DMN Blog: Five Downs With Football Outsiders (Roy, Pac, Felix, Romo)

[bobtheflob]

Some guys run lightning quick 40's but it never translates onto the field. Some guys don't run it as quick (or on that one particular day didn't run it very quick) but blow by people on the field.

I know it's a small sample size of preseason football, but Jones sure looks like he has plenty of football speed.

 

[Chief]

Some guys run lightning quick 40's but it never translates onto the field. Some guys don't run it as quick (or on that one particular day didn't run it very quick) but blow by people on the field.

I know it's a small sample size of preseason football, but Jones sure looks like he has plenty of football speed.

Yep, I agree.

I can understand using formulas and models, but there are always going to be exceptions.

I've already seen enough to believe that Felix will be very effective in the NFL.

 

[Idgit]

Yep, I agree.

I can understand using formulas and models, but there are always going to be exceptions.

I've already seen enough to believe that Felix will be very effective in the NFL.

Wait. So you can't just divide a singled timed 40 time by a guy's body weight to see how he'll perform in the NFL?

 

[YosemiteSam]

Wait. So you can't just divide a singled timed 40 time by a guy's body weight to see how he'll perform in the NFL?

If you sprinkle it with some salt first.

 

[stealth]

coincidentally my 40 time is my body weight

 

[YosemiteSam]

coincidentally my 40 time is my body weight

My 40 times is until I'm 40. :

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Is Roy Williams really that bad in coverage?

10:44 AM Thu, Aug 21, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips

The biggest concern for Tony Romo and for the Cowboys as a whole is injury. The team has been the healthiest in football by far over the past five years, and it goes a huge way in helping to explain the team's success. If you remember the second Eagles game last year, Romo and (I believe) Andre Gurode got hurt, and although Romo stayed in the game, he really, really struggled with his mechanics and getting the ball out on time. Romo's a very talented player, but he has a risky, daredevil style and honestly, both he and the Cowboys' offense are overdue for a year full of injuries.

Such reasoning is known as the Gambler's Fallacy--the erroneous assumption that the likelihood of a certain outcome changes with repetition.

Let's assume that Joe is flipping a coin. Thus far, he's flipped the coin four times, and each time it has come up heads. Before his fifth flip, Joe reasons, "Statistically speaking, my next flip is more likely to be tails because I've gotten heads four times in a row."

Joe is incorrect. His likelihood of getting tails on the next flip is exactly the same as it was on the previous four flips--50/50. It hasn't changed simply because he's gotten heads an improbable number of times successively.

Similarly, the likelihood of the Cowboys sustaining injury does not increase simply because they've remained relatively healthy over the past few seasons. They aren't "overdue" for anything. Their injury "concerns" are precisely the same as they were last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

cute how he skewed the roy stat to fit his point

Welcome to Bill Barnwell. He's been known to do that, like all of the time.

I love the injury stat. Of course if you go into their explanation of it in Pro Football Prospectus they really don't put much of an emphasis on a person that gets injured and put on I-R for the entire year. They are more or less concerned about those players out for 3-4 games. So when Ferguson and Glenn, two starters who were practically out for the entire season, that's not as important to them as Newman missing 3 games. I tend to disagree with them on that.




YAKUZA

 

[onetrickpony]

It's certainly plausible that we're long overdue for a injury plagued season, but I also don't think it's a coincidence that the 5 years stretch of relatively injury free seasons started at the same time Parcells and Joe Jurasek completely rehauled our offseason training regiments. So I can't say it's completely chance and good luck that we've stayed this healthy.

If you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads every time, what are the odds that the next flip will come up tails?
.
.
.
.
:fact:
No matter how long the run, each flip has exactly the same odds, 50-50.

There is no karma in football and we are no more likely to have an injury plagued season this year just because we have had 5 years of relatively light injuries.

The guys from football outsiders do a pretty good job at tracking and compiling stats but their conclusions from the stats can leave a lot to be desired. Sometimes I think they need to take a good statistics course to better understand their own numbers.

You may be onto something with the Jurasek link. If his training program helps to keep players on the field, we should all bow and kiss his feet!

 

[onetrickpony]

Such reasoning is known as the Gambler's Fallacy--the erroneous assumption that the likelihood of a certain outcome changes with repetition.

Let's assume that Joe is flipping a coin. Thus far, he's flipped the coin four times, and each time it has come up heads. Before his fifth flip, Joe reasons, "Statistically speaking, my next flip is more likely to be tails because I've gotten heads four times in a row."

Joe is incorrect. His likelihood of getting tails on the next flip is exactly the same as it was on the previous four flips--50/50. It hasn't changed simply because he's gotten heads an improbable number of times successively.

Similarly, the likelihood of the Cowboys sustaining injury does not increase simply because they've remained relatively healthy over the past few seasons. They aren't "overdue" for anything. Their injury "concerns" are precisely the same as they were last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.

Exactly right. I posted almost the same thing before I read your post.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Exactly right. I posted almost the same thing before I read your post.

No problem.

Of course, I'm guilty of using the same type of reasoning when I watch football: The Cowboys have lost to such-and-such team four times in a row so they're due a win. Or, Barber is due a good game because he's had two or three consecutive mediocre outings. Or, Tony Romo has thrown five incompletions in a row; therefore, his next pass must be complete.

:laugh2:

 

[AdamJT13]

The guys from football outsiders do a pretty good job at tracking and compiling stats

Don't ever buy their game charting data unless you want that opinion to change.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Don't ever buy their game charting data unless you want that opinion to change.

What are you saying? 2.1 tackles instead of 1.4 tackles? :laugh2:

 

[AdamJT13]

What are you saying? 2.1 tackles instead of 1.4 tackles?

No, they just use the tackles from the Gamebook (who knows why).

It's all of the other things they track that aren't nearly as accurate or complete as I had hoped.

 

[FCBarca]

Myth! Myth!

I find it hilarious that so many people here will rip on a statistical analysis if it doesn't fit with what they want to hear, yet will run to the stats if they agree with their opinion.

It's called the 'clasp your hands over your ears and scream blah, blah, blah' theory

 

[FCBarca]

Some guys run lightning quick 40's but it never translates onto the field. Some guys don't run it as quick (or on that one particular day didn't run it very quick) but blow by people on the field.

I know it's a small sample size of preseason football, but Jones sure looks like he has plenty of football speed.

Well, in defense of the 'scouts', I will say that he mentioned that they used an algorithm for computing the 'speed score'...It took in more than just their straight ahead 40 time...And if the average for backs of success is higher, how is that somehow showing bias?...If anything, perhaps our own fan bias has entered into it.

I like the look of Felix but let's not get carried away with his speed...He's no CJ and he's not running past the field out there...If nothing else, I hope he can be as elusive as we need him to be since we're not going to get the CJ speed out of him

 

[silverbear]

My 40 times is until I'm 40. :

They clock my 40 time using a sundial...

 

[onetrickpony]

Don't ever buy their game charting data unless you want that opinion to change.

Thanks for the advice!

Not that they were ever in danger of getting any of my money!

 

[percyhoward]

That was true of the Cowboys in 2006, but instead of seeing their third down performance decline, instead, the Cowboys' offense improved on first and second down in 2007.

I wonder if JJ having 111 fewer carries on 1st and 2nd down had anything to do with that.

 

[AsthmaField]

The questions seemed like they were asked by someone who hates the Cowboys and were trying to make Dallas fans feel less secure about the team.

Is Felix Jones' high college YPC average really important in the pros?

Is Roy really bad in coverage?

How good will Pacman really be?

Just seems like loaded questions to me.