CFZ Dak Interceptions - Regression to the Mean (Warning: Math Geek)

[Mac_MaloneV1]

The San Fran game was the perfect example he had a wide open Hilton for a Td and he chose i think it was lamb who was blanketed and it was an incompletion

He went to the hot read against a blitz lol. This is one of the dumbest takes people have.

Ball was dropped anyway.

 

[Starstruck22]

The last two sentences seem contradictory.

When did Dak become an "interception machine"? If so, how did he take Romo's job and then keep it and secure a new contract?

What makes you think Dak is slow? It's been well-reported he has a photographic memory and is over-prepared for games.

Dak has the same issue Romo had and many people who are "surprise" starters have: Legitimacy due to heightened expectations. It's one thing to win the job, it's another to be told to the win the SB. It has nothing to do with his intelligence, football intelligence or otherwise. I will even agree that he doesn't have the most "rubber" or flexible of arms. But intelligence? How would you know?

And if you want to make an argument that Dak is an elite qb and cannot crack the the second playoff game due to his own stupidity, knock yourself out!!!

 

[Starstruck22]

He went to the hot read against a blitz lol. This is one of the dumbest takes people have.

Ball was dropped anyway.

Excuses, excuses excuses he has the same amount of time and could have thrown to Hilton for a TD. He does not see it because of his own limitations as a lower tier qb and intellect. Hilton was only a few yards to the left of Lamb, wide open and Dak did not see it.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

I don't disagree that last year is definitely uncharacteristic and outlier, but the mean can move over time. although the more years you have the more stable the mean can be. I don't expect to see the same number of interceptions as it seemed he was frustrated at times and forced the ball, sometimes didn't see the field and the WRs didn't help (unusual number of bounces right into the defenders hand).

I don't think we will see only 6 interceptions, but getting to 10 would be a successful year. overly conservative like he was in 2016 then we are not being aggressive enough. with aggressiveness comes risks and rewards. hoping there are more rewards than interceptions.

 

[DoctorChicken]

I agree. I think he will throw less interceptions because -

- While some of his interceptions last year were just baffling decisions, a few were the fault of the receiver, like Brown in OT vs Jacksonville.

- The WR group in general is better. Cooks is a guy who knows how to get open - Noah Brown was not that guy. And while I appreciate what the ghost of TY Hilton did for us last season, he was a stop-gap. Gallup looked slow coming off the injury. This led to our WRs ranking dead last in the NFL in average separation - less separation means tighter throws which means more picks.

 

[Starstruck22]

I agree. I think he will throw less interceptions because -

- While some of his interceptions last year were just baffling decisions, a few were the fault of the receiver, like Brown in OT vs Jacksonville.

- The WR group in general is better. Cooks is a guy who knows how to get open - Noah Brown was not that guy. And while I appreciate what the ghost of TY Hilton did for us last season, he was a stop-gap. Gallup looked slow coming off the injury. This led to our WRs ranking dead last in the NFL in average separation - less separation means tighter throws which means more picks.

I am predicting at least 2 pics in sundays game against the gmen.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Excuses, excuses excuses he has the same amount of time and could have thrown to Hilton for a TD. He does not see it because of his own limitations as a lower tier qb and intellect. Hilton was only a few yards to the left of Lamb, wide open and Dak did not see it.

WROOONNNNGGGGGG

You're coached to go to your hot, it's not a play where you go through progressoins.

Talking about his intellect like you're a doctor lmao

 

[jazzcat22]

I am predicting at least 2 pics in sundays game against the gmen.

Predicting or Hoping?

 

[Vtwin]

The last two sentences seem contradictory.

When did Dak become an "interception machine"? If so, how did he take Romo's job and then keep it and secure a new contract?

What makes you think Dak is slow? It's been well-reported he has a photographic memory and is over-prepared for games.

Dak has the same issue Romo had and many people who are "surprise" starters have: Legitimacy due to heightened expectations. It's one thing to win the job, it's another to be told to the win the SB. It has nothing to do with his intelligence, football intelligence or otherwise. I will even agree that he doesn't have the most "rubber" or flexible of arms. But intelligence? How would you know?

The term, paralysis by analysis, comes to mind.

All the pre game preparation in the world doesn't matter when the opponent doesn't bring what you prepared yourself for, and you have to make split second decisions. The poster you replied to coined it as "quick smart". A half second makes all the difference sometimes. Like on the int to Gallup. Gallup took all the heat for that but that ball needs to be out before the receiver turns around. If not, a professional CB is going to have time to make a play.

Ironically, if Dak had been more aggressive on that play it likely wouldn't have resulted in an int.

 

[Vtwin]

Predicting or Hoping?

Always poking the bear.

 

[AbeBeta]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

Yes, regression to the mean is relevant to performances. But it is not particularly useful at an individual level. That is, if there was a league wide increase in interceptions, it would be reasonable to expect regression to the mean leading to fewer picks the following season. But that is based on a ton of data that give us some confidence about where the true mean should reasonably lie. Individual players -- particularly those with just five full seasons played don't produce enough data for regression to the mean to be useful for predictions.

 

[Vtwin]

He went to the hot read against a blitz lol. This is one of the dumbest takes people have.

Ball was dropped anyway.

The hot read was a WR well down the field? Ok.

That was a horrible read by Dak. He had time to go either way and he ignored Hilton for the easy TD.

 

[OGSixshooter]

The term, paralysis by analysis, comes to mind.

All the pre game preparation in the world doesn't matter when the opponent doesn't bring what you prepared yourself for, and you have to make split second decisions. The poster you replied to coined it as "quick smart". A half second makes all the difference sometimes. Like on the int to Gallup. Gallup took all the heat for that but that ball needs to be out before the receiver turns around. If not, a professional CB is going to have time to make a play.

Ironically, if Dak had been more aggressive on that play it likely wouldn't have resulted in an int.

split-second, good decision-making is borne from reps and/or luck. Dak does make good decisions consistently. But not in games where he has doubt due to heightened expectations. The poster makes it seem as if Dak is incapable of processing information fast and delivering a football. Tony Romo himself remarked at what Dak did at Pittsburgh by telling Stephen Jones right after the game that what he did was really hard and that it's Dak's team. This comes from a guy who predicts plays before they happen.

Dak is plenty plenty smart. To say otherwise would mean he got by on luck. I am a Dak critic, but that dog won't hunt.

 

[OGSixshooter]

And if you want to make an argument that Dak is an elite qb and cannot crack the the second playoff game due to his own stupidity, knock yourself out!!!

You're presuming to know my position. I am not in any "camp". I think therefore I am - singularly on my two.

So...try again. Perhaps this time with a question or a reply on topic.

 

[Vtwin]

split-second, good decision-making is borne from reps and/or luck. Dak does make good decisions consistently. But not in games where he has doubt due to heightened expectations. The poster makes it seem as if Dak is incapable of processing information fast and delivering a football. Tony Romo himself remarked at what Dak did at Pittsburgh by telling Stephen Jones right after the game that what he did was really hard and that it's Dak's team. This comes from a guy who predicts plays before they happen.

Dak is plenty plenty smart. To say otherwise would mean he got by on luck. I am a Dak critic, but that dog won't hunt.

Quick thinking is like accuracy. It might be able to be improved on, but it is entirely dependent on where you start. Dak has been criticized for being slow through his reads and for needing to see the receiver open, year in and year out. He tried to change at least part of that last season and we saw the results.

Dak is "smart" but he has shown year in and year out that he struggles to quickly process and make quick, confident decisions in the heat of the second. Both of those things can be true. We saw hard evidence of it the last game he played.

Dak has gotten by on being smart, hard work and help from his teammates, with some luck thrown in. His ceiling is what it is in part because he doesn't have that innate quality of being quick under fire. A half second to late can be an eternity, sometimes.

 

[jazzcat22]

Always poking the bear.

A legitimate question.
Especially with some known agendas.

You know it is the truth.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

The bottom line is Dak threw riskier passes in 2022 because he had too.

The Cowboys weren't about to publicly say Noah Brown and a post-ACL Michael Gallup weren't getting the type of separation they needed to on defenders. Lamb was the only true outside threat. Now they have have Lamb, Cooks, and a healthier Gallup so we will see what happens.

 

[Vtwin]

A legitimate question.
Especially with some known agendas.

You know it is the truth.

Even if is true, what is the point of bringing in up? The guy literally said "predicting".

It's a bad look Jazz. It is an "agenda" itself. It promotes dysfunction.

It would be like me peeing on the kitchen floor myself because I know my puppy is going to. All I end up with is a bigger mess and a puppy who thinks it's ok to pee on the floor.

 

[plasticman]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

The sample size is rather small and you are assuming a smooth level of performance. As you have mentioned, you are not accounting for any change in Dak's ability. Perhaps age or injury has caused him to slow down a little. Perhaps his experience has taught him additional methods to cut down on INT's. Performance is never consistent in the NFL and I don't know if the limited data is enough on which to base a confidence interval.

However, I think that, just looking at his historic numbers as one of the lowest INT rates since 1970, we can look upon last season as a single counter example of his past seasons performances. It was not his norm.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I hope he goes back to handing the ball off and throwing short 4-yard passes, that should be worth 50 million. Not many qb can do that.

Where has this myth of Dak as a dink-and-dunk guy come from? He's never been that, not remotely.