Elliott's going to average 4.5 YPC

[John813]

Dallas ran the ball 468 times last year. 27.5 times a game on average.
For just running backs, they ran it 370 times or 21.7 times a game.

Pollard led the team with 252 carries, and obviously, he's gone.
Outside of Pollard leaving it's still the same backfield(top3) with Rico, Vaughn returning (89 and 23 carries respectively).

Injuries aside, I sort of see the same split between the top 3 running backs. Pollard got the ball 68% of all running plays to an RB.
Maybe you could see it drop down to 50-60%, but Zeke will still get the majority of the carries. Even with the dysfunctional Pats offense, he still saw 184 carries.
Both Pollard and Dowdle finished the season at 4.0/4.1 YPC.

With a healthier Steele, Martin being Martin and Tyler at LG year 3 it would take a noticeable downgrade at LT and center to see a dramatic drop in the running production, something that was way below what we've become accustomed to. Zeke is no spring chicken, but 4.0(3.8-4.1) wouldn't shock me. 4.5ypc would be impressive as the last time Zeke did that was 2019.

 

[Joe Realist]

No way he averages that. He will likely show up out of shape, is slower, and lucky to get 500 yards.

 

[Mr_437]

But could 2019 Zeke?

That would be awesome. The recent trash can video is the best yet.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Dallas ran the ball 468 times last year. 27.5 times a game on average.
For just running backs, they ran it 370 times or 21.7 times a game.

Pollard led the team with 252 carries, and obviously, he's gone.
Outside of Pollard leaving it's still the same backfield(top3) with Rico, Vaughn returning (89 and 23 carries respectively).

Injuries aside, I sort of see the same split between the top 3 running backs. Pollard got the ball 68% of all running plays to an RB.
Maybe you could see it drop down to 50-60%, but Zeke will still get the majority of the carries. Even with the dysfunctional Pats offense, he still saw 184 carries.
Both Pollard and Dowdle finished the season at 4.0/4.1 YPC.

With a healthier Steele, Martin being Martin and Tyler at LG year 3 it would take a noticeable downgrade at LT and center to see a dramatic drop in the running production, something that was way below what we've become accustomed to. Zeke is no spring chicken, but 4.0(3.8-4.1) wouldn't shock me. 4.5ypc would be impressive as the last time Zeke did that was 2019.

OP admitted he was being a bit facetious (okay...MORE than a bit!).

We all know zeke won;t get 4.5 on any big amount of carries. He doesn;t have to. There are times you do need those 3 yards for a td and who else you give it too?

Blocking will be of help too. And of course he's gonna get some receiving targets too.

 

[Vegas_Cowboy]

 

[conner01]

anyone want to go do the research and see how many rushing touchdowns we had from the running back group last year compared to zeke's 12 the year before?? He's still better in the short yardage and the goal line and as a blocker than anybody did last year without him... I am curious at how many running backs last year scored a touchdown like how many touchdowns total not by the quarterback not by trick plays behind the line of scrimmage just the running backs..

His 800 yards and his 12 touchdowns we're being dismissed as washed and it still was probably better than anyone did last year in my opinion... And everybody including yourself acting like 3.8 yards per carry is something to sneeze at listen he's a power back got a lot of mileage on him but Najee Harris over in Pittsburgh his career average and this is a young man that was supposed to be really good in this league it's 3.9 yards per carry Eddie George pretty much averaged 3.5 yards per carry his entire career we need to get off the short yardage power backs yards per carry average if he's moving the chains he's getting first downs if he can score he can block if he can wear down the defense he can be an asset and yeah 11-12 touches a game,, we're not asking them to carry this entire offense like we did before..

On the goal line he’s still really good. He knows how to contort his body or find that little seam. He’s also a really good blocker which if we start a rookie LT and C may be important. I just hope they don’t think he can do what he did earlier in his career. He’s lost a step which is understandable and he’s too slow to the LOS. Use him short yardage, goal line, blocking and get him 8-10 touches

 

[gimmesix]

Zeke has always been a fan favorite; so if you’re Jerry, there is no downside from a public relations perspective and maybe there are a multitude of fans, not necessarily the stat geeks, who aren’t aware of Zeke’s physical decline over the years as they remember him when he was a stud RB for the Cowboys.
I think this signing is more about appeasing fans than improving the run game; those of us who follow players know his time is done…simply looking at him as a red zone, short-yardage, between the tackles runner who can help with blitz pick-ups. His presence won’t strike fear into run defenders.

I don't think Jerry views him the same as fans view him. Of course, Jerry is delusional.

 

[gimmesix]

Taking practice snaps at center is very different than actually having played center, especially when making the jump to the NFL. Everything I've seen and heard about Beebe make me think he can make the transition, but expecting to be as quick as many fans are talking is unrealistic. Adding multiple pieces to the OL takes time for vets to gel and become a cohesive unit, but adding two rookies making position changes is especially unrealistic. Adding Zeke may be more about adding some protection for the QB, since he blocks so well while the OL goes through it's learning curve.

I think with the new players this OL can eventually become a top unit and we may see flashes of it this season, but I do not have any expectations that it will be consistent. Zeke's job should be short yardage and pick up blocks.

I think that's fair. I'm just stating what I think will happen. It's not an easy transition, so we'll see. I do agree that it will take some time to jell as a unit.

 

[gimmesix]

Gotta call it how I see it. Witnessing this preseason was like watching my lawn wilt. That's how wild it's been, these days!

That reminds me. I need to mow mine. It's pretty wild at the moment.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

I think that's fair. I'm just stating what I think will happen. It's not an easy transition, so we'll see. I do agree that it will take some time to jell as a unit.

Might be amain reason for zeke. We abused him as a blocker before, we can do it some more.

 

[gimmesix]

Y’all just say words sometimes…

Everyone on here says words ... unless they are just lurkers.

 

[gimmesix]

That’s a wild prediction and I sure hope you are right. But I think the mega millions have better odds lol

Probably. That's why I went out on a limb. Some take it so seriously, though.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Zeke has always been a fan favorite; so if you’re Jerry, there is no downside from a public relations perspective and maybe there are a multitude of fans, not necessarily the stat geeks, who aren’t aware of Zeke’s physical decline over the years as they remember him when he was a stud RB for the Cowboys.
I think this signing is more about appeasing fans than improving the run game; those of us who follow players know his time is done…simply looking at him as a red zone, short-yardage, between the tackles runner who can help with blitz pick-ups. His presence won’t strike fear into run defenders.

I dunno about that. He can still pa k a punch if he can get some steps going.

 

[gimmesix]

I bet he does this year he's being criticized in the media I'm sure his own owners have stressed the importance and to boot is on a one year lame duck rule,

if he wants to win to keep his job,

he's going to need to find a way to make the run game work, why don't he refer to his coaching staff between the offensive lineman coaches, the running backs coach ,the run game coordinator etc

I mean hell go ask Mike Zimmer how you beat the defense with a good run game how about be better.. Or you probably gonna be out of the league... You know how fans that stressed the importance of team game ,I mean it's the same thing with the coaching staff, they need to get together as a group and figure this **** out...

Considering what we have done in the run game, I'm not sure how important McCarthy thinks it is. We do seem to want to get tougher on the line, though.

 

[CCBoy]

Offensive lines can certainly make a difference in a back's performance, but it's hard for me to blame the line for Elliott's 2022 performance when Pollard averaged 5.2. Now, I posted elsewhere where Spagnola blamed the line, particularly losing Steele for several games. I think there's some truth to that since both Elliott and Pollard's averages went down at that point, but I think it has been the knee injuries that caused his decline in 2021 and 2022. There's a direct correlation there if you look at the numbers. Of course, injuries aren't something that get better with age. They are likely just part of who he is as a player at this point in his career. So even if he does manage to start out strong, I wouldn't be surprised to see an injury bring him back down to the level he's been at the last couple of years (and really since the latter half of 2021).

Why did Pollard then 'fall from grace' himself?

 

[gimmesix]

Sorry, man, but there is little difference in those predictions. 0% chance he averages 10.1 ypc. And .0001% he averages 4.5 ypc, unless the NFL changes the rules and only allows 7 players on defense.

I think you are pulling those percentages out of your butt, much like I did with my prediction.

 

[gimmesix]

Might be amain reason for zeke. We abused him as a blocker before, we can do it some more.

I don't think that is the main reason. I think the main reason is we've got no one else who has proven he can be a starting running back in this league. Zeke was about as cheap of a proven starter as we were going to find, with good reason.

 

[NorthTexan95]

My prediction: Zek rushes for week one for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Headlines claim that he's back! Then he averages 2.8 yards a carry for the remainder of the year.

 

[CCBoy]

Nah, older players have to take care of their bodies. I think Elliott figured that out before the 2021 season. He got his playing weight down, worked on his quickness and he looked like he started the season like he was heading for his best season in years. Unfortunately, the injuries hit (a knee sprain, bruised ribs, a knee strain, a PCL tear) and took the steam out of his game. He never was a speed back but he pretty much lost any ability to win on outside runs. Defenses knew that and pinched down against him between the tackles. We should expect them to do the same now, so any success he has is going to depend a lot on how strong our interior blocking is. Think of it a bit like Philly's tush push. Teams know it is coming but have trouble stopping it because of the blocking/execution. If our interior line can execute, then our running game can be effective. Now, I don't know if it can be effective enough for Elliott to average 4.5, but I'm sticking with my prediction despite all the naysayers.

That's upon scheme and the new offensive line now...

 

[AyeAtey]

At 240lbs and that OL, Zeke will pound the defense into submission!