Dink & Dunk Debunked -- Prescott and Average Depth of Completion

[SportsGuru80]

They will eventually "open up" the playbook more... I have a feeling tomorrow will be the start of that.

 

[Doomsay]

Dak has been very ineffective on long throws, hopefully it's just a sampling size issue and not a real physical limitation.

 

[NextGenBoys]

He still has only thrown the ball past 20 yards 9 times. He has only completed 1. Our big plays come from receivers and runners running with the ball. He is a very accurate thrower, reads the middle of the field well, and almost never checks it down. He still doesn't throw it down the field.

Now Wilson and Roethlisberger won championships with the dink and dunk. We don't have that level of defense though. I believe that Romo would look more like what Ryan is doing in Atlanta with Dez Bryant in the fold.

Even more so. Romo is a much better QB than Ryan.

 

[percyhoward]

Dak has been very ineffective on long throws, hopefully it's just a sampling size issue and not a real physical limitation.

2:11


1:19

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I was looking at inside the 20. The table in your link (which considers the Red Zone to be inside the 21) is inaccurate, as it has Dak with 11 completions instead of 13. Click "All Dak Prescott passing plays" on the right side of that table to see his 13 complete and 10 incomplete passes.

"Inside the 21" includes the 20-yard TD pass to T-dub in SF, so it's actually 7 TD 0 INT with a 53.5% completion rate. And we don't need to be alarmed about a completion rate that's about the same or better than Rodgers' 47.6% (9 TD 0 INT), Rivers' 46.7% (7 TD 0 INT), Carr's 54.6% (7 TD 0 INT), Palmer's 44.0% (5 TD 0 INT), and Wentz' s 50.0% (5 TD, 0 INT). This is a non-issue.

And I know 2/3 of our TD are by the rush, but you don't look at the last play of the drive to understand why it was successful. Through five games, a 3rd- or 4th-down pass play has extended 2/3 of our TD drives. When your QB ranks 8th in the NFL in passer rating on 1st and 2nd down and leads the league in 3rd- or 4th-down conversions, there something going on on those drives besides just running.

I count 11 completions. 2 sacks. 10 incompletions. It's still not good. Showing other QBS that struggled to this point doesn't change that. I can phrase it as "15% worse than Boykin, McCown, Cutler, and Taylor." Rodgers is widely regarded as having a bad year.

I have no idea where you get 7 TD. It's 3.

If he's not getting chunk plays and underperforming in the RZ -he's worse than 20th in the league- then it's the run game that is punching it in. I'm not saying that he doesn't get them down the field. I'm saying that without the running game we'd be kicking a lot more FG.

 

[erod]

This didn't disprove it. It reinforced it.

 

[stilltheguru88]

This didn't disprove it. It reinforced it.

What else did you get from the numbers?

 

[Clove]

Winning isn't enough.

 

[percyhoward]

I count 11 completions. 2 sacks. 10 incompletions.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/red-zone-passing-plays/2016

Showing other QBS that struggled to this point doesn't change that. I can phrase it as "15% worse than Boykin, McCown, Cutler, and Taylor." Rodgers is widely regarded as having a bad year.

For that matter, Prescott is widely regarded as having a good year, but we're specifically talking about the red zone. Any player deserves at least as much credit for a rushing TD as a passing TD. So counting lost fumbles, I'd take either Rodgers (47.6%, 7 pass TD, 2 TD on 3 rushes, 0 turnovers) or Prescott (53.5%, 4 pass TD, 3 TD on 3 rushes, 1 turnover) over Ryan (71.9%, 6 pass TD, 0 TD on 3 rushes, 1 turnover).

No way do I conclude Ryan (whose 6 shortest red zone completions combined for zero yards) must be the best red zone QB of the thee just because of completion rate, any more than I'd say that about the four guys you mentioned who have combined for 7 TD.

I'm not saying that he doesn't get them down the field. I'm saying that without the running game we'd be kicking a lot more FG.

If the running game gets shut down, I agree that the Romo of 2014 would be the better option than the Prescott of 2016 so far. I would not have wanted to go into that 2014 divisional playoff game against the Lions defense with an unproven QB.

We may or may not see how much that affects the reality of 2016.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/red-zone-passing-plays/2016

For that matter, Prescott is widely regarded as having a good year, but we're specifically talking about the red zone. Any player deserves at least as much credit for a rushing TD as a passing TD. So counting lost fumbles, I'd take either Rodgers (47.6%, 7 pass TD, 2 TD on 3 rushes, 0 turnovers) or Prescott (53.5%, 4 pass TD, 3 TD on 3 rushes, 1 turnover) over Ryan (71.9%, 6 pass TD, 0 TD on 3 rushes, 1 turnover).

No way do I conclude Ryan (whose 6 shortest red zone completions combined for zero yards) must be the best red zone QB of the thee just because of completion rate, any more than I'd say that about the four guys you mentioned who have combined for 7 TD.

If the running game gets shut down, I agree that the Romo of 2014 would be the better option than the Prescott of 2016 so far. I would not have wanted to go into that 2014 divisional playoff game against the Lions defense with an unproven QB.

We may or may not see how much that affects the reality of 2016.

That is still not a good %.

I agree that a rushing TD is as valuable as a passing one. OTOH, relying on your QB to run is a recipe for disaster and it's the running attack which I'm concerned about defenses taking away schematically. It's simply not sustainable and can only be used judiciously.

I've always conceded that Daks running ability is a strength as it is. My point is that you have to weigh that against Romo's ability in the RZ and with the deep ball.

Going forward I don't know that I would take anyone over Dak however to this point in the year no one has been slinging the rock better than Ryan. His YPA is a staggering 10.4 and he leads the league in big plays and passing TD.

Overall I think we are in accord. Healthy Romo is a better passer than Dak is right now. Whether he is healthy is the issue.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Average depth of completion is a weird metric.

 

[CCBoy]

Right. Dallas with Prescott doesn't rely on the short passing game. "Dink and dunk" offenses -- those with an emphasis on the short passing game -- are represented by the QB at the bottom of the list. (Stafford, Wentz, Smith, and Bortles.) Stafford and Wentz both have top 10 offenses, Bortles' is average, and Smith's is bottom 10.

So Percy, good stuff of course, but does Prescott carry the team against the Pack if they stop the run early?

 

[Sarge]

Surprised to see Flacco under "dink and dunk" tbh.

 

[DandyDon52]

So Percy, good stuff of course, but does Prescott carry the team against the Pack if they stop the run early?

first they have to stop the run, then we will see what happens.
Today is a big test for dak and linehan.
I am sure they know gb defense is # 1 in the run, so they should have a plan for if they do stop the run.

One thing is dak might take off and run more himself.
On one of the shows i watched, this one guy said with dak as a running QB they can put 8 in the box, but it is really only 6
because 2 have to contain the ends or 1 on qb and 1 on end.
And that is 6 on our 6 with a TE blocking, so kinda hard to stop with dak in there.
He helps open up the run with RB just by being a legitimate run threat himself.

 

[noshame]

As always thanks for your work Percy

One of the things that amazes me about Dak is the way he throws those intermediate passes.
if he has to go over the linebacker he puts just enough on the pass to clear the linebacker yet drop in for a soft catch, it's truly an art that 90% of quarterbacks don't do.
that's why with most quarterbacks you see that particular pass high, sometimes tipped by the receiver and ends up being picked.

One of the reasons Dak hasn't thrown a interception overlooked by most.

 

[JohnsKey19]

Still not sure we are scoring enough. I think we do need to add in more 20+ completions. I don't know how many more we need per game though.

Getting Dez back healthy would help. He adds the big play ability whether it's a deep shot or a quick slant, broken tackle and off to the races. I'm actually surprised they have dialed up something for Butler deep.

 

[stilltheguru88]

That is still not a good %.

I agree that a rushing TD is as valuable as a passing one. OTOH, relying on your QB to run is a recipe for disaster and it's the running attack which I'm concerned about defenses taking away schematically. It's simply not sustainable and can only be used judiciously.

I've always conceded that Daks running ability is a strength as it is. My point is that you have to weigh that against Romo's ability in the RZ and with the deep ball.

Going forward I don't know that I would take anyone over Dak however to this point in the year no one has been slinging the rock better than Ryan. His YPA is a staggering 10.4 and he leads the league in big plays and passing TD.

Overall I think we are in accord. Healthy Romo is a better passer than Dak is right now. Whether he is healthy is the issue.

Russell Wilson has been fine running and Dak has a bigger frame and is just as smart as far as taking big hits.

 

[CCBoy]

first they have to stop the run, then we will see what happens.
Today is a big test for dak and linehan.
I am sure they know gb defense is # 1 in the run, so they should have a plan for if they do stop the run.

One thing is dak might take off and run more himself.
On one of the shows i watched, this one guy said with dak as a running QB they can put 8 in the box, but it is really only 6
because 2 have to contain the ends or 1 on qb and 1 on end.
And that is 6 on our 6 with a TE blocking, so kinda hard to stop with dak in there.
He helps open up the run with RB just by being a legitimate run threat himself.

My guess, if Green Bay doesn't blitz a lot, and on runs...the play action and screens will damage them hard on the outside.

 

[Toro9]

Colin Cowherd where would hate this thread.

 

[DandyDon52]

My guess, if Green Bay doesn't blitz a lot, and on runs...the play action and screens will damage them hard on the outside.

Well I hope dallas coaches have a good gameplan, it isnt like GB can just magically stop our run , they dont know what all we will do.
And screens and passes to ee, would be good.