Dink & Dunk Debunked -- Prescott and Average Depth of Completion

[Gameover]

The 49ers game has people thinking Dak is all dink n' dunk. He's not.

I saw the Tampa QB miss quite a few of the passes that Dak completed vs the 49ers. So dinking and dunking isn't as easy as Dak made it look.

That sideline pass to Dunbar at the end of the half, that might be his best pass to date.

 

[marchetta]

Reminds me of the NE offense. I dont mind winning boring.

Exactly! A precision, low risk, high percentage passing game, with a QB that makes good decisions, and is cool under pressure. Sounds like the NE winning formula to me.

 

[Gameover]

The offense is off about 3 ppg as compared to 2014.

The loss of Dez has had an affect, but also the offense averages less drives per game than in 2014 (someone had posted those numbers) and if you figured it on a points-per-drive, the two seasons were pretty comparable.

They scored two defensive TD in 2014(first 5. maybe more.and probably had more turnovers thru 5)
Titans
Rams
That helps the 2014 teams average.

 

[JW82]

Since week one he is averaging 9.2 YPA which would only be behind Ryan and Brady also for everyone pining for all that passing Romo did in 2014. Dak is averaging 247 yards per game. Romo in 2014, 247 yards per game. For those pining for all those TDs we're missing out on,
Through 5 games in 2014 Romo 9td passes and 5 interceptions. Dak 4 passing and 3 rushing and zero interceptions. I'll take Daks first 5 games.

 

[Gameover]

To my genius eye: This team is performing at a higher level than 2014. But this team is more talented and experienced.

And I believe they would be performing at the same level with Romo. No Romo diss here.

 

[robjay04]

The running game is 11 of 15 TDs. Dak's completion percentage in the red zone goes in the toilet dropping ~30%.

If we cannot run the ball we are going to have trouble scoring.

Just saying we are going to get better. I see him improving that aspect of his game every week. No rookie is going to come in and be great in the redzone, what you look for is progression.

By the way, a couple of those rushing touchdowns were set up by passes that got the offense within the five yard line.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

To my genius eye: This team is performing at a higher level than 2014. But this team is more talented and experienced.

And I believe they would be performing at the same level with Romo. No Romo diss here.

You know I was thinking the same thing.

That's not a Romo-besmirch either.

 

[JBS]

Hmm..but this offense would be so much more dynamic w Romo



Not

 

[stilltheguru88]

Hmm..but this offense would be so much more dynamic w Romo



Not

I'd rather the style we play now than all the high flying Dez stuff.

 

[percyhoward]

Dak is very good at ball control offense but his RZ completion percentage is well below average and because of that and the lack of the long ball we rely on the running game to score.

I think the OL and RB are better this year than 2014. It's also scoring over 2/3 of our scores.

If we cannot run the ball then we are going to settle for a lot more FG and that yards per drive is going to diminish. I can see a DC like Capers exploiting our tendencies and making life difficult for the offense.

I'm not sure that our lack of 20+ yard completions means that "we rely on the running game to score" though. When we convert on a 3rd-down pass, our average to-go distance is 6.13 yards, which is in the middle of the league (16th), so our running game hasn't especially helped us convert by the pass. And those conversions extend drives that eventually end in touchdowns. Of our 15 TD so far, 10 were scored on drives that were kept alive by a 3rd- or 4th-down pass.

And we lead the league in conversion percentage on 3rd- or 4th-down passes. (If Dak had Andy Dalton's conversion rate, for example, our offense with its improved OL and RB would have 5 fewer touchdowns.) Of course we may be leading the league in conversions with Romo as well, but that's no less speculative than whether Dak can maintain his current pace.

And I don't think Prescott's 52% red zone completion percentage is even noteworthy. Rodgers, Rivers, Palmer, Carr, and Wentz average 7 TD (rushing or passing) 0 INT and range from 47.6 to 54.5% completions in the red zone. Dak has 6 TD (rushing or passing) 0 INT in the red zone.

Where I do agree is on your last point. We know the 2014 Romo was outstanding against great defenses. If he comes back and can be that guy again, he's the best option, and gives us the best chance in the postseason. Also things that remain to be seen.

 

[percyhoward]

So 2014 OL =2016 OL
Zeke > Murray
Romo ? Dak
2016 D > 2014 D

I'd change that last one to a "?"

 

[jobberone]

Did we score as much during the first five games?

The offense is looking more efficient and seemingly scoring more at will every game. Can't really compare 5 games to a whole season. If the numbers were the same but Romo was the QB, nobody would say "well we were better in 2014 when we threw the ball deeper".

Personally, I don't think the deep ball matters at all as long we are scoring points.

It at least expands the offense and causes the defense to play more balanced. That should over a season create some points.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm not sure that our lack of 20+ yard completions means that "we rely on the running game to score" though. When we convert on a 3rd-down pass, our average to-go distance is 6.13 yards, which is in the middle of the league (16th), so our running game hasn't especially helped us convert by the pass. And those conversions extend drives that eventually end in touchdowns. Our of 15 TD so far, 10 were scored on drives that were kept alive by a 3rd- or 4th-down pass.

And we lead the league in conversion percentage on 3rd- or 4th-down passes. (If Dak had Andy Dalton's conversion rate, for example, our offense with its improved OL and RB would have 5 fewer touchdowns.) Of course we may be leading the league in conversions with Romo as well, but that's no less speculative than whether Dak can maintain his current pace.

And I don't think Prescott's 52% red zone completion percentage is even noteworthy. Rodgers, Rivers, Palmer, Carr, and Wentz average 7 TD (rushing or passing) 0 INT and range from 47.6 to 54.5% completions in the red zone. Dak has 6 TD (rushing or passing) 0 INT in the red zone.

Where I do agree is on your last point. We know the 2014 Romo was outstanding against great defenses. If he comes back and can be that guy again, he's the best option, and gives us the best chance in the postseason. Also things that remain to be seen.

2/3 of our scores are on the rush. His 48% completion percentage is not good. Top QBs like Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Wilson, Ryan, and Luck are all 12% better or higher.

To his credit he doesn't turn it over but that doesn't get paydirt. In 2014, the running game diminished and Romo took up more of the load particularly after Murray got hurt. I'm not saying Dak cannot but that too will remain to be seen.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/dal

He has 9 attempts past 20 yards. I've only compared it to Romo and Brady who pass it downfield similarly.

Atlanta has done it twice as much and completes 40% more.
Pitt has done it over three times as much and around 40% better in completion percentage again.
Seachickens one less than twice as much and about 50% better comp%.

I'm not going through them all but he doesn't measure up to the top offenses in regards to the deep ball.

Seems like it's a bit of a skewed stat since they were mostly from one game and it was also his first. They've obviously made an adjustment there and the results are pretty spectacular. Not sure if it's coincidental or forced though.

 

[Sepia]

Just saying we are going to get better. I see him improving that aspect of his game every week. No rookie is going to come in and be great in the redzone, what you look for is progression.

By the way, a couple of those rushing touchdowns were set up by passes that got the offense within the five yard line.

Also, there were a few dropped passes in the Red Zone. Dez had one or two week one, Brice dropped one, and one of Brice's was called back last week due to a penalty.

 

[DandyDon52]

Reminds me of the NE offense. I dont mind winning boring.

Boring wins sounds better ??
and truth is all the games have been exciting, so exciting (and not boring) and pleasing wins.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Seems like it's a bit of a skewed stat since they were mostly from one game and it was also his first. They've obviously made an adjustment there and the results are pretty spectacular. Not sure if it's coincidental or forced though.

They would adjust to not throw the deep ball because its a weakness. That may be the reason but that is not a good thing either.

 

[jobberone]

Still not sure we are scoring enough. I think we do need to add in more 20+ completions. I don't know how many more we need per game though.

 

[percyhoward]

2/3 of our scores are on the rush. His 48% completion percentage is not good. Top QBs like Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Wilson, Ryan, and Luck are all 12% better or higher.

To his credit he doesn't turn it over but that doesn't get paydirt. In 2014, the running game diminished and Romo took up more of the load particularly after Murray got hurt. I'm not saying Dak cannot but that too will remain to be seen.

I was looking at inside the 20. The table in your link (which considers the Red Zone to be inside the 21) is inaccurate, as it has Dak with 11 completions instead of 13. Click "All Dak Prescott passing plays" on the right side of that table to see his 13 complete and 10 incomplete passes.

"Inside the 21" includes the 20-yard TD pass to T-dub in SF, so it's actually 7 TD 0 INT with a 53.5% completion rate. And we don't need to be alarmed about a completion rate that's about the same or better than Rodgers' 47.6% (9 TD 0 INT), Rivers' 46.7% (7 TD 0 INT), Carr's 54.6% (7 TD 0 INT), Palmer's 44.0% (5 TD 0 INT), and Wentz' s 50.0% (5 TD, 0 INT). This is a non-issue.

And I know 2/3 of our TD are by the rush, but you don't look at the last play of the drive to understand why the drive was successful. Through five games, a 3rd- or 4th-down pass play has extended 2/3 of our TD drives. When your QB ranks 8th in the NFL in passer rating on 1st and 2nd down and leads the league in 3rd- or 4th-down conversion rate, there something going on on those drives besides just running.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Also, there were a few dropped passes in the Red Zone. Dez had one or two week one, Brice dropped one, and one of Brice's was called back last week due to a penalty.

Dak is not the only QB who has passes dropped.