CFZ Dak Interceptions - Regression to the Mean (Warning: Math Geek)

[JD_KaPow]

Dak is an interception machine due to poor judgement, poor ability to see the field, and poor passing. There will be interceptions in the Giants game. Bank on it. It is Dak’s modus operandi. The argument that because he has been bad, he cannot continue to be bad or get worse is nonsense. I just do not believe
Dak is an upper echelon QB due to his intellect. He is really not very smart or quick smart like upper tier guys.

Your argument makes no sense. Dak has had one season with an elevated interception rate: last year. Before that, he had a very low interception rate. So unless you're suggesting that he used to have good judgement and good ability to see the field and good passing, but those things went away last year (and I know that's not what you're arguing), there's no way your theory can be correct.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Yes, regression to the mean is relevant to performances. But it is not particularly useful at an individual level. That is, if there was a league wide increase in interceptions, it would be reasonable to expect regression to the mean leading to fewer picks the following season. But that is based on a ton of data that give us some confidence about where the true mean should reasonably lie. Individual players -- particularly those with just five full seasons played don't produce enough data for regression to the mean to be useful for predictions.

It's exactly the opposite. Regression to the mean is how you compensate for small recent sample sizes by looking at larger prior samples sizes. It's primarily useful at the individual level.

If there were a league-wide increase in INTs over a season, it would most likely be due to some actual change in the game, and you wouldn't necessarily expect regression to the mean without understanding the underlying mechanism. But when an individual's INT rate spikes in one season without a similar effect across the league, your first expectation would be that it would regress to the mean, precisely because the sample size is small relative to the prior sample sizes both of that QB and the league.

Dak threw 2048 passes from 2018-2021 with a very consistent 0.017 INTs per attempt. I have no idea why you think that's too small a sample size to work with.

 

[Vtwin]

Your argument makes no sense. Dak has had one season with an elevated interception rate: last year. Before that, he had a very low interception rate. So unless you're suggesting that he used to have good judgement and good ability to see the field and good passing, but those things went away last year (and I know that's not what you're arguing), there's no way your theory can be correct.

You're leaving out the most important aspect.

That being the well documented initiative to be more aggressive. Previously, his judgement would have kept him from throwing some balls he chose to throw last season, in an effort to be more aggressive.

 

[Whirlwin]

Dak is an interception machine due to poor judgement, poor ability to see the field, and poor passing. There will be interceptions in the Giants game. Bank on it. It is Dak’s modus operandi. The argument that because he has been bad, he cannot continue to be bad or get worse is nonsense. I just do not believe
Dak is an upper echelon QB due to his intellect. He is really not very smart or quick smart like upper tier guys.

Maybe you shouldn’t go to the bar and watch games. There’s no other excuse I can give you for this assessment.

 

[JD_KaPow]

You're leaving out the most important aspect.

That being the well documented initiative to be more aggressive. Previously, his judgement would have kept him from throwing some balls he chose to throw last season, in an effort to be more aggressive.

The "interception machine's" "poor judgement" kept him from throwing interceptions? Nice backtracking.

 

[pansophy]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

I don't really think Dak's performance last year can be attributed to random variation when regression to the mean would be most applicable. There were a lot of circumstances at play. Offensive was aggressive with less talented WR's (and Gallup not 100%). Dak made mistakes, WR's made mistakes. I do think Dak will throw fewer INTs this year, but its a new offense with better WRs that is designed to more conservative. So given all the changes I don't think it will be possible to determine if regression to the mean is really at play or not.

 

[Whirlwin]

The last two sentences seem contradictory.

When did Dak become an "interception machine"? If so, how did he take Romo's job and then keep it and secure a new contract?

What makes you think Dak is slow? It's been well-reported he has a photographic memory and is over-prepared for games.

Dak has the same issue Romo had and many people who are "surprise" starters have: Legitimacy due to heightened expectations. It's one thing to win the job, it's another to be told to the win the SB. It has nothing to do with his intelligence, football intelligence or otherwise. I will even agree that he doesn't have the most "rubber" or flexible of arms. But intelligence? How would you know?

The entire statement is a contradiction

 

[Whirlwin]

The San Fran game was the perfect example he had a wide open Hilton for a Td and he chose i think it was lamb who was blanketed and it was an incompletion. Plus started off game with 2 inexplicable pics in coverage. All due to stupidity. People blamed Moore but Moore is not making stupid snap judgments Dak is. I am predicting one or 2 pics in the Giants game. It will happen. Bank on it. Then we can blame McCarthy.

So one possibly bad play , and all of the sudden his whole career sucks

 

[USArmyVet]

Dak's pass attempts have been increasing every season and with the offense getting a new WR in Cooks while not doing anything to help the running game, count on Dak reaching near or above 600 pass attempts.....and keep in mind Dak in 3 of the last 4 seasons has double-digit INT's so expect this season to be no different in terms of Dak turnovers.

 

[CCBoy]

Dak's pass attempts have been increasing every season and with the offense getting a new WR in Cooks while not doing anything to help the running game, count on Dak reaching near or above 600 pass attempts.....and keep in mind Dak in 3 of the last 4 seasons has double-digit INT's so expect this season to be no different in terms of Dak turnovers.

Does that leave his yardage at 5,000 + yards and highest TD stats of career?

 

[Vtwin]

The "interception machine's" "poor judgement" kept him from throwing interceptions? Nice backtracking.

Really?

You honestly can't understand how forcing oneself out of a well established comfort zone can lead to different result?

"Poor judgement" can also manifest itself in NOT throwing the ball when he should. Dak has been regularly criticized for that very thing. He tried to change that last year. His interceptions went up well above the mean. It's pretty hard to ignore that coincidence, even with the other extenuating circumstances considered.

For the record, I never used the words you have in quotes.

 

[jazzcat22]

Even if is true, what is the point of bringing in up? The guy literally said "predicting".

It's a bad look Jazz. It is an "agenda" itself. It promotes dysfunction.

It would be like me peeing on the kitchen floor myself because I know my puppy is going to. All I end up with is a bigger mess and a puppy who thinks it's ok to pee on the floor.

Why does it concern you so much. I asked a legitimate question.

 

[BoyzBlaster]

He's definitely regressing alright.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

I don't think its really that hard to figure out. Both him and Moore said that they wanted to be more aggressive with the throws. Instead of dumping off, Dak was frequently throwing into tighter covered routes. If the receiver stepped wrong, the ball got bobbled or if Dak was a little off with the throw it was far more likely to get intercepted than earlier in his career when Dak was more careful with the ball (which lead to the Dink and Dak complaints).

the other piece was the WRs having to make decision late in routes and having the QB and WR on the same page. great example is the GB game. I am not saying it wasn't Dak's fault or Lamb's fault, but when you don't put your players in position to succeed, then chances are things like this will happen. Moore was often too smart or tried to be too smart for his own good.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Very simple. Early on his reads were simple, he did not take chances, if it wasn't there he took off. Then he got hurt. Then he signed his big deal. Now his reads are more difficult, he takes more chances, if it isn't there he stays in the pocket and gets sacked or forces it. The difference in his play is obvious. The impact it has on INTs is obvious.

why are the reads more difficult. Moore was the OC for several years..... did the reads become more difficult last year compared to two years ago? the one thing that was said, even by MM is they wanted to be more aggressive. with more aggresiveness comes risk and rewards. risks are interceptions.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Why would you do the math as interceptions per game instead of per attempt?

From 2018-2021, his INT/attempt rates were 0.015, 0.018, 0.018 and 0.017. In 2022, it was 0.038.

Obviously, your point about regression to the mean stands. But straight-ahead regression assumes nothing has fundamentally changed. If, for instance, Dak is actually a worse QB now, because of age or other factors, you wouldn't expect as much regression. And as others have pointed out, if they have changed their risk-reward calculus, you again wouldn't expect as much regression.

Fortunately, I think the biggest factors point the other way. The WR corps was godawful last year, worst in the league at separation and constantly knocking catchable balls into the air. The WR group looks so much better this year that it's not even funny. I expect his INT rate to regress fully back to his career averages. The wild card is the offensive changes MM will bring, but if it's more West-Coasty, that generally means more short high-percentage passes, which would also tend to drive INT rate down.

If Dak plays the full season, he'll probably throw around 600 passes. At his pre-2022 rate, that would mean about 10 INTs on the season, which is pretty much exactly what happened in 2021 and 2019.

regression often manifests slowly. this was a huge jump (more than double) from one year to the next. thus one has to look at underlying factors other than player regressing. so in essence there were several factors contributing, as you said WRs, I think Moore was at fault and MM wanting to be more aggressive. more importantly Moore and MM weren't on the same page and when leadership isn't on the same page, it shows in your organization and it showed.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dak is an interception machine due to poor judgement, poor ability to see the field, and poor passing. There will be interceptions in the Giants game. Bank on it. It is Dak’s modus operandi. The argument that because he has been bad, he cannot continue to be bad or get worse is nonsense. I just do not believe
Dak is an upper echelon QB due to his intellect. He is really not very smart or quick smart like upper tier guys.

so how did he go from being above average in turnovers to all of a sudden and interception machine. how did he all of a sudden forget to see the field and make poor judgement. over one season to the next.

its more like you have an agenda to drive and have a tunnel vision and comment.

and one thing we agree. Dak is not Elite. not sure why everyone keeps complaining about Dak not playing at Elite level. I really don't get the point.

 

[pansophy]

the other piece was the WRs having to make decision late in routes and having the QB and WR on the same page. great example is the GB game. I am not saying it wasn't Dak's fault or Lamb's fault, but when you don't put your players in position to succeed, then chances are things like this will happen. Moore was often too smart or tried to be too smart for his own good.

People tend to worry too much about whose fault something was. if the offense is called to be ag and you have WR’s that aren’t getting much separation the likelihood that the WR and QB read the play differently goes up. That’s one of the aspects of Moore’s offense of doing ‘x’ if you see this and ‘y’ if you see that.

All of these circumstances are changing. in the WCO WRs will think less and go faster, the WR core is improves with Cooks and Gallup healthier, and McCarthy wants to be less aggressive.

if Dak has a bunch of INTs this year it will be for complete different reasons than last year.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

The San Fran game was the perfect example he had a wide open Hilton for a Td and he chose i think it was lamb who was blanketed and it was an incompletion. Plus started off game with 2 inexplicable pics in coverage. All due to stupidity. People blamed Moore but Moore is not making stupid snap judgments Dak is. I am predicting one or 2 pics in the Giants game. It will happen. Bank on it. Then we can blame McCarthy.

actually you would be wrong on that throw because you focused on Hilton at the end of the play and saw him wide open. if you watched film, you would see at the moment of the throws when decision was made to go to lamb, Hilton was not open. thus that would not have been the throw or should not. further, Lamb was covered by a LB, expectations are that a WR should be a LB and the QB can see that as a match up issue and target the WR.

little things in football that get lost on casual observers and fans. go watch it again. frame by frame. you will learn

 

[Vtwin]

Why does it concern you so much. I asked a legitimate question.

Because I am a member of this forum and I hate to see it dragged down by someone who should be setting the example.

Not sure if you've noticed, but the decorum has been a very hot topic. A lot of bickering and angst.

Here is a legitimate question or two for you...

Why do you choose to provoke instead of lead?
Why does it concern YOU so much?

I ask these legitimate questions.