DMN Blog: Five Downs With Football Outsiders (Roy, Pac, Felix, Romo)

[ABQcowboyJR]

He didn't say we didn't have injuries, he's just stating that we've had far fewer than other teams.

It's certainly plausible that we're long overdue for a injury plagued season, but I also don't think it's a coincidence that the 5 years stretch of relatively injury free seasons started at the same time Parcells and Joe Jurasek completely rehauled our offseason training regiments. So I can't say it's completely chance and good luck that we've stayed this healthy.

I agree. I think that a major reason for us staying healthy is Joe Jurasek. His strength program has had a tremendous impact on our club. A winners attitude and one like the barbarians tend to keep you healthy as well.

 

[28 Joker]

Well, in defense of the 'scouts', I will say that he mentioned that they used an algorithm for computing the 'speed score'...It took in more than just their straight ahead 40 time...And if the average for backs of success is higher, how is that somehow showing bias?...If anything, perhaps our own fan bias has entered into it.

I like the look of Felix but let's not get carried away with his speed...He's no CJ and he's not running past the field out there...If nothing else, I hope he can be as elusive as we need him to be since we're not going to get the CJ speed out of him

"Let's not get carried away with his speed"...

You mean the 4.37 40 time on the Arkansas campus. Felix can run 4.3. The Cowboys knew this when they drafted him. I say that people shouldn't get so carried away with 40 times at the combine. 4.47 clearly wasn't Jones' best time. In fact, he didn't even feel the need to run the 40 again at his pro day. The film on the football field and his past clocked 40 times said it all. It was a big surprise that he didn't run faster. Nevertheless, Felix put up the second fastest 20 yard shuttle time and beat Johnson in the 3-cone drill as well. #28 out weighs Johnson by 13 pounds. Johnson's biggest attribute is his speed while Jones has the speed to burn and multiple attributes as a running back.

"He's no CJ" and "he's not running past the field out there"...

You can't be serious. Felix has plenty of speed to beat NFL linebackers and safeties. Felix Jones is a game breaker. The big plays are coming against the blitz happy NFC East.

I have some news for the Chris Johnson fans. The Rams' defense looked like Moses parting the Red Sea while Johnson made a very slight micro cut and hit the lane, so perhaps, you guys shouldn't get carried away with putting this guy on a pedestal. Some of you want to crown this guy, but Felix has to "prove it" to you.

You guys might want to know who Jake Scott and Eugene Amano are?

They are the Titans' new starting guards. Yes. I've been impressed with Chris Johnson's play in the pre-season, but he is the best weapon they have. Teams are going to man-up their corners and focus on stopping the run and stopping him.

In my opinion, Chirs Johnson isn't going to just blow through the AFC South and the Titans' schedule and "run past the field" every week.

 

[dallasfaniac]

For those interested, here's an article where he highlights weight/speed formula.

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

"Let's not get carried away with his speed"...

You mean the 4.37 40 time on the Arkansas campus. Felix can run 4.3. The Cowboys knew this when they drafted him. I say that people shouldn't get so carried away with 40 times at the combine. 4.47 clearly wasn't Jones' best time. In fact, he didn't even feel the need to run the 40 again at his pro day. The film on the football field and his past clocked 40 times said it all. It was a big surprise that he didn't run faster. Nevertheless, Felix put up the second fastest 20 yard shuttle time and beat Johnson in the 3-cone drill as well. #28 out weighs Johnson by 13 pounds. Johnson's biggest attribute is his speed while Jones has the speed to burn and multiple attributes as a running back.

"He's no CJ" and "he's not running past the field out there"...

You can't be serious. Felix has plenty of speed to beat NFL linebackers and safeties. Felix Jones is a game breaker. The big plays are coming against the blitz happy NFC East.

I have some news for the Chris Johnson fans. The Rams' defense looked like Moses parting the Red Sea while Johnson made a very slight micro cut and hit the lane, so perhaps, you guys shouldn't get carried away with putting this guy on a pedestal. Some of you want to crown this guy, but Felix has to "prove it" to you.

You guys might want to know who Jake Scott and Eugene Amano are?

They are the Titans' new starting guards. Yes. I've been impressed with Chris Johnson's play in the pre-season, but he is the best weapon they have. Teams are going to man-up their corners and focus on stopping the run and stopping him.

In my opinion, Chirs Johnson isn't going to just blow through the AFC South and the Titans' schedule and "run past the field" every week.

I like where your head is at. Could not agree more.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

FO just lost all credibility with me. How on earth can a statistician ever claim that anyone is 'due?' It just shows they have no idea what they are doing. That literally is one of the first things you learn in stats.

 

[Temo]

No, they just use the tackles from the Gamebook (who knows why).

It's all of the other things they track that aren't nearly as accurate or complete as I had hoped.

As someone who actually does game charting, I'd be interested to hear exactly what was incomplete or inaccurate.

The tackles are from the gamebook because all the charters, like me, are just part time volunteers to chart (often) their favorite teams. Then the stats are compiled and checked for variation among charters. Charters with high or low standard deviation to the average are corrected accordingly. So is that where you're going wrong? It's very hard to chart whole weeks by a few people alone. It takes me approx. an hour and a half to do a whole game. And that's with a solid year of practice.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

man, i dont like that read about Felix Jones

 

[superpunk]

I believe their stats show that we have run well to the right for the past two years.

 

[percyhoward]

I believe their stats show that we have run well to the right for the past two years.

By "well to the right" exactly how far do you mean?

 

[AdamJT13]

As someone who actually does game charting, I'd be interested to hear exactly what was incomplete or inaccurate.

The tackles are from the gamebook because all the charters, like me, are just part time volunteers to chart (often) their favorite teams. Then the stats are compiled and checked for variation among charters. Charters with high or low standard deviation to the average are corrected accordingly. So is that where you're going wrong? It's very hard to chart whole weeks by a few people alone. It takes me approx. an hour and a half to do a whole game. And that's with a solid year of practice.

I understand that all of the charting is done by volunteers, but I still was surprised when I got the game charting data from last season at how much was missing and/or inaccurate. You'd think that the FO guys would want to make sure their information is complete, let alone accurate, before they go selling it and passing it off as "facts" (or somewhat factual). They probably can get away with it most of the time, though, because so many of their stats are "adjusted" (or as you put it, "corrected") for various things, so that nobody notices when their stats don't match the actual numbers, let alone the numbers compiled by their charters.

 

[AsthmaField]

I like the look of Felix but let's not get carried away with his speed...He's no CJ and he's not running past the field out there...If nothing else, I hope he can be as elusive as we need him to be since we're not going to get the CJ speed out of him

You have GOT to be kidding.

CJ? What the **** has CJ done other than run fast at the combine? One long run through a 15 yard wide hole?

I understand that Felix has proven nothing... but by the same token, neither has Johnson.

Good Lord. You'd think CJ has been in the NFL for years and has a few pro bowls under his belt. He has done nothing yet. And didn't do that much at East Carolina, frankly.

Felix is no CJ...

Tell me Felix is no LT, and I'll agree with that. No CJ? :laugh2:

 

[DaBoys4Life]

You have GOT to be kidding.

CJ? What the **** has CJ done other than run fast at the combine? One long run through a 15 yard wide hole?

I understand that Felix has proven nothing... but by the same token, neither has Johnson.

Good Lord. You'd think CJ has been in the NFL for years and has a few pro bowls under his belt. He has done nothing yet. And didn't do that much at East Carolina, frankly.

Felix is no CJ...

Tell me Felix is no LT, and I'll agree with that. No CJ? :laugh2:

yea he didn't do much at ECU ALL american KR leading the NCAA in all purpose yards has senior season. He's down more than Felix Jones... More TD's more rushing yards more receiving yards.... I can't stand this bias for cowboy players its clear that CJ had the better college career. IF he just ran fast at the combine he wouldn't have been a 1st round pick....careful your ignorance is showing.

 

[Alexander]

I understand that all of the charting is done by volunteers, but I still was surprised when I got the game charting data from last season at how much was missing and/or inaccurate. You'd think that the FO guys would want to make sure their information is complete, let alone accurate, before they go selling it and passing it off as "facts" (or somewhat factual). They probably can get away with it most of the time, though, because so many of their stats are "adjusted" (or as you put it, "corrected") for various things, so that nobody notices when their stats don't match the actual numbers, let alone the numbers compiled by their charters.

So there is some "official" information that you compare it to? Are those the "facts"? Serious question. If so, who cares what they do?

Any type of data collection is going to have a natural amount of error to it, especially when it is completed by volunteers.

And why would they have to have a completely high standard when selling nonsense like this? If someone pays for this amateurish work when there is "official" and "correct" information to compare it to, who cares? I don't quite understand your statistical snobbishness.

 

[RainMan]

Wait. So you can't just divide a singled timed 40 time by a guy's body weight to see how he'll perform in the NFL?

Somewhere, Randal Williams is waiting for his Hall of Fame bust.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Wonder what Emmitt's SpeedScore was? Or Walter Payton's.

 

[AdamJT13]

So there is some "official" information that you compare it to? Are those the "facts"? Serious question. If so, who cares what they do?

Any type of data collection is going to have a natural amount of error to it, especially when it is completed by volunteers.

And why would they have to have a completely high standard when selling nonsense like this? If someone pays for this amateurish work when there is "official" and "correct" information to compare it to, who cares? I don't quite understand your statistical snobbishness.

It's "snobbish" to expect a source that charges for much of its information and is given credence by ESPN, FoxSports, the DMN and other media outlets to have complete and accurate information? I can understand if something is difficult to determine, but when someone simply neglects to mark down what happens and the people who sell it don't bother to find out, that credibility disappears.

But I suppose you knew all along that Football Outsiders' information was "nonsense" and "amateurish"?

 

[Idgit]

And why would they have to have a completely high standard when selling nonsense like this? If someone pays for this amateurish work when there is "official" and "correct" information to compare it to, who cares? I don't quite understand your statistical snobbishness.

If they sold it as 'data' and not 'information' you might have a point. It's not snobbishness if there are good practical reasons to prefer one product over another.

Personally, I'm not going to take the time to compare football data sources, so I like hearing from multiple reliable sources which information is accurate and which is untrustworthy.

 

[cowboys2233]

He was giving a rate of efficiency percentage, not an accumulative total ... so number of snaps isn't really a factor.

That's just naive. A QB who jumps in a completes 3 out of 4 passes has a 75% completion percentage, but how can you possibly compare that to a guy who has played the entire season?

To say the number of snaps isn't really a factor is funny stuff, it is one of THE most critical factors. It's called "sample size" and without a big enough one, none of this stuff is valid.

The guy who wrote this garbage is a total idiot who shouldn't be playing with statistics. What is this speed to weight ratio crap? That's just funny stuff.

 

[FCBarca]

You have GOT to be kidding.

CJ? What the **** has CJ done other than run fast at the combine? One long run through a 15 yard wide hole?

I understand that Felix has proven nothing... but by the same token, neither has Johnson.

Good Lord. You'd think CJ has been in the NFL for years and has a few pro bowls under his belt. He has done nothing yet. And didn't do that much at East Carolina, frankly.

Felix is no CJ...

Tell me Felix is no LT, and I'll agree with that. No CJ? :laugh2:

We'll see how they turn out, I guess...You seem to get all bent out of shape and a chuckle comparing Felix and CJ but seem to be just sober enough to compare Felix to LT??

Let's not forget the premise behind drafting Felix coming straight from the mouths of those doing the drafting...'Complimentary back'...They went with a guy who was going to compliment their starter rather than draft a guy that might be an every down guy...By their own admission they are saying that Felix is not going to be taking the starter's role...Not sure how that same scenario couldn't have played out for a guy like CJ...And early on, looks like the versatility isn't something that Felix has the market cornered on...Titans intend to use CJ in A LOT of ways.

And did nothing at ECU?...Uhh, how about nearly 7,000 all purpose yardage?...Does Felix have a similar resume?

Just 2 games of preseason but impressive stuff from both, except CJ does more.


Game 1 – Felix

Rushing: 6 for 32 yards, long 19 yards

Receiving: 2 for 29 yards, long 28 yards – reception


Game 1 – CJ

Rushing: 6 for 77 yards, long 66 – 1 TD

Receiving: 1 for 13 yards


Game 2 - CJ

Rushing: 8 for 46 yards, long 15

Returns: 1 for 30 yards


Game 2 - Felix

Rushing: 3 for 17 yards, long 11

Receiving: 1 for 27 yards, reception



Totals in 2 games

Felix

9 for 49 yards, 5.4 avg

105 all purpose yardage


CJ

14 for 123 yards, nearly 9 avg, 1 TD

166 all purpose yardage

 

[Temo]

I understand that all of the charting is done by volunteers, but I still was surprised when I got the game charting data from last season at how much was missing and/or inaccurate. You'd think that the FO guys would want to make sure their information is complete, let alone accurate, before they go selling it and passing it off as "facts" (or somewhat factual). They probably can get away with it most of the time, though, because so many of their stats are "adjusted" (or as you put it, "corrected") for various things, so that nobody notices when their stats don't match the actual numbers, let alone the numbers compiled by their charters.

I'm not accusing you or anything, or defending FO. I have no horse in that race, so to speak.

All I'm asking, and you didn't answer, is exactly what was inaccurate in the charts. I mostly volunteered so I could do my own charts using their play-by-play for cowboys games and keep it for my own records. I have pretty great confidence in my own charting, so that's never been an issue for me.

I never bought their publicly distributed charts, because the only thing I'm really interested in I chart for myself. So I was just curious what was wrong with the charts that they sell, since I can't see them for myself.