News: CW: Leading analytics team makes case for Cowboys letting Prescott walk

[CATCH17]

But we know what we have with Dak. We can win division with him. It’s all an unknown without him.

And why most teams don’t let their Franchise QB walk. You ride it out. For better or worse. It’s the safe bet.

This time a year ago I was saying we could be the safe team and stick with Dak or take a risk with Brady.

Brady went to the Bucs and now everyone just all of a sudden knew they were a good team all along when in reality nobody thought anything of them until he went there and even then nobody thought much of them.

Bucs are rewarded for taking a risk and we are in a worse spot then we were last season.

 

[75boyz]

Totally appreciate this post. I'm sure The Expert Zone QB Evaluation and Analytics Team do as well as evidenced by their much more knowledgeable response posts.

It's gotta be the elite data points, lol.

 

[aikemirv]

Sure, but who has faith we’ll hit on a QB in the draft?

And if you don’t how many years are we set back?

Why, because we are pinching about 3-5 million a year . Totally ridiculous!!

I guess set back from what is the question.

Next year - would be totally unlikely to fix this D into a championship D from what we saw last year.

Year 2 - still working on the D with limited funds, likely not to get anywhere of significance.

So if you are just looking for ward to watching a well functioning offense with no hope of postseason success , yes it will set you back from that!

 

[CWR]

I think the only way someone trades for him is a Carson Wentz type of deal because the problem with Dak is you have to pay him as well.

Yeah probably so. If we signed him and then traded you have to ask how many millions of cap space do you sacrifice for 2 first, or a first and a second or whatever his value is at the time. Like him or not I don't expect him to fall off in this offense so I think he retains that value. The question is will it be a worthwhile trade. I think it made sense for Philly because they had Hurts and the relationship with Wentz was fractured.

 

[HungryLion]

You don’t have to Draft the next Mahomes or Rodgers.. If you do then a Championship is incoming.

The point is you can build a better overall team without Dak.. With Dak you’re going to need him to actually carry the team and as you guys tell me all the time he needs defense, OL, WRs, RBs, TE, Coaching, good weather, good breakfast, good rest, and whatever else being optimal for him to get us to a Super Bowl.

You’re ignoring that a large propensity of QB’s drafted just flat out suck.

If you get one that sucks. It doesn’t matter what team you put around them. You aren’t going to be good.


I know you’re under the impression that finding a good QB is easy. But it isn’t. And there isn’t any evidence that there is.

Again. Signing Dak carries risks. Drafting a QB carries risks. You think odds are better the cowboys can compete if they draft a QB. I don’t. Simple as that.

You’re not going to convince me that it’s easy to find good QB play just because Catch17 says so, when all the evidence points to the contrary.

 

[Starforever]

They took the risk by drafting him.

They could’ve played it safe with Alex Smith who was having nice success and was almost due a contract.

Good QBs like Alex Smith are hard to find you know.. When you have one like him you gotta keep them.

Oh, you mean like Dak?

 

[fivetwos]

I don’t know and don’t care.. We can do a lot better than Dalton and still not pay Dak prices.

Dalton is a mediocre at best player and Dak is a slightly better then mediocre player and there is 20 of these guys like Tannehill, Beidgewater, Dalton, and Dak that all get you to the same place in the end.

Well if that's what you think of him then I understand your take.

Can't say I agree. They have a chance to win with him.....at least as good of a shot as they do with a Dalton type and one additional starting player (which is about the amount the savings would be).

Its a toss up at best, and considering how many more plays the QB is involved in, better off w the better player there....even if he is overpaid.

 

[Section446]

It's beyond time to move on.

 

[starfan1]

I’m not going to get into a debate about Byron Jones being terrible.. If you believe that then fine.. The guy who even wrote that doesn’t even believe it and says that the numbers look bad because the lack of targets against him and expects a bounce back.

He's not terrible and i would have rather paid him than zeke. But he was too expensive and he i certainly over rated by some in this forum. Not saying your one of them you can make that deamination.

 

[CATCH17]

You’re ignoring that a large propensity of QB’s drafted just flat out suck.

If you get one that sucks. It doesn’t matter what team you put around them. You aren’t going to be good.


I know you’re under the impression that finding a good QB is easy. But it isn’t. And there isn’t any evidence that there is.

Again. Signing Dak carries risks. Drafting a QB carries risks. You think odds are better the cowboys can compete if they draft a QB. I don’t. Simple as that.

You’re not going to convince me that it’s easy to find good QB play just because Catch17 says so, when all the evidence points to the contrary.

Yeah i'm not scared of drafting one.

The last time we were winning Superbowls we had one that we drafted in the first round.

You guys don't trust Jerry to draft one? lol.. He doesn't draft them.

 

[HungryLion]

Yeah i'm not scared of drafting one.

The last time we were winning Superbowls we had one that we drafted in the first round.

You guys don't trust Jerry to draft one? lol.. He doesn't draft them.

I’m not “scared” of drafting one either. I’ve said that if the cowboys do move on from Dak and draft one, then so be it. I’ll be rooting for that QB to succeed like I root for Dak now.

What I won’t do, is lie to myself and pretend it’s easy to find a QB and that drafting a good one is going to be no problem and without it’s own set of risks.


I’m also not going to lie to myself about how good Dak is or isn’t.

 

[CATCH17]

I’m not “scared” of drafting one either. I’ve said that if the cowboys do move on from Dak and draft one, then so be it.

What I won’t do, is lie to myself and pretend it’s easy to find a QB and that drafting a good one is going to be no problem and without it’s own set of risks.

Yeah.. I just don’t see it the same way in recent years..

I watch a guy like Teddy Bridgewater go to the Saints and win 7 games in a row or whatever including beating the Prescott lead Cowboys then go on to Carolina and be nothing special..

I see Ryan Tannehill go from being a bust in Miami to being viewed as a potential elite QB in Tennessee.


There are Trucks and there are Trailers at the QB position.

I believe there are about 15-20 of these QBs that all get the team to the same place.. I think if Dallas has Bridgewater all year and Carolina has Dak all year that the team results would be nearly identical.

If Dalton plays 16 games and Dak plays 16 games I think Dak might make us a game better at best if all things are equal.

We’re comparing Honda’s to Honda’s.. Dak may be a 2016 Honda but Dalton is a 2014 Honda that will get you to the same place.

 

[sunalsorises]

I see both sides of this. I realize that has been said. If they can’t agree now I don’t see another year on the exclusive tag making it easier.

I lean to doing the nonexclusive tag. Let Dak negotiate what he wants and have the final say in matching it. Two number ones may not equal Dak but they don’t hurt either if they aren’t willing/able to match.

 

[TexasBacon]

This is an article about an article. Ironically, their conclusion is the opposite of the headline:

"That the front office in Dallas would be willing to spend to the cap’s limit while a quarterback on a rookie contract is not guaranteed. They failed to do exactly that with Prescott. And thinking that another quarterback can come in to replicate even a facsimile of his production is dubious at best. The 53.8 Andy Dalton QBR cited would legitimately be be the worst of Prescott’s career. Today would be a good day to sign the franchise quarterback."

 

[EGTuna]

I agree with their end conclusion to move on from Dak, but not to resign internal guys. They should get draft capital AND cap space to build a playoff team on both sides of the ball.

The prudent move on Gallup is to trade him before he is a FA next year. So, Jerry will likely keep him and let him walk for nothing next year.

If Gallup left in FA this time next year, they would get a comp pick. Likely a 3rd or 4th. You're not getting more than a 3rd in a trade for Gallup anyway, so it's good to keep him in 2021 unless someone makes an offer that can't be refused.

 

[HungryLion]

Yeah.. I just don’t see it the same way in recent years..

I watch a guy like Teddy Bridgewater go to the Saints and win 7 games in a row or whatever including beating the Prescott lead Cowboys then go on to Carolina and be nothing special..

I see Ryan Tannehill go from being a bust in Miami to being viewed as a potential elite QB in Tennessee.


There are Trucks and there are Trailers at the QB position.

I believe there are about 15-20 of these QBs that all get the team to the same place.. I think if Dallas has Bridgewater all year and Carolina has Dak all year that the team results would be nearly identical.

If Dalton plays 16 games and Dak plays 16 games I think Dak might make us a game better at best if all things are equal.

We’re comparing Honda’s to Honda’s.. Dak may be a 2016 Honda but Dalton is a 2014 Honda that will get you to the same place.

I personally feel there is more differentiation between the say 5-9 best QB and the 15th best QB. Than what you believe. That’s fine. We can disagree on that.

I just also don’t feel confident that the cowboys FO can draft a QB either.

If the cowboys had a shot at Wilson or something. I would be cool with it. But I don’t want to just draft a QB for the sake of drafting one either. That’s how some teams end up on the QB carousel for a decade.

 

[Jimbo69]

Jerry will sign Dak. Stephen probably has doubts but Jerry thinks he doesnt need a defense.Sure he will pay lip service in the draft this year to look like he cares but he picked Lamb last year when we needed people all over the D. That's why he gave a 1st for Cooper to salvage Daks season. That's why our offence costs twice what the defense does before we give Dak the contract of a lifetime. That's why in 3 years time with the odd play off appearance Jerry will renegotiate another huge contract with Dak that will take up 20% of the new improved cap. That's why we have not sniffed a SB for 25 years.
Thats why people on this site disagree with signing Dak. I, like many want the best for this team and spending what will be after Dak is signed probably close to a 3 to 1 ratio of offence over Defence is not only crazy but impossible in the short or long term to sustain.
However this is all moot. Jerry is Jerry and will give Dak what Dak wants and the best FA in years will pass the Cowboys by as we sign our draft class, keep some underacheivers from this sorry team and bottom feed again for over the hill defensive bodies.
All a bit depressing.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Agree.

Eventually my radical opinion will become the mainstream opinion and everyone will have suddenly known all along that not overpaying for decent QB play was the right choice.



The Cowboys can’t expect to duplicate that once-in-a-generation Day 3 draft value. But they might be able to plug one of the refined rookie quarterback prospects such as Zach Wilson or Mac Jones into their offense and experience similar short-term success. That shift would dramatically lower the team’s floor for the 2020s, but it would also raise its ceiling. Already up against the salary cap, an expensive Prescott extension would accelerate the hemorrhaging of blue-chip free agents that started with Byron Jones last year. By resetting with a rookie quarterback, the Cowboys could retain their other stars and build like the Rams and Eagles from recent seasons, teams that leveraged the cost savings of Jared Goff’s and Carson Wentz’s inexpensive rookie deals into exceptional roster depth and eventual Super Bowl berths.

might be able to!!!! and short term success......with this defense, there is no way any rookie would have any short term success......and what the writer did do his homework, was that we didn't want Jones, were in midst of retooling the secondary...and didn't jones grade out as one of the worst CBs in the league? plus we have 7 of the top position contracts on the team....with Dak that made 8....how many top 5 contracts do you expect to fit under the cap? how many teams have 8 highly paid contracts on their team?

so fishing for a QB, with limited bait (draft picks), in dark waters is an excercise in futility, its gambling unnecessarily.....

 

[Motorola]

This is an article about an article. Ironically, their conclusion is the opposite of the headline:

"That the front office in Dallas would be willing to spend to the cap’s limit while a quarterback on a rookie contract is not guaranteed. They failed to do exactly that with Prescott. And thinking that another quarterback can come in to replicate even a facsimile of his production is dubious at best. The 53.8 Andy Dalton QBR cited would legitimately be be the worst of Prescott’s career. Today would be a good day to sign the franchise quarterback."

Yeah, 'TexasBacon' - I came to the same conclusion....it was a headscratcher to read that last sentence.

 

[JoeKing]

"Letting Dak walk?" No, it's more like Dak opting to walk. God bless him! More power to you #4.