Dak, Time to Release, and Air Yards

[Future]

We can't determine from the data, though, if the ball is taking longer to arrive when the receiver gets open. All we can derive is that it is taking him longer to get the ball out of his hands, whether that's because it is taking him longer to spot the open receiver, a slower delivery, moving around in the pocket, etc.

Whether the receiver is open earlier than when he throws the pass or the amount of time it is in the air compared to other QBs would take a different set of data.

Well what we can derive is how far he is throwing it related to how long he has it in his hands. Assuming that QBs aren't just blindly throwing to covered WRs - Dak certainly doesn't - it's indicative of a QB being able to see and take shots down the field. Yes, there are plenty of variables that this doesn't account for, so no, it's not perfect. But I like it a lot more in this context than, say, Y/A, because it doesn't depend on whether or no the WR actually catches the ball.

It's also not supposed to be reflective as a passing game as a whole (though no offense wants the QB sitting in the pocket and then consistently dumping it down).

 

[Nova]

Dak is late with his throws.

You don’t need stats to tell you that.

And honestly, I don’t think these stats clearly state that because of a ton of variables.

I think the issue is trying to combine the two stats to draw a conclusion.

The AIYA stat gives us a clear picture of how aggressively we’re slinging it around the field, but the time to release is predicated on too many variables.

Nice thread though.

 

[Future]

Here's why I don't like Attempted Air Yards...

Average intended air yards
Winston 10.8
Trubisky 9.1
Watson 8.7
Prescott 7.6
Brady 7.5
Brees 7.1

Passer rating on 20+ yard targets
Brees 130.0
Prescott 109.1
Brady 99.5
Trubisky 78.0
Watson 76.2
Winston 57.2

Yea, that's fair, and I agree. I only like attempted as a measure of what a QB is trying to do, not how well they're doing it. But on the flip side, passer rating is skewed towards conservative QBs who throw to matchups.

We know that Dak is a "see it, throw it" QB, so a low AIYA, relative to the time he's sitting in the pocket, means he's not seeing things down the field. Yes, there are factors as to why he will/won't see something down the field, but it also means that he's always going to have a higher rating on those targets, because he doesn't throw it if they're not open.

 

[Future]

Dak is late with his throws.

You don’t need stats to tell you that.

And honestly, I don’t think these stats clearly state that because of a ton of variables.

I think the issue is trying to combine the two stats to draw a conclusion.

The AIYA stat gives us a clear picture of how aggressively we’re slinging it around the field, but the time to release is predicated on too many variables.

Nice thread though.

In general, I agree.

But if I'm nitpicking, QBs who get rid of the ball quickly get rid of the variables. Drew Brees is great not because of his arm talent, but because he knows where he is going with the football before the snap. Because of that, there are no post-snap variables that make him hold the football, and he knows when a play is lost quickly. Same thing Brady and Peyton always did. Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo were similar, but had the mindset to keep a play going after it was "lost," which can result in sacks and turnovers. That's why Brees struggled against Dallas when WRs couldn't win against man, and guys like Mariota can torch this defense.

 

[Cebrin]

It's not bashing. Bashing is baseless and akin to "Dak sucks and is a backup." It's just a discussion of what Dak actually is as a passer which, generally speaking, is slow to progress through reads and struggles to deliver down the field.

It's only bashing to those who refuse to accept that Dak is flawed as a passer. Did I say he's not a starter in the league? Did I say Dallas can't win with him? Did I say that Blake Bortles is better?

Welcome to the new CZ, where being critical of any player becomes "Hater" "Basher" "Go root for some other team fake fan" "Typical Cowboys fan, never happy even after a win". It feels like sometimes the only thing we're supposed to do is be bone headed stans. "WOOOO COWBOYS RULE! MERICA!" Then someone takes that away too.

 

[Roadtrip635]

There's also a trend in sports, especially with older fans, to dismiss any stat that isn't a traditional ratio or counting stat as "made up" because some nerd with a computer came up with it. But those nerds with computers are the reason why the Astros have a WS Trophy. Mathematics and the deeper dive they provide reveal relationships between data points that can be manipulated to provide better outcomes. Its the reason why MLB teams are beefing up with analysts.

MLB and basketball are easier to use analytics because a lot of the situations are based on 1on 1 interactions and the variables lessened. It's easier to figure how a particular batter does against left handers, generally it's a 1on1 action, there's some variance in how the fielders are positioned, but smaller by comparison to football. Baseball and basketball also have a much larger data pool to draw on by the sheer number of games played and games played against the same players/teams. The stats derived in football are so heavily dependent on all 11 players every play.

 

[percyhoward]

Yea, that's fair, and I agree. I only like attempted as a measure of what a QB is trying to do, not how well they're doing it. But on the flip side, passer rating is skewed towards conservative QBs who throw to matchups.

We know that Dak is a "see it, throw it" QB, so a low AIYA, relative to the time he's sitting in the pocket, means he's not seeing things down the field. Yes, there are factors as to why he will/won't see something down the field, but it also means that he's always going to have a higher rating on those targets, because he doesn't throw it if they're not open.

Among other things, passer rating rewards QB who are successful at taking advantage of matchups. He's only going to have a high rating on those targets if he hits them. And there's absolutely no correlation between a low number of deep attempts and a high passer rating on deep throws.

Of the 32 QB with the most deep attempts, 6 of the top 10 in deep attempts have passer ratings above 100. Only 3 of the bottom 10 in deep attempts have a passer rating above 100.

 

[ClintDagger]

Dak is trending in the right direction as a passer. What he lacked most was confidence. Now he’s trying throws that he used to shy away from. The one complaint I have now is that over the past 5 or 6 weeks he’s probably missed close to 10 easy TDs. Some through overthrowing a wide open dude, and some through never seeing a wide open dude. Now every QB has that happen, but I think it’s happening a little too much with Dak. Hopefully as he continues growing in confidence that will trend down to where you hope it can be.

The biggest complaint right now is lack of pocket awareness and ball security. Too many sacks and strips that should be avoidable, and too much holding the ball out where it can get knocked away when he knows he’s under duress and should be pulling that sucker in. I know they have to be working on this stuff so hopefully that work pays off.

 

[Clove]

After rewatching the game, I came away perplexed at Gallup who actually stopped on his route 3 times, and a minimum of 2. The first TD should have been his but he hesitated instead of running through, he would have caught it in the back of the end zone.

2nd possession, we get down to near goal line, two consecutive penalties on the OFFENSIVE LINE pushed us out of scoring range, WE MISS THE FIELD GOAL.

On the first interception, it wasn't all on Dak, although he should have put that ball in the back of the end zone, but he put it out there perfectly and #32 peeled off a TE to make the interception. Horrible route design to have a TE running routes on that side of the field, it should have been Beasley on a crossing route, then the corner is forced to follow Beasley or peel off, then Dak either doesn't throw it, or Dak hits that TD. Terrible route design

Several times in that game in the red zone, we NEVER EVER used a bunch formation unless we ran the ball. Do you know what we can do in a bunch formation with Beasley & Cooper? We could be seriously deadly.

LVE had a bad game (by his standards) so did Smith, both in coverage against the rookie TE & the fast and deadly Sproles. By the way, on that 4th down play that gave Philly extra life, it was an illegal pick that got Sproles the catch and thus the first down. His guy made contact with LVE, wiped him out from making the play which IMO, is bull crap, but I'll let it slide since the refs were horrible on both sides of the ball. That 4th down play gave them 3.

We had a terrible penalty on Randy Gregory when their DE pushed Gregory in the back, Gregory fell down and made the tackle, if he hadn't made the tackle, he would have made contact with Goff all day.

Goff was terrible. Byron Jones was caught looking in the backfield when he had that long catch caught on him.

Our route/scheme design is very inconsistent and IMO, borderline bad. The one great play where Amari was wide open came from Amari being in the slot, slanting across the middle. Why can't we run plays like that all the dang time? There was a time when we had a zero coverage on defense, we had Amari one on one, and what did we do, run it from a heavy set. We're just a stupidly coached team.

There's more that I missed, and I'm paraphrasing it, but the overall opinion that I came away with is that Gallup needs to be more decisive in his route running and NEVER hesitate on a deep route. He missed out on 2 big plays because of hesitation. The play-calling is borderline bad, needs to be changed. Martin had his worst game giving up two untimely sacks, which he never does. The interior of our line needs to be shored up if we can't shore up the tackles, give Dak a place to step up in, but it's weak right now in pass coverage. Dak did throw 2 INTs and made one fumble which he already knows he can't do, but on that first interception, the route design on that one from the left side was as bad as it gets. It allowed #32 to peak in the back field and drift, otherwise a nice play call for Amari.
The game should have been over by the end of the 4th, but Looney had a terrible snap. All in all, we played a subpar game and came away with the victory. Everyone took part in this being close, and the last time I checked, nearly all of our division games come down to this. The defense wasn't as bad as I thought, but they had some problems covering the second TE after Eartz was blanketed and Byron Jones made a mistake.

To me Dak was decisive, made quick throws, he beat the blitz every time, he was aggressive, things the haters complain about, and of course he made some mistakes like all QBs seem to make. He's a darn good QB IMO, but everyone has their own opinion.

For the OP, keep spewing your ridiculous commentary you have plenty of dead beat followers to praise you... So enjoy your misery, Jerry is signing Dak.

 

[Future]

Among other things, passer rating rewards QB who are successful at taking advantage of matchups. He's only going to have a high rating on those targets if he hits them. And there's absolutely no correlation between a low number of deep attempts and a high passer rating on deep throws.

Of the 32 QB with the most deep attempts, 6 of the top 10 in deep attempts have passer ratings above 100. Only 3 of the bottom 10 in deep attempts have a passer rating above 100.

Well attempt volume is largely irrelevant, but attempt quality would, even though it's a lot harder to measure. Yards of separation and completions on "jump balls" would greatly influence rating on balls down the field. Especially when we're talking about, even on the teams that chuck it the most, a handful of passes a game.

But if you compare Dak to, say, Jameis, of course Dak is going to have the better passer rating on those throws. He only throws those balls when there is man coverage (which, fine, that's smart) and generally only when the WR wins. Almost every QB in the league is going to have a high rating when they don't even try to throw the contested balls. Jameis, on the other hand, chucks it all the time, so Tampa's downfield passing game is going to be a lot more dynamic, even if the rating is a lot worse.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Petty blame game? We are discussing how useful advanced stats are in football. What the?



You types? Ok, yeah. Im done. You want to fight about who is right, who is wrong about the QB and therefore is a better fan and have your peeing contest, find someone else to have it with. You weren't interested in a stat discussion in the first place. You just wanted to use it as a bludgeon against anyone you think isn't all-in on Dak.

Poorly said, but the blame games used to prove how horrible or how great Dak is. Somebody whips out a couple stats to prove one or the other and say "Look here's the proof" Misuse, misinterpretation or context of the stats are usually left out. Like Twain used to say, there's lies, dang lies, and then there's statistics.

 

[Vandyr]

They get mixed together quite often. Those criticizing Prescott without pointing out the positives stick out like a sore thumb.

What kind of overly sensitive crap is this? If I point out a bad throw he made, do I really need to add in "but what a scramble he did four plays ago!" just so I don't offend anyone's fragile sensibilities?

Some of you homers need to toughen the F up. Dak does have positives, but he also has negatives. You need to grow a pair and accept that they won't always be mentioned in the same sentence.

 

[Captain-Crash]

very good defense, very good rb and wr, but average to bad qb.

 

[G2]

What kind of overly sensitive crap is this? If I point out a bad throw he made, do I really need to add in "but what a scramble he did four plays ago!" just so I don't offend anyone's fragile sensibilities?

Some of you homers need to toughen the F up. Dak does have positives, but he also has negatives. You need to grow a pair and accept that they won't always be mentioned in the same sentence.

I didn't quote anything you posted, so I'm not sure what you're ranting about. If you had any sort of clue, you would also know I'm not sensitive at all. And, you missed my point I was making.
Maybe next time read the entire conversation before jumping in thinking you're some badass.

 

[G2]

it's literally already made a huge difference in these numbers.
we should judge Dak from the point Cooper arrived on. it's changed everything.

I do think the changes in the O line sort of worked themselves out in regard to coaching and some player changes.

 

[Dre11]

Of those five, only Goff and Mahomes average more than a yard per attempt more than Prescott.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/passing.htm

Percy showing this chump the real deal....lol

 

[cmoney23]

J. Winston - 2.75, 10.8
J. Flacco - 2.71, 8.4
.

If we only had Jamis Winston or Joe Flacco! Then he'd get the ball out quickly and push it down field!
Dang!

 

[percyhoward]

Jameis, on the other hand, chucks it all the time, so Tampa's downfield passing game is going to be a lot more dynamic, even if the rating is a lot worse.

Yeah, much more dynamic. Including a wide variety of overthrows, underthrows, interceptions, and TD to the tune of a line that looks like this.

Winston 20+ yard targets
9 of 32 295 yd 3 td 4 int 57.2

 

[Oh_Canada]

Who cares?

 

[zerofill]

I don't think there is an agenda... in the thread. The stats are, what the stats are. I am just not a big believer in stats when it comes to evaluating players. Because of the variables... (same players, same situations, etc...)

But...

When someone posts positive stats they have an agenda with the people not on the Dak train.

When people post stats that show Dak's flaws they are a hater.

Frankly it is simple...

Dak is a QB with mediocre ability to read defenses, mediocre arm talent, that holds the ball too long, but has a will to win. Sometimes heart can trump skill... When all the players around you are on the same page, and
are helping you, and are great.

But, I mentioned before, people compare him to Russell Wilson, which I think is fair... because really the first 4 seasons or so, Wilson wasn't amazing at all. He was boring to watch, and he had a defense that made
all the difference for him, and they won a super bowl, and made it to another one. It Took Wilson 5 to 6 seasons to become a good QB. He had games where his passing yards were through the roof in stats, and others where he didn't break 200 yards. His last game, he didn't break 100 did he? I didn't see all the stuff that people gushed over about Wilson being elite (I still don't). He had a couple 4k yard seasons... He goes on runs where he makes passes, and then he sucks... Really he and Dak are long lost brothers in my book.

We came from a QB that could beat you with his arm, or even beat his own team with his arm... But, could read a defense, and laser some balls, and made quick decisions, and was exciting to watch. Some of the most
amazing escapes in football history. But, this team was really not designed ever to win it all during his time. Jerry admitted he screwed up, and honestly... they are making some good decisions to not repeat the mistakes
of the past.

But as a fan base we are used to that, and then we change... the entire team dynamic changes... Fan bases have a hard time with change. People in general do not like change. I didn't like the change... In two season you lost
Romo, Dez, and Witten. They were the faces of the franchise, like the triplets.

Can Dak become great? I think Dak, possibly could, but my problem the whole time was waiting for it to happen. That change thing, is rough to swallow.

But, now we are in a position where the defense is pretty friggin good. They have the ability to keep the score low. So Dak has the chance to make nail biting wins. He has the chance to even win a SB, yet be a mediocre QB.

Blake Bortles almost made it to the Super Bowl, so we know you can. Wilson made it to the Super Bowl and won, because of a superior defense. He was pedestrian like as well in my book.

I mean that Denver game was soul crushing to them (Denver). The first snap goes past Manning into the endzone for a safety... That whole game was kind of a WTH?? Game...

Look at Wilson's playoff run to Super Bowl win:

That is very Dak-ish

But we right now have our own Legion of Boom... Hard to pass on us, and REALLY hard to run on us.

The problem is simple... Dak is not going to beat you based on arm talent except in rare situations (Eagles worst secondary in the NFL right now)

He needs elite players around him, and he needs input on play changes... Like Amari telling him the stop routes sucked. You know we are famous for running curl routes etc, over and over and over and over...

So if Zeke or Amari go down, the party is over. The Cowboys margin for error is such a fine line, that it is nerve wracking at times.

Teams have to deal with Cooper on passing downs. This frees up Zeke as a checkdown target, and rushing yards.

Even when they show a stacked box, and LBs ready to blitz, you will see the LBs back off and go into zone coverage many times. Just trying to screw with Dak's head.

Now teams are going to start doubling Cooper, which will free up more checkdowns to Zeke, etc...

Dak's skill isn't an integral part of this team winning or losing. But obviously they mesh well together somehow. Basically, it is backyard football. He needs players to come back to the huddle, and say
this is happening to me, let's try this. Dez was a 50/50 ball guy, so in his opinion he was open no matter what. Cooper is really elite in route running, so he finds space. Which with Dak's arm talent, is what is needed.

I really like Amari, he was actually one of my favorite receivers, and even I was against him coming here on a 1st round pick. Because I thought we needed to be looking for a QB.

I still think being the franchise we are, we should be able to find our Rodgers... but, they are tough to come by. Mahomes is a freak... the kid sees the field and reads defenses in an amazing way. Like some
type of prodigy... I don't think anyone expected that. Maybe their scouting department did.

Frankly we didn't have a chance at him, and Dallas wasn't picking him anyway after the 2016 season in Dallas.

But, if you take Zeke or Cooper out right now, it throws the whole thing off balance. Just like our defense when Lee was missing last year.

One player being out, should not destroy a team... That is why the Cowboys, the most valuable franchise in sports, are one of the most nerve wracking teams there is.

But, if they can hold this strategy together, and then actually find the type of backups we need to sustain it, when injuries happen... We have a serious chance of winning smash mouth football,
in a league where that isn't the way the game is played. But, the balance needs to stay, even if we have major injuries.

So for that to happen, Dak better be ready to suck it up at contract time. I said that long before Colin did... If Dak thinks he deserves a contract that cripples this team, he needs to hit
the bricks... Because, Dak is actually one of the most replaceable pieces in the way this team is made. Whether Dak fanatics believe that or not, or believe it, but don't want to say it,
it is a fact. Making $20mil a year, won't cripple the team... If any person can't live their life off one years salary they have issues. let alone multiple years at that salary... While still
playing for your childhood favorite team.

So the salary negotiations will show the real character of Dak. His change in agents has many people worried...