Draft Musings - March 29

[gimmesix]

Then why is it? Because everyone else is wrong and you personally are right?

OK, you've got to be kidding me on this. Players are overdrafted every year, especially quarterbacks. Sometimes that comes back to bite teams, sometimes it works out.

Let me ask you this: Would you be fine with Dallas drafting Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd at No. 4?

If your answer is no. Why?

If your answer is that Dallas would be reaching, then why would you want Dallas to instead draft Goff, who is rated by some lower than Floyd?

I appreciate you coming back with sources. And other than what looks like the oddball outlier from SI.com, both quarterbacks look like consensus top 10 talents, at worst. And if that's the case, I'm more than fine with getting a quarterback talent considered top 10 with the #4 overall pick.

The fact is that a team can fill each and every other need they have via free agency if they have the money. But when it comes to quarterback? You can't. Your money's no good there. You could have $30 million burning a hole in your pocket and you still couldn't get one.

Quarterback is a commodity like no other in football. You either get one, or you don't. You either have one, or you don't.

I agree that both QBs generally seem to fall within the top 10. The question for me is where is the drop-off in talent considered to be. If you have four superior players, then I don't want to take a player who just falls into the solid starter category. If you have no superior players and everyone in the top 10 falls into solid starter category, then I'm fine with taking the No. 10-ranked player.

In other words, I don't want Dallas to take Johnny Manziel (the 10th overall prospect in 2014) when it could have Sammy Watkins (the fourth overall prospect in 2014), according to Mayock.

 

[ConceptCoop]

You may be right, but I have skimmed the last several years and have yet to see a single trade not involving active players that has not matched the chart within about 90%.
That even includes the RG3 trade...where the Rams "overpaid" by roughly 6%.
Most are even closer to 95+% to the chart.
It's kind of shocking when you do the numbers.

I'd happily take 90-95% of chart value this year, personally.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

You may be right, but I have skimmed the last several years and have yet to see a single trade not involving active players that has not matched the chart within about 90%.
That even includes the RG3 trade...where the Rams "overpaid" by roughly 6%.
Most are even closer to 95+% to the chart.
It's kind of shocking when you do the numbers.

Anyway, this class is not considered weak by historical standards.

Speaking of things we've never seen, no team has ever been dumb enough to use a #4 pick on a backup quarterback... fortunately it looks like that will continue.

 

[percyhoward]

really? you mean the same guys who were "fine" with Weeden & Cassell until we finally had to put Moore in there cause it was so bad.

FWIW, Linehan wanted to start Moore against the Falcons in week 3.

 

[Mr Cowboy]

And sometimes, I'm not sure that people understand just how valuable a franchise quarterback is.

Especially in an era where Sam Bradford makes $18 million for one year

Or Kirk Cousins is making $19 million for one year.

Or Brock Osweiler is getting $37 million guaranteed for 7 games worth of tape.

Hopefully, you can get a quarterback with the #4 overall pick. If not, you can go back to the days of being one of the have-not's in this league and scrambling around after scraps, hoping that something eventually works.

Back to the days when this franchise was signing guys like Tony Banks, Ryan Leaf, or trying to cheat the system with failed baseball players like Quincy Carter, Chad Hutchinson or Drew Henson.

Not good times.

Yeah, but Bosa will be racking up 4-6 sacks per year, that will make it worth it.

 

[Gaede]

I've had a feeling the team loves Buckner. I think their unofficial board would be something like Tunsil, Ramsey, Buckner, Bosa

 

[Stash]

OK, you've got to be kidding me on this. Players are overdrafted every year, especially quarterbacks. Sometimes that comes back to bite teams, sometimes it works out.

Let me ask you this: Would you be fine with Dallas drafting Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd at No. 4?

If your answer is no. Why?

If your answer is that Dallas would be reaching, then why would you want Dallas to instead draft Goff, who is rated by some lower than Floyd?

Firstly, I'd stop looking at any site that said that. That's problem #1.

Secondly, I don't feel that all positions can and should be judged equally. Again I would invite anyone to look at what us happening around the league.

I agree that both QBs generally seem to fall within the top 10. The question for me is where is the drop-off in talent considered to be. If you have four superior players, then I don't want to take a player who just falls into the solid starter category. If you have no superior players and everyone in the top 10 falls into solid starter category, then I'm fine with taking the No. 10-ranked player.

In other words, I don't want Dallas to take Johnny Manziel (the 10th overall prospect in 2014) when it could have Sammy Watkins (the fourth overall prospect in 2014), according to Mayock.

I would say that both of these guys have far less questions around them than Manziel did, and again reiterate that QB is far more valuable than any other position.

Just my opinion.

 

[Stash]

I've had a feeling the team loves Buckner. I think their unofficial board would be something like Tunsil, Ramsey, Buckner, Bosa

That's called a nightmare. Wake up!!!!!

 

[Verdict]

One of my good friends growing up works for Yahoo Sports and I occasionally Skype him every now and then when life affords the pleasure. Here's some draft snippets for you of things he's heard during his daily activities. As always, these are just rumors and not the gospel:

Don’t believe any of the Ramsey -> Titans talk. They’ve locked in on Tunsil at #1 and he’s basically their pick. He didn’t need to run a 40 as the Titans could care less. Mariota needs a bookend and he’s a no-brainer.

Wentz is going to be a Brown. He checks every box for them. He’s tailor-made for the AFC North and they’re prepared to stake their future on him.

Draft really begins at #3 with San Diego and their pick is basically for sale. A case could be made that the next 5-6 picks could go in any order and San Diego is looking to maximize value vs. target anyone.

Dallas is a wildcard. Seems attached to either Bosa, Ramsey or Buckner at #4, would guess that Ramsey would be their guy if that occurs. Thinks they would trade out to the teens if it meant grabbing some more premium picks.

Goff is really polarizing. Teams either love him or want him to stay far away. Thinks he could slip into the teens come draft day.

A lot of teams view Derrick Henry as a one-contract guy, don’t think he’s got a lot of mileage on the tires because of his running style. Some skepticism of drafting him too high if you might only get 4-5 productive years out of him.

Jaylon Smith is being removed from some team’s boards entirely. Thinks that a team will take him in the second as the talent is there, but major concerns that he’ll only be a shell of the guy in college.

The Rams are bearish on Foles amounting to anything. Paxton Lynch wouldn’t get passed them as Kroenke wants to make a splash into the LA market.

Closing thought: Dallas won’t take a QB until the third day at best. Outside of Wentz/Goff, the class is full of mediocre talent and that JJ’s the type to kick the can down the road, take a prospect that might need some work in a valiant effort to say that they’re addressing the problem while really just playing the lottery.

All of that sounds pretty much spot on, and not a surprise.

 

[Gaede]

That's called a nightmare. Wake up!!!!!

Possibly there is a Qb in there though. I don't expect the team likes Goff because of his slight frame.

 

[DFWJC]

Speaking of things we've never seen, no team has ever been dumb enough to use a #4 pick on a backup quarterback... fortunately it looks like that will continue.

That would be a first

 

[DFWJC]

I'd happily take 90-95% of chart value this year, personally.

me too..grudgingly
and if there's no one at 4 that they love

 

[phildadon86]

I just fear that Jones truly believes Romo is good for 4-5 more years and as such, they craft a draft plan that dings the QBs in lieu of positional players as if his starting QB is actually a 26 year old about to enter the prime, healthy years of his life.

What bothers me is that with the spread offense now being the most used in college, by the time Romo is done (in JJs) eyes, the QBs coming out wont be NFL ready, at all.

 

[Dhragon]

I doubt any scout

Nope that's not how it works around here. If Jones takes him and satisfies the QB @4 crowd (which wouldn't bother me) then Goff damn well better succeed. If he doesn't than yes Jones is an idiot. However, if Jones passes on Goff and he goes on to be a miserable failure, well Jones will still suck. Haha, he can't win as far as some are concerned.

I doubt most fans would say Jerry sucks if he doesn't pick Goff and Goff busts. Especially if whatever player they pick becomes a probowl quality player (which he should if he's picked at #4). QB at #4 fans will just not bring up the topic anymore is all and find other reasons Jerry sucks

But if we could have gotten Goff and he becomes a top QB in the league in a few years, then yes - all the Jones clan and Garrett as well deserve the full force of our wrath as we trot out a Moore-type QB yet again after Romo retires.

 

[Dhragon]

What bothers me is that with the spread offense now being the most used in college, by the time Romo is done (in JJs) eyes, the QBs coming out wont be NFL ready, at all.

True dat!

More and more QBs will absolutely need time to learn on the bench as the NFL vs College QB position gets farther and farther apart. We could be at the top of the curve on this if we have the foresight to get Wentz/Goff at #4 if able.

 

[Sydla]

Depends on who you ask. Some have had Wentz rated as a late first-round prospect and some even in the second round (although I think by all accounts, that was before the draft workout season started and most have him now as a top-tier prospect).

As far as Goff goes, the rating for him seems to be all over the place — from the top QB in the draft to at least middle of the first round. The original post probably hit it on the head with him ... some really like him and some don't. We'll eventually find out who's wrong on that.

If Dallas doesn't really like him, though, it shouldn't draft him.

The problem is that the Cowboys have given some indication that it doesn't matter where they have these guys ranked, they might simply not even consider a QB at 4 due to some bizarre belief that Romo is going to play until he's 65 years old.

Hyperbole aside, I know some here will say that if Dallas passes on a QB at 4 it will be because they didn't think one was worth that high a pick but it's equally likely that the Cowboys also thought the QBs were worthy of that pick but given they believe Romo is a viable option for another half decade, they passed on the QB and went with best positional player to build around Romo.

Given how this organization thinks and acts, I tend to believe they'll ding a QB in their rankings because they simply don't think they need one.

 

[Aven8]

Do they really like Buckner that much?

I don't see why. They have the same player, and possibly better player in Irving, that they stole last year.

 

[jnday]

Wentz going to Cleveland is going to create such upheaval... It will be epic.

Then not selecting Goff at #4... Will take that to unprecedented levels.

I disagree . I fully expect Dallas to be short-sighted and draft some guy that will have no impact or they will trade back and get several average players. I have give up on them finding quality players after the 2nd round on a consistent level. I really am approaching this draft with little hope. i don't get disappointed that way.

 

[Avery]

I think Jerry has no problem taking a QB in the first round.

I think Jerry has a problem taking a QB at #4.

If the opportunity presented itself for moving back into the 20's for Lynch, I could see that occurring.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

That's called a nightmare. Wake up!!!!!

Agreed.

Of all the guys that are in say the top-10, Bucker is the last guy I would want the Cowboys to draft.