Coming out of HS, many colleges that were seriously interested in him wanted him to play safety. The only semi-“name” program that was interested in him as a QB was North Dakota State - a good FCS school but certainly not power 5 competition. He played pretty well but of course he wasn’t playing Alabama or Ohio State. Most of the athletes he competed against in college will never play a down of NFL football.
I'm aware that he went to NDSU because they were the only ones willing to commit to giving him a shot at QB. But that's all I'm aware of, and a quick survey of recruiting sites seems to indicate he didn't even go on any official visits. Did he himself say that he was told he would play safety? Because I'd heard nothing that specific. I'm only aware that his HS coach said he always thought TL's position in college would be RB because his legs were his best attribute.
I doubt you intended it as a shot, but NDSU, let's give them credit, is more than just "a good FCS school."
They are the irrefutable most accomplished FCS program ever. "Certainly not power 5 competition" is a true statement. But what a lot of people miss is that there are ways to run statistical comparisons even between FBS and FCS teams. The Sagarin Ratings have been published for decades, and there are others who have done similar work.
For 2019, Lance's big year at NDSU,
only 24 members of autonomous conferences rated higher than NDSU, and
only 6 members of non-autonomous conferences.
(Personal pet peeve... we call them "power" conferences, when in fact, only a handful of any given conference given that label actually plot out statistically better than the best "group of" conferences... complete ESPN marketing label that unfortunately stuck decades ago, making the pursuit of due regard for the Boise States of the world undeservingly more difficult.) https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2019-2/2019-2/college-football-team-ratings-2019/
Your point is well taken on this, too, but most of the athletes that any NFL player played against in college... those from FBS autonomous conference members, too... will never play a down of NFL football. Perhaps this is why there are so many NFL (and NBA) busts even among those who go on the first and second day. It's just hard to assess these guys until you get them into an NFL camp.
Well, that, and the fact that these are kids transitioning into becoming adults. There's so much going on physically and cognitively and emotionally/psychologically and socially.
he does not possess great overall speed and ability to make cuts.
Speed?
I don't know why people don't seem to be all that aware of this, but they don't.
https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-d...n-40-at-pro-day-leaning-on-tape-to-show-speed
Nothing more needs to be said until he gets old enough that we start having reason to believe he's lost a step. Lance is fast. He just is. Now, he may take some time getting to 5th gear--I can't speak to that. But his top speed is exceptional.
Ability to make cuts, we agree, if by that you mean he's not going to make a lot of guys miss. I said as much earlier in the thread. But what he does possess, as I said above, is he has an Emmitt Smith-like instinct to wiggle just enough that defenders rarely actually meet him square... and because of his size and strength, the first guy doesn't get him to the ground, and often rather just bounces off him. I've watched every single run he had at NDSU, every run he's had in SF. Watch and see if you don't end up with the same conclusion.
There are other starting-caliber RBs in the NFL who have these same traits as TL.
Today’s NFL RBs also have to be able to pick up blitzers and pass rushers who are bigger and I can’t see him making that kind of learning leap.
Until I see a guy do it, I'm inclined to think he probably cannot do it at an NFL level. So, I'll give you this one, with the caveat that it's not a question of size... TL put in a room of RBs you respect as good pass protectors would blend in just fine. He has the measurables, but I'm a skeptic--like I'd be a skeptic about anyone--that he would prove to be a good pass protection guy.
Could Trey Lance’s athleticism translate to RB? IMO not a chance.
Clearly, I disagree. Based on all I've watched, it could.
Could. We'll never know, but it's the off-season of the off-season, so it has been for me a cool thought experiment worth discussing.
Appreciate you being one of the limited number in the thread who spoke to the actual precise topic of the OP. Thx.
