Draft Musings - March 29

[DBOY3141]

And sometimes, I'm not sure that people understand just how valuable a franchise quarterback is.

Especially in an era where Sam Bradford makes $18 million for one year

Or Kirk Cousins is making $19 million for one year.

Or Brock Osweiler is getting $37 million guaranteed for 7 games worth of tape.

Hopefully, you can get a quarterback with the #4 overall pick. If not, you can go back to the days of being one of the have-not's in this league and scrambling around after scraps, hoping that something eventually works.

Back to the days when this franchise was signing guys like Tony Banks, Ryan Leaf, or trying to cheat the system with failed baseball players like Quincy Carter, Chad Hutchinson or Drew Henson.

Not good times.

But they have a process this time around.

 

[gimmesix]

Sometimes I'm not sure people understand just how valuable the 4th overall pick is.

It literally is worth TWO 2016 1st rounders in the 18-20 range.

Yes. I hope the team doesn't draft this high again and I certainly don't want the team to waste the pick.

All I care about is that the team is so prepared for the players who will be available at the No. 4 pick that it is certain to them that there is no way that player can fail.

If that's not Bosa, then I don't want him. If it's not Ramsey, then I don't want him. Same with Wentz or Goff.

If Tunsil is there and he's the only player Dallas feels certain about, then I'm OK with the team taking him even if it's less of a position of need.

 

[DFWJC]

And sometimes, I'm not sure that people understand just how valuable a franchise quarterback is.

Especially in an era where Sam Bradford makes $18 million for one year

Or Kirk Cousins is making $19 million for one year.

Or Brock Osweiler is getting $37 million guaranteed for 7 games worth of tape.

Hopefully, you can get a quarterback with the #4 overall pick. If not, you can go back to the days of being one of the have-not's in this league and scrambling around after scraps, hoping that something eventually works.

Back to the days when this franchise was signing guys like Tony Banks, Ryan Leaf, or trying to cheat the system with failed baseball players like Quincy Carter, Chad Hutchinson or Drew Henson.

Not good times.

That's true too.

 

[Stash]

But they have a process this time around.

Sure they do. 5 years plus into it and still no measurable, consistant results. .500

 

[Stash]

That's true too.

Credit to you for being able to see that part of it too.

 

[gimmesix]

Why is it "smart" to follow the advice of this bunch? What gives them the credibility to go against the grain of the consensus opinions on the top two quarterbacks?

The people in that building haven't been able to figure out the quarterback position since just about forever. Everything they have decided upon at that spot has been utterly, totally and absolutely wrong. If they don't like the quarterbacks, it only reinforces my belief that they should draft one of them at #4.

I've seen no consensus that either Goff or Wentz is worth the No. 4 pick. And consensus doesn't really mean much since a lot of the draftniks out there are just parroting others.

 

[Stash]

I've seen no consensus that either Goff or Wentz is worth the No. 4 pick. And consensus doesn't really mean much since a lot of the draftniks out there are just parroting others.

I'd look again. Few if any that I have seen have either Goff or Wentz getting past pick #7. If you have other reputable sources, I'd be glad to see them.

I consider a league-wide consensus more valuable than whatever the guys that brought us Dustin Vaughan, Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel think about things.

 

[gimmesix]

I'd look again. Few if any that I have seen have either Goff or Wentz getting past pick #7. If you have other reputable sources, I'd be glad to see them.

I consider a league-wide consensus more valuable than whatever the guys that brought us Dustin Vaughan, Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel think about things.

Are you talking about draft boards or are you talking about prospect ratings?

I don't believe Goff will get past pick No. 7 either, but not because he's considered the seventh-best prospect in the draft.

One site I just looked at (Daniel Jeremiah) has Wentz rated 7th and Goff 8th. Lance Zierlein had Goff eighth and Wentz 30th on Jan. 19 (don't know if his opinion has changed since then).

SI.com on Feb. 29 had Goff 15th and Wentz 40th. BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1 on March 16 had Wentz 7th and Goff 11th. CBS Sports had Goff 5th and Wentz 7th. Ourlads has Wentz 6th and Goff 10th.

Scouts Inc., who I've been using in my mocks, had Wentz 9th and Goff 10th on March 8.

That's just from a cursory look.

 

[CowboyChris]

just going by what we have done in FA so far this offseason, all indications are that we will have to draft a QB, if the goal wasn't to take one real high as in #4 overall, we would've signed a vet by now. i seriously doubt the Jones boys have forgotten how terrible it was last year without Romo. or do i have this all wrong?

 

[stilltheguru88]

have we met with Buckner?

Well were the first team to meet him. The first

 

[DBOY3141]

just going by what we have done in FA so far this offseason, all indications are that we will have to draft a QB, if the goal wasn't to take one real high as in #4 overall, we would've signed a vet by now. i seriously doubt the Jones boys have forgotten how terrible it was last year without Romo. or do i have this all wrong?

I think Linehan/Garrett are fine with Kellen Moore until a later round guy can be developed.

 

[DBOY3141]

Well were the first team to meet him. The first

Sorry. I meant after the combine. I know we met him at the combine, but haven't seen if we have since. We've met with Lynch like 3 times.

 

[RS12]

I think Linehan/Garrett are fine with Kellen Moore until a later round guy can be developed.

That means they are fine with losing. He isnt an NFL QB.

 

[CowboyChris]

I think Linehan/Garrett are fine with Kellen Moore until a later round guy can be developed.

really? you mean the same guys who were "fine" with Weeden & Cassell until we finally had to put Moore in there cause it was so bad.

 

[Stash]

Are you talking about draft boards or are you talking about prospect ratings?

All of the above.

I don't believe Goff will get past pick No. 7 either, but not because he's considered the seventh-best prospect in the draft.

Then why is it? Because everyone else is wrong and you personally are right?

One site I just looked at (Daniel Jeremiah) has Wentz rated 7th and Goff 8th. Lance Zierlein had Goff eighth and Wentz 30th on Jan. 19 (don't know if his opinion has changed since then).

So if both have Goff rated at worst 8th, would you consider it wrong to draft him at #4? Especially given this team's current situation at the position?

SI.com on Feb. 29 had Goff 15th and Wentz 40th. BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1 on March 16 had Wentz 7th and Goff 11th. CBS Sports had Goff 5th and Wentz 7th. Ourlads has Wentz 6th and Goff 10th.

Scouts Inc., who I've been using in my mocks, had Wentz 9th and Goff 10th on March 8.

That's just from a cursory look.

I appreciate you coming back with sources. And other than what looks like the oddball outlier from SI.com, both quarterbacks look like consensus top 10 talents, at worst. And if that's the case, I'm more than fine with getting a quarterback talent considered top 10 with the #4 overall pick.

The fact is that a team can fill each and every other need they have via free agency if they have the money. But when it comes to quarterback? You can't. Your money's no good there. You could have $30 million burning a hole in your pocket and you still couldn't get one.

Quarterback is a commodity like no other in football. You either get one, or you don't. You either have one, or you don't.

 

[CWR]

Except if Jones were to take Wentz or Goff at 4, that's really not overdrafting a QB as by almost all accounts, both are considered Top 10 worthy picks.

Nope that's not how it works around here. If Jones takes him and satisfies the QB @4 crowd (which wouldn't bother me) then Goff damn well better succeed. If he doesn't than yes Jones is an idiot. However, if Jones passes on Goff and he goes on to be a miserable failure, well Jones will still suck. Haha, he can't win as far as some are concerned.

 

[ConceptCoop]

Sometimes I'm not sure people understand just how valuable the 4th overall pick is.

It literally is worth TWO 2016 1st rounders in the 18-20 range.

Not all classes are created equal. The one player who would go top 4 in most classes will go #1. I'm not sure we'll be able to get chart value this year.

 

[Kaiser]

I consider a league-wide consensus more valuable than whatever the guys that brought us Dustin Vaughan, Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel think about things.

The cost of all three of those guys was trading down about 45 spots in 2017 from the 5th round to the 7th round. Its apples and oranges to compare two backups and a developmental guy - two of whom came for free - to a first or second round pick.

 

[Stash]

The cost of all three of those guys was trading down about 45 spots in 2017 from the 5th round to the 7th round. Its apples and oranges to compare two backups and a developmental guy - two of whom came for free - to a first or second round pick.

I'm not referring to cost, but quality. The fact that the people inside that building thought that any of those guys was a potential answer is an indictment of their ability to judge talent at the position.

 

[DFWJC]

Not all classes are created equal. The one player who would go top 4 in most classes will go #1. I'm not sure we'll be able to get chart value this year.

You may be right, but I have skimmed the last several years and have yet to see a single trade not involving active players that has not matched the chart within about 90%.
That even includes the RG3 trade...where the Rams "overpaid" by roughly 6%.
Most are even closer to 95+% to the chart.
It's kind of shocking when you do the numbers.

Anyway, this class is not considered weak by historical standards.