs just to run these routes?
31-35 yards, suddenly Dak drops to 24th. 35-40 he's 19th. And anything over 41 yards he's still bottom half of the qualified QBs in the NFL. There is context here of course. Not as many passes go these distances, so 1 drop or overthrow will greatly change the %. But the lack of DEEP deep balls can be accredited to 2 reasons: Firstly, he doesn't have any reliable deep threats. Amari is a 20 million$ a year possession receiver. Everyone else in his price range can go for the home run ball, Julio, Antonio, (assumedly) OBJ, soon to be Deandre. Of course you and I both know Cooper is an excellent deep route receiver, and Gallup has all the makings of one too, so I don't see how this is really even a consideration. The second option is perhaps Dak is not confident in his deep ball. Add those up. 23 total passes all season that were in the air for 30+ yards. thats less than 2 a game. That's even less than 1.5 a game. Coaches aren't telling him not to throw it, or they wouldn't be bothering to even run those routes... which they did every prolonged drive.
How often do you think true gunslingers like to go long? How accurate are they? Every QB must have a handful of hail mary's every season right? Especially ones in as many losses as Dallas? Kyler Murray threw just as many 40+ yard passes as Dak, 7. He completed all 7. There's a pretty random stat, what's the takeaway with that? Kyler is clearly picking and choosing his attempts until they're ideal, as a rookie should be. But isn't Dak doing that as well? If he's being as selective on the high probability deep throws, why is he still missing so many of them? Let's go through some of the higher ranked QB's on their charts:
More attempts than Dak over 30 yards, and many more completions. Excellent completion % at every depth, with receivers every fanbase in the NFL would agree are much worse than Cobb, Gallup, Cooper.
Here's an interesting one. The records and the basic stats don't show it, but Mayfield actually had a similar (or even slightly superior) season to Dak throwing the ball deep downfield. Look at those 35 yard passes, that's crazy
Not a whole lot better than Dak, but the point here is he probably had the worst starting receiving corps in the NFL for a majority of the season, the "He only throws to Tight Ends" joke is fine and dandy, but Ertz isn't running 40 yards downfield. Carson attempted more and had a much higher completion % when picking his spots downfield. Eagles didn't lose any blowouts last year IIRC, so there's some hail mary's in that stat too. He had more desire to go deep, and completed them at a bigger clip, that builds confidence.
What is my point with all this? You could look at the limited attempts and say Dak didn't show enough to necessarily prove he lacks deep touch. But the counter argument could be made that he's not a reliable deep passer until he proves he is, and a sub-4.4 WR may go to waste in Dallas's current setup.