Division hopes on the line Sunday

[Sydla]

I don't have a scenario. I'm definitely not suggesting in any way that PHI winning the East with a 2.5 game lead and 10 to play isn't an obvious possibility.

I'm saying there are too many variables to conclude that any scenario is a foregone conclusion.

We had this same conversation in a thread last week, before the Eagles lost Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks. That happened in one game. They've got 9 more of them to go. That's a long time.

SOS changes, too, as the season goes along. Because each of those teams also has 9-10 games to play and a lot can change over those 2 and a half months.

And for the record, I didn't suggest the Cowboys would likely win the East after getting swept by WAS. I only asked why you seemed to think it was impossible when it clearly isn't as long as the division W/L records are still so up in the air.

Right now, there are more variables available.

But the point of the post you are responding to is one where one of the variables change - we get swept by Washington. If that happens, it makes the chances of winning the division much worse than they are right now.

If we get swept by Washington, yes, it's pretty damn unlikely we can win the division.

 

[Verdict]

I know, El Presidente, but we can’t go 3-4 with a one loss Eagles team, and an NFC that is begging us to snag a WC spot — with Rodgers out, Cam regressing, Ryan regressing, the Vikings without their starting QB, and a somewhat inconsistent SEA team.

We need this win. IMO, this is about as “must win” as it gets this early in a season.

4-3 ensures we control our destiny (as Syd pointed out), and gets us 2-0 in the division (probably at least as important as the overall record).

Idg, I don’t want to see us 3-4 and 1-1 in the NFCE. Would be horrible.

Statistically it's not a must win but it is a very important win for a multitude of reasons.

 

[Verdict]

It’s hard to add anything after @Reality’s reply but clearly it’s an important game but not a must-win.

Right now we’re 2.5 games behind the Eagles and we have two games left against them. Though it would be detrimental, we could even lose both games to the Skins, as long as we beat the Eagles twice and handle the rest of our schedule, the NFC East title is totally within reach.

That's very true. It's not outside the realm of possibility. But our margin for error shrinks with each additional loss.

 

[Verdict]

Why is it you think there's not a frog's chance in hell PHI will drop two random games outside of the DAL games with 9 to play?

It's actually not only possible, it's actually statistically speaking pretty likely.

 

[Idgit]

The Eagles may get to 12 and 4 because of the early win loss record by they sure don't look like a 12 and 4 team to me. They look like a 9 and 7 team that has been very fortunate.

I was saying the same thing, but the last two weeks they impressed me. I'm curious to see how well we manage to defend the Chiefs here coming up. That'll give us a sense of whether or not we're likely to be able to control the flow of the two PHI games.

They've got a fairly complete team, but their CBs are susceptible and losing the MIKE hurts. Kendricks probably gets the nod there when his hammy is ready, but he's a streaky player with injury issues. They got a bag of ***** behind that if he gets hurt again or cools off.

 

[Verdict]

The Eagles could very easily **** the bed and give the Niners their first win of the year. Niners got embarrassed by the Cowboys and some level of pride will start to kick in at some point.

 

[Verdict]

I was saying the same thing, but the last two weeks they impressed me. I'm curious to see how well we manage to defend the Chiefs here coming up. That'll give us a sense of whether or not we're likely to be able to control the flow of the two PHI games.

They've got a fairly complete team, but their CBs are susceptible and losing the MIKE hurts. Kendricks probably gets the nod there when his hammy is ready, but he's a streaky player with injury issues. They got a bag of ***** behind that if he gets hurt again or cools off.

Kansas City is a better team than Philly. I'm not afraid of Kansas City. We match up with them pretty well.

The oddball teams like the Commanders are harder to predict.

 

[Idgit]

Right now, there are more variables available.

But the point of the post you are responding to is one where one of the variables change - we get swept by Washington. If that happens, it makes the chances of winning the division much worse than they are right now.

If we get swept by Washington, yes, it's pretty damn unlikely we can win the division.

Even swept by WAS, 4-2 in the division, the head-to-head tiebreaker over the current division leader, and 11-5 overall is still on the table. That's enough to win a division.

Or are you assuming 'swept by WAS' means we're bad enough that other losses will necessarily happen as well? That's not an unreasonable assumption, but it goes beyond the hypothetical here.

 

[Verdict]

I was saying the same thing, but the last two weeks they impressed me. I'm curious to see how well we manage to defend the Chiefs here coming up. That'll give us a sense of whether or not we're likely to be able to control the flow of the two PHI games.

They've got a fairly complete team, but their CBs are susceptible and losing the MIKE hurts. Kendricks probably gets the nod there when his hammy is ready, but he's a streaky player with injury issues. They got a bag of ***** behind that if he gets hurt again or cools off.

I do agree that the feel and makeup of KC and Philly seems similar. I think Philly is a rung below KC though.

 

[Sydla]

It's actually not only possible, it's actually statistically speaking pretty likely.

There's a component you are missing here..........If the Skins sweep us, and we sweep Philly, we would still need Philly to lose two more games AND we'd have to sweep our remaining 6 games. How likely is that?

 

[Idgit]

Kansas City is a better team than Philly. I'm not afraid of Kansas City. We match up with them pretty well.

The oddball teams like the Commanders are harder to predict.

The damn Skins always manage to give us fits.

KC's a damn good team. Smith is outplaying Wentz as far as I'm concerned, and they've got multiple other playmakers on offense. Defensively, though, they're not as good. That PHI front is so damn tough, and those teams that have really good S play and a dominating down line that always give us trouble. With Hicks out, though, that opens things up for us underneath. Tougher to cover up holes at both CB and LB. As we know.

 

[Verdict]

There's a component you are missing here..........If the Skins sweep us, and we sweep Philly, we would still need Philly to lose two more games AND we'd have to sweep our remaining 6 games. How likely is that?

Does the game on Sunday count as two games or am I missing something. Do they get a 2 for 1 special if they beat us this week?

 

[Sydla]

Even swept by WAS, 4-2 in the division, the head-to-head tiebreaker over the current division leader, and 11-5 overall is still on the table. That's enough to win a division.

Or are you assuming 'swept by WAS' means we're bad enough that other losses will necessarily happen as well? That's not an unreasonable assumption, but it goes beyond the hypothetical here.

Yes, I am assuming that outside of the Washington and Eagles games, it's unlikely this team goes 6-0 over the remaining 6 games when 4 of those games are at home against a very good KC team, on the road to play Atlanta, on the road to play Oakland and home against Seattle.

Losing two games to the Skins puts you in a situation where you have left yourself no wiggle room elsewhere on the schedule. Then you definitely have to sweep Philly AND run the table on the other 6 games. Think about it that way. If you lose to Washington twice, you then have to win every game left on your schedule for a decent shot at the division. So I'll ask you............ how likely is that to happen?

 

[Trouty]

my comment is based on that this game means more for the skins than it does for the boys.

skins lose they are 0-3.
boys lose they are 1-1.

Ah, gotcha, Vi. Should’ve realized that. My bad, brother

 

[Sydla]

Does the game on Sunday count as two games or am I missing something. Do they get a 2 for 1 special if they beat us this week?

Did you read the thread before responding. This subset of discussion is born out of a post made where someone suggested that losing two games to Washington wouldn't be a death blow.

I disagree. If you lose both games to Washington, you've pretty much killed a realistic chance at winning the division.

 

[links18]

It's not even that now. Most games are just constant displays of ineptitude and incompetence.

Starting with coaching ineptitude, followed by the refs, then players who cannot even figure out the basics of game situation or field position.

 

[Idgit]

Yes, I am assuming that outside of the Washington and Eagles games, it's unlikely this team goes 6-0 over the remaining 6 games when 4 of those games are at home against a very good KC team, on the road to play Atlanta, on the road to play Oakland and home against Seattle.

Losing two games to the Skins puts you in a situation where you have left yourself no wiggle room elsewhere on the schedule. Then you definitely have to sweep Philly AND run the table on the other 6 games.

Fair enough.

I don't think we lose to the Skins the way things look right now, so I didn't assume the question meant 'if the team were actually so bad the Skins would sweep them...' I just took it as 'Say for argument the team as it currently stands were to somehow lose both Skins games...'

If we're not good enough to control the game and steal a road win in WAS this week, that is pretty bad. I'd still stick with the math, because that's how I roll, but I'd definitely understand the caterwauling that would be going on in here the rest of the way.

 

[links18]

It will matter if Dallas stays in the hunt. Much better to be 1-1 than 0-3.

Its always better to win than lose. Well, usually--there may be some late season playoff scenarios where you ptefer to lose I guess. Maybe.

 

[Fletch]

I have an idea. Let’s just focus with who’s on the plate this weekend. Long season yet.

 

[Sydla]

Fair enough.

I don't think we lose to the Skins the way things look right now, so I didn't assume the question meant 'if the team were actually so bad the Skins would sweep them...' I just took it as 'Say for argument the team as it currently stands were to somehow lose both Skins games...'

If we're not good enough to control the game and steal a road win in WAS this week, that is pretty bad. I'd still stick with the math, because that's how I roll, but I'd definitely understand the caterwauling that would be going on in here the rest of the way.

I don't think we lose two games to Washington either. Even if we split, that gives you some decent leeway elsewhere. If you lose both, you are pretty much cooked IMO.

Frankly, I think it's more likely we split with Philly and sweep Washington.