Dak's odds of winning the championship at 31?

[5Stars]

You be on here day and night with me though lol…..

Try proper English sometime.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I'm going to sleep, honey bunch, you go get your little fantasy out on someone else.

Gaslight the hell out of them...lol my azz.

What does gaslight mean?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Try proper English sometime.

You…..be….on…this….here….forum….with….me…

Better?

 

[davidr295]

I guess you and I are the same person to that poor simple minded lonely poster that stay up day and night on this forum.

I guess so. Rabbit hole always has the same sus stuff to say in these threads.

 

[5Stars]

I guess so. Rabbit hole always has the same sus stuff to say in these threads.

Yeah, just a lonely soul with nothing better to do but think about some "burner account' crap, you will catch on to her/him.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

With this comment something tells me you have to stay 50 feet away from schools.

I'm not even sure you understood what you just said. I mean if you are going to serve me up word salad at least throw some Cesar dressing on that.

 

[gimmesix]

Improving from here relies on miracle drafts in a short period either way. So does a full rebuild.

This part is all that is relative. Dak's odds of winning a championship, like any QB for the Cowboys since Jimmy Johnson left, is dependent on what this front office does. Since it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon, the odds are close to zero.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I'm not even sure you understood what you just said. I mean if you are going to serve me up word salad at least throw some Cesar dressing on that.

Observing you up. Just a observation based on your comment.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I guess so. Rabbit hole always has the same sus stuff to say in these threads.

Yeah, just a lonely soul with nothing better to do but think about some "burner account' crap, you will catch on to her/him.

Talking to yourself to defeat me is willlllldddd.

 

[Cowboys5217]

A 4th round or later pick, over 30, still on the team that drafted him….

NEVER been done.

Dak won’t be the first. He’s not special.

The numbers are even cherry picked to help Dak and it still doesn't work out. The real percentage chance against Dak is over 99% as that takes into account all QBs that have ever played in the SB era and the ages that they reached them.

Dak has less than 1% chance of leading the Cowboys to a SB win. That just isn't worth marrying a franchise's future to.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Not sure what you're trying to say. NE drafted Brady. Brady won his last super bowl w/ them in 2018 season at the age of 41. He was a 4th round pick or later and still w/ his original team. What am I missing?

Brady won multiple Super Bowls before 30.

I guess I should’ve clarified “1st Super Bowl” but we were talking about the loser Dak and I thought that was a given.

 

[DuncanIso]

This is why Lance has been taking snaps in OTAs.

 

[acr731]

We should start a pool..... How many times will Dak tell everyone he promises he will do better? And then not do it.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Well Dak is going on 31 - which is why the window exists as it does.

 

[Blitzen]

This surprises me a bit but just to be clear, it can be done! Just the odds are not in his favor using numbers from the last 24 years.

The actual statistical chance he wins the SB with the Cowboys is so close to zero that you could just say zero. The way that percentage presentation was made is from someone that has no idea how statistics are used in actual business. You look at significant trends from the individual, and compare it to trends from all other QB’s to ever play the game.

No other QB in the history of the league starts even appearing in CCG let alone winning SB after so many seasons with the same club (with so little success in previous postseasons). The guys that do win SB’s in their later 30’s typically had already appeared in at least one CCG earlier in their career. The ones winning many SB’s in their 30’s are Mt Rushmore HOF types. Maybe he wins it with another franchise, but it will not be in Dallas if math has any say in it.

 

[Qcard]

OMG, you can't be this dense. my question was about the stat he posted. not about Dak. he said nobody won after they are 30 or that's how I read it, or is it winning it if you are exactly 30 or 31.

geez dude, give it a rest. Dak is in your head 365x24x7x60x60.... relax. breath....deep breaths...

Dak Haters are flailing....

This is the Day Trey Lance takes over team by performing better that Prescott is Training Camp

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

You can facepalm it but the thread is specifically talking about the probability of Dak winning a title going on 31. Pretty self explanatory.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

Dak Haters are flailing....

This is the Day Trey Lance takes over team by performing better that Prescott is Training Camp

I don't think the Cowboys have a competent QB on the roster today.

 

[leeblair]

It's possible that, like Peyton Manning, Dak could get further if the team around him didn't need him to win.
Manning struggled when he faced good teams who knew his tendencies, but I will never forget Gary Kubiak running down the sidelines to call timeout when Manning audibled to a pass play. Kubiak kept Manning from sinking his own ship and leaned on the run game to win a Super Bowl.
Dak would have to be handled the same way.
But still, Manning could make plays when he had to. Dak isn't a playmaker unless it comes easy, and tends to freeze up under pressure.
There's a big difference.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

It's possible that, like Peyton Manning, Dak could get further if the team around him didn't need him to win.
Manning struggled when he faced good teams who knew his tendencies, but I will never forget Gary Kubiak running down the sidelines to call timeout when Manning audibled to a pass play. Kubiak kept Manning from sinking his own ship and leaned on the run game to win a Super Bowl.
Dak would have to be handled the same way.
But still, Manning could make plays when he had to. Dak isn't a playmaker unless it comes easy, and tends to freeze up under pressure.
There's a big difference.

And based on what you wrote, you can essentially do this with any average QB provided that the QB in question isn't the largest line item on your cap.