Dez Bryant rookie season

[blueblood70]

I never said Dez was just a RedZone threat and why exactly do I need to stop projecting? What I think has no bearing on anything of importance. It’s just talk in a forum.

As I said Dez’s rookie year was good but not through the roof. I think Ceedee can do better.

also a projection.. CD will have to fight for balls as I stated and I doubt he will be much better..my expectations barring injury is something like dez..dude hasn't played snap, even caught a ball from dak unfortunately , rumor say not even have heard from dak..:0)

 

[CowboyRoy]

CeeDee Lamb is coming into a similar situation as Bryant came into as rookie, that of being the the #3 WR. I wanted to take a look at Dez's production as a rookie as well as a comparison to his situation as opposed to Lambs.

In 12 games (2 starts), Dez had 45 catchs for 561 yards and 6 TDs. Calculated over 16 games he was on pace for 60 catches, 748 yards and 8 TD's.

2010 was a real show for Dallas. That was the year Wade was fired and Garrett took over. That was also Romo broke his collarbone.

Austin was the #1 WR that year and caught 69 passes. Down from 81 the year before.

Roy Williams was the #2 WR (lol). Bryant actually out produced him while playing 3 fewer games with 7 fewer starts.

Witten had one of his best statistical years that year with 94 catches and 9 TD's.

Overall as a team, we passed 576 times that season. 2019 we passed 597 times.

Overall, I think Bryant's rookie production is a good barometer of what to expect from Lamb this year. Austin/Cooper is probably a wash. Gallup is comically better than Williams. However I dont see Jarwin coming anywhere close to Wittens production.

Assuming he plays 16 games, I think 55-65 catchs amd 750-850 yards is a reasonable expectation for Lamb

I wouldn't call it similar. The 3 WR set will be the staple of our offense and Lamb should start all 16 games. But he is also bookended by 2 very good, well established WR's. Lamb is going to score TD's.

I would suspect he would be around 750 yards and 8 TD's.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Lamb is going to be a good player but there are too many guys in front of him. Barring injury Cooper, Gallup, Zeke, and Jarwin should all get more catches. I not a big Jarwin guy but TEs shine under McCarthy. I don’t see how the 5th option gets 60 catches. Plus rookie receivers are never big on stats. I would peg him at 50 tops. 650 yards. Maybe 4 TDs. Again, Lamb is going to be a good one but it will be hard to get looks with all these guys. Pollard could catch 30-40 passes.

Lamb will be a top 3 target. They are definitely not going to feature Zeke and Jarwin in the passing game more than Lamb. 70 dump offs to Zeke are mostly just outlet stuff.

 

[SlammedZero]

Austin was definitely fun to watch during his little flash-in-a-pan career. I remember watching the Chiefs game where he just blew up (which I believe is a Cowboys record for receiving yards in a single game). He started coming on so strong I went out and bought an Austin jersey. haha Injuries definitely held him back.

 

[Whyjerry]

Lamb will be a top 3 target. They are definitely not going to feature Zeke and Jarwin in the passing game more than Lamb. 70 dump offs to Zeke are mostly just outlet stuff.

Zeke had 54 catches last year. I expect him and Pollard to factor heavily in a new and improved screen game.

Drew Brees has the record for the most completions in a season. In fact he has the top 3 2016, 2011, and 2014. He had 471, 468, and 456 in those years, respectively. For context Dak had 388 last season. In those record years the pass catchers at or over 50 were:

2016 - 92, 78, 72, 58
2011 - 99, 86, 80, 52, 50
2014 - 85, 83, 59, 53

All of this is to say that you usually have 4 guys, maybe 5, grab 50 balls. You also have to factor in that Zeke and Pollard are definitely going to carry the ball 350-400 times. In McCarthy's last 5 years his TEs caught 74, 73, 60, 69 and 49 passes. Big Mike likes his TEs (no pun intended).

I would also argue strongly that Cooper and Gallup are the best 1-2 punch Big Mike has had in a long time.

In my humble opinion we can expect Cooper, Gallup, Jarwin and Zeke to get at least 50 catches. Cooper and Gallup should be 85 plus guys easily. Cobb grabbed 55 last year so it's hard for me to see a rookie getting that level of production. I think Pollard is going to grab 30 to 40 passes as well.

Lamb is going to be a good one, no doubt. I just see him taking time to work into the offense. I expect his production to come mostly in the second half. If the under / over was 50 - I would take the under.

 

[DanA]

Lamb will be a top 3 target. They are definitely not going to feature Zeke and Jarwin in the passing game more than Lamb. 70 dump offs to Zeke are mostly just outlet stuff.

I think the little dump offs to the running back are going to be a real threat this season. I think Ceedee and Jarwin will push coverage deeper and make more room for the easy dump off.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Zeke had 54 catches last year. I expect him and Pollard to factor heavily in a new and improved screen game.

Drew Brees has the record for the most completions in a season. In fact he has the top 3 2016, 2011, and 2014. He had 471, 468, and 456 in those years, respectively. For context Dak had 388 last season. In those record years the pass catchers at or over 50 were:

2016 - 92, 78, 72, 58
2011 - 99, 86, 80, 52, 50
2014 - 85, 83, 59, 53

All of this is to say that you usually have 4 guys, maybe 5, grab 50 balls. You also have to factor in that Zeke and Pollard are definitely going to carry the ball 350-400 times. In McCarthy's last 5 years his TEs caught 74, 73, 60, 69 and 49 passes. Big Mike likes his TEs (no pun intended).

I would also argue strongly that Cooper and Gallup are the best 1-2 punch Big Mike has had in a long time.

In my humble opinion we can expect Cooper, Gallup, Jarwin and Zeke to get at least 50 catches. Cooper and Gallup should be 85 plus guys easily. Cobb grabbed 55 last year so it's hard for me to see a rookie getting that level of production. I think Pollard is going to grab 30 to 40 passes as well.

Lamb is going to be a good one, no doubt. I just see him taking time to work into the offense. I expect his production to come mostly in the second half. If the under / over was 50 - I would take the under.

I think that's a good under/over. I take the over. I think he will be involved right from the start. Obviously more so in the 2nd half. I believe Lamb will be at least top 3 in yards and top 3 in TD catches. More than both Zeke and Jarwin. Catches I am not concerned about as much as yards and TD's.

Lamb had only 62 catches last year in college but still had over 1300 yards and 15 TD's.

 

[Whyjerry]

I think that's a good under/over. I take the over. I think he will be involved right from the start. Obviously more so in the 2nd half. I believe Lamb will be at least top 3 in yards and top 3 in TD catches. More than both Zeke and Jarwin. Catches I am not concerned about as much as yards and TD's.

Lamb had only 62 catches last year in college but still had over 1300 yards and 15 TD's.

I like the optimism. For me the move should have been Gallup and Lamb as 1-2 next year. The Cooper contract is a head scratcher. It should be a great group for this year.