Dallas should explore Dak trade value

[Stash]

At least Jumbo laid out the advantage for signing him now, so you can understand Stash!

But that was a mighty long post he had for you to nitpick five words out of.

When it starts with stuff like "2018 Pro Bowl" and "team wins" as it's best case?

The rest of it isn't worth much after that.

It's noise.

 

[Flamma]

I like Dak. But I don't see an irreplacable QB. I don't even see a guy I want to sign to a 5 year contract in the mid 20mil per year. He might be that guy, but our staff ******** his growth and I don't see it yet.

I get your point, but at this particular moment he is irreplaceable. We're adding pieces for a run this upcoming season. We need a QB this season. If we go 7-9 or 8-8 then we can revisit this.

We have missed the boat on this one.

We should have traded Prescott for a king's ransom after the 2016 season - we could have then got Sam Darnold.

We missed the play offs in the 2017 season any way which was an utter disgrace given the strength of the roster.

Sam Darnold? To be honest, aside from Mayfield the rest of the QBs in that draft don't impress me at all.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

When it starts with stuff like "2018 Pro Bowl" and "team wins" as it's best case?

The rest of it isn't worth much after that.

It's noise.

You're missing out. It's good stuff that would make you more knowledgable.

Only noise since it doesnt fit the narrative, so resorting to nitpicking is the next move.

 

[percyhoward]

He leads a run-heavy offense that relies less on the passing game than many other NFL offenses. So as a GM, you have to project how well he would do in a pass-heavy scheme.

Not really, in the case of about half the teams in the league (and almost all the teams in the market for a QB). Almost half the teams in the NFL ran more than Dallas last year as their normal offense. Below is the percentage of plays from scrimmage that were runs in 2018. Overall, Dallas' run % ranked 9th, but that was because of teams ahead of them on these lists that were often taken out of their normal offense when they fell behind late in the game or fell behind by more than 8 points.

% of plays that were runs
Qtr 1-3
1 Sea 53.6
2 Buf 49.1
3 Ten 47.9
4 Bal 46.5
5 Hou 45.5
6 NYJ 44.7
7 Car 44.3
8 Jax 44.1
9 SF 43.5
10 Chi 43.4
11 Mia 43.1
12 Was 42.7
13 Ari 42.7
14 Dal 42.6

% of plays that were runs
Margin 8 points or less
1 Sea 52.6
2 Buf 51.2
3 Bal 49.9
4 Ten 49.8
5 Was 48.1
6 Jax 47.5
7 Hou 45.1
8 Ari 44.9
9 NYJ 44.5
10 Mia 44.3
11 Cle 43.9
12 Chi 43.5
13 SF 43.2
14 Det 43.0
15 NE 42.9
16 Dal 42.9

One of the biggest misconceptions going is that Dallas has a run-heavy offense. Those lists show how that isn't the case. It's better described as a balanced offense that's conservative for three quarters, then aggressive late in close games. Below are passes thrown at least 15 yards in the air in 2018.

15+yd targets by quarter (as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dal 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dal 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dal 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dal 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dal 25.7% NFL 20.0%

 

[Rockport]

After Stephan comments about Dak needing to sign team friendly deal and Dak on record as saying there will be no discount...an impasse is coming. Rather than get into issue of is Dak good or not, what could Cowboy get in trade if long term deal can't be agreed upon.


Note:
Denver received TWO 1st & 3rd for Jay Cutler
Cincy received 1st & 2nd for Carson Palmer
Eagles received 1st & 4th round pick for Sam Bradford.

If your Stephan, what would you need back in trade?

Note: this is not to get into large debate about if Dallas should or shouldn't do this but merely an exercise in what you think his current trade value is.

SMH just SMFH.

 

[Brax]

There is a fallacy in thinking the Cowboys would be better off by waiting to sign Dak until next year. DeMarcus Lawrence would have signed last year for 5 years, $85M and thought he got a good deal. This year, it cost the Cowboys a 5-year, $105M deal to get him signed. The Cowboys lost $20M by refusing to give him the deal last season.

If Dak is wililng to sign a 5 year extension for $28M per season now, then if he has another Pro Bowl season next year and wins in the playoffs again, his asking price will be in the $31-32M range. If he wins a Super Bowl, it is likely to be $35M per season (remember Joe Flacco?). So, the Cowboys have to choose between a $140M extension now, or a $160M extension later. Unlike Lawrence, who had only one good year before entering last season, Dak won Rookie of the Year in 2016, made the Pro Bowl in 2016 & 2018, and has led the team to 3 consecutive winning seasons, and a playoff win last year. He doesn't need a "Prove It" year to show consistency.

Given that Dak is scheduled to make $2M this season, let's take a look at how a $28M/season extension would impact the Cowboys - $140M with $75M guaranteed.

2019 - $37.025M cash paid - $2.025M Salary + $35M signing bonus
2020 - $25M cash paid - $1M Salary + $24M restructure bonus
2021 - $15M cash paid - $15M Salary
2022 - $18M cash paid - $18M Salary
2023 - $20M cash paid - $20M Salary
2024 - $27M cash paid - $27M Salary

Here are what the Salary CAP numbers look like over the same period with a 5-year, $140M extension, with $75M guaranteed:

2019 - CAP hit = $9,120,848 ($2,025,000 salary + $7,095,848 prorated bonuses) - DEAD Money = $75,095,848
2020 - CAP hit = $12.8M ($1M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $68M
2021 - CAP hit = $26.8M ($15M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $55.2M
2022 - CAP hit = $29.8M ($18M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $28.4M
2023 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($20M salary + 11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $16.6M
2024 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($27M salary + 4.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $4.8M

Note that the Cowboys get two more seasons of relatively low CAP hits at the QB position, then 1 year at $26.8M CAP hit; but, they are only actually paying Dak $15M in 2021 - much lower that what is likely to be the going rate of about $30-31M per season by then.

Also, starting in 2022, the DEAD Money CAP hit is actually less than the projected CAP hit, giving the Cowboys ways out of the contract in 2022 and 2023 if Dak's performance craters, and the Cowboys move on. So, CAP savings if Dak is cut or traded are:

• 2022 - $1.4M
• 2023 - $15.2M
• 2024 - $27M

The advantages to doing the deal now are 5-fold

1. Dak is happy because he gets paid, and isn't under the weight of having to perform and worry about his contract status
2. The Cowboys have a much more manageable situation for their salary CAP by being able to spread the signing bonus over 2019, in addition to 2020-2024
3. The Cowboys ultimately save money
4. The Cowboys get an earlier out on the contract if Dak's performance craters.
5. With Dak's contract done, the Cowboys can start working on extensions for Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones***

But they will be "stuck" with Dak for the next 3 seasons - something most fans and the front office are more than willing to risk.

That is a better deal than waiting for another season. If Dak remains consistent, which includes his inaccuracy and fumble issues, but also includes him leading the team to winning records, and winning playoff games, then you can expect his price tag next season to be in the $31-32M price range. Let's say they sign him next year to a 5-year $157.5M deal - averaging $31.5M per season. Even with signing bonuses, the CAP hits become much more problematic for the Cowboys. And if Dak happens to win a Super Bowl this coming season, his price likely goes to $35M per season. Even if Dak remains a mediocre QB, other mediocre QB's (like fellow 4th round pick Kirk Cousins) are getting $27M per season guaranteed contracts. That was last year. So $28M per season will soon be seen as a low starting salary for a top QB, and an average salary for an average QB.

*** Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones extensions are higher priority than Elliott and Jaylon Smith. Elliott can be retained by exercising his 5th year option, and Jaylon Smith is a restricted free agent next season, and Cowboys can tender him at a 1st round level to secure his services.

Why pay $75M , let him play $2M this season, tag him next $24M that is $13M averaged over 2 seasons. After 5 years everyone should know if he is a franchise QB, just looking at this board between believers and disbelievers indicate he hasn't shown that yet. Settling for average isn't what the Cowboys need to do, time will tell with Dak and paying him now is a mistake I would rather have that $49M at this point in time. As for Elliott he is the engine that is critical for this offense, take him away and we all know what happens, I believe Cooper, Smith and Elliott are more important to the team than Dak is at this point, 2 years down the road who knows how good or bad Dak will be.

 

[Rockport]

Why pay $75M , let him play $2M this season, tag him next $24M that is $13M averaged over 2 seasons. After 5 years everyone should know if he is a franchise QB, just looking at this board between believers and disbelievers indicate he hasn't shown that yet. Settling for average isn't what the Cowboys need to do, time will tell with Dak and paying him now is a mistake I would rather have that $49M at this point in time. As for Elliott he is the engine that is critical for this offense, take him away and we all know what happens, I believe Cooper, Smith and Elliott are more important to the team than Dak is at this point, 2 years down the road who knows how good or bad Dak will be.

The minute you wrote that you took the opinions of posters here you lost me. Permanently.

 

[Flamma]

If Dak is wililng to sign a 5 year extension for $28M per season now, then if he has another Pro Bowl season next year and wins in the playoffs again, his asking price will be in the $31-32M range. If he wins a Super Bowl, it is likely to be $35M per season (remember Joe Flacco?). So, the Cowboys have to choose between a $140M extension now, or a $160M extension later. Unlike Lawrence, who had only one good year before entering last season, Dak won Rookie of the Year in 2016, made the Pro Bowl in 2016 & 2018, and has led the team to 3 consecutive winning seasons, and a playoff win last year. He doesn't need a "Prove It" year to show consistency.

Lets assume your hypothetical is correct. Tell me what's worse. Having to pay Dak 160M extension instead of 140M, or go 8-8 having already paid him 28M per year? At least in your scenario we already know we're paying a good QB, especially if we win the SB. But if Dallas goes 7-9 to 9-7 with the current talent around him, we can kiss the years of his contract goodbye. I'd rather pay him for what I know he can do, not what I hope he can do. Right now he's not a 28M a year QB.

 

[RodeoJake]

In the spirit of the OP's question, nothing less than 3 firsts to start the conversation. That's what a team would get to move up to take a QB that's an unknown NFL quality. Dak is at least proven to be a winner with the ceiling to be a top 10 QB.

 

[HungryLion]

Well in Philly they called that the Process and it worked out well for them. The only thing is we have been in the process for a long time but I guess Philly’s is much better.

The process was for the 76ers. Not the eagles.

The Sixers haven’t won anything yet

 

[Stash]

You're missing out. It's good stuff that would make you more knowledgable.

Only noise since it doesnt fit the narrative, so resorting to nitpicking is the next move.

I'm glad that you think so.

It occurs to me that I'm "knowledgeable" enough to know that Prescott's 2018 Pro Bowl nod occurred not by merit, but by the fact that four other guys passed on it. That much I know. That's fact, not "nitpicking".

And when that and "team wins" are the basis for the rest of the argument? It all falls apart.

 

[Sydla]

You're missing out. It's good stuff that would make you more knowledgable.

Only noise since it doesnt fit the narrative, so resorting to nitpicking is the next move.

When one pushes “Pro Bowls” as one of Dak’s big accomplishments, that’s a narrative right there.

 

[Stash]

In the spirit of the OP's question, nothing less than 3 firsts to start the conversation. That's what a team would get to move up to take a QB that's an unknown NFL quality. Dak is at least proven to be a winner with the ceiling to be a top 10 QB.

Has any quarterback in NFL history garnered such a haul? I think the league has learned from the Herschel Walker deal, as well as Washington's mistake trading for RG III.

 

[Stash]

When one pushes “Pro Bowls” as one of Dak’s big accomplishments, that’s a narrative right there.

Yeah, but it's the "narrative" that he wants to hear so that makes it OK.

 

[RodeoJake]

Has any quarterback in NFL history garnered such a haul? I think the league has learned from the Herschel Walker deal, as well as Washington's mistake trading for RG III.

When has a young QB with Dak's track record been traded? I can't recall a single one.

 

[sunalsorises]

Dak's value is highest to the Cowboys. I think a QB starved team would sooner give up a haul of picks to draft a cheap QB high in the first round than give up a haul of picks for a QB who is set to make $25-30 million per year.

 

[Sydla]

Has any quarterback in NFL history garnered such a haul? I think the league has learned from the Herschel Walker deal, as well as Washington's mistake trading for RG III.

And any team trading for him has to then immediately sign him to a big contract. So it’s not just three first round picks, you also have to hand over a contract in excess of 100MM.

 

[Stash]

When has a young QB with Dak's track record been traded? I can't recall a single one.

That's true. In fact I remember hearing on the radio just yesterday how few of the starting quarterbacks in the league were actually not drafted by their current team. There may have been like five. Brees due to his shoulder (and Rivers), Garrapolo (due to Brady never retiring), and maybe two or three more (Flacco, Keenum, Foles)

But I have to ask exactly what Dak's "track record" truly is? Some peo;le are trying to use "Pro Bowls" and "team wins" as stats for him, and they don't hold much weight. And don't get me wrong, Dak has some good numbers, but I'm not sure that they're "$25 million a year" numbers.

 

[Stash]

And any team trading for him has to then immediately sign him to a big contract. So it’s not just three first round picks, you also have to hand over a contract in excess of 100MM.

Exactly right. And like our deal for Amari Cooper, the player and agent know that they've got the team right where they want them in negotiations. So they're asking for the moon.

 

[blueblood70]

There is a fallacy in thinking the Cowboys would be better off by waiting to sign Dak until next year. DeMarcus Lawrence would have signed last year for 5 years, $85M and thought he got a good deal. This year, it cost the Cowboys a 5-year, $105M deal to get him signed. The Cowboys lost $20M by refusing to give him the deal last season.

If Dak is wililng to sign a 5 year extension for $28M per season now, then if he has another Pro Bowl season next year and wins in the playoffs again, his asking price will be in the $31-32M range. If he wins a Super Bowl, it is likely to be $35M per season (remember Joe Flacco?). So, the Cowboys have to choose between a $140M extension now, or a $160M extension later. Unlike Lawrence, who had only one good year before entering last season, Dak won Rookie of the Year in 2016, made the Pro Bowl in 2016 & 2018, and has led the team to 3 consecutive winning seasons, and a playoff win last year. He doesn't need a "Prove It" year to show consistency.

Given that Dak is scheduled to make $2M this season, let's take a look at how a $28M/season extension would impact the Cowboys - $140M with $75M guaranteed.

2019 - $37.025M cash paid - $2.025M Salary + $35M signing bonus
2020 - $25M cash paid - $1M Salary + $24M restructure bonus
2021 - $15M cash paid - $15M Salary
2022 - $18M cash paid - $18M Salary
2023 - $20M cash paid - $20M Salary
2024 - $27M cash paid - $27M Salary

Here are what the Salary CAP numbers look like over the same period with a 5-year, $140M extension, with $75M guaranteed:

2019 - CAP hit = $9,120,848 ($2,025,000 salary + $7,095,848 prorated bonuses) - DEAD Money = $75,095,848
2020 - CAP hit = $12.8M ($1M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $68M
2021 - CAP hit = $26.8M ($15M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $55.2M
2022 - CAP hit = $29.8M ($18M salary + $11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $28.4M
2023 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($20M salary + 11.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $16.6M
2024 - CAP hit = $31.8M ($27M salary + 4.8M prorated bonuses) - DEAD money = $4.8M

Note that the Cowboys get two more seasons of relatively low CAP hits at the QB position, then 1 year at $26.8M CAP hit; but, they are only actually paying Dak $15M in 2021 - much lower that what is likely to be the going rate of about $30-31M per season by then.

Also, starting in 2022, the DEAD Money CAP hit is actually less than the projected CAP hit, giving the Cowboys ways out of the contract in 2022 and 2023 if Dak's performance craters, and the Cowboys move on. So, CAP savings if Dak is cut or traded are:

• 2022 - $1.4M
• 2023 - $15.2M
• 2024 - $27M

The advantages to doing the deal now are 5-fold

1. Dak is happy because he gets paid, and isn't under the weight of having to perform and worry about his contract status
2. The Cowboys have a much more manageable situation for their salary CAP by being able to spread the signing bonus over 2019, in addition to 2020-2024
3. The Cowboys ultimately save money
4. The Cowboys get an earlier out on the contract if Dak's performance craters.
5. With Dak's contract done, the Cowboys can start working on extensions for Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones***

But they will be "stuck" with Dak for the next 3 seasons - something most fans and the front office are more than willing to risk.

That is a better deal than waiting for another season. If Dak remains consistent, which includes his inaccuracy and fumble issues, but also includes him leading the team to winning records, and winning playoff games, then you can expect his price tag next season to be in the $31-32M price range. Let's say they sign him next year to a 5-year $157.5M deal - averaging $31.5M per season. Even with signing bonuses, the CAP hits become much more problematic for the Cowboys. And if Dak happens to win a Super Bowl this coming season, his price likely goes to $35M per season. Even if Dak remains a mediocre QB, other mediocre QB's (like fellow 4th round pick Kirk Cousins) are getting $27M per season guaranteed contracts. That was last year. So $28M per season will soon be seen as a low starting salary for a top QB, and an average salary for an average QB.

*** Amari Cooper, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones extensions are higher priority than Elliott and Jaylon Smith. Elliott can be retained by exercising his 5th year option, and Jaylon Smith is a restricted free agent next season, and Cowboys can tender him at a 1st round level to secure his services.

thats assuming some of these players accept the FT and decide to pull a BELL and hold out and not for 10 games but the entire season.. they saw Bell and Brown get out and go get their money..assuming can make a A** out of u and me lol just because the tags available and you think you can exercise options etc doesnt mean the layer just flat holds out..if Im Zeke I see money being thrown around I dont even come to work out in 2020 without big money..hes obviously the BMOC and you want to drag him out FT or exercise a 5th year option on a work horse taking the most hits, snaps, and produces 65% of the offense? id say he will give the big middle finger like bell did.

same with other..im not even worried about Smith and for sure Jones, Lewis is not really drop off there and hes not even on my radar to sign..

back to Dak I like him but he may fetch a low 1st and a 3rd is my guess, hes starter with winning record and isnt injured..his teammates like him etc etc..the issue I have is if he wants that elite money im out if I knew I can get a 1st and 3rd I take it and go after one of those big dogs in the 2020 QB pool..im not fan of paying dak over 25mil, period.. IMO only ELITE QBS should get above 25..hes at best a 10-15 rated QB as passer and thats not bad but that should never warrant a top 5 market type deal..
ths is about money vs production not trying to set the idiotic market..offer him 25 over 5 with aton guaranteed and if he says no , trade him