Division hopes on the line Sunday

[Idgit]

Then why make the comment about people rushing to declare the season over? He didn't say if we lose the season is over. We could still make the WC if we don't win the division.

You're right that I used short-hand there that wasn't accurate.

It was a more general comment about progressing the season faster than people ought to. The raced to declare the division winner, the wildcards, the playoffs, the eventual Superbowl champ. Sometimes it plays out just like it looks it's going to. Sometimes you get a Crazy Ivan and the division leaders or WC contenders reverse.

 

[Idgit]

If we lost both games to the Skins that would give us 5 losses. Even if we swept the Eagles, that would only be 3 losses for the Eagles.

We would be two games behind and that's assuming we win all our remaining games. We would then need two other teams to beat Philly.

I mean if people want to toe the line of impossible and say anything is possible, sure. But in reality, there isn't a frog's chance in hell this team can win the division if they lose to the Skins twice.

Why is it you think there's not a frog's chance in hell PHI will drop two random games outside of the DAL games with 9 to play?

 

[viman96]

1-1? 0-3?

We’ll either be 1-1 or 2-0

No 0-3, Vi

my comment is based on that this game means more for the skins than it does for the boys.

skins lose they are 0-3.
boys lose they are 1-1.

 

[CowboyGil]

might be a must win for the division, but for the season not so much. The NFC is pretty wide open.

 

[DiResta]

dont know about winning the division
but it definitely helps for it or a wc if nothing else


it matters also because Skins are a decent but injured team and if Dallas is truly hitting stride on offense then it should show Sunday

 

[cowboyblue22]

Then why make the comment about people rushing to declare the season over? He didn't say if we lose the season is over. We could still make the WC if we don't win the division.

the season is not over if we lose to the skins but division playoff hopes are getting really dim if we keep losing there will be no post-season play if you want to contend and are a contender you have to start winning games at some point in the regular season but if I you don't make the post season and win there then your season is pretty much a failure

 

[CapnCook]

I don't think this game is a "must-win" game at all. It's a very important game and winning would definitely help, but it won't be a dagger in the heart if they lose.

First, if they lose, they will be 3 games out of first, not 4. They play the Eagles twice so if they win both of those games, they would be only one game behind them while holding the first tie-breaker over them.

Second, if they lose, they would be 3-4 and which means the possibility (not saying it would happen) of being 12-4 would still be there for them and there's no way a 12-4 team is not making the playoffs at least as a wild card.

Third, this game is at Washington. If it was at Dallas, I would consider it closer to, though still not, a must-win game. However, since it is in Washington, this is an away game that even if they were 6-0 right now would be a potential loss given how well NFC East teams play each other.

Fourth, the Cowboys are 1-0 in the division, so losing this game would mean they are 1-1, which would still give them the tie-breaker advantage, at least for now, over the Commanders and Giants for the division (and wildcard) tie-breaker, as with a loss, the Commanders would be 1-2 and the Giants are 0-2.

 

[Beats_By_Zeke]

Real question here is. Can The niners upset the eagles?

 

[Idgit]

Real question here is. Can The niners upset the eagles?

I can't see it. If it were a trap game, maybe. But the closest thing they have to a trap game coming up is the DEN game next week (prior to playing Dallas). If that were in DEN, it might be a candidate, but it's in PHI.

They do have a decently-tough stretch to end the season with @DAL, (CHI), @SEA, @LAR, @NYFG, OAK and then DAL again. All of those games are winnable for them, but there could be a couple losses sprinkled in, too.

 

[Sydla]

Why is it you think there's not a frog's chance in hell PHI will drop two random games outside of the DAL games with 9 to play?

It's more than the Eagles just dropping 2 games beyond our two games. It's the notion that while they have to go 5-4 over the remaining schedule and we'll go 8-2 or better (and that's assuming we sweep the Eagles). The odds of that are pretty low.

We cannot lose two games to Washington if you want a real shot at the division. That was my point. At the very least, splitting with Washington keeps up a slim hope that we might be able to win the division splitting with Philly too if Philly implodes. But lose to Washington twice? You've then put yourself in a tight spot where you no longer control anything and would not only need the Eagles to collapse a bit, you'd need to play out your butt and go a blistering 8-2 or better AND on top of that, have to sweep Philly.

I get it. You are an eternal optimist that doesn't think anything is impossible or unlikely until it's actually over. I am just looking at this realistically. If the Cowboys lose twice to the Skins, as was suggested wouldn't be completely terrible, what needs to happen then to win the division is really unlikely and has a very low probability of happening. To me, that's basically a frog's chance in hell if you are looking at like a 10% chance of winning the division at that point.

 

[Sydla]

Real question here is. Can The niners upset the eagles?

Yes.

If it rains so ********* hard that the field is a mess and the wind is whipping around and Wentz is having trouble throwing and the Eagles turn the ball over 6 times.

Sure. Then the 49ers can upset the Eagles.

 

[Idgit]

...I get it. You are an eternal optimist that doesn't think anything is impossible or unlikely until it's actually over. I am just looking at this realistically. If the Cowboys lose twice to the Skins, as was suggested wouldn't be completely terrible, what needs to happen then to win the division is really unlikely and has a very low probability of happening. To me, that's basically a frog's chance in hell if you are looking at like a 10% chance of winning the division at that point.

You don't get it. It's really got nothing to do with DAL at all, and everything to do with the number of games left to play. I just know that 10 games is a lifetime in an NFL season.

I wouldn't expect a 3-4 team to catch fire and finish 12-4 or 11-5, but I understand that it can happen.

I wouldn't expect a 6-1 team to fall flat short of losing a couple of key players, but then I know teams lose key players all the time. They've also been known to fall flat after a hot start even without losing key players as the weather changes or their schedule tightens up.

My issue hasn't ever been that I expect DAL to necessarily catch PHI. To be honest, I don't care all that much how we get into the playoffs if we get into the playoffs, because we've got a team that travels well. I care a lot more about the quality of the QBs we draw in any tournament than I do about our limited home field advantage.

I just don't understand why people want to race to declare things over when they clearly aren't over, won't be over until we get to the point of the season where such things actually do become pretty clear-cut, and when we've seen over and over and over across all the divisions in the league that there are always surprises and always teams caught at the end of the year that looked to have been in good position on October. I'm not an optimist; I'm a realist.

 

[Sydla]

You don't get it. It's really got nothing to do with DAL at all, and everything to do with the number of games left to play. I just know that 10 games is a lifetime in an NFL season.

I wouldn't expect a 3-4 team to catch fire and finish 12-4 or 11-5, but I understand that it can happen.

I wouldn't expect a 6-1 team to fall flat short of losing a couple of key players, but then I know teams lose key players all the time. They've also been known to fall flat after a hot start even without losing key players as the weather changes or their schedule tightens up.

My issue hasn't ever been that I expect DAL to necessarily catch PHI. To be honest, I don't care all that much how we get into the playoffs if we get into the playoffs, because we've got a team that travels well. I care a lot more about the quality of the QBs we draw in any tournament than I do about our limited home field advantage.

I just don't understand why people want to race to declare things over when they clearly aren't over, won't be over until we get to the point of the season where such things actually do become pretty clear-cut, and when we've seen over and over and over across all the divisions in the league that there are always surprises and always teams caught at the end of the year that looked to have been in good position on October. I'm not an optimist; I'm a realist.

I get it. But just looking at the number of games and saying if they go this and we go that, we win. It ignores things that are quite important here - such as remaining SOS and the likelihood that the Eagles will go 4-5 or 5-4 or 3-6 if that's what you need them to go to make your scenario work.

But if that's how you want to do it, go ahead.

It's very simple. If the Cowboys lose both games to Washington, their chances of winning the division are very low. Now if you want to pull a Lloyd Christmas, have at it.

 

[Fletch]

I can't see it. If it were a trap game, maybe. But the closest thing they have to a trap game coming up is the DEN game next week (prior to playing Dallas). If that were in DEN, it might be a candidate, but it's in PHI.

They do have a decently-tough stretch to end the season with @DAL, (CHI), @SEA, @LAR, @NYFG, OAK and then DAL again. All of those games are winnable for them, but there could be a couple losses sprinkled in, too.

There will be. Bank on it!

 

[Idgit]

I get it. But just looking at the number of games and saying if they go this and we go that, we win. It ignores things that are quite important here - such as remaining SOS and the likelihood that the Eagles will go 4-5 or 5-4 or 3-6 if that's what you need them to go to make your scenario work.

But if that's how you want to do it, go ahead.

It's very simple. If the Cowboys lose both games to Washington, their chances of winning the division are very low. Now if you want to pull a Lloyd Christmas, have at it.

I don't have a scenario. I'm definitely not suggesting in any way that PHI winning the East with a 2.5 game lead and 10 to play isn't an obvious possibility.

I'm saying there are too many variables to conclude that any scenario is a foregone conclusion.

We had this same conversation in a thread last week, before the Eagles lost Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks. That happened in one game. They've got 9 more of them to go. That's a long time.

SOS changes, too, as the season goes along. Because each of those teams also has 9-10 games to play and a lot can change over those 2 and a half months.

And for the record, I didn't suggest the Cowboys would likely win the East after getting swept by WAS. I only asked why you seemed to think it was impossible when it clearly isn't as long as the division W/L records are still so up in the air.

 

[Idgit]

There will be. Bank on it!

I am. Eagles look really good. They look like a ~12-4 team, if everything stays on the same footing it's been on. It'll be tough to catch them if we don't go on another incredible run here. But I also don't think the back half of the season is going to look like the front half when it's all said and done.

 

[Verdict]

I'm with you. I know what the math says, but I also know what not being able to put even two wins a row together says as well.

If they can't beat Washington, I don't give them much chance of beating the team that's already beaten Washington not once, but twice.

I get that the Eagles have a much better record than the Commanders and on paper that indicates that they are a much better team than the Commanders. I am not sure that means that the Commanders are an easier match up for us than the Eagles.

I don't think the Eagles are nearly as good as their record indicates. I am not sure that the Commanders are as bad as their record says they are. The Eagles may be a more favorable matchup for us than the Commanders.

Wentz is a good (not great) young QB, but is more prone to making unforced errors than Cousins. Cousins is also a bit Jekyl and Hyde. If you get the good version of Cousins they will be hard to beat with that receiving corps. If you get the bad version of Cousins the Refskins are easily beatable.

Wentz is less Jekyl and Hyde. He has a lower current ceiling than Cousins and a slightly higher floor. Wentz isn't going to pull out miraculous feats. Pressure is going to bother Wentz a bit more than Cousins as a general rule.

I like the fact that Washington's OL is a bit banged up. That helps the margin for error a little bit. If our DL can get a little pressure on Cousins it should help us out a little.

If you asked me which team we have a better chance of sweeping (Eagles or Commanders) right now I would say the Eagles. They will regress towards the mean because they are not a 15 and 1 quality of team.

 

[Verdict]

I don't have a scenario. I'm definitely not suggesting in any way that PHI winning the East with a 2.5 game lead and 10 to play isn't an obvious possibility.

I'm saying there are too many variables to conclude that any scenario is a foregone conclusion.

We had this same conversation in a thread last week, before the Eagles lost Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks. That happened in one game. They've got 9 more of them to go. That's a long time.

SOS changes, too, as the season goes along. Because each of those teams also has 9-10 games to play and a lot can change over those 2 and a half months.

And for the record, I didn't suggest the Cowboys would likely win the East after getting swept by WAS. I only asked why you seemed to think it was impossible when it clearly isn't as long as the division W/L records are still so up in the air.

Well said.

 

[Verdict]

I am. Eagles look really good. They look like a ~12-4 team, if everything stays on the same footing it's been on. It'll be tough to catch them if we don't go on another incredible run here. But I also don't think the back half of the season is going to look like the front half when it's all said and done.

The Eagles may get to 12 and 4 because of the early win loss record by they sure don't look like a 12 and 4 team to me. They look like a 9 and 7 team that has been very fortunate.

 

[Verdict]

If Philly beats San Fran and Dallas loses.....

Eagles 7-1
Cowboys 3-4

That's four games back in the win column.

Yes it is. But his point is still a valid point.